Rcal10
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Everything posted by Rcal10
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Fingers crossed.
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I, for 1, am not suggesting he is traded because he started slow. I have suggested it only in the event they got Bellinger. And only for high quality back. His slow start is not remotely a consideration.
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I would be fine with signing Bellinger and Hoskins to start the process of making the 24’ Cubs a playoff team. I am not as concerned as some about signing Bellinger for up to 7 years and Hoskins to a 1 year deal. From there I would like to see a few smaller size trades. One for Bieber and another for Polanco. Let Polanco and Morel figure out who is better at 3rd and the other is then the DH. Since Bieber, Polanco and Hoskins are on one year deals plus all the other money coming off the books after the 24 season, I would like to see them go over the LT threshold next year. Maybe sign a Giolitto and a decent pen arm. The following year guys like PCA, Horton, maybe Shaw, Cassie, Brown will be ready to fill in for guys lost. And they can be back under the LT threshold again. Trading for Bieber and Polanco won’t hit your minor league system that hard. Might even get those guys for guys like Wesneski, Assad, Wisdom, Mervis,Madrigal plus a lower end prospect. I don’t think they would have to lose a top 10 system prospect. IMO that is a 90+ win team. You have a solid line up, a decent staff with depth and you still have a lot of your minor league talent if you have to make moves at the deadline. There really is no good reason they can’t do this. But I just don’t think they will, unfortunately.
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I don’t think he will get $200M. And I agree with you that if someone had that out there now he would have signed already. But we have to remember that he is a Boros client. So this delay isn’t unusual. I still think he ends up getting at least a 6 year deal and at least at $25M a year. Big difference between 6/$150 and 8/$210 or so. So it isn’t surprising he is still out there. But I think a team will find middle ground.
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If that $200M is for 8 years he doesn’t need to produce a 5WAR to be worth that annual salary. More like a 3WAR, which he can do. Besides that, just because he wants $200M doesn’t mean he gets that. I can see something like 7/$182 being a good middle ground between what the Cubs probably hope they could get him at (6/$150) and what Boros would realistically want (8/$216).
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Article: The Cubs and the Vice of Patience
Rcal10 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
If they got Chapman and did trade for Naylor they wouldn’t have to also sign Hoskins. Morel can just DH. Then maybe they can spend on a decent, MOR pitcher instead of paying Hoskins. (Stroman? Giolito?) -
Yes, they can’t keep letting options go and then say “oh well” we will pivot to another option. That is why this idea of seeing who falls to them sucks for a team with their revenues. Sometimes you have to have a concrete plan and make it happen.
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Unless Morel can play 3rd (and most feel he can’t) I don’t really like the fit of Bellinger with PCA. If/when PCA came in the team one of the outfielders would have to DH daily or Bellinger would have to move to first. I don’t like that either. I want either Hoskins or a trade for Naylor to occupy 1st. I totally understand your logic. And I agree it doesn’t appear the Cubs would deal PCA. But if they are not, I would rather them just pass on Bellinger. (Unless Morel is the 3rd baseman).
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Honestly I am more unhappy about the idea of Bieber being traded to the Dodger. I kind of liked the Bieber/Naylor idea for the Cubs. As you said, Clase is more a luxury for a sure playoff team.
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Fine, people can worry about whatever they want to worry about. I am not nearly as concerned about him playing centerfield at 33 or 34 than I am him actually continuing to be a productive hitter the next 5 to 7 years. If anything, the fact that he can, if he has to, move to first at 33 makes his signing less risky IMO. I am more concerned with “will he hit,” To me it comes down to what is the better option? Sign Bellinger for 7 years and trade PCA+ for Luzardo or stick with PCA in center and use the money you would spend on Bellinger to sign Montgomery for 6 years. Which is the better team in 24’ and which is the better team years after 24? Whichever way they go, they still need more. Someone like Hoskins and/or Chapman as a free agent and/or guys like Bieber and Naylor in a trade.
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.Sure, that’s possible. But doesn’t risk come with every long term contract? If you don’t take a few iffy years you don’t get the top guys. As I said, if you don’t think Bellinger is worth it bexsuee of questioning his bat, that is a different story. That I do understand. But I am less worried about him playing center.
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I understand being unsure of Bellinger. But why can’t he play center field until he is 35? Didn’t Nimmo sign an 8 year deal at 30? Where is he going to play? Again, concerns about his bat, I do understand. But I don’t know why he can’t stay in center once he hits early to mid 30’s.
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I did Blake Dewitt for Dodgers. I thought you did Bellhorn for Yankees. Fanzone was .08. Castro was 2%, I think.
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I went Castro. Not the obvious box. For that one I used Carmen Fanzone. Only us guys of a certain age remember him.
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Article: The Cubs and the Vice of Patience
Rcal10 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
Hoskins is not Mancini. Not even close. He is a career OPS+ of 126. That is very good. Only question on Hoskins is health. If he is healthy he will produce. -
Add a trade of PCA+ for Luzardo and a FA pen arm and that is not a bad off season. Maybe even enough money to get Giolito on a 2 or 3 year deal. 3rd and DH filled by what they have already (Morel and ?) Another trade option is PCA+ for Clase, Bieber, Naylor. But for that to work the Cubs need to know Morel can play 3rd. And I don’t think they know that.
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I do like Naylor though. They can use a lefty bat. If they don’t trade for one, who do they get? Bellinger? And that being along a whole new list of things they may need to do. I think they can still sign Hoskins and wait a bit on Naylor. Might end up a March deal. They might want to see for themselves if Morel can play 3rd. If he can they can trade for Naylor and let him and Hoskins fill 1b and DH. If they already know he can’t maybe he goes in a trade that gets Naylor and they either sign Chapman, stay within what they have or make another trade for a 3rd baseman.. If the decision on him has already been made that he can’t do it, they can move quicker. There is a lot of ways they can go and suddenly time is getting shorter. There is time still, but they have a lot of avenues to explore.
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I just think if you are taking Moncada and his contract, with Cease there is no reason to have to put Morel in the deal. I also do not think Moncada is any good, TBH. I see him as average, at best, offensively. And definitely not worth his contract. I also am not as high in Cease as some are. I think that had he not been traded from the Cubs to the Sox people wouldn’t be as interested in getting him back. Sure, he throws hard. Cubs don’t really have that sort of guy. But he walks a lot of guys and usually it around his pitch limit in the 6th inning. He is good, but not worth what some are suggesting IMO. I mean if you look at pure numbers he isn’t even better than Bieber, and we are talking about getting him for Wesneski. So why pay so much for Cease for one additional year. Look at his WHIP last year. That was not good. Even his career number isn’t good. I am not interested in overpaying for him just to right a perceived wrong(by the Cubs fan base).
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Are you saying PCA AND Morel and than something else? Or PCA or Morel? If it is the former IMO you are overvaluing Cease by a wide margin. I wouldn’t trade PCA for Cease. The guy is a 5 or 6 inning pitcher who throws 100 pitches in those innings. Maybe instead of Triantos or Wesneski I would give Wicks. So Alcantara, Wicks and either Triantos or Wesneski. If that isn’t good enough I don’t want Cease.
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In the 7 years Moncada has been in the league he has had one really good year. He had one other year that he would probably be worth his contract. But 4 years where his offense was under league average and another he was 3% above league average. He is nothing special. His production doesn’t merit his pay so he is a negative value. I think the Sox wouldn’t mind shedding his salary. I certainly wouldn’t give anything of any value to the Sox for him in a straight deal to get Moncada.
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Taking Moncada back isn’t adding offense. It is adding a negative value player and a contract he isn’t worth. I would give up Alcantara instead of Morel with the guys you mentioned and it would still be an overpay. But one I would do, and probably what would be needed because I do agree with you that in order to deal minor league talent for major league talent they will have to overpay to be the best deal. Obviously we know none of this will happen. Just nice to have a baseball chat once in a while. Man, something does need to happen soon!!!!
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They need offense. Don’t want to give up Morel. Wouldn’t give up PCA for Cease either. If the Cubs did sign Bellinger again, I wouldn’t mind seeing PCA for Luzardo or PCA being the main piece in a deal for Gilbert. I don’t think I would touch Horton either, except for Gilbert. They should be able to get Cease without any of those 3. If they have to they can take Moncada to lessen the prospect capital they would need to trade.
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Wish he was the Sox GM.
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Me too, but I think Luzardo would cost more prospect capital.
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