Statcast Indicators in Cubs' Early Performances

Dansby Swanson Sprint Speed

• 2024: 63rd percentile
• 2025: 89th percentile

Dansby Swanson is healthy to start the season. Watching his speed on plays like this and his agility on double plays shows just how much his knee and core muscle problems were affecting him last season. When sprint speed is measured, it becomes clear. Swanson is feeling great, and he's playing tremendous, exciting defense. 

The bat doesn't seem to be majorly different. Maybe his torpedo bat will help with the sweet spot percentages, and perhaps the power will come back to 2022 levels for a summer. Regardless of the offensive production, however, it's good to see Swanson at full speed.

Takeaway: Enjoy watching Swanson play. He's a great player and fully healthy. 

Kyle Tucker
I was just starting to dig in here, and then remembered Matt Trueblood did a thing, so just read that one!

Pete Crow Armstrong Plate Approach
This is one to track as the season goes on.

• Current Slash Line: .148/.233/.222, but those are results. How's the process?
• Chase Rate: 41.4%, 2nd percentile in 2024; 38.0%, 16th percentile thus far in 2025

That's good! He's chasing pitches less often than last year. He's not ever going to have Juan Soto's approach, but so far, he has been incrementally more disciplined in his swings. He's still not very disciplined compared to others. We will see if this skill continues to develop, but it's a positive sign.

• Walk Rate: 2024: 5%  2025: 10%

That's doubled! 

Crow-Armstrong is going to play virtually every day, due to his fully realized defensive potential. The plate approach seems to be tweaked and some patience is being reflected. Last year, Christopher Morel famously attempted to do something similar, and when the results lagged, the approach dissipated. Crow-Armstrong needs to stay the course; the results will come.

Takeaway: Promising, but progression will be small steps not large gains

Miguel Amaya
I'm less bullish about Amaya sustaining his current .313 batting average. His whiff percentage is actually higher than last year. Where he's been an outlier is the sweet spot percentage. A 53% rate of hitting the ball at the most productive launch angles puts him in the top four percent of all hitters in baseball. The launch angle is only 6.7 degrees, though—down from 11 last year. Discouragingly, he's yet to draw a walk. Amaya needs to walk more, in order to effectively hit when his barrel rate drops from its unsustainable current level.

Takeaway: He'll be decent, still, but this is not likely to be a full-fledged breakout.

Is Justin Steele Unlucky?
Most fans would not expect Justin Steele to have an ERA of 8.00 in his first two starts. 

• K Rate: 2024 24.3%; 2025 18%
• Barrel Rate: 2024 4.2%; 2025 13%, which is 32nd percentile

Along with these, the whiffs are slightly down, and the hard hits are slightly up. If this is a season-long trend, feel free to panic. As it stands, however, Steele's first start was against a great team in a weird venue, and his second was against an Arizona team that has a solid lineup. He also has thrown only four changeups this season. They were all promptly returned to him at over 100 mph of exit velocity, for a batting average of 1.000. 

To this point, Steele has been a fastball-and-slider pitcher, nearly abandoning his sinker and change. He's thrown 144 total pitches to this point; 17% were not fastballs or sliders. Apparently, he has lost his feel or confidence in these pitches. That doesn't mean he won't rediscover it, though.

Takeaway: We aren't discussing an ace pitcher here, but he needs to be solid and reliable for the Cubs. These metrics can be reversed with one single good start. Once he settles in, things will be fine.

Thanks for taking the time to read this and I hope you found some of this information interesting! Any other analytics you guys would like to see, put it in the comments.