Brandon Glick

With pitchers and catchers set to report for the Cubs on February 14th, the team could look to bring in a few more reinforcements on the mound ahead of the 2024 season. Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports The North Siders have already made a few moves to beef up their pitching staff, signing Shota Imanaga and Hector Neris for the rotation and bullpen, respectively. They also added Yency Almonte in the Michael Busch-Jackson Ferris swap. Combined with the expected internal improvements of the younger pitchers on the roster - Jordan Wicks, Luke Little, and Daniel Palencia chief among them - the team appears to be doing the necessary work to trot out an above-average run-prevention crew next season. However, it’s worth noting a lot of the offseason work has merely been about replacing lost talent; Marcus Stroman departed for New York after opting out of the final year of his contract, and Michael Fulmer recently signed with the Boston Red Sox as he rehabs his late-season UCL tear. On the margins, Brad Boxberger had his mutual option declined, Michael Rucker was designated for assignment (and subsequently traded to the Philadelphia Phillies), the San Diego Padres plucked Jeremiah Estrada off waivers, Brandon Hughes signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks after he was non-tendered, and Codi Heuer is still lingering on the free agent market after his non-tender. The Cubs are probably neutral right now regarding the added pitching talent versus the loss this offseason. If they want to improve, they should probably turn their attention to Miami, where the Marlins currently house some intriguing arms that shouldn’t cost too much relative to the rest of the trade market. Edward Cabrera Cabrera is a 25-year-old starting pitcher with a 4.01 career ERA who isn’t arbitration-eligible until 2026. If you need more of a sales pitch than that, he posted a 3.01 ERA in 71 ⅔ innings with a 1.074 WHIP and 137 ERA+ last year. This year, his ERA rose to 4.24 in 99 ⅔ innings, though he improved his FIP (4.59 in 2022 to 4.43 in 2023), his homers allowed per nine innings (1.3 to 1.0), and strikeouts per nine innings (9.4 to 10.7). Another sign that points to positive regression is his batting average on balls in play: after posting a .207 figure in 2022, his BABIP inflated to .285 this year. If Cabrera is going to improve beyond his current third or fourth starter role, he’ll have to limit the free passes he issues (15.2% walk rate in 2023) and get his exit velocity numbers back to 2022 levels (85.3 miles per hour). Even if he can’t be projected as a future front-line starter, he’s still an extremely valuable piece that will cost a pretty penny on the trade market. Rarely are starters available amid their athletic primes and under team control for five-plus years. Expect If the Cubs are going to make a move for him, the price will be unsightly. Proposed Trade: Cubs Receiver: Edward Cabrera Marlins Receive: Christopher Morel, Ben Brown Somewhat limiting his trade value is that Cabrera missed a chunk of last season with a right shoulder injury. His age and relatively clean past bill of health should assuage most concerns, but shoulder issues for pitchers are always frightening. Ken Rosenthal cited Texas Rangers infielder Ezequiel Duran as "the kind of player the Marlins likely would want for Cabrera." However, it’s worth noting that the Rangers hold Duran in higher regard than the rest of the league. Duran is a former top-100 prospect who broke out during the Rangers’ World Series campaign in 2023, posting a .768 OPS (106 OPS+) in 122 games. Like Cabrera, Duran is team-controlled through the 2028 season, making him a valuable long-term asset. The Cubs' closest analog to Duran - a high-upside, established major leaguer with plenty of team control - is Morel. The 24-year-old hit 26 homers and slashed .247/.313/.508 in a strong sophomore season. Like Duran, Morel can play all over the diamond, though Duran’s versatility is more of a skillset than a consequence of finding a long-term defensive home. Morel comfortably fits the Marlins’ top need of a power bat, though the Cubs aren’t exactly flush with those, either. It would be interesting to see if the Cubs could convince the Marlins to take a pure prospect (Own Cassie?) rather than a young major leaguer, but it would require one of their top bats regardless. The inclusion of Brown is more than just a sweetener, though Cabrera would overstuff an already deep cache of starting pitchers in Chicago. The Marlins could be more patient with Brown as he develops as a starter, or they could take the plunge and try to convert him into a dominant fastball-curveball reliever. Tanner Scott Tanner Scott was a longtime Baltimore Orioles prospect and reliever before getting traded to the Marlins in 2022 for a few low-level prospects. After a breakout season in Miami in 2023, he’ll cost a lot more from a prospective trade partner. Scott posted a 2.31 ERA in 74 appearances last year (78 innings pitched), backed by a sterling 2.17 FIP and 195 ERA+. He struck out 12 batters per nine innings, walked 2.8 batters per nine innings, and gave up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings. In other words, he was a dominant, workhorse reliever. After accruing just one save in five years in Baltimore, he’s got 32 in his two years with the Marlins (12 in 2023). As a lefty reliever, he’d also provide extra value to a Cubs team with only a few lefties in the pen (Luke Little, Drew Smyly). Proposed Trade: Cubs Receiver: Tanner Scott Marlins Receive: Alexander Canario OR Matt Mervis & Caleb Killian OR Hayden Wesneski & Patrick Wisdom There are a variety of trade packages here, depending on the Marlins’ internal valuations of the Cubs’ fringe prospects. Still, they all accomplish the same thing: the Marlins receive a power bat and young arm, while the Cubs get Scott without sacrificing a fundamental piece of their 2024 roster. Scott only has two years of arbitration left before he hits free agency, and his closer bona fides aren’t as established as someone like Emmanuel Clase, so he won’t be able to garner a top-100 prospect on his own. That being said, he’s still an effective left-handed reliever under 30, which is a pretty attractive set of characteristics to have on the trade market. The Cubs probably won’t fret too much over parting with Wisdom or Mervis now that Michael Busch is in town and likely manning first or third base. Losing Killian or Wesneski before giving them a full chance to work through their early-career hiccups would sting, but this is a win-now move, and the two right-handers are currently the Cubs’ 8th and 9th starters and probably destined for mop-up/long-man duty in the bullpen for the foreseeable future anyways. Canario is the biggest name on here, and the Cubs would be remiss to lose someone with such a high-level, blue-chip skill (his power). However, at least the outfield is locked down for the next few years, with Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Ian Happ all under contract, and the Cubs have a wave of young position players coming up through the minors behind Canario. Making either of these moves for Scott or Cabrera (or perhaps both) would be more of a luxury than a necessity, especially in the face of the Cubs’ ongoing pursuits of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman on the free-agent market. “There’s no such thing as enough pitching” is a typical phrase for a reason, though, and the Cubs would be wise to grab another established arm before the season begins. View full article

With Hector Neris in tow, the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen is beginning to take shape for 2024. Let’s take a look at where things stand as of the end of January. Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports It's never quite this simple, but the nature of bullpen analysis always seems to be that we treat them as hierarchical structures. So, let's sort through this one that way. The Established, Late-Inning Crew Adbert Alzolay The Cubs’ brand new, homegrown closer had a dominant finish to the 2023 season, posting a 2.67 ERA in 64 innings pitched. His ERA+ was an absurd 168 (meaning he was 68% better than a league-average pitcher) while finishing out 38 games, 22 of which went for saves. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and a lethal slider, Alzolay has firmly entrenched himself as the Cubs’ closer of the present and future. If the team finds itself in contention at the deadline, they could make a move for another ninth-inning arm, but for now, expect to see Alzolay finishing games as the Cubs try to position themselves for that very situation. Hector Neris The newest addition to the Cubs’ bullpen, Neris signed a one-year, $9-million contract over the weekend to be one of the setup men to Alzolay. He posted a ridiculous 1.71 ERA in 71 appearances, though that comes with the caveat of a 3.83 FIP and a well-below average 31.7% groundball rate. However, when you can throw a splitter like this, odds are you’ll have some sort of consistent success. Neris provides plenty of insurance should Alzolay get injured or take a step back this year (he has 89 saves in his career), but his true value will come as a versatile bridge in the late innings. Opponents posted just a .569 OPS against the former Astros reliever last year, and his OPS against was below .650 in each of the seventh through ninth innings. Julian Merryweather Merryweather broke out with the Cubs in 2023, supplying Chicago with career bests across the board. His 3.38 ERA in 72 innings was a top-three mark in the bullpen, and he was the hardest thrower of that group (not including Daniel Palencia, who only threw 28 ⅓ innings in the majors last year). Merryweather’s strikeout rate ballooned up to 32.3% last year, while his walk rate stayed consistent at 11.9%. As long as he can maintain that level of control, the former Blue Jays castoff should continue to be a dominant force in the seventh and eighth innings at Wrigley. The Match-Up Arms Mark Leiter Jr./strong> Leiter Jr. is the nominal “lefty” in the bullpen, as he held opposing left-handers to a .185/.265/.302 slash line in 182 plate appearances. His splitter is his greatest weapon, as the pitch produced a .127 expected batting average last year, making it one of the 20 or so best “out-pitches” in baseball. He faltered some down the stretch as fatigue hit and his splitter lost its effectiveness, but until and unless the Cubs add a true lefty (with traditional splits) to the pen, Leiter’s job is secure. Yency Almonte The “other” piece in the Michael Busch trade, Almonte is to righties what Leiter Jr. is to lefties. Almonte’s splits aren’t as drastic as the ones Leiter is rocking, but limiting his exposure to opposing right-handed batters is when he’s thrived most in his career. Over the last two seasons, Almonte’s strikeout rate against righties is 27.9%, compared to just 16.5% for lefties. Similarly, he’s walked only 8.6% of right-handers, compared to 12.4% of left-handers. The former Dodger is out of minor league options, so he’ll stick around as long as the Cubs believe in his stuff, but for now he’ll mostly be limited to match-up duty. The Power Arms Luke Little In his 6 2/3-inning cup of coffee last year, Little struck out 12 and walked four. It was par for the course for the dominant 6-foot-8 lefty, who’s got overpowering stuff but lacks elite control. He only gave up five hits, and in his last two seasons in the minors, Little has allowed just one home run. As long as he can keep the walks to a minimum, Little should be a fixture in the bullpen for years to come, and his talent for keeping the ball in the park should make him a top candidate to assume the closer role should Alzolay struggle during his first full season in that spotlight. Daniel Palencia Equipped with a 100-mph fastball and the best raw stuff of any of the Cubs’ relievers, Palencia rose rapidly through the organization after converting from being a starting pitcher. Palencia posted a 4.45 ERA in 28 ⅓ innings last year, though his 4.00 FIP and 89.6 mph average exit velocity better express his talent and ability to manage contact. His .224 expected batting average was also in the 70th percentile, mostly on the back of his slider (.200 xBA). The Cubs will be hoping the 24-year-old fireballer can expand his repertoire and show a greater ability to pitch out of jams, but Palencia enters 2024 as perhaps the highest-upside arm in the bullpen. The Swing-Men (and Others) Drew Smyly & Hayden Wesneski Both former starters will enter 2024 as candidates for the fifth starter role in the Cubs’ rotation, though Smyly and Wesneski found more success last year after moving into the pen. Both benefited from matchup protection (Smyly works better against lefties and low-contact righties, Wesneski struggles against all opposing left-handed hitters) and simplified pitch mixes, though the Cubs will be hoping to keep both stretched out enough for inevitable injuries and openings in the rotation. Wesneski is obviously the higher-upside arm, making the back-end of some Top-100 prospect lists this time last offseason, and if he ever figures out a pitch mix that works against left-handers, watch out. José Cuas, Javier Assad, Carl Edwards Jr. Keegan Thompson Cuas was the Cubs’ return in the Nelson Velázquez trade last summer, and he’ll have a chance to break camp with the big-league roster. More likely, he’ll go to Triple-A Iowa as a depth option, working on his stuff and honing his funky delivery before an as-needed call back to Chicago. Assad could return to the bullpen, but after his surprising run in the rotation last year, he should be the favorite to take on the fifth starter role behind Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks. Perhaps Jordan Wicks or one of Smyly or Wesneski takes it from him and pushes Assad back into his long-man role as a reliever, but for now, Assad is penciled in as one of the starters. Edwards, Thompson, and others will go to Spring Training as depth arms with minimal chance of being with the Cubs on Opening Day. They’ll all provide valuable depth should things go awry, but the Cubs have done good work giving themselves plenty of options for the bullpen. Does Neris make you feel good enough about this relief corps? Is there anyone else you want to see the team add before spring training gets going? Since we're down to 16 days before that happens, it's time to answer that question. View full article

The Cubs have been exceptionally patient this offseason, much to the chagrin of their fans. Though things have finally gotten kickstarted, the front office largely appears content to bet the outcome of their 2024 season on the development of the players already on the team. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports After the signing of Shota Imanaga, the Cubs made another surprising move, trading tantalizing pitching prospect Jackson Ferris and toolsy teenager Zyhir Hope to the Los Angeles Dodgers for third baseman Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte. Those were two savvy moves, as the Cubs got Imanaga on a four-year contract worth well below what he was projected to get, and in Busch, they plucked a top-75 prospect in all of baseball from a team with a surplus of corner infielders and power hitters. It fit perfectly into Jed Hoyer’s M.O., as the Cubs waited out the market to land talented players for relatively good prices. The team will make more moves as the offseason progresses. Hoyer himself said this was just the “fourth of the fifth” inning of the Cubs’ offseason, and the roster will be fleshed out in greater detail than it is now. Plenty of free-agent targets still exist, like an expenditure on reliever Robert Stephenson or a reunion with Cody Bellinger. The trade market is bustling, too, as Cleveland, Miami, the White Sox, and others have attractive starters to dangle as trade bait. Whatever the Cubs do from here, though, they’ve already announced to their fans and to the baseball world that they’re comfortable slow-playing their rise to contention. Armed with a farm system most analysts agree is in the top three in the game and led by new manager Craig Counsell, the North Siders are betting big on their ability to develop players internally. It’s not a crazy concept, predicated on blind faith. In the 2023 season alone, the Cubs saw career seasons or baseline-establishing breakouts from Christopher Morel, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki on the positional side. On the pitching front, Justin Steele became an All-Star; Javier Assad became an invaluable swingman between the rotation and bullpen; Adbert Alzolay firmly established himself as the team’s closer; and Jordan Wicks came up to the big leagues in September during a playoff race and performed admirably. The minor leagues have seen an even greater abundance of breakthroughs, as Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton have been joined by Kevin Alcántara, Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, Ben Brown, Moises Ballesteros, and James Triantos on various Top 100 prospect lists around the baseball world. The trade for Busch (a Top 100 prospect in his own right) saw the Cubs deal out Ferris, a supremely talented left-handed starting pitching prospect. When was the last time the Cubs had such a surplus of young starting pitchers that they were able to consider it a position of strength for the organization? Nevertheless, the Cubs were an 83-win team last year, falling a single victory shy of making the playoffs. The NL Central is as available for the taking as it's ever been, with last year’s champion, the Milwaukee Brewers, losing Counsell, Brandon Woodruff and more this winter. The Cubs’ willingness to let the big fish on the market swim by may keep the accounting books clean, but the team currently projects to finish in the same bracket of Wild Card contenders as last year, according to the recent 2024 ZiPS projections. Staking their season on the improvements of their in-house guys is both a show of faith in their coaching staff and players, and a commentary on the state of the league. The Dodgers and Atlanta Braves are the best teams in the National League, by a country mile. There is no move (or collection of moves) the Cubs could make in a single offseason that would put their roster on par with the NL East's and NL West's defending champions, at least on paper. Why shell out tens of millions of dollars and multiple top-100 prospects for a few players who wouldn’t push the needle beyond the Cubs’ current ceiling of being the NL’s three seed? Looking ahead to next season, Ian Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and the catching tandem of Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya are locked into everyday spots in the lineup. Steele, Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon are locked into the rotation, while Alzolay, Assad, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. figure to be fixtures in the bullpen. That leaves four spots in the lineup (plus four additional bench slots), one rotation spot and half of a bullpen to fill out before Opening Day on Mar. 28. There are still signings and trades to come, to be sure, but most of those roster openings will be filled by players already repping a Cubs uniform. The Cubs won’t enter next season as a prohibitive favorite to win anything, barring a massive trade for Shane Bieber and Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians that puts Chicago in the driver’s seat in the NL Central. However, the roster is already good enough to compete for a Wild Card, and the team is just an All-Star season from Wicks or an unexpected Silver Slugger-caliber campaign from Shaw away from prying their window of contention wide open. Do you share the sense that most of the team's strategy for the coming year is to bank on internal progress? How are you feeling, four weeks out from spring training and with so much left unsettled? View full article

The deadline to settle arbitration deals this offseason passed on Thursday night, and the Cubs avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players. Let's take a look at the terms, and consider the implications. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports For context: if the arbitration deadline passes without the player and team reaching a deal, then the two parties exchange official offers and await an arbitration hearing. (Technically, they're allowed to continue negotiating until the hearing begins, but most teams now pursue a "file-and-trial" policy wherein once numbers are exchanged, no compromises are available.) In that hearing, both the player and team make the case for the salary they submitted for a one-year contract for the player, after which a panel of three neutral arbitrators decides in either the team’s favor or the player’s. The Cubs have had a habit of avoiding those hearings whenever possible. Over the past 30 years, only two Cubs have been brought to arbitration hearings (Ryan Theriot in 2008, Pedro Strop in 2015). It turns out old habits really do die hard, as the Cubs avoided arbitration with each of their six arb-eligible players for the 2024 season. Justin Steele - 1 year, $4 million Year of arbitration: 1 of 4 Steele was the Cubs’ big breakout in 2023, as he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting and made his first career All-Star team. Emerging as the ace of the staff, the Mississippi native became the long-awaited homegrown success story on the pitching side, and he’s all but certain to be the first pitcher to start Opening Day for the Cubs as an original draft pick of the team since Jeff Samardzija in 2014. Steele finished last season with a 3.06 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 173 ⅓ innings, all career-best totals. Adbert Alzolay - 1 year, $2.11 million Year of arbitration: 1 of 3 If Steele was the big breakout in the rotation last season, Alzolay was the dominant story out of the bullpen. After years of dealing with injuries and shuffling in and out of the rotation on his way to the big leagues, Alzolay finally settled into the closer role in July and (except for his stint on the injured list) never relinquished the gig. He finished 2023 with 22 saves (38 games finished), while putting up a 2.65 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 58 appearances. If the Cubs are to be competitive in 2024, they’ll need a repeat performance from their homegrown closer. Mike Tauchman - 1 year, $1.95 million Year of arbitration: 1 of 3 The 33-year old Tauchman was one of the most fun stories in all of baseball last season, as he quickly gained a foothold in the Cubs’ outfield after fizzling out with the Yankees and Giants. He was originally called up as an injury replacement for Cody Bellinger, after the former Dodger injured his knee in May, but he stuck around to produce a .252/.363/.377 slash line in 108 games. Tauchman proved to be a valuable fourth outfielder in 2023, which should remain valuable to the Cubs even if both Bellinger and top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong are on the Opening Day roster. Nick Madrigal - 1 year, $1.81 million Year of arbitration: 2 of 4 Following the DFA of reliever Codi Heuer earlier in the offseason, Madrigal is all that remains from the ill-fated Craig Kimbrel trade, though the soon-to-be 27-year-old finally established some major-league credentials last season. When available, his defense was shockingly brilliant at third base (10 Outs Above Average), and his blue-chip tool of being a contact maven remained intact, as his contact rate (92.2%) was among the best figures in baseball. Where Madrigal fits on the roster after the Michael Busch trade is anyone’s guess, but the diminutive infielder can still provide value on the diamond. Mark Leiter Jr. - 1 year, $1.5 million Year of arbitration: 1 of 3 Leiter was a mystery coming into last season, having been DFA’d the prior winter to make room on the 40-man roster. It’s a good thing the Cubs were able to retain him in the organization, as Leiter, 32, delivered a 3.50 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 64 ⅓ innings. His splitter ranked among the best pitches in all of baseball in 2023, which helped him dominate left-handed batters to the tune of a .185 average against and .568 OPS. He did struggle in September after he lost a feel for his best pitch due to fatigue, though the Cubs are hoping he’ll regain his top form after a full offseason to rest. Julian Merryweather - 1 year, $1.175 million Year of arbitration: 1 of 3 Yet another bullpen breakout in 2023, Merryweather was a late-offseason pickup last year, as the Cubs plucked him off waivers from the Blue Jays. The hardest thrower in the bullpen (besides Daniel Palencia, perhaps), Merryweather gave the Cubs a 3.38 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 72 innings. He’ll slot back into the late-game reliever rotation alongside Leiter to form the bridge to Alzolay, giving the Cubs some much-needed stability in their bullpen. The Cubs saved a small amount on these deals, relative to these players' projected arbitration salaries from MLB Trade Rumors. The question, now, is whether they'll turn out to be a good value or not, and that has much more to do with their performance than with their payment. Which of these deals stand out to you? How are you feeling about the Cubs' middle class, in terms of service time, heading into 2024? View full article

The 2023-24 MLB offseason is more than halfway over, and every single team has added at least one player to their major-league roster. Every team, that is, except the Chicago Cubs. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports I promise, I’d like to be more positive than this. I like it when the Cubs are good, and when they’re adding good players to their team. Unfortunately, the Cubs haven’t been good for a few years now, and they haven’t added a single player to the team, let alone a good one, all winter. There’s real cognitive dissonance at play here, especially when you consider how close the Cubs felt to making some noise late last season. Hell, the team shocked everyone by buying at the 2023 trade deadline, opting to bring in talent like third basemen Jeimer Candelario (now on the Reds) rather than shipping away obvious trade bait like Marcus Stroman or Cody Bellinger. It all serves to make their inactivity this deep into the offseason that much more confusing. We’ve talked at length about the Cubs’ penchant for patience, and their desire to find a good deal. Belaboring those points here will only induce more aggravation than is necessary. Instead, it’s time to look at Cubs’ decision-making process through the macro lens of the sport itself. The Collective Bargaining Agreement is meant (in part) to act as a set of guardrails, to protect players, owners, and, ideally, the long-term parity of baseball. Within that lengthy legislation is a set of clauses specifically designed to level the playing field between the two prevailing classes of MLB franchises: the big-market teams and the small-market teams. Dive into the nitty-gritty of the details if you like, but the most important thing to highlight is that small-market teams receive a collection of assets to help them compete with the (should-be) free spenders of the league. Those assets include, but are not limited to: competitive-balance picks in the amateur draft, extra cap space in their international signing bonus pool, and revenue-sharing dollars. Not all of the compensatory allowances are directly funneled into the baseball operations side of a franchise; there have been many reports of small-market owners simply pocketing their slice of the revenue-sharing pie. Regardless, the reason those teams get these accommodations in the first place is because of the hypothetical difference between their payrolls, and the payrolls of teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs. Spending doesn’t guarantee anything (the 2023 Mets and Padres could host a seminar on that topic), but it does create a floor. The more money allocated to the payroll, the better the players on the team will be. Inexpensive, young talent will always be the lifeblood of the sport, but established veterans capable of producing at a consistent, All-Star level are required to navigate the tumult of an entire season, regardless of their cost. Thus, small-market teams field competitive rosters by leveraging their additional resources on the prospect side of things, and big-market teams do so by spending money on players who have already established themselves at the MLB level. In effect, the Cubs are actively putting themselves at a disadvantage by not outspending their rivals to a degree commensurate with their financial advantages. The only times the Cubs have exceeded the luxury-tax threshold in the last 20 years wer in their World Series championship season (when they barely exceeded it, by roughly $3 million) of 2016, and in their massively disappointing 2019 decline-phase campaign. Paying the luxury tax isn’t a prerequisite to winning the World Series, but being willing to do so aids in the ability to flesh out a roster during competitive windows. Artificially capping the budget, whether it’s by the mandate of the Ricketts family or the front office’s internal philosophy, is keeping the Cubs in the middle class of MLB teams: they’re too big to receive competitive-balance considerations, but unwilling to spend with the tycoons on the coasts. The Cubs have done good work to get to this new competitive window so quickly, after slamming the last one closed. The farm system is among the best in baseball, the long-term accounting books are clean, and there’s a symbiotic relationship being developed between manager Craig Counsell and the front office. All the pieces are in place to challenge the league’s elite organizations. The question now is whether the Cubs will actually allow themselves to do what’s necessary to get there. View full article

It's also worth noting that the way the MLB is currently constructed (via the CBA) is that teams like the Cubs are EXPECTED to spend big. The small market teams get compensation draft picks, extra international signing bonus pools, revenue sharing dollars, etc. The Cubs are actively putting themselves at a disadvantage by not spending.

Jed Hoyer has a reputation for being patient. It often serves the Cubs well. This offseason, however, Jed’s greatest virtue might be betraying him and the team. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA Today This is a companion piece to another I wrote regarding the Cubs’ modus operandi of sticking close to their internal player valuations. There, I was fair and holistic, analyzing how the organization-wide patience has both helped and hurt the Cubs in the past and present. This follow-up, however, is a condemnation of the Cubs for their inflexibility and unwillingness to adapt to the baseball landscape around them. Depending on whom you consult, the proverb “patience is a virtue” dates to at least the 1300s, and perhaps as far back as the fifth century (from the epic poem, Psychomachia). That little history lesson may not be entirely relevant to the Chicago Cubs of Major League Baseball in the year 2024, but it is a useful reminder that, in most disciplines in life, patience is a good quality to have. Sports are not like most disciplines. When the monetary value of the dollar increases rapidly in the real world, it skyrockets in the sphere of athletics. Valuations of sports teams long ago left the stratosphere, now entering territory that feels as much imaginary as merely gaudy. Year Value of Chicago Cubs 2003 $335 million 2013 $1 billion 2023 $4.1 billion Shohei Ohtani just signed a contract worth $700 million (your jokes about deferrals are appreciated), and then the same team that signed hhim turned around and handed Tyler Glasnow $136 million and Yoshinobu Yamamoto $325 million. Making “smart” deals is good business, but refusing to rescale your budget as the market shifts is not. In a vacuum, it’s easy to make a case that none of those three players are worth the money the Dodgers gave them. Ohtani’s pitching future is in doubt after a second Tommy John surgery, Glasnow has never thrown more than 120 innings in a year, and Yamomoto just earned the most expensive contract for a pitcher in MLB history even though he’s never thrown a pitch in the league before. That’s an obscene amount of risk on a $1.15 billion investment. Now, in the same breath, take a look at every roster in the National League. There isn’t a single team that can compete with the raw star power of the Dodgers, and only the Atlanta Braves deserve to even be mentioned in the same conversation of the NL’s true hegemon. Yes, the Dodgers have won the division every year since 2012 (besides 2021) and only won the World Series once (during the pandemic season), but what they’ve done should be the goal of every team: putting together an exceptionally competitive roster. Naturally, this is a good place for one of Jed’s favorite disclaimers: winning the offseason does not guarantee winning the season. In an interview with The Athletic before the Winter Meetings this year, Hoyer explained his approach. “As I’ve said a lot of times over the years, winning the offseason is probably more curse than blessing. Cody Bellinger wasn’t exactly a move that people were lauding tremendously last year, and it was probably one of the best free-agent signings on the market," he said. "You just don’t know where the best deals are going to come from. Certainly, there are immensely talented players on the market, but I think if you go in thinking it’s one of those guys or bust, you can make some really bad long-term decisions.” That attitude has helped the Cubs avoid onerous deals that clog up the payroll, like Anthony Rendon on the Angels or Carlos Rodón on the Yankees. It’s also the reason the Cubs began last season with Eric Hosmer, Luis Torrens, and Trey Mancini eating starts at first base and designated hitter, which probably cost them a couple of games in a year where they fell one game shy of the last Wild Card berth. There’s still a number of good players available, to be sure. Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Shota Imanaga are a trio of lefties with high-end starter upside. Josh Hader, David Robertson, and Jordan Hicks are a few late-game relievers with a track record of being a closer. Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and J.D. Martinez have the power and pedigree that could help transform the Cubs lineup, and each of them play positions at which the Cubs desperately need reinforcements. In a vacuum, signing any of those guys would make a lot of sense for the Cubs. But baseball doesn’t happen in a vacuum. There are other teams bidding for these players' services, each of which are only getting more antsy as each talented player comes off the board. And in a year in which the NL Central is wide open, the Cubs have done absolutely nothing to establish themselves as the cream of the crop. The Cubs can continue to be patient. In all likelihood, they will. Winning the offseason doesn’t guarantee winning the actual season, after all. But while the Dodgers and Braves can rest on their laurels, armed with as much leverage and talent as any organization in baseball, the Cubs will be forced to scour the remains of the market, battling it out in the trenches with other teams growing as desperate as they are. And they only have themselves to blame. View full article

Hi all. Hope you have a Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays/Good New Years. Excited for 2024 and what's to come for the Cubs and NSBB!

The 2023 offseason has been trudging along in earnest for some time now, and the Cubs have been patiently sitting on their hands. Though it left fans antsy for any news, Jed Hoyer and company have long prided themselves on being calculated rather than reactionary. Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports The good news is that the Cubs aren’t the only team that has sat out the free agent market entirely so far; by mid-December, they are one of eight teams not to spend a guaranteed dollar on a free agent. It is worth noting, however, that many teams in that bunch have participated in the trade market, like the Yankees and Padres in their blockbuster Juan Soto trade. Rarely has a Cubs’ transaction over the last half-decade been perfunctory. Not all moves work out, of course. That’s the nature of the game, and why retrospectives exist in the first place; the goal is to be right as often as possible, rather than being perfect. At this exact moment, both in the 2023-2024 offseason and the general baseball zeitgeist, it feels like the Cubs aren’t getting enough done. While the Dodgers flex their financial muscles by shelling out over $1 billion to two (exceptionally and uniquely talented) players and the Yankees trade a king’s ransom for Soto, the Cubs are being patient. So far, the only moves the Cubs have made have been of the minor-league free-agent variety, with the most notable being Jorge Alfaro’s signing, designed to shore up the depth at catcher. The Cubs, as has been lamented by fans all offseason, are in a unique position to add to their team aggressively: the accounting books are relatively clean for the foreseeable future, and the division is wide open for the taking. As each subsequent Cubs’ target comes off the board, the desperation grows, the anxiousness in the fanbase becoming more and more palpable. For better or worse, the constant clamoring from fans won’t sway the front office. Last offseason, when rumors began to spread that the Cubs may target TWO of free agency’s “big four” shortstops - Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, and Trea Turner - the team held firm, sticking to their internal valuation of each player rather than adjusting on the fly to the market’s sudden preference for longer-term, lower average annual value deals. Eventually, the Cubs got Swanson at their preferred price point, and the move worked out pretty well for them in year one of the deal. Of course, there comes a point where monetary values for players shift irrevocably, and limiting the franchise’s willingness to pay at yesterday’s prices means the Cubs won’t get today’s product. Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were so unique in their profiles for a myriad of reasons (not the least of which was that both reportedly wanted to go to the Dodgers all along), and blaming the Cubs for securing neither is an exercise in futility. However, missing out on Tyler Glasnow is a little less acceptable, even if his extension with the Dodgers was quite generous. Not acquiring Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, or some other high-upside arm will be an abject failure in the face of the current roster’s needs. The team also needs consistent, run-producing bats at first base and designated hitter. Another year of an Eric Hosmer or Trey Mancini-style experiment would cause a mutiny on social media. The offseason is far from over. Plenty of players are still on the board, both in free agency and on the trade market. The Cubs have a consensus top-three farm system with which to dangle bait, and they have upwards of $50+ million to shell out. There’s no reason to expect the roster to remain as it is today, even if it feels more like blind faith than empirically backed confidence. How the Cubs recover from a disappointing first half of the offseason is anyone’s guess, but the team knows there’s an impending clock. Jed Hoyer may be as patient as any executive in baseball, but even he can’t wait out the market forever. The team is on the cusp of breaching into the second-tier of contenders in the National League (behind the juggernauts on the coasts, the Dodgers and Braves), and as many teams before them have shown, anything can happen once you make the playoffs. The offseason is still young, but it won’t last forever. Tick, tick. View full article

The Cubs have been a haven for Japanese players in recent years, winning the Yu Darvish free agency tour and convincing Seiya Suzuki to make his MLB debut in the blue pinstripes. Before them, however, was Kosuke Fukodome. Kosuke Fukodome was a star for the Chunichi Dragons of the Nippon Professional Baseball League (NPB) after being drafted by them in the first round of the 1998 NPB draft. He helped lead them to a championship in his rookie season and famously stopped another Japanese baseball icon, Hideki Matsui, from winning the league Triple Crown in 2002 by winning the batting title with a .343 average. Eventually, he would go on to win the Central League MVP award in 2006, after he hit .351 with 31 home runs and 104 RBIs. After his star turn in the NPB, Fukodome became a free agent after the 2007 season, and he signed with the Cubs on December 11 of that same year. The Cubs gave him a four-year, $48 million contract to be their primary right fielder, as he was set to replace Jacque Jones (traded to Detroit) and Cliff Floyd (contract option declined). Fukodome told reporters at the time that he chose the Cubs specifically because he wanted to be remembered as the first Japanese-born player to play for the historic franchise. Kosuke would make his MLB debut on March 31, 2008 against the Brewers. His debut was a choice one: he went three-for-three that featured a double on the first pitch he saw, and of course he hit a legendary game-tying, three-run homer off Eric Gagné (the only relief pitcher of the last 30 years to win a Cy Young award) in the bottom of the ninth. In what is perhaps the single-most niche trivia answer of all time, Kosuke Fukodome is the only batter to ever hit a home run on opening day off of a relief pitcher who had previously won a Cy Young award. Fukodome earned an all-star selection for his first-half efforts, and would eventually go on to finish sixth in the rookie of the year balloting. However, much like the modern Cubs' Japanese-born star, Seiya Suzuki, Fukodome had a hot start to his debut season that fizzled out as the year wore on. He batted .327 in April of 2008, and then each subsequent month had a lower batting average than the last, culminating in a ghastly .178 batting average in September of his rookie season (he was also helpless against the Dodgers in the NLDS that year, going just one-for-ten with four strikeouts at the plate). Though he never quite lived up to the promise that first month showed, he was a valuable part of the roster in the years that followed. In his sophomore season, Kosuke moved to center field after the Cubs traded for Milton Bradley [in hindsight: yikes], and eventually usurped Alfonso Soriano for the leadoff gig in the batting order. Despite putting up a rather mediocre 4.7 WAR in four seasons with the Cubs, he was a fan favorite for his energy and love of the game, and his jersey was actually the best selling on the Cubs for multiple months during the 2010 season. Fukodome's tenure with the franchise ended when they traded him to the now-Cleveland Guardians at the 2011 trade deadline, receiving outfield prospect Abner Abreu and pitching prospect Carlton Smith in return. He would go on to finish his stateside career with the White Sox (on a major-league deal) and Yankees (minor-league deal) in 2012. He returned to the NPB and played for the Hanshin Tigers (where he had a late-career resurgence), before ultimately ending his career with two more years with his original team, the Dragons. Fukodome retired on September 23, 2022 at the age of 45. In a slightly-more interesting trivia fact, he was the final active player in the NPB who had played at least one game in the 1990s. Of course, Fukodome's impact on the Cubs stretches far, far beyond whatever on-field value he provided the team. He paved the way for many more Japanese stars to follow, especially in relation to the Cubs. He helped the team make pitches to both Yu Darvish and Suzuki, and though it's unclear if he's doing the same in the Cubs' pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, his comfortability with and love of Chicago and Cubs fans have made the team a premier destination for NPB stars. It may be a rudimentary assessment of things (someone was going to the be the first Japanese player on the Cubs), but without Fukodome, there’s no telling if the Cubs would have ever had So Taguchi, Koji Uehara, Hisanori Takashi, Munenori Kawaski, Darvish, Kyuji Fujikawa, Tsuyoshi Wada, or Suzuki. That pipeline, even more than his time with the team, is Kosuke Fukodome’s Cubs legacy. View full article

Throughout baseball history, two pitchers have won three Silver Slugger Awards and have at least three top-five Cy Young award finishes in their careers. One of those players is Hall of Famer Tom Glavine. The other? The Cubs' very own Carlos Zambrano. Image courtesy of North Side Baseball & Brock Beauchamp The Cubs signed Carlos Zambrano out of Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, on July 12, 1997. By his third year in pro ball, he was a reliever at Triple-A Iowa, leading to his highest prospect ranking of 68 by Baseball America. Zambrano debuted in August of 2001 and would become a fixture in the Cubs’ rotation for the next decade. The pitcher affectionately referred to as “Big Z,” threw 209+ innings in five consecutive seasons from 2003-2007, combining workhorse stamina with occasionally elite results. He led the league in walks allowed in 2006 and 2007 (not to mention when he led the league in hit-by-pitch with 20 in 2004). Still, he was also uniquely gifted at keeping the ball in the ballpark, only allowing more than one home run per nine innings once in his Cubs tenure (his final season with the team). Zambrano earned All-Star selections in 2004, 2006, and 2008, which was a reflection of his pitching prowess. However, Zambrano was also known as a legitimate threat at the plate, with three seasons of a .300+ batting average. He also had three years of leading all pitchers in home runs hit, each of which coincided with his three Silver Slugger awards. The Cubs re-signed Zambrano to a five-year, $91.5 million extension in August of 2007, still the most lucrative in-house extension the Cubs have ever handed out. Though Zambrano’s best days were behind him at this point, he was still the ace of a team that won the NL Central in 2008 with 97 wins and was the number one seed in the National League that season. “El Toro” was a consistently good pitcher through some important years in Cubs history, but Cubs fans loved him for his temperament and emotions on the mound. He had several famous outbursts pointed at umpires, opponents, and teammates alike, as his passion for baseball was plain to see. From home runs to postseason starts, Zambrano had several memorable highlights with the Cubs. However, his no-hitter on September 14, 2008, against the Houston Astros permeates fans’ memories to this day. The circumstances surrounding that game were wild enough - Hurricane Ike had forced the Cubs and Astros to play at Miller Park (making it the only no-hitter in MLB history to be pitched at a neutral site) - though the historical context was just as incredible. It was the first no-hitter for the Cubs since Milt Pappas’ near-perfect game in 1972 against the Padres, ending the second-longest drought between no-hitters in franchise history. Zambrano’s Cubs tenure officially ended when the Cubs traded him to the Miami Marlins on January 5, 2012, in exchange for Chris Volstad. However, his foot was already out the door after being placed on the “disqualified players list” in August of the previous season following one of his patented emotional outbursts. That season with the Marlins was his final year in the majors, though he attempted failed comebacks in 2013 (with the Phillies) and 2018 (in independent ball). One of the few successfully developed pitching prospects the franchise has had in recent decades, Big Z never quite reached the stratospheric heights some believed he was capable of. However, his big personality at the plate and on the mound endeared him to a generation of Cubs fans, hence his popularity today. View full article

The Winter Meetings, which will be held this year in Nashville from December 4th-7th, are nearly upon us. The annual convention of players, agents, executives, and managers is often rife with rumors and a time of concentrated transactions that promise to shift the baseball landscape in the upcoming season. Before the proceedings begin, let’s take a look at what’s on the Cubs agenda. Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Rumor Roundup Shohei Ohtani - Perhaps the single most sought-after free agent in the history of the sport (even if his arm injury dampened the hype somewhat), Ohtani is playing his tour of interested teams extremely close to the vest. Rumors suggest that he'll actually punish teams who leak information about his meetings, though perhaps that plays into the Cubs' hands. Jed Hoyer and company have always been stealthy when it comes to transactions (see: Craig Counsell hiring). Right now, everything we know about Ohtani still suggests the Dodgers are the favorite (MLB insider Mark Feinsand even said that he'd take the Dodgers over the field when predicting Ohtani's next team), but the Cubs are a "serious threat to land him". He's undoubtedly the cog that's jamming the proverbial transaction machine right now, and once he decides where he'll ply his trade for the next decade, teams can begin to chart the rest of their offseason course. Yoshinobu Yamamato/Shoto Imanaga - Two more Japanese icons are free agents this winter, though they're coming over via the posting system from the Nippon Professional Baseball League. Yamamoto is likely to receive a contract in excess of $200 million, while many experts are forecasting a contract similar to the one Kodai Senga got from the Mets last year for Imanaga. Yamamoto is probably going to be many teams' Plan 1-B to Ohtani's 1-A, though he should have a greater volume of interested teams thanks to his age (he's currently 25), his health (no major injuries or surgeries yet), and his contract demands (the total value of his contract is likely to be less than half of Ohtani's, even with the posting fee). Imanaga is older and less dominant, though he's just as much of a known quantity, with strikingly consistent results. He's in the Sonny Gray tier of starters and should not be considered a mere "consolation prize". The Cubs have been heavily connected to both, though Imanaga is a much more likely target regardless of if they strike out on Ohtani. If they do land Shohei, it remains to be seen if the Cubs would even be willing to play in Imanaga's expected average annual value range. Shane Bieber/Tyler Glasnow - The Cubs are known suitors of two of the available aces on the trade market, with the Rays a particular fit given their desire for a young, controllable starting pitcher who has already reached the major leagues. The Cubs have Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, and Jordan Wicks, who all fit that mold, though Wicks is probably too much for Glasnow alone. The Reds, Red Sox and Braves have also been commonly-mentioned pursuers of those hurlers, and teams with deep farm systems and pockets like the Yankees and Dodgers shouldn't be ruled out if the free-agent class shows them the cold shoulder. Each pitcher only has one year of control remaining: Glasnow has a $25 million salary in 2024, while Bieber is projected at $12 million in his final year of arbitration. An extension with either would likely be a priority for whoever snags them, but their proximity to free agency should drive the prospect cost to acquire them down. Team Needs: Corner Infield - With Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario both free agents--and both rumored not be priorities for the Cubs heading into the offseason--the Cubs desperately need to shore up what's been a problem spot on the roster since Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant were jettisoned two years ago. Players like Justin Turner, Brandon Belt, and Evan Longoria are long-established MLB veterans who can capably play either third or first base, on what would likely be a relatively cheap one-year deal. The Cubs can offer them a legit chance to play for a playoff contender. More glamorous options exist on the trade market, Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman chief among them. They’ve both reportedly been dangled ahead of their final year before hitting free agency, and the Cubs would love to add that kind of right-handed power to the middle of the lineup. It’s been reported that the Cubs will leverage the trade market to apply pressure to free agents, so these kinds of blockbuster deals (or a Juan Soto trade) will likely have to wait until the latter half of the offseason. Starting Pitcher - While the Cubs need a staff ace (hence their pursuits of Bieber, Glasnow, Imanaga, and Yamamoto), they'll probably look to sign a mid-rotation arm to replace the quality innings Marcus Stroman gave them over the last two years. The market is deep with pitchers in this tier: Lucas Giolito, Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Hyun Jin Ryu, and James Paxton are just a few of the names on the market. Obviously, not all of those pitchers are created equal (Montas missed all of last season with injury, for instance, while Montgomery was the de facto staff ace on the World Series-winning Rangers), but they’re all veterans with upside who shouldn’t command a contract on par with Blake Snell or Yamamoto. The Cubs do have a lot of young starting pitching depth, but they have to go into next season with more known quantities. Bullpen Help - Under the stewardship of Hoyer, the Cubs haven't been keen to dive into the deep end of the reliever free-agent pool. The last multi-year deal they gave to a reliever was Craig Kimbrel's infamous mid-season, three-year contract, and the last one they handed out during an offseason was to Brian Duensing in 2017 (which was only a two-year, $7-million contract). However, rumors have spread that the Cubs believe Counsell has a particular acumen for maximizing his relievers, and perhaps they'd be willing to shell out big money for the right guys. Josh Hader is probably going to be too big of a jump for the front office (despite his familiarity with Counsell), but the fact the Cubs are even being mentioned in his market is telling. Guys like Hector Neris, Jakob Junis, and old friends Andrew Chafin and David Robertson would be good fits and shouldn't break the bank. Third Catcher - It’s not going to be a priority for Hoyer or GM Carter Hawkins, but finding a solid, dependable third option behind the plate is paramount, especially since Yan Gomes is heading into his age-36 season. Mitch Garver is a name that’s been thrown around, but he’ll likely receive a contract that’s too rich for the Cubs’ blood, thanks to his bat. It’s more likely the Cubs sign someone closer to Spring Training on a minor-league deal, but don’t be surprised if they sneak a veteran catcher signing onto the transaction sheet in Tennessee. Miscellaneous Notes: Coaching Staff - There are still openings on Counsell's staff, though the bench coach role was just filled by Ryan Flaherty. It may not be as big of a priority as, say, Ohtani or Glasnow, but the longer the Cubs wait, the less likely they are to get their preferred options. They retained a lot of in-house coaching talent after the transition from David Ross, but getting a few more of "Counsell's guys" in the clubhouse would only help. Roster Crunch - The Cubs have 37 players currently on their 40-man roster, before any outside additions are made this offseason. Those three free slots will fill up quickly, after which the Cubs will have some difficult decisions to make on roster bubble guys like Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal. Who gets designated for assignment or traded first will likely point to which positions the Cubs are being most aggressive on in trades and free agency. International Prospect Signings - The international signing period resets on December 15th. The Cubs reportedly signed four players with their remaining bonus pool money this year, and they are currently projected as the favorites to land top international prospect Fernando Cruz once the next window opens. Rule 5 Draft - The Cubs left a few players exposed for the Rule 5 Draft, including catcher Pablo Aliendo and pitcher Kohl Franklin, though none are particularly likely to be selected (and if they are, it’s possible they won’t meet the requirement of sticking on the drafting team’s major league roster for the full 2024 season). It’s also unlikely the Cubs will select anyone when their turn in the draft order arrives (they haven’t done so since they picked Trevor Megill in 2019), but it’s possible there’s a versatile bench bat or power arm they believe they can work with. Or maybe they’re still scarred from the famous under-the-table Josh Hamilton deal with the Reds. MLB Draft Lottery - For the second time, this event will lend some automatic fun and intrigue to the Meetings. The Cubs are most likely to pick 16th or 17th, but the lottery gives them a small chance to pick in the top six. The Nationals, who had a worse record than the Cubs last year and would theoretically have better lottery odds, are excluded from the process this year because they picked 2nd in 2023 and are revenue sharing payers. The Mets and Padres will both have their positions pushed back 10 picks because of their aggressive 2023 spending, and it's likely (though not guaranteed) that that pushes at least the Padres past the Cubs in any draft order. It would take extraordinary luck for the Cubs to pick in the top six, but some chance does exist. View full article

Following a tumultuous 2023 season for the division, an important offseason looms for all five NL Central squads. However, before any groundbreaking moves are made, are the Cubs already the favorites to take home the division crown in 2024? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs finished 2023 with 83 wins, finishing second in the division and nine games behind the first-place Brewers. They'll be retaining a majority of their roster; however, as is starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, reigning National League Comeback Player of the Year Cody Bellinger is likely to depart in free agency. Rumors have spread like wildfire about some players the Cubs will seriously pursue, including the "Big Three" Japanese free agents: Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shota Imanaga. Of course, the Cubs have already made one of their most significant offseason moves, as they stunned the baseball world by signing manager Craig Counsell away from the Brewers. How that move improves the team has been discussed at length, but it's safe to say Counsell coming to Chicago not only makes the Cubs better but also makes the Brewers worse. Add that to the recent Brandon Woodruff non-tender (which was injury-related) and the rumors swirling around a potential Corbin Burnes trade (with the Cubs even mentioned as possible suitors), and you have the makings of Milwaukee taking a step back in 2024. Elsewhere in the central, the Reds finished just a game behind the Cubs last season, and they possess some truly exciting talent, led by a glut of infield prospects. Elly De La Cruz is the name that garners the most buzz (and for good reason), but they also have Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, and others. The issue in Cincinnati is the pitching or lack thereof. Reds pitchers had an unsightly 4.83 ERA last year, which ranked 25th in the league, and their lack of movement at the deadline (only trading for stop-gap reliever Sam Moll) despite their midseason surge was telling. It's unlikely they'll be that complacent this offseason, but the Reds have never been big spenders, and pitcher salaries are only increasing. Speaking of, what the hell is going on in St. Louis? They just signed back-of-the-rotation arms Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to $10+ million deals, following a season in which their pitchers had a 4.81 ERA (only one spot ahead of the Reds). The only pitcher in the rotation with any recent track record of success is Miles Mikolas, and all of us around here know the problems Willson Contreras has on the defensive and game-planning side of the plate. St. Louis has an impressive offense led by Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, but that only got them to a last-place finish in the central last year. Barring a massive overhaul to the major league pitching staff - with a budget that also lands No. 2 on the list flux because of the Diamond Sports RSN bankruptcy - it’s hard to peg the Cardinals as anything more than fringe Wild Card contenders heading into next season. Lastly, the Pirates finished fourth in the NL Central in 2023, though they are the team least likely to make any substantial outside additions this winter. They have a strong farm system and a load of young talent at the big league level (not to mention the return of wunderkind Oneil Cruz from injury), yet the whole of the team doesn’t pose much of a threat. As is a running theme in this division, the Pirates also yearn for more consistent pitching, as only starter Mitch Keller and closer (and trade candidate) David Bednar have proven their major league bonafides. Admittedly, this early-offseason preview paints a less-than-rosy picture of the NL Central gamut heading into 2024. No team stands out as an apparent divisional favorite, let alone a World Series contender. However, the Cubs can’t control what division they play in, and as things currently stand, it’s hard to argue they aren’t the most complete team of the bunch. Though winning the division is the first step toward something bigger, it isn’t enough to be the least dull knife in the kitchen. Hopefully, the Cubs will press their foot down on the gas pedal this offseason and enter next year as the resounding favorites to own the National League Central. View full article

The 1615 hits stat was specifically before he turned 30-years old (it ranks 47th all time before a player's 30th birthday).