Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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I think the Williams backlash is based on some things that I don't want my team making decisions on, but I do love Drake Maye. Not interested in trading for Chase Young. Can't stay healthy, not interested in the old double pay where you pay draft capital for the privilege of signing what is essentially a free agent.
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You really think every "good" team in the NFL has two WRs better than Darnell Mooney?
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I'm not convinced "college results against good defenss" is a meaningful scouting metric. That's how people talk themselves out of Peyton Manning because he got his butt kicked in the 1998 Orange Bowl. Josh Allen's best games his senior year came against 2-10 Texas State and 3-9 UNM. Patrick Mahomes' second to last college game was 18-for-36 for 219 1 TD 2 INT against a 3-9 Iowa State team. The only teams Trevor Lawrence threw for 3+ TDs against in his senior year were Citadel, Miami and a 3-7 Georgia tech team. Meanwhile Justin Fields put up 6 TDs against an amazing Clemson defense.
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On pace for just a smidge under 400 yards is meh? I understand not stat-scouting, but I've never seen such thirst to drag down a top prospect before the draft like this. (and I mean from Bears fans in general, not just because of this one post). I can't tell how much of it is the diva perception and how much of it is fans wanting to talk themselves out of drafting a QB because of the bust risk inherent to the position.
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Mooney was also a 1000-yard receiver before Fields took over full-time.
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I dunno if center is something I wanna pick up mid-season. There's a lot of work that goes into installing NFL offenses and continuity mid-season is valuable. Plopping a guy into the middle of a new system in week 8 or 9 doesn't seem ideal at a position that's responsible for line reads.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LY0rPTVx0kg&ab_channel=AlexRollinsNFL Jordan Love: Can't make quick reads, easily fooled by false fronts, bad mechanics when progressing through reads, tendency to hop in the pocket, terrible deep ball.
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Blackhawks 2023-24 Season - Bedard luck this year
Hairyducked Idiot replied to bukie's topic in Other Sports
And they go into vegas and win -
Blackhawks 2023-24 Season - Bedard luck this year
Hairyducked Idiot replied to bukie's topic in Other Sports
Bedard ties it with a nasty release for a goal. The time it takes from puck hitting his stick to flying toward the net is unfair. -
Fields has a $50m te, a top wr, we just drafted a dependable tackle and he's still been struggling to pass 60 yards passing by the third quarter consistently
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And yet you have to have a good QB, the first round is still the best place to get one. QB Hell is real and all you can do is keep spinning the wheel
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There are a lot more great QBs who went into terrible environments and turned the environment around than there are great QBs who came into a bad environment, failed, then succeeded later in a good environment. It's a feedback circle. When a QB comes in and does well, the coaches look smart, the support players put up better stats, everyone says "oh he had a great environment." When a QB sucks, the coaches look like idiots, the offensive line gets blamed, the support cast sees their stats fall apart. "Oh no one could succeed in that environment."
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Yeah, this is one of those things that keeps popping up in statistical analysis. I see it a lot in hockey. Player is really bad at X. Player only succesfully executes X in situations where the other team is doing something that makes X easy to accomplish because X is a suboptimal strategy in that moment. Stats say Player is *really* good at X. There's a lot of terrible defensive hockey players out there with fantastic defensive scores on their JFresh charts because their teams try very hard not to put them in difficult defensive situations.
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I think there's a real chance neither of our picks end up that high. Carolina is our best hope. They look ready to give up and firesale. But I did like how Bryce Young looked last week and he might be starting to pull it together a bit. After seven games last season, the Bears were 3-4 and not picking in the top 10 at this point. The Lions were in the 10A spot and ended up just barely missing the playoffs.
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It's fascinating to me how much "Bust QBs put it together for a second team" just isn't really a thing. Alex Smith hung around the 49ers forever, started to be ok, then went to KC and was pretty good. Before that you have to go back to like Steve Young?
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He doesn't have to start throwing 50 yard go routes. But he will soon, probably immediately, have to prove he can punish corners who try to jump the short routes by hitting throws 15-20 yards down the sideline from the pocket. Something kinda like a slightly longer version of the one he tried to hit Scott on against Minnesota (which according to one of those QB school videos was the wrong read but not a terrible throw).
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I will also note that Fields himself has three games this season with an AirY/A of under 3.0: 2.5 vs GB, 2.9 vs KC and 2.8 vs MIN
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And I said that he needs to show he can throw the ball down the field. He tried exactly three times in the Vikings game iirc. One was a hospital floater that almost got Moore killed, one was underthrown by 10 yards and got a PI, and one was the worst air punt I've ever seen.. I expect the Chargers to come out jumping routes like crazy next week, and if he can't punish that by hitting passes in the 15-25 yard intermediate zone (and make the throws from the pocket to the outside, not just when rolling out) then it will all fall apart fast. I like him more as a proof of concept than as a savior, showing how dysfunctional the QB makes the offense look and not the other way around. But in the meantime, as far as AirY/A, I"m not exactly going crazy over a stat that can't tell the difference between Mahomes (4.0 AirY/A for the season), Gardner Minshew (3.9) and Justin Fields (4.0).
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Probably, but I dunno if "Chicago sports fans get orgasmic" is a metric I'm gonna plant my flag on
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I will remind you that in one of those two good games, the Broncos defense adjusted to what Fields was doing and the end of the game became an absolutely miserable affair for the offense. Playing with a lead in the second half against the Raiders, the Bears offense put up drives of 8:16, 6:29 and then finally 0:52 (but forced LV to use all their timeouts) before they knelt out the clock. During that second half, the Bears offense committed no turnovers and only one play of negative yardage: a -1 yard run early in the third. Playing with the lead against Denver, the Bears started with a drive of 7:26. Then they went 1:04 and 2:21 (fumble-6 from Fields), allowing Denver to tie the game, and then finally lost their last chance to salvage it with a Fields interception. Fields "good" game involved a rather spectacular 4th-quarter pants-pooping in which he failed to do the "easy" thing that Bagent did: Take easy plays and control the clock.
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Watch the play that starts at 9:35. The play call is a screen. The defense blitzes. The blitz defeats the screen easily. The protection does not block the blitz well and there's pressure instantly. Does our undrafted rookie QB in his first start throw the screen anyway for a incomplete, loss, or worse? Does he eat the sack? Fumble? Get hurt? No. He instantly reads all this and throws the hot slant baked into the play. Which is actually reasonably well covered but he beats the coverage with a hard, accurate throw to leverage. Hot. Damn. Maybe next week defenses adjust to all this and force him to throw downfield, resulting in more air punt interceptions and it all falls apart for him. Maybe they find some tricky fake looks and induce him to make bad throws, or they start jumping some of these routes. But this is the kind of operation we need from the next QB we bring in, and we need to keep bringing in new ones until we get it.
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This should not be taken in any way as an endorsement of W-L as a QB stat, but just as one of my classic fun facts: Bagent could lose four starts in a row and still have a higher career win percentage as a starter than Justin Fields
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It's both. There are frequently times he looks like he knows the progressions. But there is still tons of times where he blows up the play by not reading the defense. I know I'm going to this video a lot but: Basic hot read and the entire offensive line looks confused at fields as to why he didn't execute. Two uncovered defenders to the left and at no point does fields consider either checking the play out of a pitch to the left or pulling and running his secondary option.
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Fields and Bagent are so different in terms of skills and weaknesses that it's difficult to make meaningful comparisons. It almost comes down to philosophical preference. Fields has shown he's been capable of games where his explosive plays make up for his tendency toward negative plays and poor execution. I literally don't think he's capable of executing the simplified, no-mistakes game plan that Bagent did.
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There's 16 above-average starters in a 32-team league. Let's say the average guy lasts 10 years (longer for the Mannings and Bradys, shorter for the Cam Newtons, so it averages out). That means you're getting about one and a half above-average starters out of each NFL draft. The average draft over the last decade has about 11 QBs taken. That's a whole lot of busts.
