Cuzi
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Everything posted by Cuzi
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When it comes to Bauer, if his accuser didn't already make the allegations go away, I'm not sure a Republican billionaire stands much of a chance.
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I feel like opt outs is becoming a fan fiction.
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Hoyer has his favorite proverb hanging above his bedroom door and he slaps it every day as he walks out for good luck... "Good things come to those who wait"
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If we are signing Bellinger and a 1B, or trading for Alonso, then I would hope that PCA would be involved in a deal for a better, more controlled, pitcher than Bieber. Maybe swing back around to the Blue Jays for a guy like Addison Barger who is just rotting away on the 40 man roster right now because they dont have a spot for him.
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What you are missing is that every single one of the Cubs prospects is going to be a successful MLB player and that the Cubs have a spot to give them on the MLB roster. Every. Single. One.
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Pretty sure everyone is flaccid with the way the Cubs are operating.
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He wanted a contract longer than 6-7 years.
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You didn't show me. I had to look. And when I looked no one said he was MVP caliber. No goal post has been moved, you just never understood where the goal post was in the first place.
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The closest thing I see to saying he was MVP caliber was saying "near MVP." He was 10th in MVP votes, so is that wrong? But in the context of our discussion we are talking about Bellinger rebounding to his MVP season. Again, I'll wait for the quote where it was ever stated he returned to that form.
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Do quote where anyone has said Bellinger returned to MVP caliber form as a hitter. I'll wait.
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Again... he traded power for contact. Obviously the average EV is going to go down if your concern is merely putting bat to ball. If you dont understand the importance of max EV when it comes to raw power then you dont understand power.
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Pache started his pro career 2 years younger than PCA. Please dont try and compare their MiLB numbers. Their AAA numbers aren't that far off and Pache was equally if not more regarded as a prospect than PCA and they have the same exact profile.
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Bellinger's xBA was 74th percentile. He was not "lucky." There are real questions about his power going forward, but its no question he did trade power for contact. He was never a better hitter at making contact in his entire career than he was last year. The other thing to point out with the power is that in his previous 2 seasons his max EV was 107. Last year his max EV was 109, 1 mph lower than his MVP season. So the power hasn't drained. It actually rebounded.
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The rub is, is PCA more than Christian Pache? The Cubs could also sign Bellinger and want him in CF and just as easily trade PCA for pitching or whatever.
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Their source was probably Morosi.
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At least we can now put to rest the nonsense about the Cubs trying to emulate the Dodgers.
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Not surprising. The idea of opt outs in these contracts is dead. Teams haven't given one out since Gerrit Cole and his is voidable by the team if the Yankees tack on another year to the deal.
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So let's rewind back to the discussion we were having about knowing how much it was going to take to sign Ohtani and every team being in the same ballpark. How many teams do we believe were in the $700M ballpark?
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What is your definition of "extremely accurate"? MLBTR studied their own projections and they give themselves a 10% buffer in their "success rate." They are typically in that margin 55% of the time, peaking 1 year at 69%. Is that considered "extremely accurate"? Not only the 10%, when a standard margin of error is 3%, but also the roughly coin flip accuracy?
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Kris Bryant was still producing. He was 4.7 WAR in 2019. Vlad has only produced 1 really good season, not 3. Fangraphs did a study on arbitration raises a year or two ago and although there was never a decrease in arbitration from year to year, the previous years WAR directly correlated to their pay, so if they didn't produce, the raise was minimal. Look at Cody Bellinger for example.
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Vlad has been worth 3 WAR over the last 2 years at 1B. He's playing on reputation right now, not performance.
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Vlad is not getting $50M in his last 2 years of arbitration. He'll probably be around $40M. And I guarantee a team would way overpay last years performance and bet on his bounce back.
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The Cubs have made plenty of moves completely under the radar without any leaks. Marcus Stroman was signed in a single day and was flown out to Wrigley hours before there were any reports of the Cubs involvement. There was nothing about Counsell until he was signed. Seiya Suzuki was about to sign with the Padres until he was signed by the Cubs.
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Didnt the Blue Jays also leak a little info about meeting with Ohtani? If he cared that much about keeping things completely secret he would pick the Cubs, because they havent said a damn thing.
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Trading Vlad wouldn't be to dump payroll, though. They promoted Spencer Horwitz who is a 1B/DH. Vlad is a 1B/DH. Ohtani is the best DH in the game. If they are trading Vlad, it's because a team is going to pay a decent price to get him and the return better fits the makeup of their roster. That's not a salary dump.
