30% is a 1 out of 3 chance though, which is very high. I'll mention something you'll like though. I thought about what other teams might want to sign him, and there's no obvious team. If you look at any other team with the payroll to sign him at 40m AAV almost all of them are stacked with big star contracts already,
Dodgers and Padres are likely tapped out, Yanks have Judge/Cole/Fried/Rodon, Phillies have Turner/Harper, Mets have Soto/Lindor, Jays have Vlad Jr, Texas has Seager/DeGrom, Giants have Devers/Adames/Chapman, Braves don't do these contracts etc.
Biggest contender might be the Red Sox (just dumped Devers' contract), and maybe a big spender like the Yanks wanting to add more. Astros may not have dumped him if they wanted to resign him.
If the Cubs want him I think they have a great shot, but again I really doubt Ricketts on that, and Jed is notorious for seeking good value contracts.