Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Where do you find ZIP projections? They don't seem to up on Fangraphs besides the team articles they've done. I'm not going to argue Chapman isn't the better player, but he's also 31 and will come at a over twice the AAV cost and probably at least 4x the length of contract at a position where we have several other current options including a few good prospects that may be ready by next year. Chapman is the best option for 2024 but we aren't signing him for 1 year. If the Cubs are willing to go over the LT then we can legitimate the signing, but if not then it gets harder.
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Suzuki was 27. I'm ok doing this with Bellinger in CF, he's 28. Happ was 29 when he extended. If Chapman would sign without a NTC or the Cubs are willing to go beyond the first CBT line then sure. I think they should just go get Brandon Drury or something.
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Chapman will be 31 in a few months. IMO it's a hard sell for us as a team with options now and some good prospects to try next year. Can't see them signing him unless the market falls out for him and Jed falls into a good deal.
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I'll add that the Cubs did surprisingly fine at 3B last year. 2.7 WAR at the position overall, which was good for 11th in the MLB if I remember correct. Definitely above average. Some of that was Madrigal hitting so well when he came back up that likely won't continue. But they do have some options at the position. None of Madrigal, Wisdom, Morel etc are the ideal 3B but none of them by themselves are terrible and Counsell can use matchups.
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Ok i'm wrong LOL.
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Bellinger definitely changes things at 1B if signed, we could go with a DH bat then. I really have no idea how much they want Bellinger, he's a somewhat risky and likely longterm contract for a 1-2 year solution. The fact that the Cubs have moved as slow as Boras has is indication they likely want him though. We don't have any idea what they're going to do with the rest of the hitters, nobody predicted Busch either. Looks like 1 or 2 more bats and some pen help that's all we know.
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Mancini wasn't old, but Hosmer was so I guess he counts. But also cost league minimum.
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They shouldn't sign a 3B for 4 years to block very good prospects either. They'll probably sign an established corner INF bat who can at least play 1B. We'd have them, Busch, Mervis, Wisdom, and Morel to play 1B. Plus some guys in AAA like Murray, McGeary as backup. I'm not that worried about 3B or 1B. Worst case Morel is below average defensively at 3B but hits pretty well and puts up around 2.0 or 2.5 WAR or something and we're just average at 3B and 1B while being above average at most other positions. Not the end of the world. Our pen is pretty bad right now i'm more worried about that and CF/Bellinger.
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Nice to get someone talented but I just can't see Jed signing Hader. Maybe there's a trade somewhere.
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Besides catchers like Gomes and Barnhart who have value from experience in handling a staff I can't even think of an older hitter Theo or Jed signed.
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Well Belt and Martinez were much better hitters than Turner so they weren't just 1 war guys, so you could legitimize them at full time DH more. We really don't know what they'll do at 3b and DH. Will be interesting to see who else they pick up. I think they could live with who they have now at 3B. Busch might be the other 3B and they grab a 1b/DH type. But would be nice if they had yet another 3b/1b option.
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Turner was solid with the bat but also a DH so 1.2 WAR over a full season I believe, which was near what Manini had when signed. They may prefer a hitter who can also play the field adequately.
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Yes that's true, but we still don't know if or by how much they're going to fall off due to age regression. Jed seems to prefer to sign guys, even on 1 yr or minor league deals, who are at their peak age years of 26-30. With someone like Hoskins you get upside, with Turner and Martinez etc you get downside. They're still an option, Belt is too and he'll be 36, you can get a discount for the downside risk for older players and can sign them for 1 yr, and yeah it's not like signing Abreu for 3 years, but i'm just saying it's not something Hoyer has done in the past. My main hope is he doesn't sign any fringe position players for millions like the last 2 years. I think Turner probably qualifies for that, but Martinez or Belt probably don't.
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Jed seems to avoid older players like Turner. I agree with the strategy because you're paying for past production and the odds say they're more likely to decline in performance than have upside. If the price is right he'd sign him but another team probably offers more. Cubs have many more assets in the minors and some are going to need to move, so we could see a trade, or another FA signing. Hoskins or whomever. If it were me I'd scout and figure out who is more likely to be a better 3B vs 1B between Morel vs Busch. if it's Morel then in ST you play him mostly at 3B and give him some time at 1B, and with Busch you do the opposite but primarily at 1B. If Morel can't handle 3B then swap him with Busch at 1B. Madrigal is a backup option if all fails and who can start at 3B if the Cubs have a contact SP like Hendricks or groundball pitcher like Steele on the mound, or in situations like you mention like the wind howling in.
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Mancini/Hosmer/Barnhart/Mervis were terrible and once they were replaced by Morel, Tauchman, Amaya, and Bellinger at 1B the offense took off and had a really good 2nd half. If they avoid those kinds of blackholes again, especially at offensive positions like 1B and DH, I think they'll have a good offense again. They have more depth this year all over the diamond so hopefully that's not going to be the issue it was. At every position except DH and 2b the average MLB teams gets between 2.0 to 2.3 WAR over 162 games. If the rest of the offseason is productive for Jed we have a good shot to be above average at every position besides possibly catcher, but that should improve at least without Barnhart. I'd be fine with just average at 1B given Busch/Mervis being basically rookies and Wisdom or someone else there against LHP when needed. The weakness as of now is again the pitching. The SP can be at least adequate and has depth, we'll need the pen to be a strength and lock down leads + keep trailing scores close for the hitters.
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Examples?
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I haven't heard this
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Cubs rotation isn't a strength but I don't see them filling up 4 of 5 rotation spots with longterm SP when there's several good young SP. Unless they want to go to a 6 man rotation. Trade for short term SP makes more sense
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Article: What Did Jed Hoyer Mean By That?
Stratos replied to Josh Illes's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
I'd like a solid lefty and righty in the pen that can handle late inning work, another corner INF LHB, a run at Bellinger (they can load it with opt outs), and invite some relievers to ST on minor league deals. I don't expect much else. -
In Jed and Carter's Q&A at CubsCon Jed mentioned that a lot of FA and trade rumors are nonsense and some players the Cubs have been connected to they haven't even contacted their agent about, and says it's likely agents just name-dropping the Cubs for leverage because they're a large market team.
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They also mentioned DH as possible for Morel. Yeah they don't know, and that's fine.
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After what happened last season with this group of arms, if they only add 1 more arm plus Almonte, who sucks, then that's a huge fail. Just like how Cuas wasn't enough.
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I remember after the deadline hoyer saying the trade cost of relievers in that market was too high for them, so it may not have been a LT thing. Who knows.
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Best case scenario for both Cubs and Bellinger might be him having 2 or 3 really good seasons and then opting out.
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I dunno, a lot of teams are probably down on his metrics from last year. Lance Brozdowski thinks he may get south of 24-25m AAV because of it. He does a great breakdown on if what he did in 2023 is repeatable including what he did with 2 strikes: