How the Cubs Did on Arbitration Deal Day

For context: if the arbitration deadline passes without the player and team reaching a deal, then the two parties exchange official offers and await an arbitration hearing. (Technically, they're allowed to continue negotiating until the hearing begins, but most teams now pursue a "file-and-trial" policy wherein once numbers are exchanged, no compromises are available.) In that hearing, both the player and team make the case for the salary they submitted for a one-year contract for the player, after which a panel of three neutral arbitrators decides in either the team’s favor or the player’s.

The Cubs have had a habit of avoiding those hearings whenever possible. Over the past 30 years, only two Cubs have been brought to arbitration hearings (Ryan Theriot in 2008, Pedro Strop in 2015). It turns out old habits really do die hard, as the Cubs avoided arbitration with each of their six arb-eligible players for the 2024 season. 

Justin Steele - 1 year, $4 million
Year of arbitration: 1 of 4
Steele was the Cubs’ big breakout in 2023, as he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting and made his first career All-Star team. Emerging as the ace of the staff, the Mississippi native became the long-awaited homegrown success story on the pitching side, and he’s all but certain to be the first pitcher to start Opening Day for the Cubs as an original draft pick of the team since Jeff Samardzija in 2014. Steele finished last season with a 3.06 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 173 ⅓ innings, all career-best totals. 

Adbert Alzolay - 1 year, $2.11 million 
Year of arbitration: 1 of 3
If Steele was the big breakout in the rotation last season, Alzolay was the dominant story out of the bullpen. After years of dealing with injuries and shuffling in and out of the rotation on his way to the big leagues, Alzolay finally settled into the closer role in July and (except for his stint on the injured list) never relinquished the gig. He finished 2023 with 22 saves (38 games finished), while putting up a 2.65 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 58 appearances. If the Cubs are to be competitive in 2024, they’ll need a repeat performance from their homegrown closer. 

Mike Tauchman - 1 year, $1.95 million
Year of arbitration: 1 of 3
The 33-year old Tauchman was one of the most fun stories in all of baseball last season, as he quickly gained a foothold in the Cubs’ outfield after fizzling out with the Yankees and Giants. He was originally called up as an injury replacement for Cody Bellinger, after the former Dodger injured his knee in May, but he stuck around to produce a .252/.363/.377 slash line in 108 games. Tauchman proved to be a valuable fourth outfielder in 2023, which should remain valuable to the Cubs even if both Bellinger and top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong are on the Opening Day roster.

Nick Madrigal - 1 year, $1.81 million
Year of arbitration: 2 of 4
Following the DFA of reliever Codi Heuer earlier in the offseason, Madrigal is all that remains from the ill-fated Craig Kimbrel trade, though the soon-to-be 27-year-old finally established some major-league credentials last season. When available, his defense was shockingly brilliant at third base (10 Outs Above Average), and his blue-chip tool of being a contact maven remained intact, as his contact rate (92.2%) was among the best figures in baseball. Where Madrigal fits on the roster after the Michael Busch trade is anyone’s guess, but the diminutive infielder can still provide value on the diamond.

Mark Leiter Jr. - 1 year, $1.5 million
Year of arbitration: 1 of 3
Leiter was a mystery coming into last season, having been DFA’d the prior winter to make room on the 40-man roster. It’s a good thing the Cubs were able to retain him in the organization, as Leiter, 32, delivered a 3.50 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 64 ⅓ innings. His splitter ranked among the best pitches in all of baseball in 2023, which helped him dominate left-handed batters to the tune of a .185 average against and .568 OPS. He did struggle in September after he lost a feel for his best pitch due to fatigue, though the Cubs are hoping he’ll regain his top form after a full offseason to rest. 

Julian Merryweather - 1 year, $1.175 million
Year of arbitration: 1 of 3
Yet another bullpen breakout in 2023, Merryweather was a late-offseason pickup last year, as the Cubs plucked him off waivers from the Blue Jays. The hardest thrower in the bullpen (besides Daniel Palencia, perhaps), Merryweather gave the Cubs a 3.38 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 72 innings. He’ll slot back into the late-game reliever rotation alongside Leiter to form the bridge to Alzolay, giving the Cubs some much-needed stability in their bullpen. 

The Cubs saved a small amount on these deals, relative to these players' projected arbitration salaries from MLB Trade Rumors. The question, now, is whether they'll turn out to be a good value or not, and that has much more to do with their performance than with their payment.

Which of these deals stand out to you? How are you feeling about the Cubs' middle class, in terms of service time, heading into 2024?