Stratos

I like Boog

Swanson is a very similar contract as Heyward's, and in fact we could argue more risky given Heyward was far younger. They also have a similar profile as elite glove, so-so offense players. So I think the FO philosophy is based on data, rather than Heyward regrets. If your team has a payroll under the tax limit then being eager to sign some 29 y/o player to a 10/300 contract is absolutely illogical, and unless you're spending Dodgers or Padres money on payroll I think any team doing it is really stupid and evidence-illiterate. Last season I believe something like only 3 out of the top 40 position players in WAR were over age 32. You'd have to be insane to assume you're going to be the team to beat those odds when signing a star to a mega contract through his 30's. The Cubs aren't exactly the Rays, they spend a lot more. The Rays are a very good team and I wish the Cubs had won as many games as they have the last several years. They make teams like the Mets and Padres look like fools. Now imagine having a philosophy of value like the Rays but also having a payroll of $230m. My assumption is that any team like that is going to be better than the Rays because of that significantly extra payroll. I'd rather be the Dodgers but we don't have their revenues or spendy owners so if our payroll is going to sit around the LT then I think the philosophy of this FO is very likely to be effective.

I don't think they should have an offseason deadline because what would happen is many of the signings would simply happen right before the deadline, just like the trade deadline. However, I find it ridiculous and condescending for the author of the article to suggest that the reason we find this offseason slow and boring is that we've been "programmed" for low attention spans. Yes many have low attention spans, but it's very clear this offseason is been one of the slowest in memory and still isn't finished by a longshot, and got a late start, and that isn't good for the sport. I care infinitely more about what's in the best interests of fans than about the interests or salary gains or losses among players vs owners. I would have no issue whatsoever if players or owners lost hundreds of thousands of dollars every year over some decision that would make the sport better for fans, and I think it's silly that fans back the players when it's against their own interests. Like the fans who cared more about the players getting a better collective agreement during the lockout than the fact that the lockout was denying them the sport they like to watch as consumers. Anyways, this offseason ridiculousness is the fault of Boras and Boras alone. He has obviously created unreasonable demands for his players far above their market value. Every other significant FA has signed and they didn't get ripped off. I don't at all blame teams for being less eager to sign ridiculous FA contracts like Boras has convinced them to do in the past and teams rather putting that money into extending the young stars on their teams that have been severely underpaid forever with virtually no guaranteed contracts until now if they get hurt or flame out a few years down the line.

Looks like the Blue Jays are out on any big signings left. Good news especially for Chapman/Bellinger. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/atkins-jays-would-need-to-subtract-to-accommodate-significant-acquisition.html

There's 12 playoff teams, so 14th sounds about right lol

I'm probably good with them signing whomever of the 4, though Bellinger probably fills the most needs for 2024. We really need more LHB. Someone on the team can always be traded in the next offseason or 2 if we want to make room for someone on the farm so i'm not worried about blocking guys, it's a better problem than lack of talent somewhere. We're mostly just looking to fill a gap for 1-2 seasons no matter the position.

Kimbrel waited a long time and did well. Did he even lose any money the partial year he signed? Maybe we'll still be here in July. Once the ST games start that's the team in my head, I can't do this much longer.

Baseball teams sell hope. That's really their business. Fans need to believe, or they won't show up. If Ricketts doesn't give us a good team to root for it's just no as fun. 83 wins isn't good enough.

Oh I think I can answer that question.

Brewers won on a low payroll. Cubs want that

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/scott-effross-out-several-months-due-to-back-surgery.html

Closer warming up? They're down a few runs and need a hell of a 9th to get the walk off.

Did you watch the games in Sept last year? PCA looked way over his head in almost every single aspect of the game in his short stint. Baserunning decisions were terrible, some of this fielding decisions were over anxious leading to misplays, and obviously his hitting was horrible. Tauchman isn't going to make any of those mental mistakes. Some of it is just nerves, but PCA is 21, he needs more time in the oven against the older more experienced players in AAA. I'm sure the Cubs are aware of all of this. If he starts the year on the MLB roster it's because someone got hurt.

I think we should have an open door policy on any post-skin bleaching Sosa photos.

Cubs had a well above average offense during every month of 2023 besides May (ranked 25th in runs, peak Hosmer/Mervis/Mancini/Barnhart/Madrigal suckfest plus Bellinger hurt) and June (was just average). Even in Sept/Oct they were 4th in runs scored. Cubs had the 3rd best offense in MLB in the 2nd half (from July 1). They were tied for 1st in the MLB over all of 2023 in baserunning runs, which was a big part of their game and doesn't show up in stats like wRC+. Hopefully they run as well under Counsell as Ross. Mike Napoli and Willie Harris are back so that should help the transition a lot.

Agree and hope you're right. We know they have at least around 25m to spend under the LT and would probably like to spend it before OD. I doubt the Cubs would pin themselves into a corner with Boras. Totally possible there's options on the table if the Boras guys don't work out. We don't really know long the Cubs are willing to wait out Boras though.

Recent Hawkins interview says they're basically working the phones daily and watching the waiver wire etc looking to be opportunistic if a good deal pops up. I'd imagine any player they'd deem available and worthy to be on our roster (which is a lot of players) they're trying to check in about. I doubt they're targeting any specific pitchers right now even if they're linked to checking in on them.

Nice links. There's got to be some kind of formula model that teams use to try to get a ballpark prediction of minors to MLB conversion.

Interesting is that a lot of the best prospects and young players are getting extended at early ages now so getting stars in their prime in FA is eventually going to be much harder. This will change the way many teams will build teams. Good prospects probably become even more valuable.

Haven't thought of the name Felix Pie in a long time. Some serious red flags on the offensive side for PCA. But I guess we'll see.

Wonder what the plan B would be to spend the rest of that money this year if they can't get any of the Boras 4. Some other bat I'd imagine, maybe a reliever upgrade. Could swing a trade. Tauchman, Canario, Morel, and PCA are the options in CF.

He did it with Counsell.

Red Sox are still bouncing around too.

They had problems underperforming offensively throughout last season and have lost Chapman to FA. The offense is almost the same as of now besides the Chapnan/Turner swap.

I think they probably have their preference for best fits but are likely trying to remain as flexible as they always do. They're a very opportunistic FO and will probably take the deal here that makes the team better compared to the contract cost. Not overspending on one of these guys means they can use that savings to afford an upgrade at another position, like on a pen arm or another bat upgrade etc. and do this every year of the contract. They shouldn't feel pigeonholed. If they sign one of the Boras SP they can always trade someone like Taillon at a later time if they want to make room for one of the young SPs, or trade one of those young SPs like one of Wicks/Brown/Assad etc in a package for an upgrade elsewhere. If they don't sign one of the Boras 4 they could spend that money on a reliever and/or another bat or swing a trade.