Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Nico has poor bad speed and has never had anything but poor EV in his career.
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I agree Bregman is more likely to age better into the mid 30s. I'm interested to see if the 6 years starts this year or next year. I assume next year. I may have miscalculated, since this deal could be for ages 30-35 if it starts next year. The length is a concern for me, but I'm not a huge fan of the Bregman deal either. This team could start getting old quickly. especially if they resign any of Happ/Seiya. The Cubs haven't won anything even with these guys in their primes, they need to win over the next few years, this is our widow.
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I dunno i mean they gave him just 1 less year than Swanson and more than Bregman. Yeah guess we'll see.
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The Cubs just gave Bregman 30m AAV and he's 3 years older. Roughly the same fWAR. Even at 30m AAV it would be arguably a better contract than what Bregman got based on the age. But I don't think he gets 30m AAV, mostly because for whatever reason even a market run by FO ivy league stat geeks undervalues defense.
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It has to be at least 6/150. A year from FA there's no reason for Nico to sign much if any discount from FA prices. He's been around 4.5 WAR player, which is Bregman terrority, and he's younger, so it wouldn't surprise me if he got near Bregman/Swanson money. He deserves it.
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4 of the 6 years of the extension is from age 29-32 so it's really not that bad at all. Better ages than the Swanson and Bregman deals.
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Hard to see them counting on Conrad even if he were healthy all year. Possible but can't count on a guy who doesn;t have any pro ABs. Maybe Kepley would be ready, he could compete with Alcantara.
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Always thought it made the Caissie trade a bit odd for 2027+. Ideally i'd pass on both too, but we may not have that luxury, though with Nico locked up a trade is possible. If not Shaw then maybe Rojas. INF is now locked in longterm. I don't hate having a good player like Shaw on the bench. Guys get injured, he'll get his PA's like Zobrist did.
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6 years. That's a lot but i'm good with it, through age 34.
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Weird thing is we don't really know when these deals were actually completed. I think Nico's was done before today and they delayed announcing until after the Opening Day game so as to not distract from the game/festivities. Other deals could possibly be done as well and they're slow-rolling them, who knows. I love me some Happ, but if I were to choose I go with Seiya on an extension, we need to slug and I think he still has a bit of upside, I think he can have a 4 WAR year in him if healthy, avoids the usual extended slump, and plays RF all year over DH.
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A bunch of our SP have upside but some also have downside or regression risk for sure. It's a coin flip for how our rotation turns out. Cabrera could be a beast or have a lot of BB and/or get injured. Horton will almost certainly regress but could still be good (i'd be very fine with a healthy year with an ERA anywhere in the 3's), and i'd guess Boyd regresses a bit also (regardless of today's start). Taillon looks like father time is catching up, and Imanaga looks promising for a bounce-back but who knows with that terrible GB%. Hard to know how Steele does in his first year back, let's hope he ends strong for the playoffs.
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Nationals just pitched better than us today, and hit balls on the screws. 10+ runs given up to the Nats, yuck.
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Objectively yes.
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It's amazing that without a TV graphic that umps don't have access to during the game suddenly all of us are no longer ball-strike experts.
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Heck of a weather day to make your RF debut.
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Conforto and Carlson are around replacement value these days. There's always a modest chance they put it together and have a decent season, maybe 1-2 WAR if they played full time, the Cubs basically took a flier on them without much to lose. Conforto still had good bat speed metrics last year so the raw power is probably still there, and the BABIP was low so may have been unlucky a bit last year as you said. The speed and glove is poor. Carlson has below average bat speed and has never shown much power, with a decent glove. They both walk a lot. They're ok on the bench and can easily be cut if they stink. Like you said, if there's an injury I'd rather see what Alcantara can do if he's swinging well in Iowa. I'm not keen on his bat vs RHP or his overall hit tool but he has upside and is still quite young. He reminds me of a poor man's Oneil Cruz/Elly De La Cruz, but those guys aren't RHB so the breaking stuff won't kill them like it has Alcantara so far.
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I think Conforto, Carlson, and Kingery all stink. I'm fine with the Caissie trade but it definitely reduced our OF/DH depth and left us a bit exposed there. Very glad we have Shaw as INF depth but I think playing him in the OF is a bit of a desperation move given he has no pro experience there besides this ST. Hopefully our OF all stay healthy.
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I just looked up Neely's velo stats, he was throwing 93.6 this spring, was 94.4 last season and in 2024 threw 95.6 in AAA and 96.4 in 9 ip for the Cubs (possible adrenaline velo bump). So trending down so they cut bait i guess.
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Luke Little and Riley Martin and Maples haven't thrown a strike in their lives and the Cubs keep guys like that on the 40 and dump guys like Estrada and Neely who lose their release point for 1 season. I don't get it. Highly doubtful Neely gets through waivers.
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Neely we hardly knew ye.
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Yeah he played 1b the other day Apparently before the Austin injury Counsell said Busch had earned the right to play without a platoon anyways. Maybe Austin was going to get more time at DH vs LHP than anything.
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Even if it doesn't happen he was still a 5.4 fWAR player. Because of the walks and chase i think he'll typically be limited to sub-120 wRC+ numbers. I hope I'm wrong but i think the plate discipline will always haunt him and will prevent him from reaching his offensive potential similar to Javy. If PCA could manage just an average BB% his ceiling would be sky high. He could steal many more bags, get better pitches to drive, and hit higher in the order. I like his athleticism in box a lot.
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I think this is a good deal for both sides.. Looking at recent 5 WAR players like Bichette and Tucker, they made 4-5m in their first arb year, 12m in the 2nd year, and around 17m in the 3rd. That's around 35m total in arb. With inflation let's assume PCA could make up to about 45m in his arbitration years pre-FA. That means the Cubs will effectively be paying about 70m (35m AAV) for Pete's first 2 free agent years, while the Cubs assume all the risk here. And Pete still gets to hit FA at a good age. Looking at Tucker's FA deal, 5 WAR in FA at those ages is worth about 55m AAV, and will be higher with inflation when Pete is 29-30.
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Very true about the legs. Id love to see a sprint speed regression chart like we've seen with bat speed.
