Hairyducked Idiot

I'd lean towards being cautious with him, mostly because I remember what happened with Prior. But that's not an objectively good reason. I haven't seen a really convincing argument either way.

I don't think either side of this argument are actually sitting down and making estimates of the risks vs. rewards involved. It looks like a whole lot of "well, that sounds about right to me." Someone plug some numbers into an expected value formula, for nerd's sake. Like the one where Meph proved that trading for Jake Peavy was worth 2 championships in expected value.

Off the top of my head, I like Soler, Baez, Almora, Vizcaino, Villanueva, Candelario, Vogelbach and Alcantara. Jackson and Vitters still technically are prospects, right? And I never know where to rank the really low minors arms, but there's got to be a few I'd like better. It's not saying anything great about our system. I just don't see anything I like about Szczur, who I see as Bobby Hill with less hit tool.

So ... a plus glove CF, with speed, solid discipline, some pop, and has had some bad luck in the early goings in AA, someone who had a solid run in A+ and has a hit tool that is viewed as above average to plus, isn't a top 10 prospect in this system? I'm very curious who is in your top 10 then. I've been down on Szczur all season. He's old for a prospect and has a hideous and slappy swing. I don't know about his defense. For now, I'll take people's words that it is plus in CF, but I know that label gets thrown around a lot in the minors. I have a standing policy to be deeply suspicious of minor league defense reports. He may be legit, but they frequently turn out to be overrated. "Some pop?" Where's the pop? He's on pace for 4 home runs per 600 PAs this season. The pop disappeared when he added plate discipline. Until he proves he can have both at the same time, I'm not buying it. He's got some extra base hits, but they look like fake minor league fast guy power to me, where a super-fast hitter racks up 2bs and 3bs against poorly positioned, indifferent outfielders. "Above average to plus hit tool"? Really? In my world, guys with above-average to plus hit tools don't hit .285 in the low minors. Again, I just don't see it. Maybe I'll be wrong. I'm wrong a lot and even smart people are wrong frequently about prospects. But other than the speed, I don't see anything to like about Szczur.

Why am I not surprised that I keep hearing talk about Szczur doing well at AA, so I checked on how he's doing, and he's hitting 230/309/426. Yes, he's on a hot streak lately, but I still just don't see the big deal with this kid. Not in my top 10.

Not that worried about it, yet. Vitters especially is a guy that they seem to think responds well to being forced to work for everything he gets. Just like in Iowa to start the year when he was perpetually batting down in the lineup, then worked his way up to the middle.

Always feel bad for the guys who hit AAA but never even get a cup of coffee.

Quick math: nm I am bad at maths Okay, trying again. Vogelbach after his 2 HRs tonight was at 377/432/ 852

It seems like it's one of those standing labor issues where they wouldn't mind it, but it gets bargained away very early in every process.

Out of curiosity, and because I have no earthly idea how to calculate it, what would his line be if his BABIP were normalized to something like .310 or so? One thought about that too, his LD% is also way down in those 38 games so how relevant is it that the BABIP is so low since the LD% is also way down? Still very relevant. I'm not really convinced that LD% is all that predictive over small samples either.

Wonder what the NWL record is for consecutive games with a HR. This is downright sick.

how many PA does it take to stabilize for a guy who's likely having his swing overhauled on the fly? 19. Cut him now.

I don't get why errors make it so much worse than like a 17-1 beating or something. Because of a stupid statistical category that shouldn't even exist? If a pitcher misses his location and gives up a home run, that's just ordinary bad. But if a fielder makes a bad throw and puts a runner on first or gives up an extra base, that's a special new level of bad? Mistakes are mistakes, bad is bad.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered? There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable. How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages? Not a perfect comp and injuries had something to do with it, but this is one I never liked seeing on Castro's otherwise amazing comp lists: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17659 According to this, it only takes 60 PA for K-rate to stabilize into something meaningful. Jackson has 11 in 19 PAs. 1/3rd of the way there.

I'm really curious is this game is turned into some kind of big deal or shrugged off.

HR power is generally more "real" than 2b power. 2b power does not normalize over even a very large number of at-bats. I'll give up doubles for an equal-value amount of home runs any day. It's better long-term for a player's projection.

Agreed. I was a little suspect of his ability to consistently hit .320 or whatever going into this season, but showing the improvements in power and defense say a lot more about his long-term projection than his OBP.

That's some heavy stuff.

About eight more of those and I'll begin to buy the hype.

Jackson could make it two days in a row without a K. Something to build on.

? An offhand comment by a scout in a BA article described Almora as having 40 (average-ish) speed with 80 (elite) range in CF because of his jumps and routes. Being myself, I've really latched on to the idea.

The legend of 40/80 grows.

I know. It should read "Starlin303cubs." Precision of language, please.

Maddux only threw in the mid-70s and he got hitters out. Raley will be fine.