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Stratos

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Everything posted by Stratos

  1. Stratos
    He needs to keep working on his hitting and his defense at 3B, SS, and 2B, which isn't light work. IMO I don't see a reason for him to put work in at 1B given all the other options there. He could grab a glove and take some reps in CF/OF (which he seems to be doing already thanks to footage someone posted on social media), but I don't see 1B as a position that's going to be needed for him. At most maybe CF in a pinch. Between having a short ST due to injury and the early Opening Day in Japan, plus having to significantly retool his stance/approach in the middle of the season (bigger changes than PCA or Amaya were asked to do IMO), plus still learning a relatively new position at the MLB level, I think Shaw was asked to do a lot as a rookie last year, and did an ok job at it. He still has work to do with his hitting, I worry a bit about his plate coverage, but IMO we don't have much of a grasp on what he can really do at the plate. He was a very good prospect with a lot of success at every level below the MLB.
  2. Stratos
    Would be a mistake to assume Bregman, Swanson, and Nico don't get injured this year. Shaw adds depth as a bench backup. Do we want replacement or sub-replacement production if one of those guys is out for a month and a half,? eg a Brujan or Mastrrobuoni type getting daily PAs? Do we want a hole at 2b next season if Nico walks? Trading Caissie took away backup depth for this year and starting options for 2027 if/when FAs walk. So we want to do it again? We could maybe get like a 1.5 WAR upgrade at SP if we trade Shaw due SP, but also a 1.5 or 2 WAR or so downgrade on the bench seeing what the Brujan/Mastrobuoni types put up. So what's the point?
  3. Stratos
    He had 9 defensive runs saved last year. DRS and UZR/150 love him, hence the hardware. OAA and FRV has him as average.
  4. Stratos
    Anytime remember the fans that argued that Mark Prior just wasn't tough enough and should have pitched through it?
  5. Stratos
    Happ has won 4 gold gloves in a row.
  6. Stratos
    Chatgpt answers: Houston Astros outfielder Chas McCormick has dealt with several injuries, most recently a left oblique strain in mid-2025 that sidelined him for nearly two months, and previously a fractured right hand in late 2024, along with a right hamstring issue earlier in 2024,
  7. Stratos
    He has strong splits and hits LHP very well and poor vs RHP. Can DH vs LHP and also has ability to play CF. Also has some options left.
  8. Stratos
    So I just looked it up. ZiPS factors in defense and park factor into its ERA projections. That could maybe explain why ZiPS has good projections for everyone's ERAs.
  9. Stratos
    But who plays 2b next year? I can see Nico traded before Shaw. I think they'd be foolish to trade either. They have to try to win this year. Replacing Nico, Happ, and Seiya next year with equal production is very unlikely to happen. There's no free agent at those positions available in FA next year as good or cheap as those guys and we don't have prospects at those positions as good as them. They also have to replace Boyd, again good and inexpensive.
  10. Stratos
    Bichette in, Alonso out. Devin Williams in, Diaz out. Semien in, Nimmo out. Polanco in. McNeil out. They're up Peralta and Robert Jr though. They seem better on paper. SP was the issue last year and it seems improved.
  11. Stratos
    Do you know if ZiPS calculates ERA while factoring in defense, or does it factor out defense like xFIP? And does their WAR projections use ERA with defense factored, or defense neutral (xFIP) like fWAR does? Their ERAs are projected better than the other projection systems. I wonder why. Without more data looks like they assume the HR issues with Wicks and Brown were just bad luck.
  12. Stratos
    Yeah without more data they have to assume for now that his overperformance was largely luck, defense, and other factors outside his control. They project a 3.89 ERA from Horton, which is reasonable enough and I'd take that. They have him at 125 IP, which is also reasonable given his young age and injury history. His WAR will increase if he stays healthy and throws more IP. Projections are always based on the 50th percentile outcomes (what is most likely to happen). Any player can outperform or underperform that. They have 80th and 20th projectile projections for each player listed too, which is nice.
  13. Stratos
    I really hope not. But realistically they have the farm to do it obviously.
  14. Stratos
    Did the Cubs system even produce a major league hitter in the. 90s that wasn't terrible? Lol. For years it was Brooks Kieschnick as our big hitting prospect, then Kevin Orie. What a terrible org back then. I remember liking Kevin Roberson in the early/mid 90s because of his power.
  15. Stratos
    Yeah having 3 to 4 WAR projected at every position besides DH is really good. They aren't very high on Mo but he's a rookie so makes sense. He also doesn't have big power so the SLG projection is modest. I hate that they only show OPS+ and not wRC+. OPS+ seems to run roughly 5 points higher than wRC+ for all our hitters last year so we can translate that. That would have Mo at around 102 wRC+ (plus poor speed lowers his offensive marks even more), yikes, hopefully we do ok at DH. Luckily we have Austin (vs RHP when not at 1b) and Shaw as options at DH, plus Long in AAA. Not the best options but oh well. I don't think Jed is done adding to the bench. Overall I think our hitters are likely a little better than we think since they'd have been victims of Wrigley wind the last 2 years. They aren't particularly high on Bregman's bat especially power/SLG, maybe age but I assume change in ballpark is a factor. Nothing surprising at SP, lots of depth but mainly average SP with nice upside with Cabrera, Horton, Brown. I really like Brown if he can keep his fastballs in the ballpark.
  16. Stratos
    I was looking at footage of Cabrera pitching. How does someone throw a 94 mph change-up? Also, the guy throws 98mph but his fastball got lit up pretty hard the last 2 seasons, which probably explains why he throws his change-up more than any other pitch. We live in wild times.
  17. Stratos
    Maybe Gracie called Jim Hendry's wife a dingbat.
  18. Stratos
    Interesting, I never heard of those rumors. He was a very big guy. The thing with his injuries is most were freakish like Marcus Giles plowing into his shoulder and also getting a liner off his elbow that fractured it. He also was horribly abused by Dusty Baker. But Zambrano survived Dusty so maybe you're right, there's some fault of his body i guess.
  19. Stratos
    I looked at the OF free agents next offseason and besides Happ and Suzuki it's very thin, they're both the best in that class IMO. The next best are Randy Arozarena, Trent Grisham, and George Springer. It's going to be basically impossible to replace those 2 unless they resign 1 or both, make a trade, Alcantara performs beyond expectations, or Conrad or Kepley are ready by next year (seems unlikely).
  20. Stratos
    Hee Seop Choi. I thought he was a sure 30-40 HR guy in that era. They dumped Mark Grace for him. Juan Cruz was supposed to be better than Carlos Zambrano.
  21. Stratos
    Prior is probably the most talented pitcher I've ever seen throw in a Cubs uniform. I feel terrible for him because everything that happened to him wasn't his or his body's fault at all.
  22. Stratos
    True about covering CF. But. PCA never comes out of games because of the glove, so when he's out of the game it's from injury. Happ, or maybe Shaw or Suzuki could cover CF in a pinch for up to 1 game if they had to call up Alcantara if PCA gets hurt. Last year Alcantara hardly ever played when he was on the bench. Usually only as a pinch runner late. His main role on the bench would likely be as DH (or RF and shifting Seiya to DH) to platoon with Mo vs LHP, and he really isn't the most ideal bat for that role. I did see during an interview at the Cubs convention that Jed mentioned they're still looking for an OF bench bat after trading Caissie, and that positional versatility is very important for that role since there's hardly any platoons on the Cubs and the DH means there's much fewer pinch hit opportunities than when pitchers hit. Andujar can play all 4 corner positions and has DH experience so he could fit. But again the only position not really covered is CF.
  23. Stratos
    I think Andujar would be the 4th OF and DH vs LHP, (plus an option to backup 3B). He wouldn't take Austin's spot because Austin would likely always play 1b vs LHP. Andujar has only started 4 games at 1b in his mlb career.
  24. Stratos
    I think they really need to focus on pitching at this point. Cubs defense and Wrigley wind has been hiding a lot of holes there the last couple years. The hitting should be good, they don't have an obvious hole in any of the 9 lineup spots. Our worst regular hitter is still around league average, maybe better.
  25. Stratos
    Well last year he was 32, which isn't that old. He's right on the cusp of age regression though, which stats show seem to start on a league level at age 33 for bat speed. If he put up a career year this at age 34 then yes that's very rare.
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