Rcal10
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Everything posted by Rcal10
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Very true.
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I think the “just get in and anything can happen” model is downplaying the team a little. It just sounds too much like “maybe you get lucky”. I don’t see the Cubs team that way. They aren’t the Reds of last year or even the Dbacks the year they did go to the WS. If they win 90+ games I don’t view it as they need luck to beat the Dodgers. I see it as a series where the Dodgers have a 55%. To me that is better than “anything can happen, luck”.
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I am not that worried about PCA, to tell the truth. His OPS+ was 118 last year with a bad second half. If you also add the last half of ‘24 he is basically a guy who would be right around that 118 mark. I realize picking a arbitrary starting point is frowned on here, but I am using the last half of ‘24 because prior to that I am giving him time to get his footing in MLB. I can definitely see a guy who is between 115 and 125 annually. Sure, I would like it being more consistent, but that might not be how it does. If the end result turns into .250/.300/.460 and he hits over 20 doubles, steals over 30 bases, and hit 20+ homers a year along with his great defense he will be a 4+ WAR guy yearly.
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With the Dodgers in the NL, even Soto and Crochet wouldn’t make them favorites. Just realize the Dodgers will almost ALWAYS be favorites with the amount of money they will spend. Shoot for a definite playoff, division winning team and let the playoffs play out.
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Who knows? I just think he will age fine. Muncy had his two best years at 33 and 34. Judge has his 2 best years, so far, at 32 and 33. Do you think he will slip the next 2 years? I think, even slipping he will post a WAR close enough to his contract value, even at 35 and 36.
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I actually like Bregman’s contract better. I think he will be fine the length of the deal. I am glad he doesn’t have an opt out after 2 years. Also, with the deferred money, depending on what deferrals are in Valdez contract. He is cheaper annually. I understand your apprehension about him slipping. I get all the projections people love to use to explain it will happen. But there are guys who play well in their mid/late 30’s. Goldy won an MVP not long ago. He slipped his last 2 years. But he is in his late 30’s. Votto hit 36 homers at 37. Was putting up Bitto numbers in his early to mid 30’s. Bregman plays his last year with the Xubs at 36. I am not worried about him. He is a baseball rat. He works at it all the time. I believe he will age fine.
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To me it is an easy answer. Bregman.
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I get what you are saying and if the Cubs don’t get Gallen, that is ok. However, if they did get him, IMO, they would be doing so because they feel they can fix him and turn him back into the pitcher he was prior to 2025. If that is the case why wouldn’t he also be someone counted on for being just as good as the pitchers you feel the Cubs are counting on? Wouldn’t they be better off having 4 guys they hope to get their upside years from, rather then 3? Maybe 3 of 4 reach the upside.
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I think Mo is going to hit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a guy hitting .280-.300 with 15-18 homers as his best case scenario. Maybe a wRC guy of 125. I am not suggesting next year. But your question is best case scenerio. I took it to mean as he plays a while in the league. Now, the issue is, can he catcher. I think for that to happen, the best case scenario this year would be the Cubs get another bat who can DH and play outfield. Leave Mo at Iowa this season and let him catch every day. Maybe (again, you asked best case scenario) he can become an average defensive catcher. An average catcher with his hitting ability is an all star catcher. That is the ultimate best case scenario. I do think he will DH this year and do well. I am talking ROY contention, well. I am fine with him on the team. But in doing so, IMO, they are deciding his position will be DH for his career.
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I definitely didn’t want Hoerner traded. I am fine either way with Shaw. Had they been overwhelmed in a deal I would have been fine moving him. But fine that he is not being dealt.
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That is my opinion as well.
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This move doesn’t move the needle for me with Shaw. IMO he wouldn’t have been Shaw’s replacement anyway. That said, I think IKF signing with the Red Sox does indicate the Red Sox are not trading for Shaw.
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WOW! That is crazy money. Has to be deferred money, right?
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If it follows the other Cubs moves this off season, the Cubs will sign him in a day or two. Remember the Yankees were supposed to be working on a trade for Cabrera and then out of nowhere the Xubs trade for him. Bregman was going to Boston. They were working on a deal, and he signs with the CubsNow it is Gallen’s turn. Cubs work quietly behind the scenes. So if they do end up with him it will happen suddenly without rumors.
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I agree, every follow doesn’t end up a draft pick. Could be because a team takes the guy a little earlier than the Cubs would have. But IMO it does mean they have an interest. Connects the dots, IMO this is a final step to see what a player is into. Maybe they don’t want another Shaw situation. As you said, they might not get either of those guys. But this does appear to mean they are seriously looking at them. Early+ for Shaw and the. Sign Gallen. I like it. 🤞Sign or trade for a utility bat. Does Wicks, Assad or Ben Brown get Casey Schmidt? He can take Shaw’s spot at utility.
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You may not have been responding to me, but I want to be clear, I am not advocating for Suarez. My comment was strictly in the event the Cubs traded for or signed someone who replaced Mo as the DH. Even if Mo could give them the same numbers of who they traded for or signed, allowing Mo to learn how to catch in Iowa might be worth the salary they give a guy to take MO’s spot on the roster. If by staying in Iowa another year he turns into a starting catcher instead of. DH, it is money well spent.
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I agree that Mo might be just as good offensively. But if he could spend an entire year in Iowa catching and he ends up being average defensively as a catcher, he becomes even more valuable moving forward. In essence the money they would spend on Suarez or another guy they would get so Mo could catch in AAA would be well spent if he ends up a guy who catches 110 games a year.
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Kind of interesting.
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2025-2026 Offseason Top Prospects Lists
Rcal10 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Alcantara all the way down to 7? Maybe the rest is logical, but I feel Kevin shouldn’t be that far down. Definitely prospect fatigue going on with him. -
Hitters slump virtually every year. Good for a bit, great for a bit and then not so good. That is kind of normal. Plus a lot of thjngs go into a supposed slump. Was he hitting the ball just as hard during the slump? Was he hitting in bad luck? Etc…. Pitchers, on the other hand, don’t normally have a 10 game stretch that Valdez had without something being off. His last 10 starts his WHIP was over 1.50. That is bad and not normal. Sure, there are pitching slumps too, but not as easily explained as hitting. Tjat said, Valdez is most likely going to be very good. I was just pointing out something that “could be” a concern if GM’s. That added to them his actions could lead to a slower market. But it won’t be low enough for thr Xubs to get involved, IMO.
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And an era over 5 the last half of last year. Not saying he is done. But I do think that last half has some teams concerned, along with him being an aSS hole. I doubt he gets to a level the Cubs would be willing to pay him.
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Sure, it can happen. But Jason’s point is you can’t start Boyd or Tailon on the IL if they aren’t hurt. Dodgers had a lot of injuries with pitchers. They basically sign guys knowing they can’t hold up all season. Sure they manipulate the system somewhat, that doesn’t mean you can just randomly IL someone. Both Boyd and Tailon are on their walk year. I doubt they will be okay with a phantom IL stint. They are going to want to be healthy all year so they make more moving forward.
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Regarding Gallen, that is where I am at. Has to be 2 years before he can opt out. I don’t see them losing a pick to get him for 1 year only. Maybe 2/$40 with a third year player option at another $20M with a $4M opt out. Something like that. That’s $44M guaranteed. Of course, this is provided the Cubs feel they can fix him
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Make sense. Thought with the LT line not being an issue they could add some money and actually get someone who helps them when trading Tailon. But maybe not🤷.
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Would the Cubs be able to get a utility bat on the last year of his contract for Taillon? Let’s say McNeil. A’s need pitching. Would they do a one for one? Then the Cubs could either trade Shaw or let Ballesteros catch in Iowa. Gallen and McNeil instead of Taillon and Shaw (plus you get something for Shaw in a trade) is a solid upgrade. Or McNeil instead of Ballesteros, while the bat might be an even swap, they allow Mo to work on catching in the minors. Doesn’t have to be McNeil either. Just a thought of a team who wants pitching and can maybe move a bat. Orioles are another option. But they don’t look to have anyone who fits the bat part of the equation.
