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Rcal10

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Everything posted by Rcal10

  1. Rcal10
    I didn’t make up Castro’s batting average. I am sure the Cubs coaches have a pretty good idea of who is fielding the ball and who is making the relay. If they. Relieve the chance of a guy scoring is better than the chance the guy gets a hit while coming up next, the send makes sense. Period. Unfortunately even if the odds of a guy scoring is only 35-40% that means he is more likely out at the plate. And we get people complaining. But what is the other option? Let the next guy bat and have him make an out, like even good hitters do 70% of the time? It’s just math staffs should know the math. And they definitely know it more than you and I do.
  2. Rcal10
    Bad results from a good process doesn’t make it a wrong decision either. What is Castro batting average? 250? So maybe add a little more to factor in other ways the runner can score with Castro up. So maybe 30% chance. So if the 3rd base coach thinks the odds of scoring on that play are greater than 30% he send the runner. Unfortunately what happens is 50-60% of the time the guy gets thrown thrown out and the complains come. 40% chance of scoring is better than a 30% chance of scoring, therefore the process of sending a guy is correct.
  3. Rcal10
    Yep, fastest snail. Well said. Nothing to brag about, for sure.
  4. Rcal10
    I second this
  5. Rcal10
    You mean they shouldn’t have sent Kelly because he is slow. Interesting. Friday the guy who scored on the shallow sac fly was Kelly. He is slow. If you have a better chance to score the run then the next runner does to get a hit the right play is to send. Unfortunately that means a guy gets thrown out 50-60% of the time and we have these discussions.
  6. Rcal10
    Crazy talk. Fact is, like it or not, Ricketts is the best owner in Chicago. This is not saying much. I honestly hope the white Sox get an ownership that spends. Put some pressure on the Cubs to be good. Honestly all the owners in Chicago suck. TR just sucks the least. Not a high bar.
  7. Rcal10
    How did you feel about the send in game one? Shallow fly to right.
  8. Rcal10
    Exactly. No one said anything about the send on the shallow sac fly in game one. Why? Because a bad throw allowed the Cubs to score. This time a perfect relay cut Kelly down. If he had a 35% chance to score it was right to send him.
  9. Rcal10
    I mean they will go to an uncomfortable level and one that industry wide would be considered competetive. Not “cubs” competetive. 10+ years and high end annual. Hard to say amounts because deferrals come into play. Opt outs, NTC, signing bonus, etc. but IMO there bid will be comparable to others. Now if someone comes in at 12/$600 without deferred money, he is done. I don’t think that will happen. But I just don’t think they traded for him with the thought we can get him cheap and how we always do things. I think they knew this would be different and accept the idea they will have to operate differently.
  10. Rcal10
    I think this is a fair posts. I do understand apprehension about the Cubs really going all in on someone. But as others have said before, most teams never have, until they do. I just think Tucker is different than other FA that got mega deals. I think he is a guy they want. That is why they traded for him. Now he he here. IMO that makes it different. Also, as you pointed out, there may not be that much competition. If Tucker likes his time here they also helps. Yes, money has to be there. Cubs can’t offer $ years when others are offering 10+. But I don’t think the Cubs would have traded for him if they were not at least going to commit to a mega offer. My biggest disagreement with several posters is I just don’t see it as a foregone conclusion they aren’t even going to be competitive for him. I think they will be. But even so, 30% still has me bringing more likely than not he won’t we here next year. But I think they will try. I can see a 10+ year offer with about $40M annual. I think they will play in that level.
  11. Rcal10
    Swanson batting 9th. Maybe CC does read our threads.
  12. Rcal10
    Wish I could argue this, but I can’t. The trick is to show ownership that winning brings the most profit. Kind of the theory you have to spend money to make money. Don’t really think the Cubs ownership is that different than most when they put profit ahead of winning. I think 80% or more owners do that as well.
  13. Rcal10
    Wait squally. They are 15-11 in their last 26 games of this horrendous slump they are in. This time when they are only playing to a 93 win pace? Reading this thread I would have thought they were losing WAY more games then they have won recently. So they have 52 to go. If they continue this pace the rest of the year they end up with 94 wins and we have people suggesting if they even make the playoffs they will be the last team in? Wow, that is some serious overreaction. Brewers are now 22 games over .500. They are very good. Might win 95+. If they do they deserve the division. But that doesn’t mean the Cubs suck. In fact, if the Cubs go 3-2 at Wrigley and gain one more game in the other 47 games each team plays, both teams win 94 games and the Cubs win the division. Brewers would have to go 28-24 to get to 94 wins. That is an 87-88 win pace team from here on out. Still a quality team. Probably a pace at the beginning of the year none of us thought them capable of doing. And good. It is not them falling flat. It is them coming back to reality and their talent level. Now none of this might not happen. Brewers might go on and win 110 games. Cubs might lose 30 of their next 52. But there is definitely a very reasonable scenario where the Cubs absolutely make the playoffs and even one where they have a real chance at the division without something crazy having to happen.
  14. Rcal10
    And we have a chance to catch them too. Cubs haven’t played well for a while now. Just hovering around .500 for 30-40 games. Brewers have been ridiculous. Has anyone here ever watched a complete baseball season? If so, has anyone seen a team play like the Brewers have for 100+ games? Especially one that is not crazy talented. This is not knocking the Brewers. They are good. But they are not 115 win good. They will cool down. Maybe even go into what the Cubs are experiencing and not really slump, but not play great for the next 50 games. Tread water, like the Cubs haven’t played well for a bit. Cubs need to start playing well. I think they will. Play .600 ball from here on out, win 94 games and let’s see how that stacks up. I would say it wins the division. But if not, they are in the playoffs and we have to tip our cap to the Brewers. But nothing is decided on August 2nd.
  15. Rcal10
    Probably our worst loss of the year. Got to win tomorrow. It’s baseball. Sometimes weird horsefeathers happens.
  16. Rcal10
    Ok, let’s toss insults and jokes aside. How is this realistically looking at the roster to not sign Tucker AND trade Happ? Happ has a NTC as well. All jokes and insults aside, I don’t see this as a very realistic scenerio.
  17. Rcal10
    Dude, I made a joke about you not being positive too often. Hardly something that should have had the response I got. Settle down.
  18. Rcal10
    👍 classy. Pretty sure that is not acceptable language.
  19. Rcal10
    I agree with this. I am more bullish than most that Tucker will be resigned, but even being bullish I have it at 30%. I at least do not see it as a foregone conclusion he won’t be here. Then, if he is signed I can see them looking into moving Happ. But even then, he has to waive a NTC and I don’t feel the Cubs will give him away. The idea of just plugging in one of the bats in the minors to replace Happ and that guy being as good as Happ from the start is just not realistic to me. As we have seen the past few years, rookies(even highly rated ones, struggle..
  20. Rcal10
    Shocking that you take the negative POV. You are always so positive.
  21. Rcal10
    Game 4 against the Giants was the greatest comeback game ever to watch. We were nearing the end of a long remodel in my house, so basically trapped in the smallest room in the house watching the game. No clock in the room and a small couch and a tv. Shocked when the game ended and it was after midnight. But worth it. Maddon outmaneuvered Boche big time in that one. And that game was the very reason the Cubs had to get Chapman instead of letting him go to the Giants. If he is a Giant, we don’t win that one. And who knows what happens facing Cueto in game 5.
  22. Rcal10
    If you have mlb I believe you can watch the condensed game and pick your broadcast. But I am not sure.🤷 Can you imagine the Cubs thread if the Cubs lost a game like that? Jed would have been crucified for trading for overrated pen arms.
  23. Rcal10
    I think it will be Happ.
  24. Rcal10
    True.
  25. Rcal10
    And then when that happens people won’t want to trade him. This is a yearly Happ discussion. For as long as he has been a Cub this happens.
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