2024 Chicago Cubs Camp Storylines: Keegan Thompson’s Role

A third-round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, Keegan Thompson initially moved quickly through the Cubs’ farm system, reaching Double-A Tennessee as a starter before the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor-league season. The Cubs still added the young righthander to the 40-man roster before the 2021 season, and he would eventually debut as a reliever against the Cincinnati Reds on May 2 of that year.

It was in 2022 that Thompson really took off. He started in 17 games and pitched in 12 others, accumulating 115 innings in 29 total appearances. His 3.76 ERA was loosely corroborated by a 4.40 FIP, and he was 11% better than league average by ERA+. By the end of the season, he and Brandon Hughes were then-manager David Ross’s preferred options out of the pen. Both of those pitchers entered 2023 with high expectations, with roster spots and roles guaranteed at the commencement of spring training.

Then, things went awry. Hughes showed up to camp with lower body issues and fatigue, and his season never got off the ground. He’s now in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization. Thompson had a similarly slow start to camp, though he made the Opening Day roster in 2023. Unfortunately, he was largely ineffective, pitching to a 2-2 record with a 4.22 ERA, 14 walks and 16 strikeouts in 15 relief appearances. The lack of command was startling after the gains he made in 2022 (3.4 BB/9). As such, the Cubs wanted to give him a chance to work out his kinks after a delayed start to the campaign.

He was optioned to Triple-A Iowa on May 19, with many speculating about a hidden injury or a lingering dead arm. In 16 outings with the Iowa Cubs, he went 2-0 with a 9.36 ERA, with his command still presenting an issue. Thompson went on to finish the season with the major-league Cubs, giving up five runs in seven innings in four (mostly) mop-up appearances. It was a precipitous fall from grace, and his roster spot is a giant question mark heading into the upcoming season.

For one thing, the Cubs bullpen is mostly settled already: Adbert Alzolay, Héctor Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. are well established as the team’s late-inning arms. Beyond them, Yency Almonte is a recent trade addition with a few good seasons under his belt and no minor league options remaining. Luke Little and Daniel Palencia are young, power arms who finished 2023 with the major-league team after meteoric rises through the farm system. Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad are all long relief options (assuming Jordan Wicks claims the fifth starter role in the rotation) who’ve had success throwing multiple innings in the past.

That’s 10 guys for eight spots, and it doesn't include Thompson, José Cuas, and non-roster invitees Carl Edwards Jr., Richard Lovelady, Thomas Pannone, and Edwin Escobar, among others. The team also has a wave of prospects with lively arms - Ben Brown, Cam Sanders, and Riley Thompson chief among them - that could make a case for a relief role sooner, rather than later. The roster crowding is becoming untenable, and Thompson’s 40-man spot was just proven exceptionally valuable when the Cubs traded Bailey Horn for Matt Thompson to clear space for the addition of Cody Bellinger. 

Thompson has always had the makings of a big-league reliever, as he’s comfortable throwing all three of his main pitches (four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball) to both left and right-handed hitters. In 2022, Thompson threw 891 fastballs (449 to righties, 442 to lefties); 404 cutters (227 to righties, 177 to lefties); and 329 curveballs (161 to righties, 168 to lefties). As a result, he’s generally been split-neutral throughout his career, though lefties hit him well last year after he mostly abandoned his changeup. The key to Thompson’s success is throwing the fastball high and the cutter inside, which allows him to tunnel his curveball down in the zone.

At this point, all bets on Thompson are off. No one should be counting on him being a major contributor this season, and he’s just as likely to find himself off the 40-man roster entirely as he is to be in Chicago to open the 2024 season.

That being said, it was just two years ago that he was the Cubs’ most reliable arm in the bullpen. If he’s over the injuries and fatigue that cost him a portion of last year, there’s a possibility he returns to form as a multi-inning arm. And make no mistake about it, that version of Thompson is a valuable thing, even for a Cubs team overloaded with long-relief options. 

Expect Thompson to begin the year in Iowa’s bullpen as a depth arm, waiting for a need to arise on the major-league roster and tries to prove he's worthy of the opportunity to fill it. However, if he gets his chance to reestablish himself in manager Craig Counsell’s circle of trust, don’t be shocked if Thompson is pitching in key games down the stretch for a team with high expectations for this upcoming season.