Rcal10

Ok, so you are suggesting that has Bellinger opted out the Cubs could have used that money to shop at the highest end of the pitching market. Fine. That is all you had to say. I don’t think they would have. I think they would have tried replacing his bat. But at least now I understand your point. Just don’t agree, which is fine. I think the plan without Bellinger was one bat, one MOR starter, a pen arm or two, a back up catcher and maybe improve the bench a little. With Bellinger they scrap the idea of the bat. They can still implement the rest of the plan.

Still don’t follow. I asked you what they would do with the money had it not been Bellinger. I assume it would have went for a different higher priced bat. Assuming that was the case, how does Bellinger costing maybe $10M more than the higher priced bat they brought in, scrap the entire plan? Maybe it means they get Morgan instead of Stephenson. Now they are back to the same amount (roughly) to spend on the rest of the roster. I don’t understand how you take this to mean I assumed the $32M spend would only be spent on Bellinger.

Where in anything I said do I suggest the $32M spend on Bellinger was only going to be used on Bellinger. I don’t even know what you are talking about. I have no idea the point you are even trying to same with this comment. This is all part of a discussion we are having because you said Bellinger opting in has caused Jed to scrap his entire off season plan. I disagree with that. And I am trying to see why you suggest that. I already acknowledged that I agree Jed would have rather he opted out. I just don’t see him staying changing much, with the exception of he won’t now sign a FA bat or trade for a FA bat that requires a high salary.

So Bellinger opting out would have cleared out more money and then the Cubs would have went with Cassie in the outfield/DH and not spent that money? Honestly, if that was the plan I am glad he opted in. If you believe, as I do, that had Bellinger opted out the Cubs would have tried replacing him with a similar player in the way of team value, he isn’t costing them $32M they didn’t expect to spend. He is probably costing them $10M, because whoever replaced him would have probably costed that. So instead of spending $10M on a pen arm they make a trade for Morgan. Again, him being here should not blow up the entire off season. Again, I agree Jed would have rather he opted out. But it isn’t nearly as big a deal as you are making it. It isn’t some egregious mistake Jed made. He is overpaying for a solid player. Hardly something to be all that concerned about. I am sure you can find numerous players in every roster in baseball that you can say the same thing about.

I’m asking you because you suggested Bellinger opting in scrapped all of Jed’s plans. Jed didn’t say that, you did. So what do you think his plan was? I think Bellinger is probably being paid about $10M too much for next year. I just don’t see that as a reason to scrap everything. Like I said, if he opted out maybe the Cubs sign Alonso or Hernandez for $22M a year. So they are starting FA with $10M less. That is basically trading for Morgan instead of signing Stephenson. Now they are back on track with Jed’s plan. Except no one knows what that plan is. I just think you are making way too big a deal about Bellinger being here. I don’t think he is bowing out of the top FA because of Bellinger. I think he was never going for the top end of FA, regardless(with the possible exception of signing someone to replace Bellinger- and that wouldn’t have included Soto). I do agree with you that Jed would have rather Bellinger opted out. But I don’t see it scrapping all plans moving forward.

I do expect a pitcher to be spotted in ahead of Taillon. And I also still think they will do that. Not sure if it will be via trade or FA. But tbh, after that I am not sure what they will do. Not expecting much.

What do you think Jed’s plan was without Bellinger? How does him opting in scrap the entire plan? Was the plan to sign a bat? If so, at most, Bellinger opting in cost the Cubs maybe $10M in payroll this year. But takes them off the hook of having to have someone fir 4 years at $22M a year. I would have rather he opted out, but I feel you are making way too much out of Bellinger staying. He isn’t dead weight. He is a solid player.

Never be surprised at the Cubs not signing someone. Yes, he makes sense. But doesn’t mean they sign him.

Probably not going to trade Bellinger. I agree with that. Just suggesting if they did, Castillo would be more appropriate. And now Kikuchi is gone. Went to the Angels. My guess is they stay with Bellinger and sign someone like Flaherty or Eovaldi, if they even go that high for a pitcher.

Yep. And if Bellinger doesn’t exactly fit the Mariners needs they can either trade him to get what they feel they need or trade the guy whose place he takes in the line up to get what they might need. Arozarena would be an example of someone who might be available if the Mariners got Bellinger. Not like Dipito is afraid to shake the team up with trades. As I said, Bohm seems like a target for them and Bellinger makes a lot of sense for Phillies. They are ibviously not the same value. So Mariners can trade Bellinger or Arozarena, plus something else for Bohm. Castillo is much more the type of guy the Cubs should target for Bellinger than Stroman is. And if not, just stay with Bellinger. The deal for Castillo would mean the Cubs would probably pick up another bat via FA. So is Castillo and Teoscar Hernandez better than Kikuchi and Bellinger? Honestly I am not sure. That is why I am fine just keeping Bellinger if they don’t get what they want.

Isn’t Ron, Coomer?

I don’t consider getting Castillo, just getting rid of Bellinger. I also don’t feel the prospect should come from the Cubs. If anything, since Seattle is getting the most valuable player in the deal, they would have to kick in a prospect to the Phillies. Cubs get Castillo for Bellinger. Pretty fair. Phillies get Bohm for Castillo. So they have to add to make it fair for the Phillies. Phillies get Bellinger for Bohm. So they need to get more. But more comes from the Mariners. Anything else added would be very small adds, if any.

Just the fact that one proposal has two opposite responses, one suggesting it is a bad deal for the Cubs and the other saying the Mariners would never do a deal like this, tells me it is probably pretty fair. But to your point, Mariners are looking for infield help. So why not add Phillies and Bohm in this deal? Phillies get Bellinger, who would do well in that park and helps them where they need help, Mariners get Bohm to help their infield, Cubs get Castillo. Add whatever else is needed, either some cash or lower level prospects. Not like the GM’s of both the Phillies and the Mariners are afraid to shake things up.

What would Flaherty cost for 4 years? If Castillo got them out of Bellinger I still think it is pretty fair. It could be a starting point. Add others and it money one way or the other. And Castillo is really 3/$72M+. The 4th year is $25M vesting IF he throws 180 innings in 2027. Which, if he does, he is probably worth the $25M. So just like Bellinger he is a little overpriced.

I don’t know. I really think Bellinger for Castillo is pretty fair. Maybe the Cubs add $5M to $6M to the deal to make salaries the same. Then both guys are good players but just not worth their money. Bellinger is an everyday player that bats anywhere 2 thru 6 in a line up and Castillo is a solid #3 pitcher. Fair deal IMI. But if the Cubs had to add anything I wouldn’t tbh knit would be a high end prospect. Maybe someone not in the top 30? But if that did happen are the Cubs better off with Castillo and FA bat, not Soto, or Kikuchi, Flanaagan or Eovaldi and Bellinger. That is what has to be asked.

For me, if the Cubs were to DUMP Bellinger it would be strictly for salary relief. Maybe save at least $20M of his contract and take little back. Then spend that $20M to $30M to replace his bat. Then with the original money go about their original business. Maybe if they got someone to take the entire contract they could also add a better pen arm via FA with extra money they had beteeen the Bellinger money and the money they pay whoever they sign. But is the team better with Teoscar Hernandez, Alonso, O’Neil or even any other FA they might sign (excluding Soto) instead of Bellinger? Honestly, I’m not sure. But what I am sure about is, I would rather have Bellinger and either Eovaldi or Kikuchi over Stroman and one of the FA bats I mentioned above. Trading Bellinger for Stroman isn’t the proper dumping of Bellinger. It is trading him for a worse, less useful player without gaining enough money to add someone to replace him. Dump to get out of his contract and then spend elsewhere, I get. Not sure I would do it, but I get it. Dump to add a #4 or #5 starter, I don’t get.

Thank you. I completely agree.

No interest in Stroman coming back to the Cubs.

I like it. But not sure they go with 4 lefties in the rotation. Also not sure Marlins agree to that deal. Maybe Eovaldi instead of Kikuchi? Like the bats you suggested. Solid bench bats.

Did you miss where I said Cubs pick up half of Bellinger s salary? If the Cubs picked up half of The $32M he would get if he opted out next year, he would only cost the Yankees $16M. So he doesn’t have to play to a $32M contract. If he didn’t opt out, his last year would be for $20M. So it is Bellinger for one year at $16M or two at $36, for the Yankees. That is not really negative value for them. Now, if they don’t want to trade Schmidt, I get that. That is fine. But I wouldn’t have any interest at all in Bellinger for Stroman. To use your argument about last year with Taillon, the rumor was the Cubs wanted to trade Taillon. But they didn’t. Maybe because what was left unsaid in that statement was they wanted to trade him “for fair value”. Not dump him. Maybe that is what is being unsaid again with Bellinger. Wanting to trade and wanting to dump are not the same. i do agree with you that now that they let Tauchman go the Bellinger talk is probably done. Maybe you weee right. Maybe they really WANTED to trade Bellinger. But maybe I was also right, and they didn’t want to just dump him. So they keep him. I don’t see it as some pile of wasted money. It is an overpay. Every team has those. Good teams with higher payrolls can still win. Hell, Astros won last year paying Abreu to suck and not even be in the team. At least Bellinger is a good player. And, IMO he woukd have been even better in NY. In that park I can see 25-30 homers, maybe .275 average and .350 OBP. Add that to good defense in center, right or first and you have probably a 3WAR player. But as we both said, probably not happening now. And I am fine with that.

If the Yankees are offering Stroman the Cubs aren’t trading Bellinger.

Bellinger isn’t going to be traded as a dump. They will just keep him. If they need to trade him at the deadline then they do that. But there is no reason at all for the Cubs to just salary dump Bellinger. If a team doesn’t give them what they want, they keep him. It is that simple.

Whatever you say Cuzi. But if you are right, then I hope they just keep him. He helps them win in 25’.

I expect the Cubs to sign Hoby Milner. Funky lefty previously with the Brewers. Seems like an obvious signing. So if they do, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

This is also true. And I am fine with that. Bellinger does not need to be traded to “dump salary”.