Stratos

Yeah I gotta agree. I wonder if he plays next year. I'm sure a team would give him a flier, would depend on how much he likes to pitch, i'm sure a huge paycut is coming. I kinda wonder how much the sticky stuff crackdown has affected him. Could have affected his feel and command. The velo is still there. Just from seeing on TV the sinker just doesn't seem to be there anymore too the last few years, or the movement on the change.

Shaw has played 54 games at 3B this season which is over twice as many as any other position. He's played the overwhelming majority of his games in Iowa at 3B also. You're right about Triantos, he hasn't played there at all this year and barely at all last year, probably just in a punch, they don't seem to like him at 3B from the prospect writeups. But yeah I'm not sure they'd go with Shaw over Paredes, but it says Paredes is hitting .140 since the ASB so if he continues to slump they wouldn't have much to lose I guess. It would be a pretty big desperation move unless there's the injury thing with Paredes that gets worse. Cubs are 29th in the MLB this year in total WAR from the 3B position at -0.7 WAR, yikes. Gotta think they probably give Paredes at least a couple of months to start the season next year before Shaw becomes a replacement option. It would be fantastic if Paredes does well for us and they could afford to trade Nico eventually (or possibly Swanson...less likely) and put Shaw or Triantos at 2B.

My argument is that Bellinger's actual tools (physical athletic abilities) aren't any worse even if some of the statistical results have been worse. Launch angle is not something largely determined by his raw physical tools, it's about mechanics, timing, intent etc. This can change year to year and the stats can go up and down while his physical tools remain the same, which suggests he can possibly improve on this next year, and probably overperformed last year compared to what we should expect in an average year from him. Similarly, baserunning value can go up and and down year to year for various reasons, but his sprint speed is the same as last year (actually ranks better this year) so is there any physical reason for this decline, or it is just some random variation, or changes in another variable outside his control like base-coaching (more or less aggressive sends etc)? I don't see how his defensive abilities have necessarily changed either even if the stats aren't as good as last year. He still has the same sprint speed and the arm strength is similar. Defensive metric outcomes will vary year to year based on numerous factors including natural variation (luck) due to limits in sample sizes so a decline this year isn't necessarily an accurate reflection of a player's abilities declining, especially considering Bellinger only played 80 games in the OF last year and at different positions and will likely have about the same # of starts in the OF this season too. I'm a big believer that teams should largely pay for tools (and skills that take many years to teach) and focus on evaluating those properly rather than getting overly reliant on the results on the field in a single season since those are far more variable. I think the best front offices are able to best separate those and evaluate players most accurately.

I think Bellinger is literally the exact same player he was last year. His abilities haven't changed. His exit velo and hard hit rate and running speed haven't changed. The tools are still all there, he's a really good athlete. He started a quarter of his games this year at DH including when he didn't need to earlier in the year, and started almost a third of his games last year at 1B (a position which has a negative positional adjustment when WAR is calculates) so his WAR is a little deceiving of his true value. There's also value in being able to play multiple positions which isn't calculated into WAR. He hasn't had the launch angle or HR groove like he did last year and I don't think anyone expected him to repeat the year he had last year. He's still a good player. They didn't really overpay because luckily they got him for 3 years max from Boras. On a longer term deal he'd probably make around 24m AAV I think ideally you 'd love to have most players you sign to substantial AAV contracts at FA market prices to only stick around for a year but i think 1 or 2 more seasons of Cody is totally fine.

Yeah Suzuki is 5th and Happ is 12th. Happ is 13th in OF WAR and Suzuki is 17th. Suzuki would be even higher if he didn't DH. There's 90 OF spots in the MLB so that's very good.

Dansby projected to finish with a 3.5 fWAR. Pretty good considering how bad most of his season was at the plate. Seiya's numbers look very similar to last year.

Let's put Amaya and Paredes in a race.

Neely's fastball looks very hittable so far. Guys hitting .375 and .750 SLG on it so far, very high exit velo. Early yet though.

Before the deadline our 5-9 hitters in the lineup all had wRC+ under 100. Yuck. Glad things have improved.

Yeah he'd be fine in a piggy-back or swing guy role. Hopefully we have enough healthy SP to make that happen. He might just have had some control issues since coming back from injury. He did a bit better last year getting deeper in games.

Well he was also out for half the season, that's going to atrophy some of your muscle strength if you can't throw for that long. You could be right though hard to say i guess.

Assad has a 3.11 ERA as a SP and a career 3.05 ERA as a SP, which is better Steele's career SP ERA (in half the IP though). Very likely not sustainable with that LOB% but still.

There's a week and half of games left in the season. There's not much point in promoting him at this point. He can start next season in high-A.

Cubs have a 2.4% chance of clinching a wild card spot. They need to go on a run, and it needed to be this month because next month is tougher and this month was easy. They need to sweep the Marlins.

Don't worry, they'll be back under next year LOL

Nothing says Wrigley like an LED light show.

I am happy and not surprised Neris is gone. Some money freed to grab a guy or 2 for pen this winter or whatever. Pen for 2024 so far: Hodge, Merryweather, Miller, Wesneski, Palencia, Roberts, Almonte, Little Lopez and Smyly are FA this winter.

Please don't put words in my mouth. This isn't the first time you've made this kind of argument.

If they didn't show the K-zone on the broadcast i don't think many of us would be mad at too many calls. Removing the k-zone might increase our enjoyment, we'd have to eyeball it like the umps and players do and not get mad so much about calls. If you get caught looking at strike 3 and its 2 inches outside thats partly your fault IMO for not protecting the plate with 2-strikes.

IMO signing virtually any player to a 10-year deal from around age 30-40 based on the stats they put up in their 20's is a dumb risk and most often fails. Swanson is going to age and decline eventually, if it hasn't happened already (unknown), we all know that. But he's put up more WAR so far over the last 2 seasons than the other 3 SS that winter and we won't have him until he's 40. He costs far less than Turner and Xander.

I don't think he has much Javy magic IMO. He's just overly aggressive and once or twice a week it bites him, not even including the lack of walks. Sometimes the aggresiveness works in his favour, and it's probably just luck whenever it works or not. I'm embarrassed for him on a regular basis, but he's young. Javy's brain was different.

Was there another buyout previously and owed this year? Boxberger is also owed 800k this year on a buyout.

Neris balked on pretty much every pitch that inning before the one they called a balk. You have to be pretty dumb to be a 35 y/o veteran and keep doing this as part of your routine while everyone has been reminding you constantly all season to stop.

Well i'll argue that umpiring has never been more accurate in the history of baseball, by orders of magnitude. They're kept honest by the fact that players and fans and the league can see if they're wrong now with the K-zone on the broadcast etc and so they'll get criticized and embarrassed when missing calls unlike 20+ years ago when strikezones were at the umps complete whim.

Yeah, but getting that 1st round bye is pretty huge, for a best of 3 WC series too. He only throws like 10 pitches an appearance anyways so he's not working near as hard as say Neris haha