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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    No [expletive]. But there's basically no way that happens regardless, unless damn near everything breaks really right. Well, unless some teams get really generous in trade negotiations with the Cubs. I really don't think losing DeJesus has any tangible effect on next year's outcome in any case. Two good free agent signings, bounceback years from the core, hit on some of the interesting bullpen guys. That's all it would take.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    The difference between the LaHair argument and this is that Lake's peripherals haven't changed all that much. He just had a crazy BABIP early, which we all knew wasn't sustainable. This is the fun of splitting player's data down arbitrarily. We can make it look like whatever we want. Lake's July - 310/333/466, 3.3% BB, 21.3% K Lake's August - 306/358/452, 6.0% BB, 25.0% K Both of those come with unsustainable BABIPs, but it's not as if he hasn't performed across his entire sample.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    Why would we split Lake's performance into two separate parts like that? Don't see any reason to. Lake's got 128 PAs right now in the majors that say his K rate is about 4-5 points lower than ZIPS was assuming going into the year, that's going to make a big difference on the projection. Fangraphs lists his remaining-season ZIPS projection as 262/302/395. You can only assume that his next season projection would be even a tick higher. (it has DeJesus at 258/338/400, incidentally). The best OBP/SLG/defense comp to that this year would be (lol) Cespedes, who has been worth 2 wins in about a hundred games this year. I could be reading the situation wrong and they don't really think that much of Lake, but to me it's close enough to be a completely defensible call if that's what they are thinking, even bordering on a clearly good one. You are trading 30 points of projected OBP for age, money and upside.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    If all goes well. Of course he could theoretically do what DeJesus does, without the quality PA, but DeJesus is a safer bet to do what DeJesus does, which is why he gets money. I don't think there was anything in there that is any more of an "if" than any other player, expect for the defense. And that's a scouting call, which is why they get money.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    Danny Ecker ‏@DannyEcker 8m RT @ckamka So with DeJesus going to Nationals, the current #Cubs player with the most career home runs is now Dioner Navarro with 51.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    Take Junior Lake's projection, bake in a year of improvement, assume he can be a good defensive LFer, I don't think you come up with anything worse than what you'd expect from DeJesus in 2014.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm taking this as a vote of confidence in Junior Lake. If he's the guy his peripherals say he can be, then it's not really efficient to keep him, DeJesus and Schierholtz all at the same time. This is exactly what things would look like if they were planning on making a huge run this offseason, and it's also what they would look like if we really are going to get a $75m payroll. I don't know what to think.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    Also the fact that we seem to be intent on addressing the organizational catcher situation, and that Jackson seems like he fits the profile of the type of player they are looking for. 100% confidence is probably a bit much, but it wouldn't be at all surprising.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    that's quite a remarkable insight, where did you find this out? I'm speculating. Although Epstein has said specifically he didn't expect spending to be as cramped as it has been. So I can only assume that something that Ricketts thought was true when he was schmoozing Epstein turned out not to be true.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    Iowa is in the 16th now. Hendricks was solid and now a whole bunch of guys I don't care about have been great in the pen.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    Its really amazing we've amassed THIS much power coming thru the system. Especially when power was the major organizational weakness like two years ago. It's amazing how fast things can change when competent people in charge want them to change.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think I'm kind of sold on Junior Lake as a starting outfielder. He should hit and defend just well enough to make it all work as well as a DeJesus-type would.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    My main worries right now are the offense and the top of the rotation. All of which could be solved by our so-called "core" players actually performing like stars.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    What if Rivero, Vizcaino and Rosscup are all what they appear they might be, simultaneously, in next year's pen?
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    That reminded me of Sosa in the HR derby in Milwaukee.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    Castro is now averaging 1.9 fWAR per 600 PAs for his career.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    Trevor Gretzky ‏@TrevorGretzky 43m @albertalmora #focus #consentrate
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    Does anybody have more than my vague memories about an article or a series of sabermetric articles back in the early 2000s that said something to the effect of regression to the mean being less likely when the divergence from previously established levels was particularly extreme?
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    Does he still make the 40 man roster next year? I think no. But yes to Vitters.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    Rosscup struck out 3 in one inning, allowing one hit.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    Because they thought that with attendance over 3 million/year and getting a large subsidy on the renovations from the government, it wouldn't be as much of a problem as it's turned out to be. There were a lot of reports at the time of Zell making various demands on the buying team, and that it had scared away some buyers.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    I said that Sosa should win the MVP over McGwire because McGwire's rate stats may show that he's more efficient, but Sosa produced more.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    Giancarlo Stanton in AA at 20, 53 games: 313/442/729
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's possible that it's a myth, but why are you sure of it?
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's not an unreasonable reference point or anything, but Baez's performance at AA is a notch and a half better than Wood's. The slash line is in the vicinity, though Baez's is better, but Wood did it in an extreme hitters' league with a ton of 2bs and 3bs propping up his SLG.
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