Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Well let's hope you're right. I'm sure some of the aging differences are due to a hitter's profile, and some of it just genetics. No stats to back this up, but I do notice that a lot of the guys who do age better than others seem to often be 1B or DH types. Like the guys you mentioned, and Freeman. Maybe it's the less wear and tear on the body, or maybe those guys just tend to be better hitters. Or maybe the stats don't really back it up LOL. Who knows.
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As an offensive player we have to factor in his slow baserunning too, which will bring his offensive value down. But the slow running also means he's very likely been a better hitter in the box throughout the minors than his wRC+ gives credit for because he's not beating out as many grounders, which would harm his BABIP.
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4 fWAR is 4 fWAR. Does it really matter if it accumulates in big bunches every 5 games or trickles slower every day? The thing with a top SP though is their value is amplified in the playoffs because they aren't starting every 5 games. I've always considered the biggest mark against allocating large money to a SP over a position player is the big difference in injury risk. Having 4 wins and 38m AAV of your payroll on the IL for a whole season from TJS could cost the Cubs or any team a playoff spot. I suspect this may be a big reason why Hoyer puts the big contracts into position guys over SP. The length of the Bregman vs Valdez contracts is a pretty big deal though too. Makes things closer for me.
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I like Shaw on the bench. Good glove, can play all 3 INF positions plus maybe OF, has speed on the bases, costs the minimum, can give our regulars a much needed day off or fill in for injury without being a huge detriment. I hope they don't trade away any position player at this point. Not thrilled with the OF depth in case of injury there, but I suppose Shaw could be an option there too, at least in a corner OF spot if Alcantara etc struggle to hit. I also think having the whole offseason to work on his stance/ approach at the plate and really settle into something he's comfortable with could help Shaw a lot.
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Both very good players. Both are about the same age, Bregman is a few months younger.
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I'd be happy if Cabrera has the same results he had last year. If he can just stay healthy and throw more IP that would be an improvement. His fastballs have been lit up the last 2 years so maybe there's something they could tweak there. I imagine it would help his BB/9 if he can actually trust his fb to get ahead on counts instead of relying so much on the change-up, unless he feels he can throw consistent strikes with it. Seemed to do fine last year.
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Oh boy...Sammy Sosa in Epstein files
Stratos replied to Manny Trillos Brother's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think it's time to finally sell my Sammy Sosa Todd McFarlane sports action figure. Takers? -
Hoyer said Cease had TJS in high school, then hasn't missed a start as an MLB'er. That's wild.
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Well Jed confirms they were in on Cease.
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I'd rather have PCA or another good prospect for 6 years than Baez for an extra year. But it's not an easy decision when you're contending. Hard to trade a Nico or Seiya/Happ right now. Yeah Brewers need to do this more than the Cubs do for sure though.
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Bob hasn't had a good winter of reporting.
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Yeah he's been underwhelming.
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Recent ZiPS projections don't seem to like Bregman going forward. They project his 3 year OPS+ at 109. I love that the Cubs decided to spend, not sure I like that contract though. Between him vs extending Nico i'd go with Nico, based on the ages. Maybe both happen though.
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Between Nico, Happ, and Seiya, Nico is the one you'd want to extend IMO. He's the better and the youngest of the three. He probably gets a 4-5 year deal (probably deserves a bit longer), which is fine, that would make him 33 or 34 when the contract is done, which is decent. A 4 year deal for Seiya or Happ would start at age 32 through age 35 and you'd expect decline through around half the contract. The position player pool in free agency is terrible next winter. Nico looks like the best position player on the market. On the other hand, at some point you have to give the next generation of players a chance, so i'd have no issues going with Shaw next year. Letting go of Javy, Bryant, and Rizzo worked out for us.
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He needs to keep working on his hitting and his defense at 3B, SS, and 2B, which isn't light work. IMO I don't see a reason for him to put work in at 1B given all the other options there. He could grab a glove and take some reps in CF/OF (which he seems to be doing already thanks to footage someone posted on social media), but I don't see 1B as a position that's going to be needed for him. At most maybe CF in a pinch. Between having a short ST due to injury and the early Opening Day in Japan, plus having to significantly retool his stance/approach in the middle of the season (bigger changes than PCA or Amaya were asked to do IMO), plus still learning a relatively new position at the MLB level, I think Shaw was asked to do a lot as a rookie last year, and did an ok job at it. He still has work to do with his hitting, I worry a bit about his plate coverage, but IMO we don't have much of a grasp on what he can really do at the plate. He was a very good prospect with a lot of success at every level below the MLB.
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Cubs, Giants Discussing Nico Hoerner Trade
Stratos replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Would be a mistake to assume Bregman, Swanson, and Nico don't get injured this year. Shaw adds depth as a bench backup. Do we want replacement or sub-replacement production if one of those guys is out for a month and a half,? eg a Brujan or Mastrrobuoni type getting daily PAs? Do we want a hole at 2b next season if Nico walks? Trading Caissie took away backup depth for this year and starting options for 2027 if/when FAs walk. So we want to do it again? We could maybe get like a 1.5 WAR upgrade at SP if we trade Shaw due SP, but also a 1.5 or 2 WAR or so downgrade on the bench seeing what the Brujan/Mastrobuoni types put up. So what's the point? -
He had 9 defensive runs saved last year. DRS and UZR/150 love him, hence the hardware. OAA and FRV has him as average.
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Cubs prospect/player you wanted to make it so bad but didn't
Stratos replied to CubinNY's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Anytime remember the fans that argued that Mark Prior just wasn't tough enough and should have pitched through it? -
Happ has won 4 gold gloves in a row.
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Chatgpt answers: Houston Astros outfielder Chas McCormick has dealt with several injuries, most recently a left oblique strain in mid-2025 that sidelined him for nearly two months, and previously a fractured right hand in late 2024, along with a right hamstring issue earlier in 2024,
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He has strong splits and hits LHP very well and poor vs RHP. Can DH vs LHP and also has ability to play CF. Also has some options left.
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So I just looked it up. ZiPS factors in defense and park factor into its ERA projections. That could maybe explain why ZiPS has good projections for everyone's ERAs.
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Cubs, Giants Discussing Nico Hoerner Trade
Stratos replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
But who plays 2b next year? I can see Nico traded before Shaw. I think they'd be foolish to trade either. They have to try to win this year. Replacing Nico, Happ, and Seiya next year with equal production is very unlikely to happen. There's no free agent at those positions available in FA next year as good or cheap as those guys and we don't have prospects at those positions as good as them. They also have to replace Boyd, again good and inexpensive. -
Bichette in, Alonso out. Devin Williams in, Diaz out. Semien in, Nimmo out. Polanco in. McNeil out. They're up Peralta and Robert Jr though. They seem better on paper. SP was the issue last year and it seems improved.
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Do you know if ZiPS calculates ERA while factoring in defense, or does it factor out defense like xFIP? And does their WAR projections use ERA with defense factored, or defense neutral (xFIP) like fWAR does? Their ERAs are projected better than the other projection systems. I wonder why. Without more data looks like they assume the HR issues with Wicks and Brown were just bad luck.
