Rcal10
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Everything posted by Rcal10
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MLBTR had him listed as the 23rd best FA and getting 2/$25M. So not far off at all.
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Shaw is not going to be an everyday player this year. He is especially not going to be that guy if they have Nico and Parades on the roster. And right now they can’t get enough for either of those guys in a trade. Shaw may start the season for Nico. And if he hits maybe he sticks and plays 3 to 4 games a week. But him starting over either Nico or Parades.does not make the Cubs better next year. If Shaw proves he can hit early and then the Cubs can get proper value for either Parades or Hoerner in a deal, maybe at that time Shaw takes over. And because the Cubs get proper value for Nico or Parades, they are better with Shaw+.
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I don’t think they are going to reconstruct the bench. But one decent right handed bat wouldn’t hurt. What would Grichek cost. Him, a back up catcher Canario and a utility infielder would be it. I don’t expect them to spend much. I can see them adding one pen arm, a staring pitcher via trade, a catcher and let’s say Grichek. If the staring pitcher is young with control left his salary isn’t going to be so bad. Between minor league assets and money they should be able to do all of this.
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Nor should this happen. Why would Busch be in the bench for Cassie to play? Plus right now they aren’t getting anything for Hoerner.
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I didn’t say they were the same people. Just saying often a signing that people don’t particularly like turns out to be pretty good. I am not comparing the two. And, I am basically just trying to say something positive. I know a lot of people hate Jed and think he is a complete lame brain, but maybe the Cubs FO does have some encouraging reports on Boyd. Maybe they are all nincompoops. MAYBE????🤷🤞
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In an effort to put a positive spin on this move, maybe this will be the 2024 version of the Lugo signing of 23’. He wasn’t the most sought after pitcher in his mid 30’s, and he signed a 2 year deal for $30M. I am certain many considered the Royals out of their minds for that signing. But it worked out. Same with Manaea and even Severino last year. It isn’t always the top pitchers who prove to be the best signings. I actually like Boyd a bit. Just not at this dollar amount and not as the only move.
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I am still sticking to the premise they had about $46 to $50M to spend and still save $3M to $4M in the event they add at the deadline. So I still feel they have anywhere from $32M-$36M to spend. I honestly think the Bellinger trade idea wasn’t to cut payroll. It was to reallocate payroll. I feel too much is being made about the rumors they plan to cut payroll. My guess is that stemmed from them shopping Bellinger. I think they will be close to the LT line again this year, which leaves them with $32-$36M they can spend. That said, it is far more likely they trade for another pitcher than sign another FA. In fact of the 3 options, (go with this current rotation, trade for another starter or sign a FA starter)the signing would be the least likely thing they would do, IMO.
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There is no amount of depth any team can have not to make a play for Sasaki. They can worry about what to do with any excess if they get him.
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If they now trade for a staring pitcher and Boyd is the #5 I guess it is ok. But this is a lot of money for a #5. Leaves them at most $35M to spend. So the pitcher they trade for will have to be younger and controlled and probably cost a lot of minor league assets. But if they did that and still had around $30M they can add a pen arm, a catcher and a bench bat. But for now, I don’t see this as a good move. And, at best, with all of what I said above it is only an ok move adding a #5 starter at a high price.
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Pretty sure thawv was one of those people wanting to rush him to the majors. I don’t think the point of using PCA’s journey last year to compare it to Shaw’s journey this year was to show PCA didn’t have anything to prove. I think it is more to compare his 23’ numbers to Shaw’s numbers in 24’. PCA hit over .280, slugged over .500 and had OPS near .900 in 23’. And in 24’ he struggled a long time. Took him a while to even get to .215 with OPS over .600. Why should anyone expect anything different from Shaw? His numbers in 24’ were pretty close to PCA of 23’. The difference is Ahaw’s glove won’t keep him in the line up if he isn’t hitting.
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I’m not sure I would trade Shaw. But I guess if Shaw+ brings back someone at the level of Crochet I would consider it. That said, I do get your point. Instead of trading the established good player, trade the prospect for another good major league player. That makes the team better.
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Agreed. Shaw has had 600 AB as a professional. There is absolutely no reason to assume he is a top 5 2nd baseman in baseball. It is also very possible after 600 AB he isn’t ready and it is rushing him to expect him to be that good.
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Different year, but same thawv. He always wants to rush players.
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I think the only way one of the guys in the minors breaks through is if they dealt Bellinger. Assuming that doesn’t happen the only other way is if Shaw comes up to start the season while Nico is out. If he does well maybe he sticks and the Cubs go with some sort of rotation that gets him in games 3 to 4 times a week. Other than that, I don’t see the top prospects filling the bench and helping the team in 25’. I think Canario and Cowles are far more likely to be on the bench next year than Shaw and either Cassie or Alcantara. I would think they would want regular AB from the top prospects.
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Within the parameters you set I can see the following off season all with FA signings. Eovaldi(3/$57M), Finnagen 1/$10M), FA catchers (2/$15M) and Grichek (1/$8M). All in $44.5M and under budget. Obviously there are all sorts of other options. They could also make trades. But the point is all of these would fit what you suggested. I think the only place we differ is I would consider this an active off season and you seem to be suggesting something like this wouldn’t be much. If you add Parades and Pearson along with Morgan, that is 7 different players on the team to start 25 then there was in early July of 24’. I 100% agree with you that they are not going to sign a “star” player to a long deal. But 5 moves in the off season, added to a couple in the last part of last season is significant chance that can improve the team significantly.
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So who Aren significant players the cubs could sign but won’t sign. I am very curious as to who you are suggesting they won’t sign or add to the team which is not obvious to all of us.
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I can see Shaw being put on the 40 man. He might even be the starting second baseman while Nico is out. If he does well I can see him sticking. He might even be able to play 3 times a week, when Nico comes back. Give either Nico, Swanson, Parades, & Busch a day off and maybe even DH a day. This is all provided he is playing well. I would not want him up as the 26th man used sparingly.
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Cubs Looking At Free Agent Starters In The "Same Tier" As Shota Imanaga
Rcal10 replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I agree. I think there is an off season where someone like Eovaldi or Flaherty could be the biggest addition in name and they still improve a lot. Adding a decent pen arm (Holmes) to Morgan and you improve the pen. Adding a decent back up catcher helps there. They can also add either another swing starter or a decent bench bat. Maybe both if they make a trade and don’t have to add everyone via free agency. They have enough money to spend and minor league assets to trade to do all of that, with Eovaldi being the biggest name. And have a good off season. -
Well then I agree with you. Basically everyone agrees with you. I don’t think anyone has suggested they are going to get Soto or Burnes. Heard a little about Fried, but the Cubs basically told everyone they weren’t going there either. Honestly I don’t even know what 2 to 2.5 steps better than what they have even means. If you are waiting for those moves and are saying those won’t happen, again, I agree. But 3 to 4 smaller moves does move the needle up on an 83 win team. A starter better than Hendricks helps. Adding Morgan and another solid pen arm helps. Adding a decent catcher helps and adding a decent bench bat helps. They may also get help from either a trade of minor league assets or from the minors. When you say you don’t think you will see it does that mean you don’t think they will see these sort of moves or the “significant” (2 to 2.5 or more steps better) moves. Because on the first idea, I would disagree with you. I do expect at least 3 or 4 more moves this off season. On the idea of the significant step up, I would suggest that is obviously not happening, they have never indicated that would happen and no one expects it to happen.
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I think Flaherty is possible. To me the bigger issue with the Cubs is the QO penalty. And that isn’t a problem with Flaherty. I don’t think the $21M to maybe $24M a year and a 4 or 5 year deal is as big a deal as a pitcher having a QO attached to him. In the end they might not feel he is worth that money, but I am not ruling him out.
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You are kind of saying what I am saying, I think. Is adding someone like Eovaldi to the rotation a significant upgrade over Hendricks? I would say yes. Is adding a FA catcher like Kelly, Jansen or Yankees catcher an upgrade of the catcher position? Again, I would say yes. Does adding another pen arm upgrade the pen? That arm and Morgan added, I would say yes. Does maybe adding Grichek to the bench to replace Wisdom provide an upgrade? Again, yes. Maybe not one move is significant by itself, but 4 decent moves does make for a significant upgrade to the roster. And that doesnt Include a possible trade for another starting pitcher. Do you think all of this is possible? Not the exact moves. But similar moves? I do. And I would call that significant. They may not do it. But I am asking you, if they did, would that be significant?
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Oh, I am fully aware they won’t let go of the team. It just sucks if they actually cut payroll and cry broke again. But let’s not put the carriage before the horse. Maybe cutting payroll just means a little less than the LT line. Like $6M ish less. So basically same philosophy as always. I have come to terms with that philosophy, and that isn’t going to change. But dropping down well below the line would be a whole new level of suckage. .
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True. But actually the reports sound like a bunch of nothing really. As 1908 pointed out, it sounded like the Cubs were not in on any of the high end FA, BUT if they traded Bellinger that could change. That said, I doubt they would be in on the top tier (Soto, Burnes, Fried, Snell) anyway. So really that isn’t even a story. It also does not signal they are dropping salary. It just explains why they were looking to move Bellinger. They may still move Bellinger (I personally don’t care either way- as long as they then spend the money they save by trading him). Back to the dropping salary comment I think that could also mean they spend closer to $42M-$45M to stay clear of the LT so that they don’t go a little over again this year due to some accounting mistake. I don’t expect them to come $30M short of the LT line and pocket the money they could save by trading Bellinger. I also don’t think they will only add $20 to the budget if they keep Bellinger. But who knows🤷 Maybe that is their plan. If it is, the plan sucks and Ricketts needs to sell the team. At the very least they should always be right up against the LT line. And if they are having a good year at the deadline they need to add, regardless if it brings them over.
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Cubs Looking At Free Agent Starters In The "Same Tier" As Shota Imanaga
Rcal10 replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I wouldn’t mind Lorenzen as the second guy they signed. Spot starter or even 5th starter. He can’t be the guy they pencil in ahead of Tailon and just go with him. -
Cubs "Probably Out" On Top-End Free Agents
Rcal10 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Yep. I just don’t see the Cubs signing someone attached to a QO. If two pitchers are close to equal I think they would pay more to the one without the QO attached to him, instead of maybe getting the other one a little cheaper or for a year or two less but lose the picks and money that goes with the picks. And I hjfhlh doubt they have interest in someone for 3 years or less that is attached to a QO. (Manaea or Pivetta as examples). I think they would lean towards Eovaldi or Flaherty instead.
