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Stratos

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Everything posted by Stratos

  1. Stratos
    Agreed. Grab a solid vet or 2 for the 7th/8th innings to stabilize things a bit but otherwise go with cheap finds. We saw what happened with Yates and Scott on the Dodgers this year. Pens are too volitile to spend a lot of money on, and lots of guys improve any given winter and you don't really know who will pop off. Cubs method works with their budget. They'll allocate that money to another position anyways.
  2. Stratos
    Fine suggestion. I wonder if the Cubs still want a guy who can hit LHB like Castro for the INF backup role since our starting SS/2B/3B are all RHB? Or do they just want more RHB on the bench in general, including who could sometimes DH vs LHP? Problem is most of our guys don't get pinch-hit for because of their fielding value so the whole righty-lefty thing isn't an issue other than possibly Shaw, but even he has a lot of glove value. Would love to have a quality INF bench guy to keep guys fresh through the summer months. I'd probably target a RHB because of the likely DH platoon. Even if they acquire a bench OF RHB the INF RHB bat can be serve as a backup.
  3. Stratos
    If any of the rookie bench candidates needs regular PA's in Iowa instead of rotting on the bench it's probably Alcantara. There's virtually no playing time in the OF unless there's injury or Seiya is DH. If they spend any money on a FA OF bench guy it's probably more geared to someone who can DH as RHB (or push Seiya to DH). Cubs had some struggles vs LHP so I'd be ok getting FA RHB at both bench 1B and bench OF/DH who can smash LHP. Or vs LHP Alcantara could start in RF and Seiya at DH, while vs RHP it's Seiya + Caissie or Ballesteros (can't see both as LHB being rostered with a 4-man bench). You're right in that it's unlikely Jed makes bets on 2 rookies in Long/Alcantara to be able to smash LHP, it's too risky, especially with so many young players already in the starting lineup.
  4. Stratos
    I like Shaw, he had major hoops to jump through his rookie year with the major stance/swing changes they made with him (with likely more to come). Much bigger changes than PCA and Amaya made in 2024. IMO it was a bit unfair they had Shaw adjust to those major changes at the MLB level as a rookie. I think he did fine, especially considering the short Spring Training he had and early season start in Japan. Struggling against those beast pitchers the Cubs saw in the playoffs isn't surprising or alarming. He was a really good hitter in college and the minors and showed extended flashes in 2025 so i think he's a work-in-progress but medium and longterm will be a good player and has the fielding floor to be worth the early struggles.
  5. Stratos
    Yeah, they have to replace almost the entire bullpen and every late-inning arm minus Palencia. Jed will be busy.
  6. Stratos
    Other thing is if Long stunk as the bench RHB there's no backup. They'd probably sign some Patrick Wisdom/Schwindel type and keep them in AAA, which isn't terrible but as good as signing a guy like Goldschmidt and at least Long is the backup for him.
  7. Stratos
    I think it will be the 1st list. Alcantara can play any OF position and vs LHP he can possibly hit as a RHB for Ballesteros/Caissie at DH or RF. Long could be that platoon RHB at DH but he lacks positional versatility, and he's also hit RHP better than LHP in the minors the last 2 seasons (that may change). Cubs seem to like at least 1 veteran on the bench which may negate Long's chances as the 1B RHB, and it's difficult for rookies to succeed at hitting while being the short end of a platoon with limited PA's. The veteran INF backup will hopefully be able to hit LHB like Castro since Shaw/Nico/Dansby are all RHB. I'd be fine bringing back Castro but he likely wants more PA's wherever he signs.
  8. Stratos
    Agree with this, except I think they keep both Alcantara and Caissie, especially for 2027. In 2026 Alcantara is our PCA backup in CF in case of injury and Caissie if our corner OF injury backup plus a DH candidate in 2026 if Ballesteros gets hurt or he struggles. I think the Cubs meet their SP needs this winter in FA, there's no reason not to. Like you said, someone like Woodruff, King, Bieber etc. We know from last winter they don't want to sign a TOR to a big longterm contract if they can avoid it. They'll likely target all the good FA SP's and sign the one that comes in on the most sensible contract like they usually do. Hopefully our rotation peaks later in the season than they did this year.
  9. Stratos
    Unless they're under .500 at the end of July it's hard for me to see anyone being sold off between now and next offseason, plus the NTC's being an issue. Nobody besides Nico is good enough to bring in a haul significantly bigger than a comp pick to be worth trading unless they're out of it. I think it's pretty likely that Happ, Seiya, and Nico aren't on the team in 2027. Nico might be the best bet to re-sign since he's harder to replace. We'll miss Happ in spirit but in terms of age the timing is right to let him go after 2026. In 2027 I could see Caissie in RF and maybe a new FA in LF. It's not worth worrying about 2027 right now IMO, especially with the CBA/lockout being unknown factors. Cubs need to focus on pitching. 1 good SP and rebuilding the pen. We're in a good position with a lot of good SP on the market this winter.
  10. Stratos
    Yes. But given the revenue-to-payroll ratio of the Cubs compared to most other teams, the Cubs seem more geared toward profit than other MLB teams. Or maybe they're just going about it a different way, possibly because we have a unique fanbase and unique ballpark that gives the Cubs a higher floor in terms of attendance, rating, merch etc. Other teams may need to spend more to put a good team on the field in order to attract desirable attendance, ratings etc. I don't like my loyalty taken advantage of. I think this is a terrible way to run a business. It's probably good in the short-term but in the long-term the loyalty of fans will falter. It's just soulless greed in a business where you're selling hope and good feelings as a service. You can't run a baseball team like a shoe company because it's about people and social connections and other emotions, not just coldly consuming a product. The goal is to make your customers feel good by winning, creating a positive ballpark atmosphere, connecting to players and tv announcers etc. Turning historic Wrigley into an amusement park/casino like other teams do and slapping ads on the uniforms while putting half-effort into payroll doesn't make me feel good, it makes me sad and frustrated.
  11. Stratos
    The primary goal of this organization is to make as much profit as possible. Winning a WS or making the playoffs only matters to them in the context of making profits and the cost/benefits of spending payroll to try to go so. They reduced payroll last offseason. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again. I don't see any correlation between revenue and payroll with this team. If Wrigley filled its seats just the same with a 140m payroll and a 4th place team then I'd assume they'd run a 140m payroll. I'm expecting a signing like King or Bieber at SP and the usual mix of veterans and bargain bin signings in the pen. This FO rarely buys high on FAs. Most fans are emotional and illogical and have problems delaying gratification so typically want to buy high regardless of the longterm consequences. They'd be terrible playing the stock market. Maximizing return on investment is what matters to this FO and ownership, besides last offseason when Jed's job was on the line which i assume was a factor with the Tucker trade, which necessitated short-term over longterm gains. The fundamental cause of the conflict between Cubs ownership and fans is that their goals are different. Fans don't care about profits and ownership doesn't care about winning outside of a means of generating more profit.
  12. Stratos
    Credit to the Toronto ownership and FO. They ponied up to keep Vladdy, brought in Hoffman, acquired Bieber at the deadline. Jays have 280m tax payroll and have to pay the US exchange rate on top of that. Dodgers also have to pay 160m in luxury tax payments this year. Dodger's total tax payroll plus tax hit is 580 million! Ricketts are not serious owners and probably cost us a trip to the NLCS.
  13. Stratos
    Peralta will only make 8m next year so he could bring the Brewers a nice package.
  14. Stratos
    Good catch on the arm angle. Could be a combo of both, who knows. Cubs have been excellent at evaluating pitching talent so I trust the Cubs to figure out if it's fixable and if they should bring back Shota.
  15. Stratos
    Since he's from Japan I have some doubts that Shota has ever been through a velo program. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in throwing 93 in spring training wherever he's playing. It's also pretty hard for him to do any worse with his fly ball rate than he did this year, there's room for improvement there.
  16. Stratos
    Finding a good corner OF is the easiest of any position, thankfully. Not worried about it. I think they should see what they have in Caissie. Maybe Alcantara can breakout but I have serious doubts hitting-wise. I think Caissie has a good chance he can replace one of Happ/Seiya just fine, so then we can find another corner OF in free agency to replace the other. We also have Ethan Conrad but who knows how that goes.
  17. Stratos
    Yeah and most of them probably don't give to 2 effs about the Cubs winning or losing and just want as much money as possible, which is exactly how they seem to run the team.
  18. Stratos
    He'll be 32 the first season if we extend/resign him, and he'll probably want 4 years or so. Let him walk. We got his prime seasons, great signing by Jed. Jed's been very good on his spending on his larger contracts. Extending Happ and Nico, signing Imanaga, Dansby, Seiya. Taillon's been solid. Bellinger and Stroman were good contracts. This is why it sucks to trade a guy like Cam Smith. You don't know if he's going to turn into a good player or not, but you know he's not going to age like milk on your watch while earning a gazillion dollars. I'll take Shaw over Bregman too. You take Bregman on his contract last year, but he's probably going to want something more longterm now. He's also been playing in Houston and Boston, notoriously good parks for RHB so I assume his stats are inflated a bit.
  19. Stratos
    Shouldn't they just be focused on preventing runs and acquiring the best pitchers possible? Doesn't really matter if it's via adding K's or groundballs, or reducing walks or HR etc
  20. Stratos
    2025 the Cubs SP were 8th in ERA but 14th in xERA, 23rd in xFIP, and 17th in WAR. There's no doubt the winds of Wrigley and the Cubs elite defense has made Cubs pitchers overperform. The pen as well by that logic. The rotation was likely average to below-average. Steele is an unknown, Taillon/Imanaga/Boyd/Rea will be a year older with more possible velo drops, but a full year from a more experienced Horton. Agree they could use a good SP.
  21. Stratos
    In order to make SP go longer in games, especially in the playoffs, i'd like to them reduce the max # of pitchers a team can carry. They also need to limit off-days in playoffs to travel days.
  22. Stratos
    Anyone have a link the Jed's presser today? edit: https://www.mlb.com/video/live-jed-hoyer-media-availability-192771
  23. Stratos
    We got 4.0 WAR out of catcher last year after negative WAR the year before. By far the biggest positional improvement on the team. I don't expect the same year from Kelly but I would change as little as possible there and would rather have depth anyways. McGuire is likely going to sign elsewhere in FA anyways based on playing time alone even if we wanted him back so Mo can be the 3rd catching option while likely DH'ing most games.
  24. Stratos
    Biggest question for me for Mo is the throwing. Big guy needs to shift and move quick to get a good pop-time. Catchers can always keep improving their craft but i assume the Cubs have a good idea at this point of Mo's defensive ability and future catching. Looked up Kirk on Savant, his pop- time was average this year after being below average for a few seasons prior.
  25. Stratos
    He's lost a bunch of weight over the seasons.
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