Brian Kelder

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Sunday afternoon, Shota Imanaga exited his start with a hamstring injury that could sideline him for about a month. Coupling this with Justin Steele's season-ending elbow surgery, stress has entered Cubs fans' hearts. There is no sugarcoating the news. It's a bad thing for any team to lose their top two pitchers at any time. The Cubs, though, may have constructed a team that can withstand it. Here are the necessary components to survive and thrive as a team during this challenging time. Component 1: Matthew Boyd must stay on the mound. A quick Google search can show the opinion on Matthew Boyd's signing, and this author agreed with many of them in thinking it was not a stellar move. He's done nothing but prove people wrong. Boyd can pitch. Despite a BABIP (.324)-influenced WHIP of 1.35, he's been outperforming projections to this point. What Boyd really needs to do is stay healthy and keep making his starts until Imanaga returns. Durability has not been a strong suit for Boyd, averaging only eight starts per season since 2021. It would be a wonderful thing for the Cubs if Boyd could continue pitching—and a necessary one, to maintain their position atop the NL Central. He's already gaining attention nationally as a great under-the-radar signing. Component 2: Colin Rea must prove this isn't a fluke. Tuesday night's outing against the Giants was rough. Before it, though, Rea's ERA was a gaudy 1.46, and his FIP was 2.50. What Rea has done is put his outstanding defense to work and avoid hard contact. He's controlling the variables that he can control. Rea does have a higher fly-ball rate than average, but the quality of contact has not been high. He doesn't strike out as many hitters as one might hope, but he's a control artist, with a walk rate of 5.7% this season and a 6.0% clip last year with Milwaukee. While his numbers are due for a dip when the weather warms up, Rea does have a history of durability. He started 27 games in 2024 and 22 the year before, pitching in key moments for a division champion. If he can simply replicate his performance this season, it would go a long way to solidifying the Cubs rotation. Component Number 3: Ben Brown needs to pitch like his team scored 10 runs. When Brown is loose and confident, he's getting ahead of hitters on the first pitch. A loose and confident Brown can pitch against any lineup, as evidenced by scoreless outings against the Dodgers and Brewers. When his command is off, he has had non-competitive starts. Brown needs to trust his stuff and let it work. Component Number 4: Let's give Cade Horton a test run. It's already being reported and speculated and questioned and pontificated that Horton would get a weekend start and short runway. He's the arm in the system with the highest potential for success. Over 29 innings in Iowa, he has 33 strikeouts, a 0.86 WHIP, and 1.24 ERA. The 13 walks are a concern, but when you have only allowed 12 hits, they don't look quite so worrisome. Triple-A hitters have only put the ball in play on 11.3% of their swings; Cade is overwhelming them. He's also throwing 80 pitches per game. The only thing left for him is to learn how to do this in the major leagues. Oh, and the health. Most Cubs fans know about the wasted season in 2024, due to a shoulder issue. Given the numbers and the fact that his heater has touched 98 mph this spring, it's reasonable to assume that he's healthy now. The arm is needed, and the bullets do not need to be spent toiling in Iowa. Horton's health is solid at the moment; it's time to see what he can do. The worst-case scenario is a couple of poor starts and a return to Iowa to apply those lessons. Component Number 5: Keep mashing and fielding. When scoring five or more runs last season, the Cubs were 61-12. With this offensive output, the Cubs should be able to roll out any cromulent arm and contend. Couple that with the league's second-best defensive team by Defensive Runs Saved, and the Cubs have strong points. They should be able to maintain them, and support even a diminished pitching staff. The Cubs should be just fine if they can do these realistic things. Did I miss anything? Any "constructive criticism?" Put it in the comments! View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images As you may have seen online, the Cubs have the highest odds to win the World Series, according to Baseball Reference. Unexpected? Yes. Does it make sense? Should Cub fans buy in? Let's take a look. Baseball Reference uses a system they call the Simple Rating System. There are two main components to this: strength of schedule and run differential. The Cubs have just finished the toughest stretch in baseball from strength of schedule. Currently, the run differential for the Cubs is +48, third in the league. When a team has a hard schedule and still produces a high run differential, the Baseball Reference formula will spit out a higher probability. Another major factor in the Reference formula is the team's record in their past 100 games. This can span seasons, and August and September were not bad months. The Cubs are 54-46 in their past 100 games, an 87-88 win pace. By comparison, the Brewers have been 56-44 (59.8% odds to make the postseason), and the Reds 62-38 (19% odds). So basically, the Cubs had a great month against great competition, and their playoff odds are now at 93% by Baseball Reference. This makes sense, given their respective schedules and results. It's just another measure of how good the Cubs have been to start the season. If you don't believe me, here's a link and then here's the words from that Baseball Reference page: What should we make of all this? Point One: The Cubs have had a great start. We all know this, and the Reference Odds are a good barometer. Point Two: It's going to get easier. In fact, the schedule for the remainder of the season is the easiest in baseball. This has the makings of one of those special seasons. (Here's a link to the schedule strength so far.) Point Three: The NL Central is not respected. Part of these odds are the higher chance that the Cubs win their division. The Brewers seem to have finally been affected by their talent drips from the past few years. The Reds don't have a stellar recent history, and we won't mention the Cardinals or Pirates. The Cubs are in the drivers' seat. Now, this is a statistics-based measurement, and the past two months of May were not happy for the Cubs. In 2023, the Cubs collapsed to a 10-18 record, and in 2024 they were 12-16. With divisional play heating up, the Cubs can ill afford another May cold stretch. And it is still a possibility. After Justin Steele's elbow reconstruction, the rotation is being held together by duct tape and elbow grease. If Colin Rea regresses to the mean, Matthew Boyd has his seemingly inevitable injury, or Ben Brown continues to have noncompetitive games, the pitching will not hold up, no matter who the opponent is. These odds don't speak to any of that, because unlike other Playoff Odds models (Baseball Prospectus's, fueled by PECOTA, or FanGraphs's, fueled by ZiPS and STEAMER), Baseball Reference's don't use individual player projections. They're solely rooted in the indices of recent past performance and schedule strength that we've already talked about. That makes them fundamentally different, and importantly so. Both of the projections-based systems are lower on the Cubs than this. But that's a hypothetical, negative outlook, and one that doesn't serve the thesis statement. This is a month for optimism. The Cubs are World Series favorites! It's a month to be celebrated, not one to worry about something that hasn't happened yet. And even then, Cade Horton is increasingly looking like an option sooner rather than later. Sit back, enjoy the ride, and know that at least statistically, the Cubs measure up with any team in baseball. View full article

And yes I do get Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly confused. I’ll put the comment here before you guys do!

What a fun start of the season the Cubs lineup has had. They have the highest-rated offense in the National League, and they've made this article exceedingly hard to write. How do you pick an MVP from this squad? Is it the perennial MVP candidate? The upstart, breakout center fielder? The catcher who has seven home runs already? Good problems, these are. The Cubs offense is absolutely on fire. The team batting average is .263, second only to the Yankees. For long stretches of the last few years, the club has hit too few home runs, but they now rank fourth in the majors with 42. As a result, they rank second in OPS with a hearty .799. By any measure, this offense is clicking. Without further ado, the candidates for North Side Baseball's Cubs Hitter of the Month: Honorable Mention Seiya Suzuki (.298/.368/.596) Rate Stats Pace: 38 HR, 135 RBI, 92 Runs Michael Busch (.284/.382/.537) Rate Stats Pace: 27 HR, 86 RBI, 81 Runs These guys had to be mentioned, as they've been spectacular. Look at that pace for Seiya! For Busch, keep in mind that he's lost plate appearances due to Justin Turner somehow receiving 53 of them (with zero extra-base hits and a .446 OPS). I would expect his playing time to tick up. 3rd Place: Carson Kelly (.370/.524/.891) Rate Stats Pace: 38 HR, 113 RBI, 70 R, 83 Walks, all of this in 340 prorated plate appearances (Stats per 600 plate appearances: 67 HR, 200 RBI, 124 runs) Danny Jansen has been, as the kids say, good, right? While nobody should expect him to continue this level of production, he has these numbers already in the bank. With the negative offensive value the position created last season, Kelly and his fellow backstop Miguel Amaya (.283/.313/.483) have been massive sources of improvement over the first month. When Jed Hoyer makes his case for a new deal as the Cubs' president of baseball operations, Carson Kelly will be one of the feathers in his cap. 2nd Place: Kyle Tucker (.288/.397/.568) Rate Stats Pace: 38 HR, 140 RBI, 140 R, 43 steals There's no way that this guy really deserves a second place finish for this month. This is arguably a top-five bat in baseball. He's easily been worth giving up Cam Smith, even for just one year. Optimism has come for a possible extension during the season, and Cubs fans would rightfully revolt if ownership doesn't meet his demands. This writer, personally, doesn't want the uncertainty. Just give him what he wants. Then, we can fully enjoy what's going on in right field. THE FIRST MONTH MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.284/.325/.543) Rate Stats Pace: 32 HR, 124 runs, 113 RBI, 65 steals If you watched the ESPN broadcast of the Sunday Night Baseball game against the Phillies, Crow-Armstrong was the main character. He had a delightful on-field interview, some hard-hit balls, and the announcers showered him with praise. I'm not saying this is a full breakout. But it is what a breakout looks like. Currently, Crow-Armstrong sports 1.9 WAR, second-highest in baseball. This is obviously a reflection of his defense, which Craig Counsell dubbed the best in the league, and the eye test more than measures up there. Statcast is less forgiving on his bat, but don't sweat that. He's not going to be a player always quantified by advanced metrics. Just watch the games; you'll see the impact he makes daily. To be a bit dramatic and meatball-like, Crow-Armstrong has become my favorite player in baseball, and finally nudged this slightly aging and cranky fan from the post-2021 selloff doldrums. The excitement this kid has provided makes the Cubs not just watchable, but must-see TV again. His breaking out is the most important thing besides a Tucker extension, and for that reason, Pete Crow-Armstrong receives this prestigious award—one which he probably will never know he earned. Thanks for reading, and let me know if you agree or disagree in the comments. View full article

Cade HortonMoises BallesterosMatt ShawKevin AlcantaraCristian HernandezOwen CaissieJefferson RojasJonathon LongJames TriantosIvan BrethowrChristian FranklinJaxon WigginsBrandon BirdsellPedro RamirezCole MathisBJ Murray JrNazier MuleFernando CruzDrew GrayPablo Aliendo

Cade HortonMoises BallesterosMatt ShawKevin AlcantaraCristian HernandezOwen CaissieJefferson RojasJonathon LongJames TriantosIvan BrethowrChristian FranklinJaxon WigginsBrandon BirdsellPedro RamirezCole MathisBJ Murray JrNazier MuleFernando CruzDrew GrayPablo Aliendo

The Chicago Cubs are hammering left-handed pitching, but posting league-average numbers against righties. Is this a concern long-term, or a just an early season aberration? Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images The Cubs are destroying left-handed pitching this season, even with three of their main hitters batting on the weak platoon side. After Friday’s victory over the Phillies, the team's OPS was .917 versus left-handers. When a right-hander toes the rubber, the OPS slips to .776. Both of these are higher than the league average OPS of .712, but something is awry. Kyle Tucker is exempt from this, as he’s dropping an OPS over 1.000 against pitchers from both sides. Michael Busch is at a splendid 1.007 OPS against right-handed pitching, but it plummets to .697 against the other side, albeit with only nine plate appearances. Pete Crow-Armstrong also feasts against RHP with a .946 OPS. As you'd expect, the left-handed hitters in the lineup have the classic splits. Lets look at the culprits who are struggling versus right-handers. Below are each player's OPS numbers against right-handed pitching (OPS versus southpaws is in parentheses). Dansby Swanson: .503 (1.212) Nico Hoerner: .652 (.951) Matt Shaw: .339 (.984) Ian Happ: .687 (.812) Seiya Suzuki: .425 (1.754) Three of these five had over a .600 point difference, with Suzuki at over 1.300 taking the crown. While not a death knell to the lineup, there are a few implications here. First of all, the right-handed pitching the Cubs have faced this season has been outstanding, from Yomashiba Yamamoto to Nate Eovaldi to Tyler Glasnow and Dylan Cease. It doesn't matter who you are — those pitchers are going to keep your numbers down. The quality of starting pitching has simply been better from the right side so far this season. But, if you don’t believe me, here’s Bleacher Nation founder Brett Taylor: "Just noticed that on the list of the top four ERAs in baseball – Tyler Mahle (0.68), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1.06), Hunter Brown (1.16), and Nick Pivetta (1.20) – the Cubs have faced them FIVE TIMES THIS YEAR. Yet they somehow still have put up huge offensive numbers overall. It almost feels like that shouldn’t be possible. Almost 20% of the time the Cubs have opened a game against a starting pitcher who has given up almost no runs this season. What?!" Craig Counsell has these splits in mind when he fills out the lineup card. Watch how the preferred lineup plays out with these splits in mind. Happ (better versus lefties) Tucker (destroyer of worlds) Seiya (better versus lefties) Busch (better versus righties) Dansby (better versus lefties) Nico (better versus lefties) PCA (better versus righties) See what he did? Given the three batter minimum for pitchers, the lineup alternates at least once each inning between left and right-handed advantages. There’s never a stretch of batters that are all dominant against the same-handed pitcher. Keep that in mind when you ask for PCA to move to fifth; putting him and Busch back-to-back just isn’t good lineup construction. Kudos to Craig Counsell for being ahead of these trends and adapting his lineup in this way, though hopefully he won't have to be so meticulous going forward as certain players find their groove against the side they're weaker against. In the months ahead, this will likely stabilize, and it hasn’t hindered the win-loss record to this point. It was an interesting study to see how the lineup reflects data and begin to understand the "why" behind Counsell's lineup construction. What are your thoughts about Counsell's lineups? Do you want him to change things up, or leave the status quo? Leave your thoughts in the comments! View full article

Justin Steele will miss time because of the same injury that he missed time with last season. He had the offseason to recover, and clearly more time will be needed. This is not good news, but it's a reflection of the Cubs' reality: their roster sits precariously on a razor's edge of success and failure. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Despite having a deeper bench, the Cubs have several positions that lack adequate replacements if injury strikes. The bullpen has been shaky. The rotation is down two projected starters. The offense to this point has carried the team, of course, and the outlook of the season continues to be positive. It's the "what-ifs" that likely keep Jed Hoyer up at night. What If Number 1: What if there is an injury to Justin Steele or Shota Imanaga? I guess the answer to that will come quickly! Colin Rea was signed precisely for these moments as a swing arm. Jordan Wicks is struggling with a 1.76 WHIP in his first two starts in Iowa, Cade Horton isn't stretched out, and Chris Flexen also sports a WHIP over 1.70. There is not a pitcher in the system that can be expected to come near to Justin Steele's projected line. The Cubs gambled a lot of their season on Imanaga and Steele maintaining their elite level while, in Steele's case, increasing his workload. Matthew Boyd has been outstanding, also, which lessens the blow of Steele missing time. Even so, the team cannot afford to lose Steele for an extended period of time. They just weren't built to withstand his loss. Not to pile on the Cubs spending habits, but adding pitching would have been a solid use of funds saved from dumping Cody Bellinger. They were not actively pursuing any of the high-dollar, high-production pitchers. Time will tell if this backfires. What-If Number 2: What if Matt Shaw isn't ready? The obvious answer is ride it out with Shaw. Gage Workman, he of the 71.4% strikeout rate, isn't ready for this level. The team is off to a tremendous start offensively, averaging the third most runs per game in baseball. Shaw is holding his own—at least in terms of getting on base (.333 OBP)—and his defense, while not great, is at least better than what Christopher Morel offered, and we can be certain he won't do a bat flip on a double to center. All indications are that Shaw, while not ready to be a top-shelf player, will use his unusual stance and grit to carve out a long-term role. An injury, though, would derail the Cubs here. Jon Berti is good in his role, but would likely be exposed as an everyday guy. Workman has seemingly been exposed already. But that's worrying about a hypothetical. Just relax for now and watch Shaw develop. What-If Number 3: What if the bullpen doesn't have a single elite arm? Tuesday's game against the Rangers was encouraging and discouraging at the same time. On the positive side, the Cubs scored ten runs, rendering any bullpen shenanigans moot. On the other hand, Julian Merryweather and Porter Hodge were dinged, and Ryan Pressly was saved by Dansby Swanson and the defense in the ninth. That's a major difference from last season, where blown saves were plentiful. The Cubs simply outran the score needed for the relievers to finish the job. The bargain bin often looks nice on the shelf, but reality hits soon after when the purchased item breaks or is not as useful as you had hoped. The Cubs have not found a lockdown reliever (I'll concede on Hodge if you want to argue in his favor) and their newcomers have struggled. Big-armed farmhands Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, and Luke Little will look to hone their command and reach Wrigley soon. Colin Rea is moving to the rotation, and two relievers have an ERA over ten at the moment. Caleb Theilbar sits over 6.00 in that stat, and Ryan Pressly's FIP sits at a ghastly 6.93. Going forward, the Cubs sorely need reliable arms. Brad Keller has been solid to start; perhaps that's the extra bridge they will need. Once again, the payroll situation has put the Cubs on the precipice of success, but a step in the wrong direction would put them in dire straits. Here's hoping they can thread the needle this summer. View full article

The Cubs are off to a tremendous, exciting start, and the bench players have been integral to it. Gone are the days of flailing tiny infielders and large men with contact issues. In their stead are guys with game-changing speed, impressive beards, or both. Here's the latest edition of Bench Guys Aura Rankings. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images 1. Jon Berti: After the Monday night game, can there be anyone else in the top spot? Berti scored a run by himself. He was hit by a pitch, stole second, stole third, and scored ahead of Jake Burger's throw against a drawn-in infield. That's truly game-changing stuff. Berti can play every infield position (besides shortstop) at a passable level and has manned left field in the past. Currently, his on-base percentage is at .333. Players like Berti are the unsung heroes and occasional backbones of playoff teams. Monday night, we saw a glimpse of how impactful such a player can be. He was a great, under-the-radar signing by Jed Hoyer. 2. Justin Turner: Turner was initially ranked first, but you can't do this and keep your spot. To be honest, I'm not nearly as bullish on Turner as I was early on. He's taking at-bats from Michael Busch and providing very little value. He's just 4-for-18 on the season, with all the hits being singles. This has some Eric Hosmer vibes, though at least Turner is drawing walks to go with his hits. 3. Gage Workman: His middle name is Tater. He's a tall, strapping, bearded lad. The defense, in theory, is good. However, he's 0-6 with five strikeouts. Watching him hit, this is not going very well. Maybe the Cubs can offer something back to Detroit to keep him around, because he clearly isn't ready for the majors. Vidal Bruján will be healthy soon and should take this spot. Note that Carson Kelly is not included, because he's not a backup. For this purpose, Miguel Amaya and he are considered co-starters. Each has played seven games so far. Possible Additions to the Bench to Replace Workman If you want a longer rundown, we have it here. These are 40-man players and how they're starting off through seven games in Iowa. Owen Caissie: .905 OPS, but a sprained ankle. He's likely to get called up for an injury to a corner outfielder, if he's healthy whenever that happens. Kevin Alcantara: Off to a slow start for the third consecutive season, sporting a .486 OPS. He is streaky. A better defender than Caissie, he'll get the call if something happens to Pete Crow-Armstrong. Ben Cowles: He's off to a hot start. This is from the linked article by Jason Ross: There you go! If needed immediately, Cowles is probably ahead of James Triantos (.214 AVG, .517 OPS for a guy with a hit tool that needs to carry). Do you guys enjoy this format? Am I way off base? Let me know below. I'm a middle school teacher in real life; there's no way I can be sensitive anymore. View full article

The Cubs are a typical small-sample hodgepodge, as are most teams. Some things matter; some things do not. That certainly doesn't mean that we can't try to spot and savor the former, though. Let's look at some early trends. Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images Dansby Swanson Sprint Speed 2024: 63rd percentile 2025: 89th percentile Dansby Swanson is healthy to start the season. Watching his speed on plays like this and his agility on double plays shows just how much his knee and core muscle problems were affecting him last season. When sprint speed is measured, it becomes clear. Swanson is feeling great, and he's playing tremendous, exciting defense. The bat doesn't seem to be majorly different. Maybe his torpedo bat will help with the sweet spot percentages, and perhaps the power will come back to 2022 levels for a summer. Regardless of the offensive production, however, it's good to see Swanson at full speed. Takeaway: Enjoy watching Swanson play. He's a great player and fully healthy. Kyle Tucker I was just starting to dig in here, and then remembered Matt Trueblood did a thing, so just read that one! Pete Crow Armstrong Plate Approach This is one to track as the season goes on. Current Slash Line: .148/.233/.222, but those are results. How's the process? Chase Rate: 41.4%, 2nd percentile in 2024; 38.0%, 16th percentile thus far in 2025 That's good! He's chasing pitches less often than last year. He's not ever going to have Juan Soto's approach, but so far, he has been incrementally more disciplined in his swings. He's still not very disciplined compared to others. We will see if this skill continues to develop, but it's a positive sign. Walk Rate: 2024: 5% 2025: 10% That's doubled! Crow-Armstrong is going to play virtually every day, due to his fully realized defensive potential. The plate approach seems to be tweaked and some patience is being reflected. Last year, Christopher Morel famously attempted to do something similar, and when the results lagged, the approach dissipated. Crow-Armstrong needs to stay the course; the results will come. Takeaway: Promising, but progression will be small steps not large gains Miguel Amaya I'm less bullish about Amaya sustaining his current .313 batting average. His whiff percentage is actually higher than last year. Where he's been an outlier is the sweet spot percentage. A 53% rate of hitting the ball at the most productive launch angles puts him in the top four percent of all hitters in baseball. The launch angle is only 6.7 degrees, though—down from 11 last year. Discouragingly, he's yet to draw a walk. Amaya needs to walk more, in order to effectively hit when his barrel rate drops from its unsustainable current level. Takeaway: He'll be decent, still, but this is not likely to be a full-fledged breakout. Is Justin Steele Unlucky? Most fans would not expect Justin Steele to have an ERA of 8.00 in his first two starts. K Rate: 2024 24.3%; 2025 18% Barrel Rate: 2024 4.2%; 2025 13%, which is 32nd percentile Along with these, the whiffs are slightly down, and the hard hits are slightly up. If this is a season-long trend, feel free to panic. As it stands, however, Steele's first start was against a great team in a weird venue, and his second was against an Arizona team that has a solid lineup. He also has thrown only four changeups this season. They were all promptly returned to him at over 100 mph of exit velocity, for a batting average of 1.000. To this point, Steele has been a fastball-and-slider pitcher, nearly abandoning his sinker and change. He's thrown 144 total pitches to this point; 17% were not fastballs or sliders. Apparently, he has lost his feel or confidence in these pitches. That doesn't mean he won't rediscover it, though. Takeaway: We aren't discussing an ace pitcher here, but he needs to be solid and reliable for the Cubs. These metrics can be reversed with one single good start. Once he settles in, things will be fine. Thanks for taking the time to read this and I hope you found some of this information interesting! Any other analytics you guys would like to see, put it in the comments. View full article

The Cubs cut bait at an early date on the swingman they acquired in exchange for the lefty bat who helped anchor their lineup the last two years. Did they botch that entire string of transactions? Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images Are you old enough to remember the word "boof?" It was a baseball term when I played growing up, used in the context of messing up an easy play. If you "boofed" it, you let a grounder hit your glove, dropped an easy fly, or something similar. It's not a compliment. Jed Hoyer and the Cubs might have boofed the Cody Bellinger salary dump. If they didn't care what the return for Bellinger was at all, that's a mistake. They should have gotten more than some sort of low-level flier. If Cody Poteet was at all part of their plans, they clearly didn't scout the Yankees system well at all. There's really no defending the return, even if a case can be made for the initial trade. "I feel like for us, we don’t have a lot of margin for error," Hoyer said in a recent interview with The Athletic. "We need guys to improve, we need to stay healthy, we need to play clean baseball. I think that the way this team is built—we have a really good defensive team, we should run the bases well—we need to do all those things really well. We don’t have the ability to sort of muddle through and just show up and make the postseason. We have to have a really good season to do that." The Cubs have to have a good season on the margins, on the field. This quote, though, also applies to the front office. If they were forced to dump Bellinger, getting Poteet and designating him for assignment just three months later feels akin to a throwing error. It's possible that they're just trying to sneak him through waivers and keep him without the expenditure of a 40-man roster spot; there's no better time of year than now to try that. It's also possible that Poteet just didn't come as advertised, from either a stuff or a makeup perspective. Either way, though, there's at least a chance that the Cubs end up with nothing at all to show for trading Bellinger. It's better to widen the lens and see the whole field, when it comes to that move. The Cubs, effectively, traded Bellinger, Cam Smith, Isaac Paredes, and Hayden Wesneski for Kyle Tucker and Poteet, plus considerable salary relief. Since they failed in their efforts to spend the savings they realized on the likes of Alex Bregman or Tanner Scott, though, that aspect of the bundled trades now feels a bit wasted—and so might Poteet be. It all puts more pressure on Tucker to be great, and the fact that the Cubs' chances of signing him to a long-term deal are slim further sharpens the point. Hoyer has done his best to give us a solid product on the field, but he is correct in saying they have to play well on the fundamental aspects of the game in order to have success. He needs to hold himself to that same standard, and the evidence that he can do so is mixed. The Cubs' front office, much like the players, cannot muddle around and make October. The Poteet move does not engender confidence in the process. View full article

There's a civil war brewing in Cubdom. Cam Smith has made the Houston Astros' Opening Day roster. As usual, the internet has several different takes, all of which are valid (in a way). Here is an attempt to be nuanced—and, of course, the most correct take on the internet. Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images Cam Smith, who was dealt (along with Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski) for Kyle Tucker in December, burst onto the spring training scene. A .342/.419/.711 slash line with four home runs will garner attention for any prospect, even in the Grapefruit League. His callup was tear-inducing, and his teammates are calling him a 60-home run guy in the future. The Astros, clearly, are excited about their new toy. Cubs fans should also be excited about Kyle Tucker! He is the legitimate star bat that has been clamored for. With the team feeling pressure after a teardown and an underwhelming 2024, they made this move to get exactly the type of player the Cubs needed to be division contenders in 2025. That does need to be factored in. It's important to recognize where Smith would have fit in the Cubs organization as it currently stands. Matt Shaw was penciled in as the third baseman this year as soon as Paredes was dealt. Every spot in the outfield is occupied, with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki under contract through 2026 and Pete Crow-Armstrong under team control through 2030. Taking an aggregate of the major prospect-ranking outlets, Smith is roughly the 42nd-best prospect in the minors. He would not be under consideration for the Cubs' Opening Day roster even if he were still in the organization; he likely would have been ticketed for Knoxville to start the season. For this year, there really needs to be no consternation about the trade. Tucker is going to be a great player in Chicago. Smith will almost surely struggle, be it right out of the gate or after going around the league once. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he returns to the minors at some point. When looked at under that lens, it's difficult to see an issue with the trade. Unfortunately, and possibly unhealthily for fans, the team's spending habits are a large part of the reaction to the trade. Given Tom Ricketts's history (and his hilariously implausible comments about lack of revenue), pessimism about Tucker sticking around past 2025 is warranted. This would be perfectly fine in a normal world. However, Cubs prospect hounds have told us for years to be patient. They said the prospects are real, and they are spectacular. Now, Smith—a noted prospect who just plays and looks like a ballplayer—is dealt? Why did they switch their plan? It was not wise to deal a great prospect for one year of anyone given their plan and financial situation, says that segment of the fan base. To get a homegrown star, it's necessary to have many bites at that apple. Crow-Armstrong has that type of potential. Kevin Alcántara seems to, as well. Smith does have tremendous potential, and Houston feels like that future will arrive now. Making the Astros is a huge deal, and it's absolutely fair to question if other teams scout the Cubs better than they scout themselves. The prospects sent to the Dodgers for Michael Busch are also rising quickly, though Busch himself had a great first season in Chicago. After the trade, the Cubs famously dumped Cody Bellinger's contract. Despite multiple efforts, they didn't spend as much money thereafter as fans (rightly) demanded. Some of the optimism from the trade—the hope that this signaled a new era—was torpedoed by the parade of aging reclamation projects for the bullpen and bench. If they had truly been all-in, as the Tucker acquisition implied, we wouldn't be looking at oft-injured veteran Matthew Boyd as the main rotation addition and Ryan Pressly as the new closer. They did make big offers to Tanner Scott and Alex Bregman, and a trade for Jesús Luzardo died at the medical review stage, but the effect was the same as if they had simply stopped attempting to swing big. The offseason peaked with Tucker, and the anticlimax thereafter was frustrating. This will be a fun season, and the Cubs will push for 90 wins. Long-term, though, the implications of this trade are less than ideal. If the Cubs won't sign a player like Kyle Tucker at market value, they should have just sat it out and maintained their plan (which was working). Smith being dealt wasn't the main problem; the main issue is a failure to go all-in on 2025-27, or to commit to signing Tucker. Of course, we won't know for months whether Tucker will actually be a one-and-done guy in Cubs pinstripes. However, If this is truly the case, they would have been better served to let the process in place play out. View full article

It's been well chronicled that Jed Hoyer might be on his last gasp as a Cub after 13 seasons of gainful employment. While he was tasked with an unpopular teardown and complete rebuild, the results have not been there. Even if the team makes the playoffs as a division champion, there are little mistakes that deserve a closer look before signs an extension. Image courtesy of © Jon Durr-Imagn Images The first margin Jed Hoyer struggles to fill is which prospects to trade. In obtaining Kyle Tucker, he traded Cam Smith, one of the few prospects in the system with true star potential. Smith is competing this preseason for a starting job in Houston less than a year after being drafted. If Tucker is not retained, this trade will haunt the Cubs for years. Michael Busch was another key acquisition but came at a steep prospect cost: Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris are both now top 100 prospects. Hope has particular helium as one of the top ten guys in some publications. These trades have value for the big league team, but Hoyer has not correctly identified which prospects to keep and which to dangle in trades. If Zyhir Hope and Cam Smith reach their pedigree, this could be like the Astros dealing Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson or (gasp) the Cubs dealing Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. Other teams seem to have scouted the Cubs more effectively than the Cubs have self-scouted. Of course, we'll have to see how it plays out, but prospect rankings have not been kind to the Cubs' decision-making process. The bullpen is another area the Cubs have not done well on the cheap. Jed has followed the same blueprint this offseason: cheap arms on short deals. At this point, the closer is Ryan Pressly, who has declining metrics; Porter Hodge, who somehow found control after struggling with walks in the minors; reclamation former prospect Nate Pearson, fringe reliever Eli Morgan; senior citizens Ryan Brasier and Caleb Thielbar; and a bunch of prospects who throw hard but have no idea where it's going (Luke Little, Daniel Palencia, etc.) The question is if the bullpen is truly deeper than 2024. It is not. There are more arms, sure. The arms are just not high-quality ones. Once again, the Cubs will throw relievers at the wall and see which ones stick. This is fraught with risk, and a repeat performance of 2023 and 2024 is not just possible; it could be seen as probable. Jed's strategy of building a bullpen is hazardous and not sustainable year to year. We can only hope this year is an on year for the Cub's stable of unproven relievers. On the bench, Hoyer once again is taking chances. Justin Turner, on paper, is a good signing, but at age 40, we need to remember that Father Time will be knocking on the door sooner rather than later. Gage Workman would be a cost-effective infield backup if his bat can translate from Double-A to the majors. Vidal Brujan is another cheap but uninspiring option. For years, the Cubs have struggled to identify quality bench players. They may have enough this season, but it certainly is a risk. Another area of the Cubs to monitor is this group. It has the makings of a solid group, but based on Jed's record, confidence from this vantage point is low (Tre Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Nick Madrigal come to mind). Jed Hoyer is not terrible at his job. To this point, he has not hit on the moves that his reduced budget requires him to make. If this trend turns around, we're in for a fun season in Wrigley Field. If not, we can look forward to a revamped front office when the season ends. View full article

There is a narrow path to the Cubs building the elusive, Craig Counsell-endorsed 90-win team. There are certain numbers and benchmarks to be watched for as the season goes forward if the Cubs wish to reach that threshold. Image courtesy of AP Photo/Nick Wass 30 and 6: This is the number of starts Justin Steele needs to make for the season and in September, respectively. Steele has been a very good pitcher when he takes the mound. Unfortunately, he has not been healthy enough to make more than 30 starts in a season. Compounding this, his Septembers have contributed to the Cubs' lack of playoff berths. In 2022 and 2024, he was injured for all or most of the final month. In 2023, with the Cubs falling one game short of the playoffs, he struggled to the tune of a 4.91 September ERA. Justin Steele needs to be able to maintain his stellar summer production for an entire season for the Cubs to make the leap to 90 wins. 40: Pete Crow-Armstrong's stolen bases need to be plentiful. Getting to this number means that he's certainly been on base over 30% of the time. If he does this, we have a possible All-Star center fielder on our hands. 30 is also the number of home runs someone needs to hit. Kyle Tucker should be a lock for this; Seiya Suzuki or Michael Busch would be the most likely candidates thereafter. Eight of the top ten home run hitting teams made the playoffs in 2024. The Cubs, even when acknowledging the addition of Tucker, really need someone to level up this season in the power department. Keep an eye on the middle of the order to see if a leap can be made. .776: Dansby Swanson needs to reach this OPS in 2025. With the Cubs behaving like a mid-market team all winter, they absolutely need their biggest investment to not hover around a 100 wRC+. Swanson, as highlighted on Locked On Cubs, simply cannot be a negative offensive asset at the amount of salary he's commanding. Swanson probably won't have post anything above a .330 OBP (his career high was .345 back in 2020), so to do this, his slugging percentage has to rise. His 2024 mark of .390 simply isn't acceptable, no matter how steady he is on defense. If he can replicate his 2022 campaign (32 doubles, 25 home runs), the Cubs' offense may be deep enough to compete with anyone. 25: Someone on the roster needs to take control of the ninth inning and total 25 or more saves. Maybe Ryan Pressly can stave off Father Time for one more season. Perhaps Porter Hodge can continue his momentum from the past two seasons. It doesn't matter who does it. The Cubs need stability like this at the back-end of the bullpen. 0: This would be the number of bench players with a WAR below zero. No more Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, or Nick Madrigal in sight. Justin Turner, Jon Berti, and eventually Kevin Alcantara will be needed at some point. With better injury luck this season, as well as able-bodied replacements to sub in, the Cubs could be talking an extra two or three wins thanks to their improved depth alone. These five things address all of the shortcomings from last season's 83 win team. A reliable bullpen would flip some of the blown saves to wins. Dansby Swanson being a reliable bat should help add another win or so. The rotation depth is helped here, and bench bats can be utilized more effectively. This is the blueprint. This is the way. View full article