Before the Offseason Fireworks Begin, Are the Cubs the Presumptive Favorite in the NL Central?

The Cubs finished 2023 with 83 wins, finishing second in the division and nine games behind the first-place Brewers. They'll be retaining a majority of their roster; however, as is starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, reigning National League Comeback Player of the Year Cody Bellinger is likely to depart in free agency. Rumors have spread like wildfire about some players the Cubs will seriously pursue, including the "Big Three" Japanese free agents: Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shota Imanaga. 

Of course, the Cubs have already made one of their most significant offseason moves, as they stunned the baseball world by signing manager Craig Counsell away from the Brewers. How that move improves the team has been discussed at length, but it's safe to say Counsell coming to Chicago not only makes the Cubs better but also makes the Brewers worse. Add that to the recent Brandon Woodruff non-tender (which was injury-related) and the rumors swirling around a potential Corbin Burnes trade (with the Cubs even mentioned as possible suitors), and you have the makings of Milwaukee taking a step back in 2024. 

Elsewhere in the central, the Reds finished just a game behind the Cubs last season, and they possess some truly exciting talent, led by a glut of infield prospects. Elly De La Cruz is the name that garners the most buzz (and for good reason), but they also have Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, and others. The issue in Cincinnati is the pitching or lack thereof. Reds pitchers had an unsightly 4.83 ERA last year, which ranked 25th in the league, and their lack of movement at the deadline (only trading for stop-gap reliever Sam Moll) despite their midseason surge was telling. It's unlikely they'll be that complacent this offseason, but the Reds have never been big spenders, and pitcher salaries are only increasing. 

Speaking of, what the hell is going on in St. Louis? They just signed back-of-the-rotation arms Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to $10+ million deals, following a season in which their pitchers had a 4.81 ERA (only one spot ahead of the Reds). The only pitcher in the rotation with any recent track record of success is Miles Mikolas, and all of us around here know the problems Willson Contreras has on the defensive and game-planning side of the plate. 

St. Louis has an impressive offense led by Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, but that only got them to a last-place finish in the central last year. Barring a massive overhaul to the major league pitching staff - with a budget that also lands No. 2 on the list flux because of the Diamond Sports RSN bankruptcy - it’s hard to peg the Cardinals as anything more than fringe Wild Card contenders heading into next season. 

Lastly, the Pirates finished fourth in the NL Central in 2023, though they are the team least likely to make any substantial outside additions this winter. They have a strong farm system and a load of young talent at the big league level (not to mention the return of wunderkind Oneil Cruz from injury), yet the whole of the team doesn’t pose much of a threat. As is a running theme in this division, the Pirates also yearn for more consistent pitching, as only starter Mitch Keller and closer (and trade candidate) David Bednar have proven their major league bonafides. 

Admittedly, this early-offseason preview paints a less-than-rosy picture of the NL Central gamut heading into 2024. No team stands out as an apparent divisional favorite, let alone a World Series contender. However, the Cubs can’t control what division they play in, and as things currently stand, it’s hard to argue they aren’t the most complete team of the bunch. 

Though winning the division is the first step toward something bigger, it isn’t enough to be the least dull knife in the kitchen. Hopefully, the Cubs will press their foot down on the gas pedal this offseason and enter next year as the resounding favorites to own the National League Central.