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treebird

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Everything posted by treebird

  1. treebird
    This thread is a joke, so I'm not going to mess with it. However, I did want to point out that this statement is completely untrue. Pitchers do NOT come back stronger. Sometimes they come back throwing harder than they did immediately before their surgery, but this is due to the fact that these injuries don't happen overnight. They get worse and worse over time, and by the time they actually have to have the surgery, they're down from where they once were already.
  2. treebird
    This is beyond me. I haven't read the book in a while, but I don't remember any way to account for such an extreme example. If someone smarter would like to help, that'd be great. Otherwise, that question is going unanswered. Do you have the book? It's been out of print and I'm trying to get my hands on a copy. Yes, I have it. If you ever found a copy, I'd reccomend it. It's a great resource, and some of this essays are really excellent.
  3. treebird
    The reason the team with the better record has a better record is because they have better players overall. Say Neifi and Eckstein have each had the exact same season to this point, value wise. Eckstein won't have a higher value than Neifi because guys like Pujols and Edmonds will be taking up all those extra win shares. I'm sure now I'm getting into where Win Shares gets really complex, but how do you account for chance? Performance numbers don't correlate precisely with win-loss record, correct? This is something that people complain about. Basically, if a guy is lucky, he gets credit for it. If a team is lucky, they get credit for it.
  4. treebird
    This is beyond me. I haven't read the book in a while, but I don't remember any way to account for such an extreme example. If someone smarter would like to help, that'd be great. Otherwise, that question is going unanswered.
  5. treebird
    The reason the team with the better record has a better record is because they have better players overall. Say Neifi and Eckstein have each had the exact same season to this point, value wise. Eckstein won't have a higher value than Neifi because guys like Pujols and Edmonds will be taking up all those extra win shares.
  6. treebird
    If I understand the win shares correctly, Pujols has 30 of his team's 228 win shares, or 13%. Lee has 29 of his team's 177 win shares, or 16%. Wouldn't that make him more valuable to his team than Pujols? I don't get win shares as a way of comparing players on different teams. Win Shares is a stat that tells you how many wins a given player has contributed to his team. 3 win shares = 1 win. 1 win share is hardly conclusive evidence, but it indicates that Pujols has contributed one third of a win more than Lee. If you go by percentage of team's win shares, a good player on a bad team will always look best. Bay and Dunn also rate higher than Pujols. Evaluating two players on different teams is simple, the bigger number the better. However, like I said, 1 win share is definitely not a huge margin.
  7. treebird
    WIN SHARES pujols 30 lee 29 dunn 26 ensberg 25 bay 25 kent 24 clemens 23 edmonds 23 giles 23 abreu 22 I'm down with that as my MVP ballot. andruw has 20, btw.
  8. treebird
    MOST people are much more bold. you probably shouldn't go to a day game with me.
  9. treebird
    My Cardinal fan friend was talking about this, so I looked up his splits from past years. Last year he had a 5.37 era at night and a 3.20 era during the day. 2002 and 2003, he was basically the same day or night. Strikes me as flukish.
  10. treebird
    I can't believe how many people picked the A's. I might be the biggest fan of them on here, and I wouldn't say they're any better than 50/50 to even make the playoffs, let alone win 2 rounds.
  11. treebird

    Amazin' A's

    treebird replied to JC's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    oops the a's are sucking They've lost four in a row, including a three game sweep at home against the O's. They are now 2.5 games back of the Angels and are just 1 game ahead of the Yankees in the Wild Card. Basically the offense has died. In the past 4 games they've scored 9 runs. And while they had a legitimate complaint about a poor call at first base last night that lead to three runs scoring in a game they lost 4-3 (i was watching the orioles broadcast, and they really ripped the umpire) the fact remains that they sucked.
  12. treebird
    5 ip, 78 pitches, 49 strikes
  13. treebird
    NOBODY CARES ABOUT WINS AND THEY ARENT HELPING YOUR ARGUMENT WINS ARE MEANINGLESS I am not saying Carp should be the Cy Young winner. But to say that wins are meaningless is wrong. Because baseball writers who vote for the Cy Young historically look at wins, and how the team does. I think Clemens should win it because of his ERA. But voters vote for wins and they proved that last year when Clemens won it. the voters who vote based on wins are stupid and shouldn't be allowed to vote. this is a discussion of who should win, not who will win due to moronic voters who think 20 wins mean a good season and less than 15 wins means kerry wood sucks.
  14. treebird
    NOBODY CARES ABOUT WINS AND THEY ARENT HELPING YOUR ARGUMENT WINS ARE MEANINGLESS
  15. treebird
    she HAS cancer
  16. treebird
    Thanks for saying nice things about me. I didn't mean to be condescending. If I was, sorry. But I'm pretty sure that I usually am the opposite of how people describe. I'm often harsher towards established posters that I'm familiar with, as I know that they'll be able to tell I'm not just looking to pick a fight.
  17. treebird
    This is extremely unfair. Ramirez is hurt now, so he can't run well. Wood's had arm problems, so he hasn't always been able to pitch. Those things are true. However, when healthy, Wood goes all-out all the time. Ramirez? Maybe it's just me, but I seem to remember plenty of times where he didn't bother running to first after a ground-out or when he was slow getting out of the box because he was admiring his hit (On that, didn't he get thrown out at second this year in St. Louis on what should have been a sure double because he was watching his shot?). Ramirez is one of my favorite Cubs. He's been a god-send at third. I hesitated to post in this thread because a) I didn't start posting here to bash players and b) I didn't want the reputation of some drunken, off-the-cuff talk radio fan. Thinking Wood should pitch through pain is pretty ridiculous, IMO. But expecting a player (when healthy, mind you) to run hard all the time is not -- and Ramirez doesn't always do so. When's the last time Ramirez was fully healthy? And please explain how you can be sure.
  18. treebird
    when you have to have a long, drawn-out discussion to determine whether or not a pitcher is having a better season than Bob Gibson in 1968, i think it makes it pretty obvious who should win the cy young.
  19. treebird
    I hope the people who jump on Aramis for not hustling while playing hurt aren't the same ones who jump on Wood for being "unwilling" to pitch through pain.
  20. treebird
    my thoughts exactly.
  21. treebird
    :(
  22. treebird
    Completely agree. Almost any dive you see comes on a play in which, if the outfielder would just keep running, he'd get to the ball anyway. While I'm sure everyone will be all "EDMONDS, EDMONDS" on this, I think the real king of the unnecessary dive is Eric Byrnes.
  23. treebird
    and #2 in all of baseball, behind Varitek. agreed. dap for hendry.
  24. treebird
    How true is that! They have been terrible. hahahah i love the quote from that scout. What does the lack of heart have to do with anything? I'd guess that the reason they walk guys and give up hits is because they suck. Come on Tree, everyone knows that if you want something bad enough, it's gonna happen! If you have enough heart and you try real hard you're gonna be great! i want to believe that, but i guess i dont want to believe that enough.
  25. treebird
    How true is that! They have been terrible. hahahah i love the quote from that scout. What does the lack of heart have to do with anything? I'd guess that the reason they walk guys and give up hits is because they suck.
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