In Hindsight, the Chicago Cubs Made the Right Move at 2023 Trade Deadline

Eight years ago Monday, the Chicago Cubs made a similar move to this one, re-signing beloved center fielder Dexter Fowler for the 2016 season and reintroducing him to the team--to much fanfare--at camp in Mesa. 

Though the Cody Bellinger extension may not lead to the same results that Fowler’s did - 2016 was a pretty special season, in case you forgot - it’s still a vitally important move that should make the Cubs the presumptive NL Central favorites heading into the 2024 season. The roster implications are enormous, as the Cubs can now give Pete Crow-Armstrong more time to develop in the minors while taking pressure off Michael Busch and Christopher Morel to be lineup-carrying bats as they attempt to find permanent defensive homes. The team had to bid adieu to promising left-handed reliever Bailey Horn to clear a 40-man roster spot for Bellinger, and they'll assume a $30 million hit to their CBT, but whatever downsides are present are mitigated by the team-friendly aspects of his three-year, $80-million contract, including player options after the first and second seasons. 

The contract is, of course, a huge win by Jed Hoyer and the front office in their staredown with agent Scott Boras. The Cubs got to bring last year’s team MVP back on their own terms, all while not handing out a long-term contract that would’ve hindered their financial and personnel flexibility. That isn’t the only reason they won with this deal, though. The brain trust also retained a clubhouse and fan favorite who should help galvanize a club with serious expectations in 2024. 

Beyond even that, though, the front office also received massive vindication for their decision to go for it at the trade deadline last summer. Once Bellinger hurt his knee in Houston in May, rumors swirled for months that the Cubs would, for the third year in a row, sell at the deadline. Instead, Hoyer and company made the bold call to swing for the fences, bringing in rental bat Jeimer Candelario (for prospects Kevin Made and DJ Herz) and reliever José Cuas (for outfielder Nelson Velázquez) ahead of the stretch run of the regular season. 

By all accounts, those moves failed to accomplish their ultimate goal, as the Cubs collapsed in September and missed out on the final Wild Card spot by one game in the standings. It’s easy to say, with hindsight in hand, that the Cubs should have sold, unloading assets like Bellinger for a few extra prospects. They missed the playoffs anyway, and by choosing to sell, they’d have a higher draft pick and more prospects in hand right now. From a pure roster construction standpoint, selling was the right path to take. 

However, ignoring the importance of just bringing competitive baseball back to Chicago, that choice to retain Bellinger finally received its ultimate payoff over the weekend. Make no mistake about it: Had the Cubs traded Bellinger away, there is very little chance he would agree to this contract with the team. There is precedent for trading away rentals only to re-sign them - the Yankees did it with the Cubs back in 2016, when they traded Aroldis Chapman to Chicago before re-signing him during the offseason, and the Cubs had done it right before that, with Jason Hammel - but those occasions are rare and often require special circumstances. The Yankees had to hand Chapman the largest-ever (at the time) reliever contract to lure him back to New York.

If Bellinger had made the playoffs with an acquiring team, or if he had merely loved their city or clubhouse or fans, odds are he would’ve stuck around with them rather than wait out an entire offseason for the Cubs to capitulate on his contract demands. He'd also have been more expensive and less willing to sign a short-term deal. Because of the hypothetical trade, he'd have been ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in November, and if he'd signed the kind of deal he's now signed, he'd have had to consider having draft compensation attached to him if he opted out in the future.

Bellinger might’ve fetched a relative haul at the deadline last summer--certainly more than Candelario cost the Cubs in terms of prospect talent. Yet, somehow, the Cubs improved for 2024 by choosing to buy short-term assets in 2023. Bellinger is back, for this upcoming season at least, and the North Siders are all the better for it. Whatever happens this season, Jed Hoyer has bought himself some much-needed goodwill and patience with Cubs fans.