Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Gotta think there'd be a trade if that had happened. Seems like Hoyer is trying to be flexible and creative and I think most of the Cubs who are FA next offseason could also be trade candidates. Whatever prospects they got in return could be flipped for a SP. Wouldn't be surprised if Hoyer has checked in on the price for pretty much every quality FA on the market.
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How would the potential lockout make prices go up? Honest question
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Alonso contract sucks, and so does the Schwarber one. Either the price of players has suddenly increased significantly or they're smoking crack.
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This just speaks to the volatility of relievers and pens. Obviously they were wrong on Pressly and others. I'm sure we spend more on another reliever or 2 but Jed also said at the meeting already that they'd rather spend resources towards other parts of the team.
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These would be solid. I wish we could do better.
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Seems like significant overpay. And his WAR numbers have been padded by extra PA's in the leadoff slot.
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That sucks.
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What Counsell said tracks more with how long most SP return from TJS. Some brief appearances in ST then April/May in Tennessee and maybe a June return makes sense.
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He was probably using. Pretty sure Jim Thome was using, the guy was massive and didn't start out that way. There's a lot of users that will get in because they just were never linked to PEDs. The whole era was an unfortunate joke. I can remember how often guys hit opposite field HR, and that just doesn't happen too often these days. And guys now are ripped, they just don't have that bulk.
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Levine reported today that Hoyer said generally 90% of rumors on the web are false. But then maybe that also has a 90% chance of being false LOL. Rumors are very enticing to follow day to day in the offseason but let's face it, most of the time the offseason is pretty dumb for us fans.
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3B reports could be click-bait, or agents playing games, or Jed covering his tracks. Who knows. It's all games.
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Problem is, unless they extend Nico again, there's a big hole at 2B next year and not much internally to fill that hole and 2B isn't typically a position with many good players in FA (or generally) and next year's crop of 2B/SS/3B doesn't look that good. Triantos isn't good enough a prospect to bank on. Several key Cubs players becoming FA next offseason. Signing a 3B this offseason would make that transition easier. It's possible they go over the LT a bit this offseason to sign both a quality SP and quality 3B and drop back under the LT in 2027 as cheap younger players like Shaw, Caissie, Mo, Alcantara, Wiggins step in to replace more expensive players like Nico, Happ, Seiya, Taillon/Boyd, Kelly next year. Maybe they re-sign 1 or 2 of those vets or sign other vets in FA, but the net result is likely to save them some payroll.
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FG has projections of 108 wRC+ for Mo next year, 103 for Caissie, 130 for Schwarber. Let's say with our in-house options we get about 108 wRC+ from DH next year, which is about average for the DH position. That equals about 1.0 WAR (which would be a bit better than what we got out of DH in 2025 due to slumping Suzuki and injured Tucker). Mo's offensive value goes down a bit due to his subpar baserunning too. Schwarber would (projected) add about 1.5 to 2 WAR. Meanwhile, Shaw is projected for 2.9 WAR, Bregman 4.0 WAR, and Suarez 2.6. Bregman is only projected 1.1 WAR better than Shaw. However, Bregman is an above-average fielder while Schwarber is terrible, and in theory Bregman or Shaw could also DH (especially against LHP) and Bregman is projected to hit better (120 wRC+) than Mo/Cassie, while Shaw (107 wRC+ plus good speed) is projected to hit about the same as Mo. Then we also have to factor the dollar cost of each option. A significant upgrade at SP probably nabs us an extra 2.0 WAR, maybe a bit more. In conclusion, it's a complex so who the heck knows haha.
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I think the whole offseason and budget is a puzzle for the FO. How do they add the maximum amount of WAR per the budget they're given? For a few years now their tactic has been to sign the contracts that appear to have the best bang for the buck and I think that will continue. Swanson, Suzuki, Imanaga, Boyd were good value compared to other FA's and let them put the money saved towards other players (sometimes that extra money saved was spent poorly). I'm not sure whether they're looking at signing both a quality SP and quality bat, or just one. I assume they're checking in on the price for everyone and will choose the players they think will add the most projected WAR to the team for the price over the length of the deal. I doubt the budget is over the LT (or if it is, isn't by much) Unfortunately it's impossible for us fans to predict what any given player is going to end up with in FA this offseason or how the Cubs value them so we have no idea who the Cubs will land. The best value contract typically isn't the best player available, which is why many fans are usually disappointed. But nobody can complain about what we've gotten out of Swanson, Seiya, Imanaga, Boyd.
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Cubs are going to target positions they're interested in improving, like SP, relief, and 3B, and Jed will almost certainly kick the tires on all the quality FA at those positions. The Cubs could be "reported" to have "interest" in all of them because they are. Otherwise Jed isn't doing his job. We know from previous seasons that Jed will likely settle on the player whose contract seems the best value over the length of the deal, and therefore improves the team the most over that time.
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Concerned about Gallen's falloff in K/9, chase %, and other metrics on BB Savant. Only 30 y/o though, and velo is still there. Agree they should do better.
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Why Imai so much?
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Hard to say when Steele will be ready for MLB action. I do think we could use another good SP, and hard to assume Steele will be good next year. I think going into the season with exactly the same rotation would be a mistake. If we have too many SP at the deadline that's a great problem, they could always trade one at the deadline instead of being buyers for SP. I'm fine with Mo/Caissie/Long/Alcantara etc competing for the last spot at DH/RF. Some platoon there will hopefully hit and we're not relying on 1 guy like we did Shaw last year. I'd also be happy if they signed another quality bat, but the fit is less obvious.
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Have to assume we add another SP, which would put Rea in the pen with Assad, but I'm also just going to assume 1 of our SP is basically always on the IL, so Rea or Assad are probably often in the rotation (or maybe Brown if he improves over this winter). I'd like them to sign 2 more quality established pen arms, and the other 3 spots can be a competition between our internal guys and whatever upside dumpster guys they invite to ST. That should leave some depth in case of 1-2 reliever injuries. I'm curious to see what kind of year Boyd has in 2026 after the workload of 2025.
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Chicago Cubs Have "Renewed Interest" In Alex Bregman
Stratos replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
That's what I think too. And any injury to Nico/Dansby/Bregman and Shaw is in the lineup I still don't like him though due to age+years he'll get. He was also one of the Astros sign-stealing cheaters, so there's that. -
Chicago Cubs Have "Renewed Interest" In Alex Bregman
Stratos replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If the Cubs didn't have Owen Caissie or Mo, you'd think they'd be in on Kyle Tucker. They'd likely lose the bid of course LOL, but the interest would be there. -
I agree we could really use another power RHB vs LHP. But I don't like Teo with the age/contract. Dodgers might send us money in a deal, but still not wild about it. We could get our RHB with a platoon bench bat for far cheaper. Not to mention he wasn't even good last year.
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He's tantalizing, but I have low interest in hitters 33+ years old, and even less in ones that will make substantial money/years. Good article.
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Cubs Reportedly Interested In Reliever Ryan Helsley
Stratos replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The pen in 23 and 24 eventually became effective. Unfortunately they were bad until June in both years before they figured out who was and wasn't effective and were able to dump the lame arms (and it possibly cost them a playoff spot both years). Basically trial and error. Not sure if this is entirely avoidable in this era unless they go out sign guys like Diaz who are still effective even when they're off. But if you spend on a guy like Diaz that money is being taken from another position in the budget like SP and weakening it, and there's still no guarantees. Pearson was sort of their Merryweather/Keller project but just didn't work out, so yeah there's definitely luck involved there. Even though small samples are volatile I do think better talent will be more likely to perform better during those samples. e.g. Juan Soto might have a bad month but he's more likely to have good month than an average hitter. But for relievers is it worth the money? If their plan is to win a WS it might be. -
Cubs Reportedly Interested In Reliever Ryan Helsley
Stratos replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Seems clear that pitching development is far different now than it was 10-15 years so pens have to be built differently. Jed said at the GM meetings that the Kittredge decision was mostly based on timing and needing to commit to him at the beginning of the offseason rather than having that money to sign arms late in the offseason. There's 4+ months between the end of the regular season and ST. That's a lot of development time. We know that any reliever these days can add a couple mph or a new/improved pitch in an offseason, or lose some velo or shape. So teams aren't just going by stats from last season, I'm sure they often see recent Trackman data or attend workouts. Waiting and sniping some trending guys in the new year for cheap (they got Keller on Jan 29 last year) is a good strategy, plus checking for declines for any FA veterans. The Cubs are ahead of the curve here it seems. Looks like they want some 2 yr deals for some consistency but otherwise are buying low on trending arms they can easily dump if they don't perform.
