It's impossible to speculate. The Cubs might have preferred Shaw. I thought Shaw and Smith were about equal as prospects IMO when the Tucker trade was made, I thought they were our 2 best prospects considering Horton's arm issues. You give the edge to Shaw over Smith at that time because of the extra year, but Smith has always been very toolsy and athletic with high upside.
Shaw will hopefully be a good player for us. Sucks he's had a bad year hitting though and Smith/Paredes doing well, but that's baseball.