Brandon Glick

Once the Cubs’ most reliable reliever, Keegan Thompson has quickly fallen out of favor in Chicago. Does he have any hope of reclaiming his past glory? Image courtesy of © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK A third-round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, Keegan Thompson initially moved quickly through the Cubs’ farm system, reaching Double-A Tennessee as a starter before the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor-league season. The Cubs still added the young righthander to the 40-man roster before the 2021 season, and he would eventually debut as a reliever against the Cincinnati Reds on May 2 of that year. It was in 2022 that Thompson really took off. He started in 17 games and pitched in 12 others, accumulating 115 innings in 29 total appearances. His 3.76 ERA was loosely corroborated by a 4.40 FIP, and he was 11% better than league average by ERA+. By the end of the season, he and Brandon Hughes were then-manager David Ross’s preferred options out of the pen. Both of those pitchers entered 2023 with high expectations, with roster spots and roles guaranteed at the commencement of spring training. Then, things went awry. Hughes showed up to camp with lower body issues and fatigue, and his season never got off the ground. He’s now in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization. Thompson had a similarly slow start to camp, though he made the Opening Day roster in 2023. Unfortunately, he was largely ineffective, pitching to a 2-2 record with a 4.22 ERA, 14 walks and 16 strikeouts in 15 relief appearances. The lack of command was startling after the gains he made in 2022 (3.4 BB/9). As such, the Cubs wanted to give him a chance to work out his kinks after a delayed start to the campaign. He was optioned to Triple-A Iowa on May 19, with many speculating about a hidden injury or a lingering dead arm. In 16 outings with the Iowa Cubs, he went 2-0 with a 9.36 ERA, with his command still presenting an issue. Thompson went on to finish the season with the major-league Cubs, giving up five runs in seven innings in four (mostly) mop-up appearances. It was a precipitous fall from grace, and his roster spot is a giant question mark heading into the upcoming season. For one thing, the Cubs bullpen is mostly settled already: Adbert Alzolay, Héctor Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. are well established as the team’s late-inning arms. Beyond them, Yency Almonte is a recent trade addition with a few good seasons under his belt and no minor league options remaining. Luke Little and Daniel Palencia are young, power arms who finished 2023 with the major-league team after meteoric rises through the farm system. Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad are all long relief options (assuming Jordan Wicks claims the fifth starter role in the rotation) who’ve had success throwing multiple innings in the past. That’s 10 guys for eight spots, and it doesn't include Thompson, José Cuas, and non-roster invitees Carl Edwards Jr., Richard Lovelady, Thomas Pannone, and Edwin Escobar, among others. The team also has a wave of prospects with lively arms - Ben Brown, Cam Sanders, and Riley Thompson chief among them - that could make a case for a relief role sooner, rather than later. The roster crowding is becoming untenable, and Thompson’s 40-man spot was just proven exceptionally valuable when the Cubs traded Bailey Horn for Matt Thompson to clear space for the addition of Cody Bellinger. Thompson has always had the makings of a big-league reliever, as he’s comfortable throwing all three of his main pitches (four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball) to both left and right-handed hitters. In 2022, Thompson threw 891 fastballs (449 to righties, 442 to lefties); 404 cutters (227 to righties, 177 to lefties); and 329 curveballs (161 to righties, 168 to lefties). As a result, he’s generally been split-neutral throughout his career, though lefties hit him well last year after he mostly abandoned his changeup. The key to Thompson’s success is throwing the fastball high and the cutter inside, which allows him to tunnel his curveball down in the zone. At this point, all bets on Thompson are off. No one should be counting on him being a major contributor this season, and he’s just as likely to find himself off the 40-man roster entirely as he is to be in Chicago to open the 2024 season. That being said, it was just two years ago that he was the Cubs’ most reliable arm in the bullpen. If he’s over the injuries and fatigue that cost him a portion of last year, there’s a possibility he returns to form as a multi-inning arm. And make no mistake about it, that version of Thompson is a valuable thing, even for a Cubs team overloaded with long-relief options. Expect Thompson to begin the year in Iowa’s bullpen as a depth arm, waiting for a need to arise on the major-league roster and tries to prove he's worthy of the opportunity to fill it. However, if he gets his chance to reestablish himself in manager Craig Counsell’s circle of trust, don’t be shocked if Thompson is pitching in key games down the stretch for a team with high expectations for this upcoming season. View full article

I'm sure the Cubs will take advantage of resting guys with that DH spot if they can. It's also nice having the luxury of multiple gold glovers (Happ, Belli, Hoerner, Swanson, and even Suzuki won some in Japan) all over the diamond. They can rest any of them on any given day and not lose a step. All the more important that Morel finds his home - the versatility it'll give the Cubs on an everyday basis is huge.

Morel, of course, has plenty of incentive to find a position. He has a lot more value (to everyone, not just the Cubs), if he can prove himself adequate at third base or left field or wherever. The Cubs' incentive to find him a home is that they need his power. How many legitimate 30+ homer threats are on the roster right now (besides Morel)? One (Suzuki), maybe two (Bellinger) if you're being really generous? If Morel gets consistent playing time at third, he gets 500+ at-bats, and the Cubs can use their DH spot on another hitter. Put another way, if Morel handles third, the Cubs lineup includes Morel at third, plus PCA in center, Belli at first and Busch at DH. If Morel has to DH (and, say, Madrigal plays third), one of Busch, Belli or PCA is dropped from the lineup (or Morel).

As one of the best bats in the Cubs’ lineup, the team has every incentive to find Morel a permanent defensive home during the 2024 season. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports Christopher Morel is a known quantity with his bat. He proved his major league bona fides by posting an .826 OPS in 429 at-bats last year, a big improvement on his already-impressive .741 OPS from his rookie season. By OPS+, he was 16% better than the league average hitter, and his 26 home runs tied for the team lead with Cody Bellinger. He’s as important to the Cubs’ lineup as anyone else on the roster, so manager Craig Counsell aims to bat him in the top half of the order daily. Despite his power-hitting prowess, Morel hasn’t fully established himself as an everyday player, and fans are well-versed in why by now: the 24-year-old can’t find a defensive home. Throughout his time in the minor league, Morel played primarily at second base, though he moonlighted at a handful of other positions. With Nico Hoerner entrenched at the keystone for the Cubs, Morel has shifted around the diamond frequently, playing every single position besides first base and catcher during his time in Chicago. Despite his versatility, he hasn’t settled in anywhere, and he ended up playing more than half (61 of 107) of his games as the designated hitter last year. Of course, Morel has the bat to keep pace with some of the league’s better hitters at DH, but that isn’t the issue. The problem is the Cubs have a hyper-athletic 24-year-old who can’t stick at one position despite, according to Statcast, landing in the 82nd percentile in sprint speed and 99th percentile (!) in arm strength. The Cubs have determined they’ll give Morel the first crack at locking down third base long-term. It’s bound to be a competition - the team has Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Michael Busch, and Miles Mastrobuoni as third base-capable options on the 40-man roster (and top prospect Matt Shaw is already banging down the door to Triple-A Iowa after getting drafted in the first round last year). However, Counsell has thrown his weight behind Morel, telling reporters at camp: “Let’s evaluate that as we go but let’s give him a chance at third base; let’s give him some consistency at third base. ‘See where we’re at roster-wise at some point in camp and then go forward from there." Morel’s predominant issue is his range and instincts; last year, he posted a well-below-average -7 Outs Above Average despite limited playing time in the field. As such, the Cubs have been working with him to improve his first step, and they’ll adjust his positioning relative to the bag to account for his arm strength and shortstop Dansby Swanson’s gold glove range (i.e., they’ll let Morel play closer to the foul line since he can make throws from that distance to first base with ease). Early in Spring Training, Morel has gotten a lot of action at third base, serving as the Cubs’ definitive starter for single-squad games. Some of the results of his hard work have been impressive: Other times, he’s still producing multiple gaffes in the same game, fumbling routine grounders, or air-mailing basic throws across the diamond: https://www.mlb.com/video/christopher-morel-s-intersting-day-at-3rd-base Even with his errors, the Cubs have stuck by Morel, consistently starting him at third and letting him work through his issues. “Hopefully, frankly, [there are] mistakes,” Counsell told reporters after the game against the Los Angeles Angels. “I want mistakes because you learn from mistakes. I want action — balls hit to you. That’s what I’m rooting for in the game. Let’s hit a lot of balls to Christopher Morel. You want that. From that perspective, he’s on the field every morning and getting that accomplished. We’re in good shape.” It will likely be third base or bust for Morel this season in the field. Hoerner and Swanson, respectively, lock down second base and shortstop, and the outfield triumvirate of Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki will be patrolling left, center, and right field as long as they’re all healthy and well-rested. It’s true that, eventually, Pete Crow-Armstrong could push Bellinger back to first base, which could have a domino effect with Michael Busch and Morel, but that’s a conversation best saved for another time. For now, expect Morel to be the Cubs’ starting third baseman on Opening Day. Only time will tell how long their leash is with him at the hot corner, but they’re going to get bat in the lineup, one way or another. Madrigal's defensive performance at third last year has given fans hope that Morel can acclimate himself similarly rapidly, though even if his glove never lives up to its potential, the young slugger will remain a key cog in the team’s plans for contention. View full article

If the competition committee limits the number of pitchers on the major league roster to 12, how will the league (and the Chicago Cubs) respond to the restrictions on their arms? Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports Over the last few seasons, the MLB Competition Committee have instituted a number of rule changes designed to get the game feeling more akin to the sport of old again. Bigger bases were placed on the diamond to incentivize more stolen-base attempts. All pitchers are now forced to face a minimum of three hitters, in order to limit the amount of matchup-hunting managers can do. Pitching mound visits and batter timeouts were given finite limits, to minimize downtime during innings. Perhaps most infamously, the pitch clock was adopted last year, in an effort to shrink overall game times and keep the action flowing smoothly. None of the changes have been met with universal applause - be it from fans, players, or pundits - but the general consensus is that the league has made important strides in keeping fans engaged throughout the entire nine-inning drama of a game. Now, the league is discussing another rule that would restore some of the old game’s charm. With the intention of seeing starting pitchers pitch deeper into games, there have been rumors that MLB may limit teams to 12 pitchers on the major-league roster (down from the current 13). As you might expect, that news has been met with plenty of praise and pushback from both sides of the aisle. On one hand, you have pitchers like Max Scherzer--a luminary of the modern era--who are staunch supporters of seeing pitchers push themselves and carry their teams: “"I became a better pitcher once I went through three times in the lineup and was failing on that third time through the lineup," the 39-year-old Scherzer said. "That's every young pitcher's struggle, is learning how to pitch three times through a lineup. ... We’re so scared now to let guys fail." Current Cub Jameson Taillon also took the affirmative on the potential rule change, though he argued about the benefits of it from the fans’ perspective: "I grew up a fan of the game, and me and my dad used to pick Astros games based on when Roy Oswalt was pitching. We would look at pitching matchups, that's what we would do. Nowadays, I feel like that allure is gone a little bit." Both pitchers’ analysis of the situation is valid, and if there’s anyone out there currently suited to say whether the league should implement a roster restriction policy of this nature, it’s current MLB players. That being said, both Scherzer and Taillon admitted the 12-pitcher limit is a bad idea, and there’s a reason teams and front offices are defending the current roster makeup so vehemently. Having more pitchers available gives more opportunities for rest for relievers, and it also allows teams to present opposing offense with a greater variety of pitching angles, repertoires and velocities. This rule change would all but negate the possibility of the six-man rotation that’s been experimented with by a few teams in recent years. Seven relievers is the bare minimum teams feel they can get by with, especially when considering the recent rise in popularity in the Keegan Thompson/Javier Assad type of long reliever who pitches three to four innings once or twice every turn through the rotation. On top of needing a closer, a few late-inning setup men, and a few arms for matchup duty, this new rule would decimate the dwindling class of middle relievers that still exist. As I examined last week, the Cubs have four starters in place for the 2024 season: Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks, and Taillon. They’re having a fierce competition for the fifth starter spot, which includes Assad and Jordan Wicks (the presumptive favorites), as well as Drew Smyly and Hayden Wesneski, who broke camp last year with places in the rotation. This hypothetical, artificial limit of the number of rosterable relievers wouldn’t crush the Cubs as much as other teams with fewer starting pitcher options, but it would have a great effect on the composition of the roster. Having only 12 pitchers available means that optionable pitchers become that much more valuable. In a sense, under these rumored restrictions, José Cuas would become more valuable than Yency Almonte, since the former can be shuttled up and down between the minor and major leagues this season. (Almonte cannot.) Optionable relievers would allow teams to bring in fresher arms from the minors while the pitchers who just pitched take a few rest days in the minor leagues (and thus, while not on the 26-man roster). The rule would also likely force a few teams’ hands with using the “phantom IL” when in desperate need of a fresh arm, though former New York Mets general manager Billy Eppler was just slammed with major repercussions for abusing the system during his time in New York. Wanting starting pitchers to pitch deeper into games is a noble cause worth pursuing for the Competition Committee. Even if it means ERAs would balloon as starters went through lineups for the third and fourth time, that would only help with another recent mission statement of increasing offense. There would also be less changeover during innings, as managers would have one fewer bullet to use to put out fires during innings. Alas, the game is evolving in the other direction. Analytics, sabermetrics and Statcast data are tremendous tools that have given never-before-seen insight to decision-makers like managers and front office personnel. With knowledge comes liability. Teams won’t simply ignore the data and encourage pitchers to pitch a third time through the order when they have a fireballing, opposite-handed reliever waiting in the bullpen. It’s true that individual teams wouldn’t be able to veto this rule being instituted, but it’s more than likely most would be very upset by it (not to mention a potential grievance filed on behalf on the Major League Baseball Players Association, who would all but certainly argue that further roster constrictions on pitchers is unfair and unjust treatment of primary relievers). The game of baseball is meant to be entertainment, and at the end of the day, baseball is more entertaining when starting pitchers adopt a workhorse mentality. There’s a reason Madison Bumgarner is an October legend and Wade Davis is not, despite the fact that both pitchers were the most valuable arms (by fWAR) on their respective rosters during their teams’ runs to the World Series title. How baseball attempts to incentivize teams to get more out of their starters remains to be seen, but it’s safe to say that any solution will be met with resistance, on multiple fronts. View full article

Despite missing out on the playoffs in a year in which they bought at the Trade Deadline, Cody Bellinger’s re-signing has provided vindication for the Cubs front office's decisions last July. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Eight years ago Monday, the Chicago Cubs made a similar move to this one, re-signing beloved center fielder Dexter Fowler for the 2016 season and reintroducing him to the team--to much fanfare--at camp in Mesa. Though the Cody Bellinger extension may not lead to the same results that Fowler’s did - 2016 was a pretty special season, in case you forgot - it’s still a vitally important move that should make the Cubs the presumptive NL Central favorites heading into the 2024 season. The roster implications are enormous, as the Cubs can now give Pete Crow-Armstrong more time to develop in the minors while taking pressure off Michael Busch and Christopher Morel to be lineup-carrying bats as they attempt to find permanent defensive homes. The team had to bid adieu to promising left-handed reliever Bailey Horn to clear a 40-man roster spot for Bellinger, and they'll assume a $30 million hit to their CBT, but whatever downsides are present are mitigated by the team-friendly aspects of his three-year, $80-million contract, including player options after the first and second seasons. The contract is, of course, a huge win by Jed Hoyer and the front office in their staredown with agent Scott Boras. The Cubs got to bring last year’s team MVP back on their own terms, all while not handing out a long-term contract that would’ve hindered their financial and personnel flexibility. That isn’t the only reason they won with this deal, though. The brain trust also retained a clubhouse and fan favorite who should help galvanize a club with serious expectations in 2024. Beyond even that, though, the front office also received massive vindication for their decision to go for it at the trade deadline last summer. Once Bellinger hurt his knee in Houston in May, rumors swirled for months that the Cubs would, for the third year in a row, sell at the deadline. Instead, Hoyer and company made the bold call to swing for the fences, bringing in rental bat Jeimer Candelario (for prospects Kevin Made and DJ Herz) and reliever José Cuas (for outfielder Nelson Velázquez) ahead of the stretch run of the regular season. By all accounts, those moves failed to accomplish their ultimate goal, as the Cubs collapsed in September and missed out on the final Wild Card spot by one game in the standings. It’s easy to say, with hindsight in hand, that the Cubs should have sold, unloading assets like Bellinger for a few extra prospects. They missed the playoffs anyway, and by choosing to sell, they’d have a higher draft pick and more prospects in hand right now. From a pure roster construction standpoint, selling was the right path to take. However, ignoring the importance of just bringing competitive baseball back to Chicago, that choice to retain Bellinger finally received its ultimate payoff over the weekend. Make no mistake about it: Had the Cubs traded Bellinger away, there is very little chance he would agree to this contract with the team. There is precedent for trading away rentals only to re-sign them - the Yankees did it with the Cubs back in 2016, when they traded Aroldis Chapman to Chicago before re-signing him during the offseason, and the Cubs had done it right before that, with Jason Hammel - but those occasions are rare and often require special circumstances. The Yankees had to hand Chapman the largest-ever (at the time) reliever contract to lure him back to New York. If Bellinger had made the playoffs with an acquiring team, or if he had merely loved their city or clubhouse or fans, odds are he would’ve stuck around with them rather than wait out an entire offseason for the Cubs to capitulate on his contract demands. He'd also have been more expensive and less willing to sign a short-term deal. Because of the hypothetical trade, he'd have been ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in November, and if he'd signed the kind of deal he's now signed, he'd have had to consider having draft compensation attached to him if he opted out in the future. Bellinger might’ve fetched a relative haul at the deadline last summer--certainly more than Candelario cost the Cubs in terms of prospect talent. Yet, somehow, the Cubs improved for 2024 by choosing to buy short-term assets in 2023. Bellinger is back, for this upcoming season at least, and the North Siders are all the better for it. Whatever happens this season, Jed Hoyer has bought himself some much-needed goodwill and patience with Cubs fans. View full article

Love the comment and love the enthusiasm! I think the Bellinger really galvanized the players and the fan base, and came at a pretty good time all things considered (even though I wouldn't have complained back in December...). Agreed that I think Wisdom is mostly likely to go. Definitely not a long term piece for the club, though he has his niche value. Even if the team can't win it all this year, I'd be thrilled just to be in the hunt again. Give me a playoff berth, give me October baseball at Wrigley, and let's see what happens!

My thoughts exactly. I like Thompson, but once the Cubs cut bait with Brandon Hughes, I think whatever goodwill remained from his 2022 performance went out the window

With the 2023 National League Comeback Player of the Year back in tow, what is the domino effect of sliding Bellinger back onto the 40-man roster? Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports In case you (somehow) missed the news, Cody Bellinger is returning to the Chicago Cubs on a Carlos Correa-esque three-year deal, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Whether Bellinger is wearing Cubbie blue for the next three years or just in 2024, the immediate fallout is the same: the Cubs just got a lot better for 2024, and their chances of winning a very winnable division just shot up. It’s the kind of move a team with serious expectations for this upcoming season needed to make, and even if it leaves the Cubs short of the Los Angeles Dodgers-Atlanta Braves tier of super teams, it firmly entrenches them as contenders in an otherwise wide-open National League. In terms of accounting, the deal is technically a three-year, $80 million pact. However, due to its opt-out heavy language, Bellinger will count for a flat $30 million against the competitive balance tax this season (as well as next season, should he opt-in for 2025; his salary in 2026 is just $20 million). Of course, once the deal is official, Bellinger will also need to be placed back on the Cubs’ 40-man roster and, eventually, the 26-man roster once Spring Training is concluded. A slight issue arises here, as the organization’s 40-man is currently full. Given Bellinger’s versatility as an outfielder and first basemen, that’s likely where the Cubs will pull from to make a spot for the former NL MVP. Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, Matt Mervis, Luis Vasquez, and Brennen Davis could reasonably be DFA’d or traded in the coming days as the final terms on Bellinger’s contract are finalized. If the Cubs would prefer to keep their entire trove of position players at camp, they could deplete their pitching depth, likely picking from any of Keegan Thompson, Caleb Kilian, or Jose Cuas to risk losing on waivers. Nick Madrigal The diminutive infielder has some versatility, having played at second base in the minor leagues before impressing in limited work at third base last season. His high-contact approach has been spotty in the major leagues, though, and the team’s infield situation was already crowded before Bellinger agreed to return. Patrick Wisdom Perhaps the most likely player to be DFA’d among the group, Wisdom is pretty much limited to platoon duty at this point in his career. He can hit lefties as well as anyone on the roster, though, and his ability to play third and first base in a pinch may give him enough value in the eyes of the front office to stick around. Miles Mastrobuoni As a lefty bat with super-utility potential in the field, the former Tampa Bay Ray is likely safe even with the left-handed Bellinger back in town. However, outside of a hot stretch down the stretch last year, Mastrobuoni struggled at the plate in 2023, and his leash will be shorter this year. Matt Mervis Somehow, the Cubs just can’t seem to find the space for this guy. Mervis is a powerful lefty who slashed .309/.379/.605 with 36 home runs in the minors in 2022, but he really struggled in a ~100 plate appearance cup of coffee in the majors last year. He could make for an intriguing trade candidate if the Cubs try to do more than release someone. Luis Vasquez It’s highly unlikely, after the Cubs protected him over the offseason and his offensive breakout last year, that Vasquez is in real danger of being DFA’d. He’s got legitimate fielding chops in the middle of the infield, but if the Cubs find a taker wanting to buy on Vasquez’s everyday potential, they could upgrade more than just their lineup with the Bellinger move. Brennen Davis Off to a scorching start this spring, Davis is likely on his last legs with the Cubs after a few injury-plagued seasons. His prospect stock had major helium after he won the Cubs’ Minor Leaguer of the Year award in 2019, but the pandemic and injuries have sapped his hype. With Alexander Canario and Pete Crow-Armstrong already on the 40-man, Davis could be out if the plan is to play Bellinger primarily in center field. Keegan Thompson Arguably the Cubs’ best pitcher in 2022 when he took off in a long-relief role out of the bullpen, Thompson simply hasn’t been able to get back on track after a slow start last season. When right, the righty is as valuable as anyone in the bullpen. Still, the Cubs’ competition for the remaining few reliever slots on the Opening Day roster is already off and running. Thompson’s time may be running out in Chicago. Caleb Kilian With minor-league options remaining, Killian shouldn’t be in real danger of losing his roster spot due to the move for Bellinger. Still, significant struggles in the major leagues have given the Cubs reason to pause on their expectations for the former San Francisco Giants prospect. His stuff still grades out as elite, and if he can ever learn proper command, he’ll be a force in the rotation, but Killian is starting to encroach on thin-ice territory. Jose Cuas The return in the ill-fated Nelson Velasquez trade last summer, Cuas should also be safe due to his remaining minor-league options. The Cubs traded for him due to his unique arm angle, and he could be a surprise in the Opening Day bullpen if he harnesses his unique stuff. What do you think? Who do you think the Cubs should be willing to let go, and who should they be sure to hold onto in the wake of the Cody Bellinger news? View full article

With Spring Training closing in on the calendar and the “Boras Four” still at large, the Cubs need to prepare to open 2024 with a pair of youngsters as the infield bookends. Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri, USA Today Things are far from settled on the positional side for the Chicago Cubs this year. Two of the biggest bats still on the market - Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman - are premier fielders at the two most unsettled spots in the Cubs’ lineup: first base and third base. There’s been plenty said about Bellinger, who had a Comeback Player of the Year-winning season with the Cubs in 2023, and his fit with the Cubs. He could easily play center field while top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong gets a little more seasoning in the minors, or he could immediately take over as the full-time first basemen if PCA is ready right out of the gate this year. His lefty bat would also do wonders for a lineup dominated by righties. For all those reasons, the Cubs are still the presumed favorites to sign the former National League MVP when he finally puts pen to paper. For now, though, Bellinger remains a free agent, and the Cubs must move forward with the guys on the roster. As such, the current projected starters at the infield corners at Wrigley Field are Christopher Morel and Michael Busch. Morel’s profile is well-known around here. He’s a power-hitting “utility” player who hit 26 home runs and posted an .826 OPS in 429 at-bats in his sophomore season. He’s as toolsy as any player the Cubs have had since Javier Baez; in 2023, he had 90th percentile-or-better marks in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage, according to Statcast. When Morel connects, few players in baseball can do as much damage as he can with one swing. Beyond his bat, though, Morel is a gifted athlete. His elite top sprint speed gave way to a 94th percentile added value via baserunning, and his arm strength is nearly peerless. He has the profile of an elite defender at nearly any position, making it so frustrating that he has yet to find a long-term defensive home. 24-year-olds with Morel’s athleticism shouldn’t be starting the lion's share of their games at designated hitter, yet that’s exactly what the Dominican Republic native did last year. Morel’s defensive flexibility has, to this point, resulted from his inability to find a long-term defensive home rather than a benefit of his unique physical gifts. The Cubs and Morel both sound ready to commit him to one position, and both sides apparently want that defensive home to be at the hot corner. According to manager Craig Counsell, he’ll be getting the “majority” of the team’s work there in Spring Training, hoping he’ll run away with the job that has been available since Kris Bryant was shipped out of town. As for Busch, the team acquired him in a larger trade that involved top pitching prospect Jackson Ferris going back to the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was a hefty price for a 26-year-old who has yet to establish himself at the major league level, though the bat is, assuredly, for real. In each season of his minor league climb, Busch’s OPS rose, starting with a .496 mark in 2019 (in a tiny, ten-game sample) before peaking last year at 1.049. Busch should seamlessly fit into the middle of the Cubs’ order as a lefty with power, likely sandwiched between any three of Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and Ian Happ. He could immediately step into Cody Bellinger’s spot in the four-hole, though he likely must prove his major league bona fides to Counsell before being trusted. Of course, should the Cubs get one of Boras’ star position players, Busch would make for a top-flight hitter in the bottom third of the lineup. He has played every position on the infield besides shortstop in his professional career, and he’s even logged a few innings in left and right field each season. Like Morel, his defensive “versatility” isn’t so Ben Zobrist-esque as it is an inability to lock down one spot permanently. Still, Busch is an instinctual fielder who makes routine plays without any headaches. If he does take over first base full-time in 2024, he won’t be the second coming of Anthony Rizzo at the cold corner, but he’ll be a huge improvement over the outright disaster that was the Trey Mancini-Eric Hosmer combo. The Cubs have other options beyond those two: Miles Mastrobuoni, Nick Madrigal, Matt Mervis, and the recently signed Dom Smith can all play at least one of the corner infield positions, and the possibility of Bellinger returning still exists. Mastrobuoni is a versatile defender and can supply a left-handed bat to the lineup (and he finished 2023 on a hot stretch). Madrigal is a high-contact bat who finished fifth among all third basemen with eight DRS last season. Mervis is a powerful lefty who slashed .309/.379/.605 with 36 home runs in the minors in 2022. And Smith is a former top prospect with two seasons on his résumé with an OPS over .880. Like Morel and Busch, those guys have their caveats - even more so than the two projected starters - but they’re valuable depth and competition if nothing else. However, if the Cubs lineup is going to be as potent as possible, with or without Bellinger, then it has to find a way to include Busch and Morel regularly. If that means forcing both guys into a trial by fire at their new, permanent defensive homes on the infield corners, then so be it. View full article

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCade HortonOwen CaissieMatt ShawKevin AlcantaraBen BrownJordan WicksMichael BuschMatt MervisMoises BallesterosJames TriantosAlexander CanarioJefferson RojasBrennen DavisCristian HernandezJaxon WigginsJosh RiveraHaydn McGearyDerniche ValdezBrandon Birdsell

I'm hoping so too. I was really excited when the Cubs got him at the deadline in 2022 (even if I was bummed to see efross go) and I had high hopes for him last year. If he can get his cutter-changeup combo to be more effective in and away from lefties this year, he's the dark horse in this competition.

After years of carrying one or zero left-handed relievers, the Cubs will have a pair of (very) different southpaws in their bullpen in 2024. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports Last year at this time, the Chicago Cubs had one left-handed reliever projected to make the Opening Day roster: Brandon Hughes. When he was sidelined with an injury in spring training, the Cubs elected to open the season with no lefties in their bullpen. They did have Mark Leiter Jr., who has had noticeable reverse-splits in his career thanks to his dominant splitter, but for most of 2023, former manager David Ross had no southpaws to deploy (outside of a few cameos from Anthony Kay). By the end of the 2023 season, that finally changed, thanks to Drew Smyly’s move out of the rotation and Luke Little’s ascension through the minor-league ranks. The two lefties are quite different in their styles. Little is a 6’8” behemoth with a rocket fastball. Smyly is a crafty veteran with a hammer curve. They both saw success in the Chicago bullpen late last year. Craig Counsell, long known for his brilliant bullpen usage in Milwaukee, will have to get creative in his utilization of the two lefties, but they will give the Cubs a luxury they’ve rarely had in recent years. Little’s calling card ability is his proclivity for strikeouts; in his professional career, he’s never dipped below 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), which includes a 14.8 K/9 in 63 2/3 innings in the minors and a 16.2 K/9 in 6 2/3 innings in the Major League last year. The profundity he’s shown for missing bats has, in turn, also made him incredibly difficult to hit, as he has never allowed more than 5.9 hits per nine innings in any of his three professional seasons to date. The massive southpaw has proven preternatural at leveraging his frame and extending towards home plate. Little’s height naturally means his pitched will travel downward more than most, but his throwing platform is what makes him so difficult to hit. With his velocity and frame, the ball “spikes” into the ground out of his hand, the same way it does for elite servers in tennis. It’s the biggest reason why Little has been nearly impossible to square up: in 147 professional innings between the majors and minors, Little has allowed just two home runs. Contrast that with Smyly, who’s been more of a finesse pitcher in recent years and has always conceded more fly balls than most (43.9% fly ball percentage last season). At this point in his career, Smyly is a three-pitch pitcher, primarily using a fastball (38.7% usage last season) and curveball (49.4%), while mixing in a cutter (12.0%). However, Smyly is attempting to expand his arsenal, adding a slider and “splutter” to his pitch mix in an attempt to compete for the fifth starter gig in spring training this year. Should Smyly lose that competition, he should seamlessly slot back into the bullpen, where he pitched to a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings in September. Following an ugly start against the Detroit Tigers on August 22, he was moved to the ’pen for the rest of the season. His starting prospects aren’t completely dead. He posted a 3.27 ERA through his first 13 starts last season. Then everything started to unravel in mid-June. Over his final 10 starts, Smyly was tagged for an unsightly 7.83 ERA. Now, something peculiar about Smyly in 2023 was that he had reverse splits that were rather pronounced. He held righties to a .241/.312/.446 slash line (better than the league average .253/.328/.428 when the hitter had the platoon advantage), but opposing lefties hit him at a clip nearly equivalent to Mike Trout’s career OPS: .338/.405/.576. Smyly’s new pitches should help alleviate some of that lefty-on-lefty crime, but if he remains a reliever, the Cubs can play a little match-up protection game as Smyly hones his repertoire. Little’s splits exist in a very small sample at the major-league level, but they track with his career minor league performance: in 11 batters faced, Little held lefties to a .111/.182/.222 batting line with four strikeouts. Against 19 opposing righties, Little surrendered a .267/.421/.333 line with eight strikeouts. As a fastball-slider only pitcher, Little will always have a more difficult time beating righties (neither of his pitches moves away from them), but he has shown unusual maturity for challenging them on the inside third of the plate that bodes well for his future success. Cubs fans should feel confident that Counsell will get the best out of his relievers this year after making such a habit of it with the Brewers. If Smyly handle his platoon advantage, and Little learns to beat righties away, then both pitchers (and the Cubs bullpen) will be better for it. Just simply having both players available, though, is a nice change of pace after years of lacking a quality southpaw reliever. View full article

After some offseason shuffling in the rotation, the Chicago Cubs are set to have a fierce and lengthy spring training battle for the fifth starter job. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports As things currently stand, there are four Cubs who are locked into their places in the rotation following their 2023 seasons: Justin Steele (2023 stats - 30 GS, 173.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 176 SO, 3.8 WAR) Kyle Hendricks (2023 stats - 24 GS, 137.0 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 93 SO, 1.5 WAR) Jameson Taillon (2023 stats - 29 GS, 154.1 IP, 4.84 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 140 SO, -0.1 WAR) Shota Imanaga (2023 stats, in Japan - 24 GS, 159 IP, 2.66 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 188 SO) Behind them are a bevy of options, each of whom bring different pedigrees and repertoires to the table. Though each pitcher will likely have to take a start or two in 2024 (a full, 162 game season is often replete with injuries and fatigue), there will be one pitcher who earns the full-time starting gig out of spring training. The Favorite Javier Assad: 2023 stats - 32 G (10 GS), 109.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 94 SO, 2.3 WAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS - 17 GS, 114.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 91 SO, 0.9 WAR PECOTA - 15 GS, 95 IP, 4.83 ERA, 5.02 DRA, 73 SO, 0.4 WARP It’s time to acknowledge the brilliant season Javier Assad had. North Side Baseball’s Cubs Rookie of the Year in 2023, Assad pitched brilliantly while filling in for both Keegan Thompson (injuries, ineffectiveness) and Marcus Stroman (injury) in the bullpen and rotation, respectively. He gets by on a deep arsenal, as he threw six different pitches last year at least 65 times each. All of those pitches had different use cases, as he threw the slider almost exclusively to righties (to the tune of a 44.9% whiff rate) and the changeup exclusively to lefties. He also has three distinct fastballs. The four-seamer is primarily used on lefties (72.5% of the ones he threw last year were to them); the sinker is reserved for righties (68.2%) and the cutter has a nearly even split. Those three pitches all average between 89 and 93 miles per hour, with spin rates ranging from 1900 to 2100 revolutions per minute. Assad really improved his batted-ball profile last year, increasing his groundball rate (41.4% in 2022 to 47.3% in 2023), pulled ball percentage (40.5% to 30.9%) and weak contact rate (5.2% to 7.1%), all of which helped offset a spike in barrels surrendered (5.2% to 9.0%). If he can keep his pitch mix diverse and play to the strengths of the Cubs’ defense (up the middle, in the infield), Assad should have the fast track to being the fifth starter out of camp. The Sleeper Jordan Wicks: 2023 stats - 7 G (7 GS), 34.2 IP, 4.41 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 24 SO, 0.3 WAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS - 25 GS, 110.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 94 SO, 1.3 WAR PECOTA - 19 GS, 81 IP, 4.85 ERA, 5.04 DRA, 67 SO, 0.4 WARP Wicks is the prospect of the group, still maintaining his rookie eligibility heading into 2024. The relatively soft-tossing lefty has a devastating changeup-curveball combination that enabled him to fill in admirably down the stretch (during a playoff push) last season, and his six-pitch repertoire produced three pitches with an expected batting average below .225: the changeup (.212 xBA), the sinker (.224) and the curveball (.106). In his September cup of coffee, Wicks’s average exit velocity (88.1 mph), walk rate (7.5%), barrel percentage (6.3%), hard-hit percentage (33%), and groundball rate (50%) all would have been well-above average had he faced enough batters to qualify. His other stats are limited due to the sample being just over 30 innings, but rest assured that Wicks did everything his profile suggested he could do, while he steadily rose through the minors since being picked 21st overall in the 2021 Draft. If it’s not going to be Assad (perhaps so manager Craig Counsell can deploy him out of the bullpen), Wicks should be the heavy favorite for the final spot in the rotation. He doesn’t have the same pronounced lefty-righty splits of the other options below, and his durability (and ability to throw 100+ pitches in an outing) gives him a greater ceiling than Assad as a starter. If Wicks can mold his slider into an out-pitch against opposing left-handed batters (who hit .333 off of it in 2023), he’ll be in business. The Others Hayden Wesneski: 2023 stats - 34 G (11 GS), 89.1 IP, 4.63 ERA, 5.48 FIP, 83 SO, 0.3 WAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS - 17 GS, 101.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 94 SO, 1.1 WAR PECOTA - 8 GS, 66 IP, 4.29 ERA, 4.52 DRA, 58 SO, 0.6 WARP Right off the bat, ZiPS is the high man on Wesneski’s starting prospects this year, as no other projection service has him exceeding 70 innings pitched nor ten games starting. As such, ZiPS is also the most generous in terms of his projected strikeouts and WAR, whereas PECOTA falls more in line with the consensus prediction for Wesneski in 2024. It may be helpful to view ZiPS’ projection as Wesneski’s ceiling this season, and PECOTA’s as a median outcome. The book on Wesneski is well-known by now: he completely owns opposing righties, but he gets owned by lefties. In 134 at-bats against opposite-handed batters in 2023, he gave up a .313/.374/.649 slash line. That’s a 1.023 OPS. In other words, lefties facing Wesneski had a higher OPS than Ronald Acuña Jr., the reigning National League MVP, did last season (1.012). In contrast, righties only slashed .202/.269/.348 against “Wesnasty,” in 173 at-bats, meaning the average righty hit him about as well as Luis Torrens (who had a .618 OPS for the Cubs in 2023). The pitch mix for Wesneski is also familiar, as he primarily throws a fastball, a sinker and his sweeper. That sweeper is performing fine against lefties: he threw 158 last year to lefties, yielding a .200 batting average against and .400 slugging percentage against. However, his fastball is a problem: in 220 fastballs thrown to lefties in 2023, Wesneski gave up a .387 batting average and a .790 slugging average. In contrast, those pitches have performed admirably against opposing righties (the sweeper generated a .086 batting average in 298 pitches, and the fastball accrued a .237 average across 166 pitches). Unless the former Yankees prospect can figure out how to get the hard stuff by lefties, he’s always going to be a liability in the rotation. If he shows up to spring training with an improved changeup or cutter, then perhaps he can live up to his ZiPS projection. At this point in time, though, it feels like Wesneski is destined for match-up duty out of the pen. Drew Smyly: 2023 stats - 41 G (23 GS), 142.1 IP, 5.00 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 141 SO, 0.0 WAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS - 21 GS, 121 IP, 4.54 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 116 SO, 1.3 WAR PECOTA - 0 GS, 47 IP, 4.47 ERA, 4.47 DRA, 43 SO, 0.3 WARP Smyly has always been more of a fly ball pitcher, though his splits were as pronounced as ever last season: 34.8% ground ball percentage, 43.9% fly ball percentage. That skill set isn’t an issue when the pitcher is keeping the ball in the park, as Smyly did at the end of 2022, when he had a sub-10% home run per fly ball ratio in the second half, but it is when the pitcher is giving up 1.6 home runs per nine innings. Opponents' average exit velocity and number of batted balls exceeding 95+ miles per hour both jumped up for Smyly from 2022 to 2023. At this point in his career, Smyly is a three-pitch pitcher, primarily using a fastball (38.7% usage last season) and curveball (49.4%), while mixing in a cutter (12.0%). While starting, Smyly tends to use the cutter a lot more (over 20% usage in 2022). Given his limited repertoire, middling velocity (average 92.0 mph fastball last year), and ability to hold opposing lefties down, Smyly is best suited for the bullpen to start the year. Of course, if his attempted offseason repertoire adjustments take hold, the equation changes. The Big Question For the first time in a long time, the Cubs have significant depth in the rotation. An injury to Steele or Imanaga will hurt, of course, but it doesn’t automatically sink the season. Assad is likely to win the job after his impressive second half performance in 2023, but any of the above options would be fine as a fill-in choice, too. As pitching coach Tommy Hottovy explains: ““The more options we have, and the more flexibility that we have going into the season, [it's] always going to be the best way to start the season off. And then things always end up working themselves out.” However, the big question lies beyond what's currently on the roster. Pitching prospects Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian are both set to begin the 2024 season in Triple-A Iowa, and chances are they’ll be stretched out as starters while the Cubs try to put off their (potential) respective transitions to the bullpen. Kilian has struggled mightily in his few bites at the big-league apple, compiling a 12.42 ERA in six appearances (four starts). He’s got premium velocity and sharp bite on his breaking pitches, but until and unless he learns better pitch sequencing and finally reigns in his control, Killian will remain destined to be a reliever--if he be a big-league hurler at all. Likewise, Brown struggled at Triple-A last year, posting a 5.70 ERA in 73 innings pitched. Armed with a mid-to-high-90s fastball and hammer curveball, he, too, could make for an effective reliever (or trade bait). The big fish in the minors is top pitching prospect Cade Horton, who, after stunning fans and pundits alike by being picked seventh overall in the 2022 Draft, has become a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. As per North Side Baseball’s scouting report: “It was clear that with a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90s and flashes 98 mph, Horton's velocity wasn't an issue. We also knew about the slider: it's good. It was nice to see that Horton continued working on the changeup. While not a pitch he used often, it was a pitch he began to throw more and more as the season went along, specifically against left-handed hitters. Overall, the goateed pitcher struck out 117 hitters, walked just 27, and had a 2.65 ERA throughout 88 innings and 21 starts. It should be no shock that he was eventually named the 2023 Cubs MiLB Pitcher of the Year.” Lastly, the Cubs are still being mentioned as suitors for the two remaining aces on the free agent market, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. As two of the Four Borasmen (Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger being the others), it’s no surprise they’re lingering on the market even as pitchers and catchers report across the game, but they will need to sign soon to get a full preseason in with their new teams. The Cubs will likely focus on the positional duo in that quartet, but don’t be shocked if the North Siders make a play for one of the left-handed starters if the long-term deals they desire aren’t out there. How are you feeling about the Cubs' rotation depth? Which other starting pitchers excite you, in 2024 and beyond? View full article

In a weak NL Central, with a roster flush with talent and more on the way from the minors, the Cubs have serious expectations heading into the 2024 season. The last time the Cubs won the division was in 2020, or the shortened, 60-game pandemic season. Before then, it was in 2017, the year they were outclassed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. For all the talk about how great the last Cubs’ competitive window under Theo Epstein was, they only secured three NL Central titles and won six playoff series (including Wild Card games). However, at least one of those series wins ended the longest drought in professional sports history. Now, on the brink of Spring Training in 2024, the Chicago Cubs are back in a competitive window. The “not a rebuild” that began in earnest during the 2021 Trade Deadline (though one could argue that it was the Yu Darvish trade in December of 2020 that got the wheels rolling) finally reached its end when the Cubs traded for Jeimer Candelario last season, bucking industry predictions and buying as the calendar flipped to August. The team has acquired significant players to beef up the roster - Shota Imanaga, Michael Busch, and Hector Neris - and rumors still have them pegged as a likely landing spot for at least one of the “Boras Four.” The state of the division also resides in the Cubs’ favor. The St. Louis Cardinals, who finished last in the division in 2023, are the projected favorite, with a lineup led by 36-year-old Paul Goldschmidt and 32-year-old Nolan Arenado (as well as a rotation helmed by Sonny Gray, 34). The Milwaukee Brewers added some exciting pieces, including Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez. Still, they’re also down their two longtime aces, Brandon Woodruff (non-tendered due to injury) and Corbin Burnes (traded to Baltimore), and their manager (Craig Counsell, who came to Chicago). The Cincinnati Reds are loaded with young infielders, but their outfield and bullpen leave much to be desired. The Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t awful, but they don’t have many exciting pieces, and calling their rotation average is probably generous. The Cubs have their flaws, too: first base and third base are currently unsettled (even if Busch steps up and fills one of the corners), the rotation could use one more sure thing, the middle-relief facet of the bullpen is in flux, and the lineup currently has a Cody Bellinger-sized hole. A big-ticket free agent signing or top prospect promotion could and should assuage some of those concerns, but they wouldn’t render the Cubs perfect. Even with a few moves that would make them NL Central favorites, the Cubs would still be looking up at the Atlanta Braves and Dodgers in the pantheon of the National League. However, just because they’ll likely be stopped short of the World Series doesn’t mean the North Siders don’t have expectations this year. By all accounts, they should make whatever transactions necessary to enter the regular season as heavy favorites in the central, and they should aggressively promote prospects and buy on the trade market to reinforce an incomplete roster. The Cubs' next competitive window is now, even if Jed Hoyer and the rest of the front office are trying to put it off. Winning in sports is often based on circumstance as much as it is internal and deliberate maneuvering, and the Cubs are being presented with fortuitous division circumstances at this very moment. Anything other than a postseason appearance this year would be an abject failure. This isn’t another “retooling” season where winning is a byproduct of luck; winning every game should be the goal. The Cubs have benefited from playing with house money in the last few years. In 2024, they’ll be expected to win. View full article