Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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I don't think they trade for a Vlad or Tucker. A Crochet type is much more likely. They didn't trade for Alonso with 1 year left either, seems like a bit of a waste of prospects for just a year at high arb salary. Doubtful Vlad extends, he's one year out and probably wants to test FA. Didn't sign an extension with the Jays.
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Schmidt is ok. Seems maybe slightly above average. Like a Taillon type. They could acquire someone like that in FA without much difficulty, they seem to do it every year. Probably wouldn't take one of our top 5 prospects.
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I said ideally. In terms of payroll of course it matters, unless you're working with a blank cheque, which we never have been.
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Exactly. If the choice is putting in an opt out after 1 year or 2 years or 4 years or not getting Soto then you give him the opt-out. I don't want a 35 year old Soto making top salary anyways. The Cubs ideally don't want any high-salary position player older than 32-33 because why would they? Not to mention when he's older he'll very likely be a DH. In fact if the Cubs or most any team could choose the years they'd probably sign Soto through age 30 or so, maybe 32 max. Worst-case scenario is you get all that salary back to spend on another star player in the prime.
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I don't see why Soto would want an opt-out. It doesn't hurt but he's not going to e.g. take less money overall so he can have an opt-out. He'll never be in a better situation going into FA and opting out in 5 years to possibly get a bit more money is more like splitting hairs.
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To be fair Cody is making a higher AAV in exchange for fewer guaranteed years so we didn't have to sign him for 6 years or whatever with the risk that 2023 was a total fluke and he went back to being a 1 WAR player.
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With Bellinger I think Jed said the Cubs knew that if Cody played well he could opt out and said he played well this year so he could opt out but they don't know. I think he likely does opt out. Players usually go for the higher guaranteed money over the higher AAV, but not always. We'll see I guess. If Cody can get something like 5/110 he'll opt out, and I think he can get that.
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Counsell may have just not seen eye to eye with these coaches philosophically. He inherited Napoli. Or maybe the coaches themselves wanted a change. We don't know, it doesn't matter.
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Interesting from the presser was Jed mentioning how Wrigley was a tough place to hit this year and suppressed their offensive numbers. But that would also mean our pitchers got a boost. Cubs were 4th in runs scored on the road, 26th at home. Were 2nd in home ERA and 23rd in road ERA.
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Exactly. Jed said they haven't even started looking at the offseason yet because the season just ended, so he couldn't answer questions about their offseason plans because they don't have any yet. He said that's what they'll be doing in Oct. This was an end-of-season presser meant to talk about the season in summary. The Cubs have lots of assets, good contracts, literally no dead money on the books, a healthy farm system etc. What else is he going to say besides pointing that out?
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Well the good thing is they have about 35m coming off the books that was more or less dead money this year. 35m can buy around 5 WAR or whatnot in upgrades. If they spend it wisely they could be over 85 wins based on that alone. We know they'll get more wins out of 3B next season, and almost certainly catcher as well (can't do any worse). Literally anyone can pitch better than Hendricks did. I anticipate better seasons from PCA and Bellinger and hopefully Brown/Wicks also. I want them to stop spending several million AAV on replacement players. They do it every winter. They'll need another SP so they should either spend real money or assets on a quality SP or find another project off the scrapheap. Same with catcher and the pen.
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Well the point is the Cubs have lots of assets and a ton of options. As long as they keep one of Nico/Dansby to play SS the Cubs could literally trade any of our vets and have a suitable prospect replacement ready within the next year if not today. I doubt any vet gets traded this winter but within the next year we know either some vets or prospects will likely get traded. For me Canario, Triantos, and Ballesteros (if he can't catch) seem like the odd men out but also may not bring a ton in trade, they could be saved for a deadline trade or as Iowa depth. I'd be very hesitant to trade Alcantara, he has the power/speed combo, he could be a beast. A poor man's Elly De La Cruz or Oneil Cruz. I like Caissie too. Seems like he'll whiff a ton but he has the sweet swing & approach to make adjustments and work all fields, unlike a Morel or Canario.
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Hope so. There isn't much out there in FA at catcher it looks like. Will be a really tough position for Jed to figure out. I'd be happy with a league average catching combo that can handle pitchers.
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I actually don't think the way the WAR breaks down matters much. At the end of the day the Cubs spending is inefficient. We're not getting enough WAR per million spent. The team needs more surplus or needs to spend more if they're ever going to be a 90+ win team. Players like Baez, Bryant, Russell, Hendricks, Schwarber, Contreras, Rizzo etc gave us a ton of surplus and we're nowhere close to that yet. We may have almost twice the payroll as the Brewers but if we spend 3-4x on players of the same WAR it's moot. If players like Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, Horton, Brown etc can perform well we can afford to trade more expensive guys like Happ, Bellinger, Nico or Swanson, etc and sign upgrades elsewhere while reloading our farm to reload the surplus years down the road. Rinse and repeat. The other option would be to trade some of those prospects mentioned for mlb-ready prospects at positions we need, like we did with Busch. I don't think trading 3 top prospects for 1 very good mlb player with 3 years left until FA and entering arbitration years is going to be enough. Maybe to get us into the playoffs but we should aim higher
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We probably need to acquire a quality bat, a quality SP, and figure out how to build a pen not filled with JAGs who suck the first 3 months. Anyone with a set of eyes can tell the talent difference between someone like Hodge and guys like Michael Fulmer, Jose Cuas etc
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An issue with our team is having so many great glove, mediocre bat players. Nico, Swanson, PCA, then you have Amaya who isn't good at hitting or defense. That's 4 guys in the lineup that don't hit much (PCA is a work in progress - jury is still out). Their overall value via WAR is the same, the gloves on these 3 guys help our pitchers overachieve which is great. But I also think some of our pitchers aren't quite as good as we think they are because of it since it lowers their ERAs. xFIP/FIP can come in handy here to help evaluate.
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This Cubs season was a D-minus time for me
Stratos replied to Javy Is Still A Cub's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If you don't make the playoffs I call it an automatic F grade. I thought they were a slightly better team than last year and yet didn't improve. Busch over Mancini, Imanaga in for Stroman (was hurt last year). The offense totally tanked from May to around the ASB and blew the season, along with Jed's crappy bullpen in the first half. They should have been right there in the wildcard hunt. Adding Busch, Paredes, and Imanaga is solid though for years to come. Just MUCH too long of a rebuild. We got quality prospects for Rizzo, Baez, and Darvish but they were so young, and Ricketts should have overspent on the payroll to make up for it until they're ready, at least the last 2 seasons. Last 2 seasons we're about 5 wins short of being a legit playoff team. We still burn too much money on fringe FA's. They sign Imanaga and then bring back Hendricks for 16.5m. Sign Swanson and then sign Mancini/Smyly/Barnhart on 2-year deals. Gotta be smarter and live the "value and efficiency" mantra on the smaller signings too. -
Reds (Greene) vs Cubs (Kilian): 9/29/24, 2:20pm
Stratos replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Seiya has the 7th highest wRC+ in the NL right now, a tick ahead of Freddie Freeman. Happ is 16th. Imanaga was the 10th best pitcher in the NL in terms of WAR (which uses xFIP over ERA). If he pitched today he would have been even higher. He has the 3rd best ERA in the NL. Taillon was 15th. -
This Cubs season was a D-minus time for me
Stratos replied to Javy Is Still A Cub's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Its hard to enjoy baseball sometimes when they keep smearing poo all over it. When you say "don't really matter", that's your own opinion. I think they do matter, at least to me. I'm a romantic at heart, which is why it's hard for me. The ownership group for the Field of Dreams movie site in Iowa is building some hotels and restaurants on the site, I can't wait. But you're right in that if I want to be happier I need to accept the fact that baseball is increasingly poo-stained in order to appeal to the smartphone generations or whatever and create more corporate profit. Or maybe i'll go watch more local little league and men's league games or something. -
"As long as we're in the race until the last week we'll fill the seats and I'll be satisfied. This year was a success!" Ricketts probably
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They took the standings link off the main Cubs.com page. Go eff yourself Cubs.com
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Reds (Greene) vs Cubs (Kilian): 9/29/24, 2:20pm
Stratos replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
He looked nasty in Spring Training. Too bad he got hurt. He had bite on the curve then if I remember. -
Maybe Isaac is a little banged up, or Craig is playing matchups. Maybe they want to see if Wizzy can do better with more regular playing time? Hard to come in and hit when you're only playing once a week.
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Maybe Craig can bring in the entire Brewers organization.
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This Cubs season was a D-minus time for me
Stratos replied to Javy Is Still A Cub's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Cubs sound guy started playing the track "Sweet Emotions" by Aerosmith over the speakers when Kyle came off the mound for the last time and gave the teammates hugs in the dugout and gave the curtain call. C'mon sound guy, just let the moment breathe and play out.
