Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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The integrity of the game matters a lot more than Sosa or Ricketts. Sosa is sorry not sorry and Ricketts just wants to sell Cubs Con tickets and Sosa merch. They can both suck my balls and so can the jockstrap lickers.
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I think 65 IP from a reliever is like a position player getting 2-3 months worth of ABs. You get high variance from the small sample. Players are still better or worse but it can be skewed in small samples. Serious injury risk is also higher in pitchers. I don't know what the stats say about building a bullpen but we've been a bit deficient on late inning talent for significant periods the last 2 seasons. Talent being different than results. Having 2 guys with proven success would be nice so there's depth in case someone gets hurt who fails. Hodge has good stuff but far too inexperienced to rely on. There's room for taking chances on guys but when you build your late inning staff around those random arms it can take half a season to figure out roles and who doesn't suck and by that time you've blown several games. Whatever the Cubs have been doing lately is deficient.
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No why?
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I'm sure it was lol
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I forgot that he says he didn't break the law but PED use is illegal. Lol
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A lot of those projections seem closer to best case scenarios than average outcomes. But they are position totals and not individual player WAR. I'll say they lose 1.5 wins at 2b, gain a win in CF, and hopefully gain 2 wins each in RF, C, and 3b. I'll subtract 2 runs from the position player total due to unexpected injuries etc. So they're up 6.5 wins. SP I'll call it even with Taillon/Imanaga regression vs what Boyd & co add over Hendricks. Add a win if they sign another SP. Pen I'll add 1.5 wins assuming they sign some good arms that work out well. Total improvement over 2024 = 9 wins. 92 win team. Might be a little high assuming 2 win gains at 3b & C so I'll predict a 90 win team with some potential to gain a couple wins. Counsell goal accomplished.
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Well you could easily spend 40m on 2 good relievers and a SP. The bench money can be the difference between Buehler and Flaherty. It wouldn't be a bad idea to get a bench bat that can cover both 2b and 3b since we have some questions there. For the OF we have 4 starters so no real need there, we can use Canario. An injury could bring up Caissie.
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If those guys are projected bench players don't they belong on the bench? Why spend money on the bench when that money can be used on better starting players? Everyone is unproven until they play.
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That was a really weak apology where he tried to use injuries and wanting to play 162 as justification for cheating. And then says the stats from his era deserve more respect lol. Dude didn't regret anything. I get that he can't come out and admit PEDs for legal issues and formerly being under oath, but c'mon Sammy why you being such a b*tch still? I'm fine with him coming back, he was a fun player and was good to fans generally, but he's also an arse on this issue.
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Levine: Jesus Luzardo Deal With Cubs Is "Dead"
Stratos replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Maybe they turn to another trade opportunity. Buehler is fine in a bubble but having 2 recovering TJS guys with Boyd is not ideal. Limited IP and more performance unknowns. -
Hoyer said the other day that they're not just going to hand it to Shaw. He seems like the obvious frontrunner and if all things are equal he likely gets it, but if someone looks better in ST they might go that way, who knows. I think the job is up for grabs from the sounds of it. Last year offseason the Cubs were much more upfront about giving the job to Busch on OD and giving him a shot.
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No I also suggested going to get someone else in a trade or sign someone cheap as more insurance. Someone projected to be a 1 WAR is a 1 WAR player in my mind. They should absolutely be able to find someone cheap who can put up 1 WAR if Shaw fails. They did it with Tauchman and Wisdom. Moncada sucks, they could probably get as much WAR from Madrigal, who also sucks. Virtually every time they spend several million on a position guy in FA it turns out badly, with the exception of catcher since that's what most catchers cost. Villar, Andrelton Simmons, Mancini, Descalso if he counts etc. Experience doesn't matter at all if you can't play. I don't care what "a playoff team should do", I care about making the team as good as possible and you don't do that by wasting 6-8 million on a bad player. Either go get a 3B who doesn't suck or take that 6-8m and use it on their other spending to upgrade a mediocre player they may acquire to a good player, or a good player to a very good player. If they want to play a sucky player at 3B at least let him be really cheap. If they spend real money on someone i think he should be at least a 2 WAR type.
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I'm not sure i'm favour of spending 6-10m on a 1 WAR bench bat. I say spend on quality or go cheap. Kim seems out of their range and Moncada isn't good enough to spend decent money on. I'd probably rather try Shaw/Cowles/Workman and others at 3B and spend elsewhere than sign the next Trey Mancini. At 2B Triantos is another option along with Cowles/Shaw if Nico isn't ready, but its a bit thin, and Triantos could probably use another few months in AAA at least. Maybe they can swing a minor trade to shore up at 2B/3B.
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For Cody Poteet and cash.
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We're at about 26m right now according to FG. If they leave 10m in space for other moves then we have about 16m left to spend. 9m for Luzardo would mean 7m left to spend on the pen and any bench pickups. Trading Belli or another OF seems inevitable. If Belli's full contract goes then we have about 35m left to spend (not including the 10m cushion). We can get some quality pen arms and have money to spend on a corner IF bat.
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Imagine if they can't trade Bellinger so they trade Seiya instead. That would be a terrible.
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If they resign Tucker and keep the rest of their Iowa top prospects I could see them trading Suzuki and Happ next offseason. One of Alcantara/Caissie in corner OF, and one of them at DH. I think they'd likely leave DH open for prospects and spend that money elsewhere. If Tucker doesn't resign i think they likely keep one of Happ or Suzuki for 2026 and just take the QO, or trade them at the deadline if they suck.
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Not sure the projections before the trade. Yes they may have changed. Yes i agree, judging a guy based on wRC+ or OPS etc in a very small sample like Smith had is foolish. But i'm more looking at the tools which are far more important. MLB Pipeline has graded him at 50 power, which seems inaccurate. He's a big strong guy with an athletic swing, and the Cubs minor league hitting coordinator recently said the upside on him could be a 30-HR guy in the MLB. Smith has to be around a 55 or 60 on the power tool. Fangraphs projects 70 raw power, which might be a bit much. He's already rated at a 55 hit tool by MLB.com, he hit some HR to the opposite field in the minors, and his K% has been quite good so far at the levels he hit at. Cubs minor league hitting coordinator also commented on how good he is at hanging in on curveballs. These are some green flags to suggest at least a 50 hit tool. A 50+ hit tool and potentially 60 power with his 50 rated glove at a position not the easiest to find good talent is a very good prospect. MLB.com had Smith ranked below Triantos but it think that's pretty silly, Smith is a mid 1st rounder and Triantos was a 2nd rounder and Smith seems to have clearly better tools and upside.
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Yes if the projections changed then that changes things a bit. Also i'm not comparing Paredes and Tucker 1:1, obviously Tucker is clearly the better player. We have to factor Tucker only signed for a year, and if he does extend it will be at more or less market prices. We also have to factor losing Cam Smith (and also Wesneski), plus what we have in the org already. When a player has a few months where they're hitting much better than usual it usually doesn't extend across a whole season the next year, they were usually just hot. The one encouraging thing I see where Tucker could actually be breaking out is that he came back in Sept after missing a couple of months and hit even better than he did earlier in the year (which was still well above career norms). But i think assuming he's now a top 5 player is a big stretch. It's always possible but I wouldn't bank on it, its best case scenario and you don't project or make a bet on best case scenario, you bank on what's the most likely outcome.
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Hard to say this early in his career but I think its easily possible that Cam Smith was up there with Matt Shaw as the top prospect in the system. He may even turn out to be better than Shaw. Paredes is a projected 3.7 WAR player and they traded 3 years of him for 1 year of a projected 5 WAR player, plus Cam Smith and Wesneski. We gave up all that for a 1 season improvement of 1.3 WAR on a team that already had 4 quality starting OF and a bunch of good OF prospects in AAA. I think fans are biased towards hitting/offense. If Dansby or Nico's value came mostly from the bat they'd be much more popular. Preventing a hit with the glove that doesn't score doesn't show up for that player in the box score and its not as fun to watch. Tucker is a really good hitter but WAR is the only thing relevant. It's true that we're better next year though. It's very possible Hoyer made this trade to try to save his job. I still don't quite understand the math on this move.
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It would be ideal for them if they had a bench guy who can play both 3B and 1B like Wisdom did, though hopefully plays both better. Didn't seem last year like the Cubs want Busch to flop between 3B and 1B. I think defensively he could do it if the throwing was adequate. Not sure I can see a Goldschmidt type or anyone worth much money since they probably have other priorities like SP and relief. We also have 5 MLB OF's right now and bunch of good hitting prospects in Iowa so no need for a DH signing.
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Why you so crusty?
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So if we compare Ohtani and Soto's deal, even if we assume as players that they're of equal ability (which they aren't) the Mets just paid 300m for years 26, 27, and 28 for Soto. 100m AAV. Seems pretty dumb to me.
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There's a world, probably not option #1, where Busch is playing 3B and somebody else is at 1b. At least he gives us flexibility to find either a 3b or 1b to replace Paredes. Bellinger can play 1b but he's likely gone, so then we have Ballesteros, Mervis internally, maybe Long especially later in the year? They can acquire an MLB corner guy via trade or FA too. Shaw now seems the #1 option at 3B and Triantos at 2b moving forward when Nico leaves. I like the floor on Triantos but not a high celling.
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I said TOMORROW lol
