Stratos

QUITTERS NEVER WIN AND WINNERS NEVER QUIT. EAT THESE BUSH- LEAGUE BITCHES. LET'S horsefeathers GOOOO!!!!!!

I mean maybe.

It could. Tucker/Seiya in RF/DH was about 7.5 WAR. So replaced with Seiya/ Caissie/Moises/Alcantara/Long/bench bat etc is maybe a difference of about 2-3 wins. You could grab 1-2 WAR upgrade signing a good SP, and if eg Shaw and Amaya have good years that's another 1-2 WAR. Last halfs of offense don't typically carry over to the next year. Didn't after 2023 or 2024. It's usually just randomness.

Why did you cherry-pick around the terrible start he had vs the Mets on Sept 25? Shota had a 6.51 ERA in Sept and was the worst qualified SP in the baseball in Sept. in terms of fWAR. Then he got lit up by the Padres in the NLWC. Colin Rea was the best SP in baseball in Sept in fWAR, the choice seemed obvious: Go back to Aug 1 and Rea is still better (this doesn't even include Shota's bad start vs Padres in NLWC: Shota's ERA in Aug was good but his xFIP was average, He pitched twice at Wrigley with the wind blowing in from CF and another start at Wrigley vs the Pirates, then started in STL (they suck) and in SF (huge OF). Given how he's been pitching he's likely not going to be good unless he's pitching at Wrigley with the wind blowing in.

It wasn't scientific....it was super scientific! (or not). Here's all the position players aged 34 or older this season. You have to be a freak to be above-average at that age. Nico's first season in his next contract he'll be 30 y/o:

People won't like this opinion but the Cubs aren't going to get much better if at all via free agency from what they had all year this year. Unless Ricketts ups the payroll to do something like both keep Tucker and acquire a quality SP. If Tucker walks then at best we replace the value via free agent SP etc. Otherwise the gains need to come from our young players getting better. Shaw, PCA, Amaya, Brown etc plus some of the Iowa guys. Still a 90 win team even if we don't improve over this year.

The Shota start might have been more questionable than the Boyd start IMO. At least he hadn't been terrible his last month in every single start.

Oh ok, It's so confusing LOL. Well could he beat 2/30 or whatever he's due the next 2 years with us? I wouldn't give him 3 years.

Shota is down 1 mph this year and not getting younger. His K/9 is down significantly and guys teeing off on his FB and inducing a lot of flyballs. His HR/FB is league average but has done this in a pitcher friendly park that inhibits HR. Our elite defense obviously makes his other numbers better. If they want to upgrade their SP beyond league average then they need to look at upgrading guys like Taillon, Imanaga, and Rea. Being solid isn't good enough. Shota has 2 more years guaranteed with us plus a player option for 2028 if we decline 2028. The opt-in this winter is for 2028, there's no team opt out. He's on the team next year and 2027.

Yeah. Tucker and Happ having a bad playoff, PCA and Shaw look completely overmatched, Swanson is Swanson, Kelly is Kelly. Pitching bad and hitting bad isn't a good combo.

If we get 2 WAR worse at 2B and get 2 WAR better at SP I don't think it makes a difference at all. A SP in the playoffs only throws 4 IP now apparently anyways so their value is even less in the playoffs. Our SP just happened to be performing terrible this round, but Boyd and Shota aren't bad pitchers, they're above average but struggling at this point in the season. We do need to acquire another good SP though. You could resign Nico to a 4 or 5 year deal or whatever. He's also a SS for teams so we need to keep that in mind. He could get 5/125 or something like that. But we can't expect him to remain a 4 WAR player in his 30's. From age 30-35 I could see something like 4.0 WAR, 3.5, 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0. Would I pay 5/125 for that? No. Shaw can play 2B also so we have to find either a 3B or a 2B to replace Nico and finding a 4.5 WAR guy there probably won't happen. Resigning Tucker probably nabs us around 2.0 extra WAR over whatever his replacement would be over the next 4 seasons or so until he starts to regress. If the Cubs can figure out a better way to spend 350 million or whatever over the next 8-10 years that nabs us more WAR then do it. e.g. 1 WAR upgrade at SP and another 1 WAR at another position does that. They could literally just trade Taillon and replace him by signing an above average FA SP (I consider Taillon an average SP) then sign another above average SP. Boom 2 WAR.

Fans are biased towards offense and especially HR. They're still in love with Schwarber meanwhile Nico and Swanson are massive underrated on this team. Literally zero difference in getting a hit vs taking one away with the glove, it just feels different. If Nico was an average defender and hitting 4.5 WAR worth of HR there'd be Nico jerseys everywhere. He's the best 2B in baseball.

wRC+ doesn't factor in stolen bases or baserunning. He's been an above average offensive player each of the last 4 seasons, contributing on average about 9 offensive runs above the average player per year. With average defense he'd be somewhere around a 3.0 WAR player. Adding the glove he's in the mid 4's

Sounds like something I'd say. But Shota is a HR machine and Boyd got annihilated too. I'd throw something else at the wall and see if it sticks. Soft-tossing lefties ain't it apparently.

Bellinger should be a FA this winter lol.

No way Boyd and Shota can start again this series. Needs to be Rea in Game 5 with Game 4 using Brown/Civale/pen or get Assad on the roster.

They needed Tucker these playoffs but he's not around. Seiya can't do all the heavy lifting.

Yeah. On the positive the next 2 are in Chicago.

Moises hitting for Shaw if he gets up id think?

Gets paid in a lockout but not if they strike i believe. But Jason is right in that if you want to have a strong full season to prove worth a shortened one with a short Spring isn't it. He doesn't want to opt out the 2nd year if preferred, he'll be 30. He'll want a longterm deal with opt outs, not short term high AAV, at least in my opinion.

He's young enough I think he still gets a very good deal with opt outs if the medicals check out ok.

They could buy low on him. The worry is if he's still injured in the hand. But i guess the Cubs would know better than anyone. But I don't think Tucker will accept any deal without opt-outs out the ying yang.

Shota leads baseball in flyball rate and also HR/9. Not a coincidence obviously. They might want to fix that. If you give up 29% groundballs and you're not K'ing everyone you're probably going to suck. I'm no expert but rule of thumb is you either get the ball way up, way inside, or otherwise keep it low and away or at least away so they can't pull.

The lady with the honkers in the first row is still there at least. She's marking. every pitch on paper.

It's a very complicated contract.