How Well Could the Cubs Handle MLB's Proposed Pitching Mandate?

Over the last few seasons, the MLB Competition Committee have instituted a number of rule changes designed to get the game feeling more akin to the sport of old again. Bigger bases were placed on the diamond to incentivize more stolen-base attempts. All pitchers are now forced to face a minimum of three hitters, in order to limit the amount of matchup-hunting managers can do. Pitching mound visits and batter timeouts were given finite limits, to minimize downtime during innings. Perhaps most infamously, the pitch clock was adopted last year, in an effort to shrink overall game times and keep the action flowing smoothly. 

None of the changes have been met with universal applause - be it from fans, players, or pundits - but the general consensus is that the league has made important strides in keeping fans engaged throughout the entire nine-inning drama of a game. Now, the league is discussing another rule that would restore some of the old game’s charm. With the intention of seeing starting pitchers pitch deeper into games, there have been rumors that MLB may limit teams to 12 pitchers on the major-league roster (down from the current 13). 

As you might expect, that news has been met with plenty of praise and pushback from both sides of the aisle. On one hand, you have pitchers like Max Scherzer--a luminary of the modern era--who are staunch supporters of seeing pitchers push themselves and carry their teams: “"I became a better pitcher once I went through three times in the lineup and was failing on that third time through the lineup," the 39-year-old Scherzer said. "That's every young pitcher's struggle, is learning how to pitch three times through a lineup. ... We’re so scared now to let guys fail."

Current Cub Jameson Taillon also took the affirmative on the potential rule change, though he argued about the benefits of it from the fans’ perspective: "I grew up a fan of the game, and me and my dad used to pick Astros games based on when Roy Oswalt was pitching. We would look at pitching matchups, that's what we would do. Nowadays, I feel like that allure is gone a little bit."

Both pitchers’ analysis of the situation is valid, and if there’s anyone out there currently suited to say whether the league should implement a roster restriction policy of this nature, it’s current MLB players. That being said, both Scherzer and Taillon admitted the 12-pitcher limit is a bad idea, and there’s a reason teams and front offices are defending the current roster makeup so vehemently. Having more pitchers available gives more opportunities for rest for relievers, and it also allows teams to present opposing offense with a greater variety of pitching angles, repertoires and velocities.

This rule change would all but negate the possibility of the six-man rotation that’s been experimented with by a few teams in recent years. Seven relievers is the bare minimum teams feel they can get by with, especially when considering the recent rise in popularity in the Keegan Thompson/Javier Assad type of long reliever who pitches three to four innings once or twice every turn through the rotation. On top of needing a closer, a few late-inning setup men, and a few arms for matchup duty, this new rule would decimate the dwindling class of middle relievers that still exist.

As I examined last week, the Cubs have four starters in place for the 2024 season: Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks, and Taillon. They’re having a fierce competition for the fifth starter spot, which includes Assad and Jordan Wicks (the presumptive favorites), as well as Drew Smyly and Hayden Wesneski, who broke camp last year with places in the rotation. This hypothetical, artificial limit of the number of rosterable relievers wouldn’t crush the Cubs as much as other teams with fewer starting pitcher options, but it would have a great effect on the composition of the roster. 

Having only 12 pitchers available means that optionable pitchers become that much more valuable. In a sense, under these rumored restrictions, José Cuas would become more valuable than Yency Almonte, since the former can be shuttled up and down between the minor and major leagues this season. (Almonte cannot.) Optionable relievers would allow teams to bring in fresher arms from the minors while the pitchers who just pitched take a few rest days in the minor leagues (and thus, while not on the 26-man roster). The rule would also likely force a few teams’ hands with using the “phantom IL” when in desperate need of a fresh arm, though former New York Mets general manager Billy Eppler was just slammed with major repercussions for abusing the system during his time in New York.  

Wanting starting pitchers to pitch deeper into games is a noble cause worth pursuing for the Competition Committee. Even if it means ERAs would balloon as starters went through lineups for the third and fourth time, that would only help with another recent mission statement of increasing offense. There would also be less changeover during innings, as managers would have one fewer bullet to use to put out fires during innings. 

Alas, the game is evolving in the other direction. Analytics, sabermetrics and Statcast data are tremendous tools that have given never-before-seen insight to decision-makers like managers and front office personnel. With knowledge comes liability. Teams won’t simply ignore the data and encourage pitchers to pitch a third time through the order when they have a fireballing, opposite-handed reliever waiting in the bullpen. It’s true that individual teams wouldn’t be able to veto this rule being instituted, but it’s more than likely most would be very upset by it (not to mention a potential grievance filed on behalf on the Major League Baseball Players Association, who would all but certainly argue that further roster constrictions on pitchers is unfair and unjust treatment of primary relievers). 

The game of baseball is meant to be entertainment, and at the end of the day, baseball is more entertaining when starting pitchers adopt a workhorse mentality. There’s a reason Madison Bumgarner is an October legend and Wade Davis is not, despite the fact that both pitchers were the most valuable arms (by fWAR) on their respective rosters during their teams’ runs to the World Series title. How baseball attempts to incentivize teams to get more out of their starters remains to be seen, but it’s safe to say that any solution will be met with resistance, on multiple fronts.