Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Looks like some injury reports are starting to be announced around the league as pitchers/ catchers report. Hopefully the Cubs do ok like last year.
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Has some promise though
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Would it really be that hard for them to tweak the design of these catapult-type devices for these poor fellas so to not look exactly like sports bras?
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Yeah I was just reading the convo and agreeing with you
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Very hard for me to see a world where Taillon does better than Gallen, unless something weird/unlucky happens. Can't see any reason he doesn't bounce back well.
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Do you guys think teams take recent footage of opposing. pitchers from upcoming teams they'll face and run software to analyze for pitch tipping? I bet they do...
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Cumulative hitting stats all have this flaw, and yes it can apply to everyone. Virtually guaranteed every team FO also uses some rate stat like "WAR per 600 PAs".
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I think Duran and Paredes are pretty equal as players, but the extra year of control for Duran I'd think the Astros would need to throw someone else in. Aren't the Astros wanting to trade Paredes because of salary? They might want someone pre-arb. I like Duran but on the Cubs he might need to be in LF so not sure what he'd do on the team this year, unless he's DH. Can the arm play in RF? Lefty bat, he's an upgrade over Mo at DH one assumes and keeps Mo in Iowa for defensive work.. Shaw for Duran seems even-ish to me but I might rather have Shaw with the 2 extra years, i think he'll hit. Duran bats leadoff thus gets tons more of PAs yearly so his WAR has been a bit inflated.
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I honestly don't know. You seem pretty confident. I just don't know how to predict these things at all. They seem pretty random to me, and the exceptions are not the general trend. But there may be players more or less likely to age better than others, and that's what Hoyer seems to be making a bet on, but it's still a matter of probability and not certainty, so we just have to see. Hoyer is far smarter than any of us here combined and his success rate with significant signings has been astonishingly good, which gives me some comfort he knows what he's doing here.
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Ultimately, Mo only has 1 tool that's above-average. It's a good tool, and probably the one you'd most want a player to have, but I still agree his paths to success are obviously limited. Average power, can't run, probably moves and throws below-average behind the plate. He'd better work really hard to become a good framer if he wants to stick at catcher. Kirk did it. Mo could spend 3 more full seasons in iowa catching and improve but it's still hard to see him moving or throwing at an average MLB ability. Some people are just bootyliscious.
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Yeah exactly, I'm not really worried about it. He's like a fish that can't help taking a bite at something shiny, but he is very talented and is left-handed so I think he'll probably be ok. VS LHP he might be hopeless.
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Well let's hope you're right. I'm sure some of the aging differences are due to a hitter's profile, and some of it just genetics. No stats to back this up, but I do notice that a lot of the guys who do age better than others seem to often be 1B or DH types. Like the guys you mentioned, and Freeman. Maybe it's the less wear and tear on the body, or maybe those guys just tend to be better hitters. Or maybe the stats don't really back it up LOL. Who knows.
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As an offensive player we have to factor in his slow baserunning too, which will bring his offensive value down. But the slow running also means he's very likely been a better hitter in the box throughout the minors than his wRC+ gives credit for because he's not beating out as many grounders, which would harm his BABIP.
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4 fWAR is 4 fWAR. Does it really matter if it accumulates in big bunches every 5 games or trickles slower every day? The thing with a top SP though is their value is amplified in the playoffs because they aren't starting every 5 games. I've always considered the biggest mark against allocating large money to a SP over a position player is the big difference in injury risk. Having 4 wins and 38m AAV of your payroll on the IL for a whole season from TJS could cost the Cubs or any team a playoff spot. I suspect this may be a big reason why Hoyer puts the big contracts into position guys over SP. The length of the Bregman vs Valdez contracts is a pretty big deal though too. Makes things closer for me.
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I like Shaw on the bench. Good glove, can play all 3 INF positions plus maybe OF, has speed on the bases, costs the minimum, can give our regulars a much needed day off or fill in for injury without being a huge detriment. I hope they don't trade away any position player at this point. Not thrilled with the OF depth in case of injury there, but I suppose Shaw could be an option there too, at least in a corner OF spot if Alcantara etc struggle to hit. I also think having the whole offseason to work on his stance/ approach at the plate and really settle into something he's comfortable with could help Shaw a lot.
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Both very good players. Both are about the same age, Bregman is a few months younger.
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I'd be happy if Cabrera has the same results he had last year. If he can just stay healthy and throw more IP that would be an improvement. His fastballs have been lit up the last 2 years so maybe there's something they could tweak there. I imagine it would help his BB/9 if he can actually trust his fb to get ahead on counts instead of relying so much on the change-up, unless he feels he can throw consistent strikes with it. Seemed to do fine last year.
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Oh boy...Sammy Sosa in Epstein files
Stratos replied to Manny Trillos Brother's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think it's time to finally sell my Sammy Sosa Todd McFarlane sports action figure. Takers? -
Hoyer said Cease had TJS in high school, then hasn't missed a start as an MLB'er. That's wild.
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Well Jed confirms they were in on Cease.
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I'd rather have PCA or another good prospect for 6 years than Baez for an extra year. But it's not an easy decision when you're contending. Hard to trade a Nico or Seiya/Happ right now. Yeah Brewers need to do this more than the Cubs do for sure though.
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Bob hasn't had a good winter of reporting.
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Yeah he's been underwhelming.
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Recent ZiPS projections don't seem to like Bregman going forward. They project his 3 year OPS+ at 109. I love that the Cubs decided to spend, not sure I like that contract though. Between him vs extending Nico i'd go with Nico, based on the ages. Maybe both happen though.
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Between Nico, Happ, and Seiya, Nico is the one you'd want to extend IMO. He's the better and the youngest of the three. He probably gets a 4-5 year deal (probably deserves a bit longer), which is fine, that would make him 33 or 34 when the contract is done, which is decent. A 4 year deal for Seiya or Happ would start at age 32 through age 35 and you'd expect decline through around half the contract. The position player pool in free agency is terrible next winter. Nico looks like the best position player on the market. On the other hand, at some point you have to give the next generation of players a chance, so i'd have no issues going with Shaw next year. Letting go of Javy, Bryant, and Rizzo worked out for us.
