Call me nuts, but just think about the following We're 6 & a half games out We're 6-1 this month We have seven games left with the Astros, who lead the Wild Card. Of our remaining games, we have 3 against the Giants who are reeling, 3 against the Reds who we can, in theory, beat, as we are, in theory, more talented. 4 against the Cardinals who should be coasting and getting in playoff shape by that time. 3 against the Brewers who, again, we're better than in theory. And then 7 of our final 9 games are against the Astros, with a couple of (in theory) easy games against the Pirates sandwhiched in between. Now, lets look at what the competition has, their last 10 game records included The first thing that jumps out is, all the teams from the East are playing each other again and again over this last month (which, you know, duh). So it's not a huge stretch to assume they continue to beat each other up and the wild card doesn't come out of the East. So, it's pretty much us chasing the Astros when it comes down to it, and we play them 7 times. So lets break down the Astros (because if you catch them you catch everyone else by proxy, pretty much) schedule and how they've fared against those teams this year. So lets just take out the Cubs games, since we're drinking blue kool-aid and assuming the Cubs have just hit their stride, and are going to play above their results this season. Lets just base the Astros results against everyone else on their season average and recent trends... So, this has the Astros going 9-7 in every game except the ones they play us in. Lets look at the Cubs remaining schedule just like the Astros. So, this has the cubs going 12-3 Which puts ours and the Astros records at the following Cubs - 81-74 Astros - 84-71 3 games back 7 games against the the Astros, so in those 7 games, we'd have to go 5-2 to tie the Astros for the Wild Card. As noted above, both teams could in theory do better or worse than I noted. So...highly unlikely, but we still have a chance in the wild card :D