The soft schedule has favored the pitching staff recently, which isn’t factored into expected stats. If i were to guess why the computer simulations don’t favor the cubs, I believe the pitching is probably a major reason. IF you believe these simulations are based off of the 146 game aggregate without any recency bias. Because it makes zero sense that the Mairiners, Mets and Padres have a higher probability to win the World Series if that was the case.