Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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I think he had a good chance to get more AAV in FA. This is a good deal for the Cubs. He must want to stay here, which is nice.
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He's not just a defensive player through, between the wRC+ and baserunning/stolen bases he's been worth around 9-10 runs above league average yearly. If he were an average baserunner and you instead added that value into his wRC+ it would probably be around 115-1118. He was a better offensive player than Happ was last year with a lower OPS and wRC+.
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Agree with this. Yes high contact guys can hit a lot more weak contact which will affect their EV numbers. But Nico's max EV last year was 1081, the worst on the team. He may be able to improve his power/bat speed/EV a bit but i just don't think he's a naturally powerful hitter and I don't think it makes any sense to significantly change Nico's approach to try to squeeze another 5 HR or whatnot out of him. We've seen him try to drive the ball at different times and it hasn't worked. He should lean into what he's good at IMO
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Bregman has below-average bat speed not near bottom of the league, and his avg EV and hardhit% is average not near bottom of the league. We've seen Nico try to pull balls in the air and it just doesn't work for him. Spraying linedrives and yanking liners down the 3b line for doubles seems to work a lot better for him
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Tucker will probably age better, but Tucker is a 5.0 WAR player and Nico is a 4.5 WAR player, the gap in value between them isn't very large. Fans and FOs are biased towards HR and offense. Bregman isn't a better player than Nico because one does it more with the bat and the other does it more with the glove and baserunning. You could throw Swanson in there too.
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Nico has poor bad speed and has never had anything but poor EV in his career.
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I agree Bregman is more likely to age better into the mid 30s. I'm interested to see if the 6 years starts this year or next year. I assume next year. I may have miscalculated, since this deal could be for ages 30-35 if it starts next year. The length is a concern for me, but I'm not a huge fan of the Bregman deal either. This team could start getting old quickly. especially if they resign any of Happ/Seiya. The Cubs haven't won anything even with these guys in their primes, they need to win over the next few years, this is our widow.
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I dunno i mean they gave him just 1 less year than Swanson and more than Bregman. Yeah guess we'll see.
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The Cubs just gave Bregman 30m AAV and he's 3 years older. Roughly the same fWAR. Even at 30m AAV it would be arguably a better contract than what Bregman got based on the age. But I don't think he gets 30m AAV, mostly because for whatever reason even a market run by FO ivy league stat geeks undervalues defense.
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It has to be at least 6/150. A year from FA there's no reason for Nico to sign much if any discount from FA prices. He's been around 4.5 WAR player, which is Bregman terrority, and he's younger, so it wouldn't surprise me if he got near Bregman/Swanson money. He deserves it.
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4 of the 6 years of the extension is from age 29-32 so it's really not that bad at all. Better ages than the Swanson and Bregman deals.
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Hard to see them counting on Conrad even if he were healthy all year. Possible but can't count on a guy who doesn;t have any pro ABs. Maybe Kepley would be ready, he could compete with Alcantara.
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Always thought it made the Caissie trade a bit odd for 2027+. Ideally i'd pass on both too, but we may not have that luxury, though with Nico locked up a trade is possible. If not Shaw then maybe Rojas. INF is now locked in longterm. I don't hate having a good player like Shaw on the bench. Guys get injured, he'll get his PA's like Zobrist did.
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6 years. That's a lot but i'm good with it, through age 34.
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Weird thing is we don't really know when these deals were actually completed. I think Nico's was done before today and they delayed announcing until after the Opening Day game so as to not distract from the game/festivities. Other deals could possibly be done as well and they're slow-rolling them, who knows. I love me some Happ, but if I were to choose I go with Seiya on an extension, we need to slug and I think he still has a bit of upside, I think he can have a 4 WAR year in him if healthy, avoids the usual extended slump, and plays RF all year over DH.
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A bunch of our SP have upside but some also have downside or regression risk for sure. It's a coin flip for how our rotation turns out. Cabrera could be a beast or have a lot of BB and/or get injured. Horton will almost certainly regress but could still be good (i'd be very fine with a healthy year with an ERA anywhere in the 3's), and i'd guess Boyd regresses a bit also (regardless of today's start). Taillon looks like father time is catching up, and Imanaga looks promising for a bounce-back but who knows with that terrible GB%. Hard to know how Steele does in his first year back, let's hope he ends strong for the playoffs.
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Nationals just pitched better than us today, and hit balls on the screws. 10+ runs given up to the Nats, yuck.
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Objectively yes.
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It's amazing that without a TV graphic that umps don't have access to during the game suddenly all of us are no longer ball-strike experts.
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Heck of a weather day to make your RF debut.
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Conforto and Carlson are around replacement value these days. There's always a modest chance they put it together and have a decent season, maybe 1-2 WAR if they played full time, the Cubs basically took a flier on them without much to lose. Conforto still had good bat speed metrics last year so the raw power is probably still there, and the BABIP was low so may have been unlucky a bit last year as you said. The speed and glove is poor. Carlson has below average bat speed and has never shown much power, with a decent glove. They both walk a lot. They're ok on the bench and can easily be cut if they stink. Like you said, if there's an injury I'd rather see what Alcantara can do if he's swinging well in Iowa. I'm not keen on his bat vs RHP or his overall hit tool but he has upside and is still quite young. He reminds me of a poor man's Oneil Cruz/Elly De La Cruz, but those guys aren't RHB so the breaking stuff won't kill them like it has Alcantara so far.
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I think Conforto, Carlson, and Kingery all stink. I'm fine with the Caissie trade but it definitely reduced our OF/DH depth and left us a bit exposed there. Very glad we have Shaw as INF depth but I think playing him in the OF is a bit of a desperation move given he has no pro experience there besides this ST. Hopefully our OF all stay healthy.
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I just looked up Neely's velo stats, he was throwing 93.6 this spring, was 94.4 last season and in 2024 threw 95.6 in AAA and 96.4 in 9 ip for the Cubs (possible adrenaline velo bump). So trending down so they cut bait i guess.
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Luke Little and Riley Martin and Maples haven't thrown a strike in their lives and the Cubs keep guys like that on the 40 and dump guys like Estrada and Neely who lose their release point for 1 season. I don't get it. Highly doubtful Neely gets through waivers.
