Stratos

I think they'll genuinely look to sign a good SP. Whichever quality SP they sign we can be pretty sure based on past offseasons that they'll sign the guy whose contract offers the best bang for the buck out of the crop of pitchers they're looking at. That's also similar to what they seemed to do with Swanson vs the other top FA SS. Hoyer has done a great job with virtually all the SP contracts he's ever signed. We all always want a TORP every offseason, he signs a guy like Boyd or Imanaga for far cheaper/shorter, and it usually works out very well. With all the good SP on the market this winter he's in a good position to land someone quality on a solid contract.

The Cubs will have interest in every single quality SP this winter, This happens every winter, we hear about their interest in Bregman, Ohtani etc. It means nothing until they announce a deal is made. The Cubs don't get points for losing bids.

Shout-out to Colonel Sanders sitting the front rows of Game 2.

What the owners or players want is irrelevant, only thing that matters is what leverage either has vs the other and what terms they're able to acquire with it. Agree with Bertz, negotiation 101 is you start your demands with the best imaginable scenario for yourself and work your way down from there. I do think the vast majority of teams want to stop what the Dodgers have been able to do. I could see a higher tax penalty on the higher payroll tiers, so not a cap but something creeping a bit more that way.

It might be a weird offseason with the contracts due to the possible lockout like you say. Hoyer has seemingly been especially planning for it with all these deals ending next year.

Agreed. Grab a solid vet or 2 for the 7th/8th innings to stabilize things a bit but otherwise go with cheap finds. We saw what happened with Yates and Scott on the Dodgers this year. Pens are too volitile to spend a lot of money on, and lots of guys improve any given winter and you don't really know who will pop off. Cubs method works with their budget. They'll allocate that money to another position anyways.

Fine suggestion. I wonder if the Cubs still want a guy who can hit LHB like Castro for the INF backup role since our starting SS/2B/3B are all RHB? Or do they just want more RHB on the bench in general, including who could sometimes DH vs LHP? Problem is most of our guys don't get pinch-hit for because of their fielding value so the whole righty-lefty thing isn't an issue other than possibly Shaw, but even he has a lot of glove value. Would love to have a quality INF bench guy to keep guys fresh through the summer months. I'd probably target a RHB because of the likely DH platoon. Even if they acquire a bench OF RHB the INF RHB bat can be serve as a backup.

If any of the rookie bench candidates needs regular PA's in Iowa instead of rotting on the bench it's probably Alcantara. There's virtually no playing time in the OF unless there's injury or Seiya is DH. If they spend any money on a FA OF bench guy it's probably more geared to someone who can DH as RHB (or push Seiya to DH). Cubs had some struggles vs LHP so I'd be ok getting FA RHB at both bench 1B and bench OF/DH who can smash LHP. Or vs LHP Alcantara could start in RF and Seiya at DH, while vs RHP it's Seiya + Caissie or Ballesteros (can't see both as LHB being rostered with a 4-man bench). You're right in that it's unlikely Jed makes bets on 2 rookies in Long/Alcantara to be able to smash LHP, it's too risky, especially with so many young players already in the starting lineup.

I like Shaw, he had major hoops to jump through his rookie year with the major stance/swing changes they made with him (with likely more to come). Much bigger changes than PCA and Amaya made in 2024. IMO it was a bit unfair they had Shaw adjust to those major changes at the MLB level as a rookie. I think he did fine, especially considering the short Spring Training he had and early season start in Japan. Struggling against those beast pitchers the Cubs saw in the playoffs isn't surprising or alarming. He was a really good hitter in college and the minors and showed extended flashes in 2025 so i think he's a work-in-progress but medium and longterm will be a good player and has the fielding floor to be worth the early struggles.

Yeah, they have to replace almost the entire bullpen and every late-inning arm minus Palencia. Jed will be busy.

Other thing is if Long stunk as the bench RHB there's no backup. They'd probably sign some Patrick Wisdom/Schwindel type and keep them in AAA, which isn't terrible but as good as signing a guy like Goldschmidt and at least Long is the backup for him.

I think it will be the 1st list. Alcantara can play any OF position and vs LHP he can possibly hit as a RHB for Ballesteros/Caissie at DH or RF. Long could be that platoon RHB at DH but he lacks positional versatility, and he's also hit RHP better than LHP in the minors the last 2 seasons (that may change). Cubs seem to like at least 1 veteran on the bench which may negate Long's chances as the 1B RHB, and it's difficult for rookies to succeed at hitting while being the short end of a platoon with limited PA's. The veteran INF backup will hopefully be able to hit LHB like Castro since Shaw/Nico/Dansby are all RHB. I'd be fine bringing back Castro but he likely wants more PA's wherever he signs.

Agree with this, except I think they keep both Alcantara and Caissie, especially for 2027. In 2026 Alcantara is our PCA backup in CF in case of injury and Caissie if our corner OF injury backup plus a DH candidate in 2026 if Ballesteros gets hurt or he struggles. I think the Cubs meet their SP needs this winter in FA, there's no reason not to. Like you said, someone like Woodruff, King, Bieber etc. We know from last winter they don't want to sign a TOR to a big longterm contract if they can avoid it. They'll likely target all the good FA SP's and sign the one that comes in on the most sensible contract like they usually do. Hopefully our rotation peaks later in the season than they did this year.

Unless they're under .500 at the end of July it's hard for me to see anyone being sold off between now and next offseason, plus the NTC's being an issue. Nobody besides Nico is good enough to bring in a haul significantly bigger than a comp pick to be worth trading unless they're out of it. I think it's pretty likely that Happ, Seiya, and Nico aren't on the team in 2027. Nico might be the best bet to re-sign since he's harder to replace. We'll miss Happ in spirit but in terms of age the timing is right to let him go after 2026. In 2027 I could see Caissie in RF and maybe a new FA in LF. It's not worth worrying about 2027 right now IMO, especially with the CBA/lockout being unknown factors. Cubs need to focus on pitching. 1 good SP and rebuilding the pen. We're in a good position with a lot of good SP on the market this winter.

Yes. But given the revenue-to-payroll ratio of the Cubs compared to most other teams, the Cubs seem more geared toward profit than other MLB teams. Or maybe they're just going about it a different way, possibly because we have a unique fanbase and unique ballpark that gives the Cubs a higher floor in terms of attendance, rating, merch etc. Other teams may need to spend more to put a good team on the field in order to attract desirable attendance, ratings etc. I don't like my loyalty taken advantage of. I think this is a terrible way to run a business. It's probably good in the short-term but in the long-term the loyalty of fans will falter. It's just soulless greed in a business where you're selling hope and good feelings as a service. You can't run a baseball team like a shoe company because it's about people and social connections and other emotions, not just coldly consuming a product. The goal is to make your customers feel good by winning, creating a positive ballpark atmosphere, connecting to players and tv announcers etc. Turning historic Wrigley into an amusement park/casino like other teams do and slapping ads on the uniforms while putting half-effort into payroll doesn't make me feel good, it makes me sad and frustrated.

The primary goal of this organization is to make as much profit as possible. Winning a WS or making the playoffs only matters to them in the context of making profits and the cost/benefits of spending payroll to try to go so. They reduced payroll last offseason. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again. I don't see any correlation between revenue and payroll with this team. If Wrigley filled its seats just the same with a 140m payroll and a 4th place team then I'd assume they'd run a 140m payroll. I'm expecting a signing like King or Bieber at SP and the usual mix of veterans and bargain bin signings in the pen. This FO rarely buys high on FAs. Most fans are emotional and illogical and have problems delaying gratification so typically want to buy high regardless of the longterm consequences. They'd be terrible playing the stock market. Maximizing return on investment is what matters to this FO and ownership, besides last offseason when Jed's job was on the line which i assume was a factor with the Tucker trade, which necessitated short-term over longterm gains. The fundamental cause of the conflict between Cubs ownership and fans is that their goals are different. Fans don't care about profits and ownership doesn't care about winning outside of a means of generating more profit.

Credit to the Toronto ownership and FO. They ponied up to keep Vladdy, brought in Hoffman, acquired Bieber at the deadline. Jays have 280m tax payroll and have to pay the US exchange rate on top of that. Dodgers also have to pay 160m in luxury tax payments this year. Dodger's total tax payroll plus tax hit is 580 million! Ricketts are not serious owners and probably cost us a trip to the NLCS.

Peralta will only make 8m next year so he could bring the Brewers a nice package.

Good catch on the arm angle. Could be a combo of both, who knows. Cubs have been excellent at evaluating pitching talent so I trust the Cubs to figure out if it's fixable and if they should bring back Shota.

Since he's from Japan I have some doubts that Shota has ever been through a velo program. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in throwing 93 in spring training wherever he's playing. It's also pretty hard for him to do any worse with his fly ball rate than he did this year, there's room for improvement there.

Finding a good corner OF is the easiest of any position, thankfully. Not worried about it. I think they should see what they have in Caissie. Maybe Alcantara can breakout but I have serious doubts hitting-wise. I think Caissie has a good chance he can replace one of Happ/Seiya just fine, so then we can find another corner OF in free agency to replace the other. We also have Ethan Conrad but who knows how that goes.

Yeah and most of them probably don't give to 2 effs about the Cubs winning or losing and just want as much money as possible, which is exactly how they seem to run the team.

He'll be 32 the first season if we extend/resign him, and he'll probably want 4 years or so. Let him walk. We got his prime seasons, great signing by Jed. Jed's been very good on his spending on his larger contracts. Extending Happ and Nico, signing Imanaga, Dansby, Seiya. Taillon's been solid. Bellinger and Stroman were good contracts. This is why it sucks to trade a guy like Cam Smith. You don't know if he's going to turn into a good player or not, but you know he's not going to age like milk on your watch while earning a gazillion dollars. I'll take Shaw over Bregman too. You take Bregman on his contract last year, but he's probably going to want something more longterm now. He's also been playing in Houston and Boston, notoriously good parks for RHB so I assume his stats are inflated a bit.

Shouldn't they just be focused on preventing runs and acquiring the best pitchers possible? Doesn't really matter if it's via adding K's or groundballs, or reducing walks or HR etc

2025 the Cubs SP were 8th in ERA but 14th in xERA, 23rd in xFIP, and 17th in WAR. There's no doubt the winds of Wrigley and the Cubs elite defense has made Cubs pitchers overperform. The pen as well by that logic. The rotation was likely average to below-average. Steele is an unknown, Taillon/Imanaga/Boyd/Rea will be a year older with more possible velo drops, but a full year from a more experienced Horton. Agree they could use a good SP.