Where the Cubs Bullpen Stands After Latest High-Leverage Addition

It's never quite this simple, but the nature of bullpen analysis always seems to be that we treat them as hierarchical structures. So, let's sort through this one that way.

The Established, Late-Inning Crew
Adbert Alzolay
The Cubs’ brand new, homegrown closer had a dominant finish to the 2023 season, posting a 2.67 ERA in 64 innings pitched. His ERA+ was an absurd 168 (meaning he was 68% better than a league-average pitcher) while finishing out 38 games, 22 of which went for saves. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and a lethal slider, Alzolay has firmly entrenched himself as the Cubs’ closer of the present and future. If the team finds itself in contention at the deadline, they could make a move for another ninth-inning arm, but for now, expect to see Alzolay finishing games as the Cubs try to position themselves for that very situation. 

Hector Neris 
The newest addition to the Cubs’ bullpen, Neris signed a one-year, $9-million contract over the weekend to be one of the setup men to Alzolay. He posted a ridiculous 1.71 ERA in 71 appearances, though that comes with the caveat of a 3.83 FIP and a well-below average 31.7% groundball rate. However, when you can throw a splitter like this, odds are you’ll have some sort of consistent success.

Neris provides plenty of insurance should Alzolay get injured or take a step back this year (he has 89 saves in his career), but his true value will come as a versatile bridge in the late innings. Opponents posted just a .569 OPS against the former Astros reliever last year, and his OPS against was below .650 in each of the seventh through ninth innings. 

Julian Merryweather
Merryweather broke out with the Cubs in 2023, supplying Chicago with career bests across the board. His 3.38 ERA in 72 innings was a top-three mark in the bullpen, and he was the hardest thrower of that group (not including Daniel Palencia, who only threw 28 ⅓ innings in the majors last year). Merryweather’s strikeout rate ballooned up to 32.3% last year, while his walk rate stayed consistent at 11.9%. As long as he can maintain that level of control, the former Blue Jays castoff should continue to be a dominant force in the seventh and eighth innings at Wrigley. 

The Match-Up Arms
Mark Leiter Jr./strong>
Leiter Jr. is the nominal “lefty” in the bullpen, as he held opposing left-handers to a .185/.265/.302 slash line in 182 plate appearances. His splitter is his greatest weapon, as the pitch produced a .127 expected batting average last year, making it one of the 20 or so best “out-pitches” in baseball. He faltered some down the stretch as fatigue hit and his splitter lost its effectiveness, but until and unless the Cubs add a true lefty (with traditional splits) to the pen, Leiter’s job is secure.

Yency Almonte
The “other” piece in the Michael Busch trade, Almonte is to righties what Leiter Jr. is to lefties. Almonte’s splits aren’t as drastic as the ones Leiter is rocking, but limiting his exposure to opposing right-handed batters is when he’s thrived most in his career. Over the last two seasons, Almonte’s strikeout rate against righties is 27.9%, compared to just 16.5% for lefties. Similarly, he’s walked only 8.6% of right-handers, compared to 12.4% of left-handers. The former Dodger is out of minor league options, so he’ll stick around as long as the Cubs believe in his stuff, but for now he’ll mostly be limited to match-up duty.

The Power Arms
Luke Little
In his 6 2/3-inning cup of coffee last year, Little struck out 12 and walked four. It was par for the course for the dominant 6-foot-8 lefty, who’s got overpowering stuff but lacks elite control. He only gave up five hits, and in his last two seasons in the minors, Little has allowed just one home run. As long as he can keep the walks to a minimum, Little should be a fixture in the bullpen for years to come, and his talent for keeping the ball in the park should make him a top candidate to assume the closer role should Alzolay struggle during his first full season in that spotlight. 

Daniel Palencia
Equipped with a 100-mph fastball and the best raw stuff of any of the Cubs’ relievers, Palencia rose rapidly through the organization after converting from being a starting pitcher. Palencia posted a 4.45 ERA in 28 ⅓ innings last year, though his 4.00 FIP and 89.6 mph average exit velocity better express his talent and ability to manage contact. His .224 expected batting average was also in the 70th percentile, mostly on the back of his slider (.200 xBA). The Cubs will be hoping the 24-year-old fireballer can expand his repertoire and show a greater ability to pitch out of jams, but Palencia enters 2024 as perhaps the highest-upside arm in the bullpen. 

The Swing-Men (and Others)
Drew Smyly & Hayden Wesneski
Both former starters will enter 2024 as candidates for the fifth starter role in the Cubs’ rotation, though Smyly and Wesneski found more success last year after moving into the pen. Both benefited from matchup protection (Smyly works better against lefties and low-contact righties, Wesneski struggles against all opposing left-handed hitters) and simplified pitch mixes, though the Cubs will be hoping to keep both stretched out enough for inevitable injuries and openings in the rotation. Wesneski is obviously the higher-upside arm, making the back-end of some Top-100 prospect lists this time last offseason, and if he ever figures out a pitch mix that works against left-handers, watch out.

José Cuas, Javier Assad, Carl Edwards Jr. Keegan Thompson
Cuas was the Cubs’ return in the Nelson Velázquez trade last summer, and he’ll have a chance to break camp with the big-league roster. More likely, he’ll go to Triple-A Iowa as a depth option, working on his stuff and honing his funky delivery before an as-needed call back to Chicago. 

Assad could return to the bullpen, but after his surprising run in the rotation last year, he should be the favorite to take on the fifth starter role behind Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks. Perhaps Jordan Wicks or one of Smyly or Wesneski takes it from him and pushes Assad back into his long-man role as a reliever, but for now, Assad is penciled in as one of the starters. 

Edwards, Thompson, and others will go to Spring Training as depth arms with minimal chance of being with the Cubs on Opening Day. They’ll all provide valuable depth should things go awry, but the Cubs have done good work giving themselves plenty of options for the bullpen.

Does Neris make you feel good enough about this relief corps? Is there anyone else you want to see the team add before spring training gets going? Since we're down to 16 days before that happens, it's time to answer that question.