RandallPnkFloyd

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images In Major League Baseball's postseason, nothing happens in a vacuum. You can win individual games during the regular season on the strength of just one phase of the roster. The offense pops off to a point where pitching and defense have to merely show up. The pitching might do its job to carry a team across nine innings despite a slow day at the plate. Perhaps it's less about either, and more about what the defense is able to do to stifle an opponent. Stack enough of them and you're playing in October. Regardless of the shape it takes, it's difficult for one phase to carry a team over a particular stretch beyond the confines of an isolated nine innings. In the postseason, the calculus changes. Yes, those individual components can still win games, but it's a much more nuanced process in being able to stack the requisite wins that lead to a legitimate October run—and each individual win is a bigger part of such a run. The Chicago Cubs were able to bounce the San Diego Padres on the strength of their pitching and of their defense. A pair of 3-1 wins offered just enough offense to get the job done, but it was on the strength of their arms and their gloves they were able to advance into the National League Division Series. Now staring down their division rivals in Milwaukee, it's going to require some support from the other phase of the roster if the team is to progress beyond the first legitimate round of play. That means that Nico Hoerner could very well be the most important (and most dangerous) player on the positional side of the Cubs' roster. Don't get it twisted: the Cubs have more impactful players than Hoerner. Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong are among the players capable of popping at any particular moment. But in order to beat a team like the Brewers, there's a certain level of stability that's needed: stability of bat, stability of glove, stability of mindset. At a time when the vibe has the chance to become anything but, Hoerner represents a calming presence for this group. At some point throughout the season, there's been a stretch of poor production or a concerning trend for seemingly each player on the Cubs' roster. Such a stretch doesn't exist for Nico Hoerner: It's a fairly standard rolling wOBA chart for the first 300 or so plate appearances. But as you get closer to the middle of the season, there's a consistent brilliance that begins to manifest. Hoerner's full season numbers (a .297/.345/.394 line with a 7.6% strikeout rate, 6.0% walk rate, and .324 wOBA) aren't buoyed by an especially torrid stretch, in the way that Crow-Armstrong or recent opponent Fernando Tatis Jr might have been. Instead, this is a picture of consistency. In the months prior to September (which stands as something of a positive outlier), Hoerner never had a batting average over .295 in an individual month—but he also never had one go below .283. His on-base percentage was at its highest in July (.347) but never fell below .330. He had three separate months where it was .339. His wOBA never fell below .308, and never went above .324. Not only is it remarkably steady output, but it's quality. At the absolute worst of 2025, Hoerner was a league-average bat. His outlying performances have been well above that. It's consistency not only in production, but in process. His swing rate never fluctuated more than five percentage points from month to month. Nor (and perhaps this is more important) did his contact rate, where he topped out at 92.0% and sat at a season-low 87.1% back in May. It's the same story mechanically, where he's had the same amount of tilt in his swing since June, the same swing length in each month except June, and has remained within 0.5 MPH of the same efficient bat speed he started with back in March & April (68.4). All of this leaves us with little surprise as to the quiet steadiness of Hoerner through the Cubs' first three playoff games. Hoerner has yet to notch a walk or a strikeout, but is still rolling with a .364 average through a dozen plate appearances. None of this even begins to bring his defense into the equation. But Hoerner's clear commitment to process on both sides of the ball is how you end up getting something like this in a crucial spot: A player this sound is an intensely dangerous player under the heat of an October spotlight. Sure, Suzuki or Busch may make more noise at the plate and Crow-Armstrong might turn a game on the bases, but it's on the strength of the steadiness of someone like Hoerner that the difference is going to be made. This is a Brewers team that can pitch and manage a staff effectively. Their team ERA ranked second in the league (3.59), while possessing the league's sixth-best strikeout rate (23.7%). They put balls in play, with Milwaukee hitters tied for fourth in strikeout rate (20.3%)). A player like Hoerner is exactly how you can begin to mitigate each of those factors. It's process-oriented in a way that correlates with postseason success. There will surely be players to make a louder impact at any point, for however long this series against Milwaukee lasts, but it's hard to imagine a presence of more sustained importance than Nico Hoerner in the 2025 NLDS. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images As the Chicago Cubs prepare to head north to kick off the National League Division Series in Milwaukee, they can do so with the knowledge that a couple of their key hitters appear to (finally) be getting right at exactly the correct time. There was a point in the second half where things looked bleak for each of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. Despite the former's status at one point as a Most Valuable Player candidate and the latter spending much of the first half showcasing why he's a premier offensive talent, there wasn't much to speak of from either bat in the final stretch of the regular season. Crow-Armstrong turned in a .216/.262/.372 line in the second half, checking in with a wRC+ of only 72. August was a particularly brutal month for him, as that wRC+ figure came in at a mere 22 across 112 plate appearances. Tucker, meanwhile, went for a .231/.360/.378 line in half No. 2. Despite characteristically strong approach numbers that allowed him to remain a fixture on the basepaths, his power (and contributions in general) plummeted. He posted a wRC+ of 115 that represented a 30-point drop from his first half number. The respective reasoning behind their struggles is where the two differ. Crow-Armstrong was working through mechanical issues and what looked like some visible fatigue as the season wore on, while Tucker's hand fracture compounded with a September calf injury to pin down his ability create the same level of impact that we saw at the plate in the first half of the year. Regardless of the factors generating such intense struggles for two of the team's essential bats, it appears each is on his way to serving as a factor in the NLDS. As we approached the end of the regular season, there were at least signs that Crow-Armstrong was on his way back. He recorded at least one hit in five of his last six starts of the regular season, including back-to-back games with home runs in the final weekend. Even so, his postseason debut was a struggle. He went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts while whiffing seven times on nine swings. While the result in Game 2 might not have been terribly different (0-for-3 with two strikeouts), he at least cut the whiffs down a touch (five on nine swings) and saw 18 pitches across his three trips to the plate. But it's his 3-for-4 effort in Thursday's Game 3 that bodes particularly well for the start of the series against Milwaukee. Therein, he whiffed just thrice on 10 swings (another 18 pitches). His first notch on the stat sheet was a softer-hit single (86.4 MPH), but then he checked in with singles that came off the bat at 100.8 MPH and 109.4 MPH. It's the type of contact that can do wonders for a hitter in the confidence game. Tucker, on the other hand, started to show signs of bouncing back as early as in Game 2. He didn't have quite the same close to the regular season, as he only made three starts at a 1-for-12 output upon his activation from the injured list. So, it wasn't necessarily surprising to see him go 0-for-3 in Game 1. And while he recorded just one hit in four plate appearances in Game 2, he was able to produce a pair of hard hits in the effort (99.0 & 96.3 MPH). Like Crow-Armstrong, Tucker was able to put multiple hits on the board in Game 3, as he went 2-for-4 and came across the score one of the team's three runs. What's particularly encouraging about Tucker, though, is in his lack of swing-and-miss in the series at large. Not that it had been an issue for him during the regular season in the way it was for someone like Crow-Armstrong, but despite whiffing at three pitches on eight swings in Game 2, he bookended the series with a single whiff in each of Game 1 and Game 3. If he's on his way back to a level of strength more akin to the version we saw in the first half, then that near-absence of whiff is going to be a massive boon to the Cubs' lineup against the Brewers. Despite a lack of overall run production, there are a lot of things going right for this Cubs lineup at present. They're getting hits on the board and maintaining a regular presence on the basepaths. Hitters like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker have their spot in the lineup on the strength of their ability to generate production with the guys around them getting on base. The value of these two appearing to be on a track toward getting back to the perception we had of their contributions for the bulk of the first half cannot be overstated. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs will be without rookie starter Cade Horton for at least the Wild Card round of the 2025 postseason—and probably for the whole thing. His absence, which comes by way of a fractured rib, means a couple of different things for this group and their immediate future. Horton led the team in second-half ERA (1.03), FIP (2.80), and fWAR (1.8). That isn't easy value to replace. The team is now tasked with actually trying to replace said value. Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga will each get a start (probably in that order) in the first two games against San Diego. On paper, that's a favorable start to the series against a lineup that skews left-handed—or at least, in light of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s (.845 OPS against right-handed pitchers, .696 against lefties) peculiar splits, is more dangerous overall against right-handed hurlers. That leaves one of Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea in position to nab a start in a potential Game 3, should it progress to that point. To which Craig Counsell would turn in that scenario, though, is anybody's guess at this juncture. On the whole, Taillon has had an underwhelming season. He's made 23 starts, with a 3.68 ERA, a 4.66 FIP, and the lowest strikeout rate of his career (18.1%). Even with the lack of punchouts, it's still a fine year, but he's had issues with the home run ball. Taillon's 13.6% HR/FB rate is his highest since his rookie campaign in 2016, and is tied with Imanaga for the worst rate on the team. But despite his battles with the go-fer ball, Taillon actually has a couple of factors working in his favor. For one, the Padres are not a team particularly adept at hitting home runs. Their 148 homers rank just 28th in the majors, and they own a .136 collective ISO that sits in the same position. They're neither clearing fences or splitting gaps at a high rate. Taillon is also above-average at limiting hard contact, on a per-batted ball basis. He should be able to keep San Diego in the park, and under the wraps of the Cubs' excellent defense. If, for some reason, Counsell eschews his highly-paid veteran, then it'll likely be Colin Rea out of the starting gate in a Game 3. Rea has been a stabilizing force for a team that has fought against rotation issues all year, going for an ERA of 3.95, a 4.12 FIP, a 19.2% strikeout rate, and a 6.8% walk rate. Like Taillon, Rea has been quite good in the second half (3.14 FIP, 22.1 K%), so he carries a certain amount of momentum into October in his own right. Where his counterpart may have the advantage, though, is in Taillon's work against left-handers. Taillon vs. LHH: .200 AVG, 21.2 K%, 7.2 BB%, 13.9 HR/FB%, .275 wOBA Rea vs. LHH: .292 AVG, 19.0 K%, 9.2 BB%, 14.9 HR/FB%, .366 wOBA And there's your separator. Regardless of who starts, that individual is going to have to contend with Jackson Merrill, Gavin Sheets, and Jake Cronenworth. Factor in the contact factor from Luis Arráez or the potential for Ryan O'Hearn to suddenly break out, and that's a volume of lefties you'd like to manage as efficiently as possible. Given that this group isn't also concentrated in any specific portion of the lineup, it really does leave Taillon as the more appropriate option of the two. There are, of course, caveats to any Game 3 situation. Quick hooks will likely abound, which means that there could be a need for volume beyond the starter. If the game is managing the left-handed hitters in the Padres' lineup, then Michael Soroka could be first in line for a multi-inning appearance, ahead of Javier Assad. Left-handed hitters have a .320 wOBA against Soroka and a .363 mark against Assad in '25. Soroka also offers quite a bit more in the strikeout game (25.2%, compared to Assad's 12.7%). Against a Padres team that doesn't strike out and scores runs largely on the strength of their on-base volume, there's a pretty clear path for the middle innings as well. It's going to be a lot for Counsell to navigate. The Cubs will enter the Wild Card Series with a decent collection of relief arms, but you're also operating within the confines of just three games. Length and efficiency will be needed from each of Boyd and Imanaga, before Counsell can even begin to roll out a coherent gameplan for what would happen in a Game 3. But compounding Taillon with Soroka does appear to be the most effective initial idea, depending on what else happens between the certain now and the possible then. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images It turns out that when a hitter creates high-quality contact, good things tend to happen. Ian Happ is learning as much here in the month of September. Obviously, Happ was trying to do that all along, even during a sleepy first half. It just wasn't happening for him. Compound some brutal luck with questions around the quality of his baserunning, and it would have been entirely reasonable to suggest one of the Chicago Cubs' top outfield prospects start to eat into his playing time (and hey: we did). It's funny how quickly those questions and their accompanying suggestions begin to fade, though, when the chips start falling in your favor a little more frequently. There wasn't a lot to love in Happ's line through the end of August. Despite a characteristically high walk rate (13.2%), he spent the majority of the year turning in just-okay production everywhere else. His line read .234/.335/.402, with a 109 wRC+ that scratched just a bit above that average threshold. Even his .168 ISO feels a little weird to invest in, given that it was propped up by a torrid .274 mark in June (which was also, ironically, a month in which he checked in with a lower-than-average walk rate and an on-base percentage under .300). Ultimately, it's all fine. Happ's 2025 has been acceptably above-average, even with some of the shortcomings that have manifested throughout. When we look at the negative perception that developed around Happ's production, much it likely stems from a slog of a stretch between June and July. Despite the power output in the former that allowed his ISO across the two months to sit over .200, Happ's line included an average of just .198 and an OBP of only .300. He had a pedestrian (literally, since he hit for such a low average that he badly needed his walks) 102 wRC+. It was a struggle that led to the noted questions about playing time, especially with Owen Caissie demonstrating proficiency upon his arrival at the big-league level. Working against Happ in all of that (beyond the narrative, of course) was his batting average on balls in play. His BABIP in June checked in at just .200; the July figure was .196. There isn't necessarily an evident reason for those struggles, either. Sure, Happ's ground-ball rate in those two months was higher than in any other month this year (37.8% in June, 40.7% in July), and yes, his BABIP on ground balls was just .192. But the rate in each month was at or below his career average, and his BABIP was only .083 on fly balls across the two. Those are two of the first areas we look when looking at BABIP issues, but they reveal almost nothing. There were also some mechanical issues that we noted back in July that could point to the source, but much of that came from Happ's hitting right-handed and none of it was sustained to the point where we could draw any firm conclusions. That's to say nothing of an oblique injury he sustained in early May that could have had a bearing on the subsequent two months. It seems as though the struggles were multifactorial; there's no one culprit here. Regardless of the reasons, however, it's clear that Happ now has his BABIP woes behind him. As the Cubs' offense has ascended in September, Happ has been a driver of the improvement we're starting to see from a group that was anemic for roughly two months. Through the 15 games in which he's played, Happ's wRC+ (193) trails only Nico Hoerner among Cubs regulars. He's bringing a .321/.443/.625 line to the table. Most notable for our purposes, however, is the fact that Happ's BABIP sits at a robust .342. He actually had an even higher BABIP (.349) in May. The difference lies is the fact that while Happ is finding success everywhere else on the stat sheet this month, he hit just .243 in May (99 wRC+) and struck out nearly 30 percent of the time (29.3% strikeout rate), while bookending the month around that oblique issue. Happ struggled to make contact within the zone in May as well, with an in-zone whiff rate of nearly 21%. So there was some good fortune, but not a whole lot else to lean on. It's a stark contrast to what we're seeing in September. Happ's overall contact rate remains similar to what he turned in in May and throughout the rest of the year. What he's doing with that contact, however, stands out: Happ's 58.1% hard-hit rate sits at least 12 percent above any other output he's posted this year in an individual month. The quality of contact is working in conjunction with an increase in the flyball rate (41.9%) to help Happ overcome the BABIP monster that plagued him so much in the middle months of the year. There isn't much in the approach that's changed; Happ has been a touch more aggressive but is still demonstrating much of the same contact and whiff tendencies we've seen all year. What is notable, though, is what's happening with Happ's bat within the zone: Attack direction speaks to the horizontal movement of the sweet spot of the bat as it makes contact with the ball. Happ's attack direction has been getting closer to zero since July, in a pretty steep trend. What this means in his case is more opposite-field contact; his Pull% has dropped by at least 5 percentage points between each month since July. This is indicative of a strong grasp of the zone. Happ's catching the ball where it's pitched and executing the contact accordingly. His zone profile since the start of August tells us that much. Here's where Happ is getting pitched as a right-handed hitter: And here's where he's seeing the ball as a lefty swinger: Opposing pitchers are working predominantly outside against Happ, regardless of the side of the plate from which he's working. The decreasing attack direction is illustrating the idea that he's acutely aware of this and acting as such, working to the opposite field at a higher rate than he had been in July, which was the month of his greatest struggle this month. Quality contact in the ideal direction for where the ball is pitched should equate to more batted-ball "luck," which is really just the residue of design. It's been noted both on social media and from colleagues, but it remains somewhat humorous that at this current pace, Ian Happ is going to give us a nearly identical season to what he's turned in for the last few. But it hasn't been without some extreme month-to-month variance in the production. Some of that is the nature of baseball, which would be an easier solution to accept if it weren't for the absence of a surefire explanation for the low points, particularly in 2025. Regardless of the reasons for the mid-year struggle (mechanics, health, bad luck), it's apparent that Happ is now a hitter in control. Always in possession of good discipline, Happ has started to make the zone work for him. Combine the two things, and you have a guy in the process of spinning the entire narrative in his favor at the most crucial time of the year. View full article

Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images To say that Willi Castro's bat has regressed since joining the Chicago Cubs would be a severe understatement. The utilityman slashed .245/.335/.407 as a member of the Minnesota Twins, checking in at a 108 wRC+ prior to the trade that sent him to the North Side. While Castro has helped to stabilize the bench—logging time at second base, third base, and all three outfield spots—the bat hasn't made the trip quite yet. His batting line as a member of the Cubs comes in at only .188/.266/.259. His wRC+ sits at 52. That's not terribly surprising; much of Castro's value is derived out of his versatility, after all. That bat has, historically, been prone to some ebbs and flows. But, for a team without Kyle Tucker at present due to a calf injury, Castro is starting to find his way in generating value on the other side of the ball. That's not to say that Castro is the full-time right fielder in the Cubs' lineup sans Tucker. But it is notable that a team that has had Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara on the roster at various points in the last month has rolled Castro out there seven times in his last 10 appearances. That slate of games runs back to September 2, the point at which the team was first without Tucker. Since that mark on the calendar, Castro has gone for a slash of .269/.441/.308 with a 132 wRC+. The slugging is indicative of the fact that we're still not seeing much in the way of impact from Castro (not that we expected to), but there's one key component of his game that is driving his success over these last 10 games: his plate discipline. It's important to note that "approach" and "discipline" at the plate are not interchangeable concepts. Approach speaks to the ability to work a walk, yes, but it's also about parlaying a keen eye into quality contact and, as such, a certain level of impact on the box score. Castro isn't offering that. What he is offering, though, is the pure ability to work a walk due to an increased level of plate discipline. Castro's walk rate since September 2 sits at 20.6 percent. Only six hitters with at least 30 plate appearances over that small-ish sample have a higher rate over that span. That list includes names like Kyle Schwarber (21.4 percent), Aaron Judge (21.2), and Shohei Ohtani (20.7). In short, Castro's ability to draw a walk in this stretch that is approaching two weeks of play sits as legitimately elite. It doesn't appear to be an overly complicated process, either. The following is Castro's swing rate over the course of the 2025 season: You'll note the rather significant dip in the rate at the tail end of it. Since this isn't a rolling graph but rather one that illustrates individual games, this does speak to the idea that he's really tamped down his free-swinging habits since stepping into regular right field duty. Unsurprisingly, his chase rate has fallen along with it: The two visuals make it very clear that Castro is demonstrating a much more assertive command of the zone as a hitter. He's swinging less overall, but he's specifically been able to reign it in on pitches outside the strike zone given that minimal chase rate over the last 10 days. Interestingly, though, he hasn't been able to utilize it in a manner beyond simply drawing walks. And that's where the distinction lies. Willi Castro has not registered a hard hit ball in play despite the more valuable outcomes since stepping into more regular duty in Kyle Tucker's absence. Not that there isn't value in what Castro is doing at present; he's drawn a walk in each game he's played as a right fielder (save for the first one on September 2). He's also scored four runs over this stretch as a result of him being more of a fixture on the basepaths since Castro is, technically, an above-average baserunner (0.6 BsR per FanGraphs). There is, also, a certain reality attached to this in that if Willi Castro is this type of hitter at the plate, then he presents the Cubs with tremendous value. This is a guy with a career ISO of .140 and a wRC+ of 96. His walk rate for his career is under seven percent. The Cubs acquired him because he's a versatile defensive player on a shallow bench who can hit a little bit. Not the other way around. So, he doesn't actually have to do more than he's doing right now. Sure, an approach that manifests in frequent quality contact and impact in any given night's box score would be nice. But the Cubs have that elsewhere (at least on paper). Castro's plate discipline yielding walks by the bushel, in conjunction with his solid on-base skills, make this version of him somewhat ideal for the Cubs as the postseason draws closer. View full article

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images It's entirely possible that you, dear reader, have found it difficult to invest emotionally in the Chicago Cubs over the course of the last several months. The underperformance certainly doesn't help. While they're not alone in their struggles to accrue wins consistently among their contending adversaries, the underperformance permeating throughout the roster can pin down such emotion. The team's inability to maintain any level of transparency regarding their process around player health (see: Kyle Tucker's calf) could be another factor. There are others, of course. But the purpose of this piece isn't to dwell on those. Instead, Wednesday morning's announcement that the team will bring Anthony Rizzo back into the fold as an organizational ambassador following his sudden (albeit, probably expected) retirement offers us a temporary reprieve from any grievance that might be lingering and, subsequently, stalling that emotional investment. In fact, the report that the team will honor Rizzo in a ceremony at Wrigley Field this weekend to mark the transition could serve to ignite those struggling to uncover the positive vibes and propel them in the entirely opposite direction. Statistically, you're not going to find Rizzo's name too frequently across the various leaderboards in the history of the Cubs' organization. He ranks sixth in home runs (242) and 10th in extra-base hits (538). Beyond that, it's a smattering of lists you don't necessarily want to be a part of. First in hit-by-pitches (165), eighth in strikeouts (871), 10th in double plays grounded into (112). But little of that seems to matter, especially when one considers the accolades. A three-time All-Star. A four-time Gold Glove recipient. A vote-getter for the Most Valuable Player award in five separate seasons, including fourth-place finishes in each of 2015 and 2016. There's an arbitrary nature inherent in certain baseball awards, but that Rizzo was able to have his name called for, or, at least, adjacent to multiple still speaks to his importance to the organization at an inflection point in its history. The acquisition of Anthony Rizzo always did feel like a turning point. When the Cubs hired Theo Epstein in October of 2011, it wasn't long before the revamped front office acquired a player immensely familiar to Epstein and Jed Hoyer, the latter of whom acquired Rizzo when Epstein was still in Boston and Hoyer was running his own shop in San Diego. By January of 2012, Rizzo was a Cub, headed to the North Side in exchange for fellow deal-headliner Andrew Cashner. Along with the transparency of their new team president, Rizzo's arrival served as an immediate injection of vibes. Not that the team was ready to immediately start anew solely on the merits of their new first baseman. The team lost 101 games in 2012 (he appeared in 87). They lost 96 in 2013. Another 89 losses followed in 2014. But, by the time the team was ready to contend with their newfound core, it was Rizzo that served as the de facto captain of a team that included long-hyped prospects Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, and Kyle Schwarber (among... others). He'd experienced the losing and the growing that sometimes accompanies it. Rizzo led the team in bWAR that year (6.4) and trailed only Bryant in 2016 (5.8) as the team ended their 108-year World Series drought. As was the case in those early years and for the remainder of his time in Chicago, Rizzo wasn't the standout. He finished second in WAR to Bryant again in 2017 (4.7) before his game started to show some early signs of regression, taking a total backseat to a player like Báez before the decade was over. But the vibes. An emotional wreck. Tarp catches. Striking out Freddie Freeman. Chasing Freddie Freeman down on the basepaths. The parade speech. To say nothing of his works within the city, including a multi-million dollar donation to Lurie Children's Hospital among myriad other contributions both in Chicago and New York. Rarely did his name leap out and scream at you from the stat sheet outside of those prime seasons, but there was an energy that Rizzo carried that died out quite a lot when he and his fellow "core" members were gone by the middle of 2021. It never should have ended the way that it did. The Cubs, on an organizational level, have been reckoning with that process in the years since. One could argue that they're still not there, especially given how the past few months have gone. It's exactly that context that leaves the return of Anthony Rizzo as much more than a simple feel-good story of a former player rejoining the club in a symbolic fashion. Instead, this is something that actually matters. In the name of vibes, of course. This is an organization that lost a legend in Ryne Sandberg earlier this year. It was an absolute devastation to the franchise, the fanbase, and the city (even to someone such as myself who was only conscious long enough to merely perceive the latter portion of his career). Compound that with injuries, inconsistent play, and upside failing to be realized from the present roster, and there's a real exhaustion that begins to take hold. While it was certainly a joyous occasion seeing Sammy Sosa back in the mix (now on multiple occasions in '25) and having Derrek Lee join him as part of the team's Hall of Fame induction, there's also an entire generation of fane that are much more intimately familiar with Rizzo than either of Sosa or Lee. To say nothing of how much has happened in the world over the past decade. Rizzo's return is an emotional victory in an entirely different way. You're obviously not going to replace the void left by Sandberg, whether as a tangibly accomplished player or as a more abstract, ceremonial presence post-career. Still, the fact that Rizzo possessed the vibe and leadership that he did from the jump on the field and has done the work he has in Chicago away from it makes the value of his presence almost unquantifiable. It's also a chance to work in the direction of recovering some of the magic lost when this team decided to dump just about everyone who stepped to the plate or on the mound in 2016. It's all of it. There's a healing factor, on multiple levels. There's a comfort factor. In a season where it's become increasingly difficult to grasp either, it just feels damn good to have Anthony Rizzo around again. View full article

Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images In a completely objective view, Carson Kelly is having a fine offensive season. It's the best of his career, in fact. Kelly carries a .255/.344/.455 line, a 17.9% strikeout rate, an 11.5% strikeout rate, and a 125 wRC+ across the stat sheet. Those marks stand as the best of his career, save for a 2019 on-base percentage that was slightly higher and a couple of years with a touch higher walk rate. Among the 21 backstops with at least 350 plate appearances to their name, Kelly sits fourth in wRC+ and in the top 5-7 just about everywhere else that isn't batting average. So not only has he been excellent by his own standards, he's been elite by the standard set by the position's production in the broader context of the league. Sure, some of it's carried by his scorching start to the year (a 257 wRC+ through the end of April), but even since the start of May, his OPS is a very respectable .694. There is, however, also an interesting trend starting to develop in his game as we reach the final stretch. Since August 25—a somewhat arbitrary date, but it gives a decent-enough sample in going back to Kelly's last 38 plate appearances—Kelly is hitting only .206, while striking out almost 27 percent of the time. What he is doing, though, is hitting for power. Over that same stretch, Kelly's ISO sits at .353, and he's hit four home runs. The latter figure is tied for the team lead while the former sits nearly 50 points ahead of the Cubs' second-place hitter in that timeframe (Ian Happ, at .309). All of these are classic hallmarks of a guy selling out for power. The concept of "selling out" in order to get the ball to travel may or may not serve as a bit of an oversimplification here. We'll circle back to those. But there are a number of trends that would indicate damage is what's on Kelly's mind each time he steps to the plate. The first thing worth noting is just the general trend of slug: Kelly's production on the slug slide has been on the visible upswing so far in September, accounting for 26 of those 38 PA we're discussing. Case in point: four of his six overall hits in September have found their way into the seats. That's hardly surprising, though, when you consider what the bat's doing. Attack angle is a new metric on the scene. For the uninitiated, it refers to the angle at which the barrel of the bat is traveling (relative to the ground) at the moment of contact. This is Kelly's throughout 2025: Kelly's attack angle is at 14° in September, easily the steepest angle with which he's worked this year. Steeper attack angle often begets a steeper launch angle, so it's probably not going to come as any sort of surprise that Kelly's launch angle looks like it does right now: Factor in the pull rate: And you have a very clear trend beginning to emerge. Attack angle is a timing metric, essentially; it tells us how much the hitter has gotten his bat working up through the hitting zone by the time they reach the contact point. Every swing starts downhill, as the barrel sweeps behind a batter and heads for a place in front of them. Knowing a player's attack angle (especially in the context of that player's usual number) tells us how long the barrel has been rising by the time the ball arrives. It pairs with another metric, attack direction, which gives the angle of travel of the barrel relative to the playing field, instead of to the diamond. Kelly's attack direction has also moved significantly, and here, the trend is a bit cleaner and more sudden. A negative attack direction is one oriented to the hitter's pull field, so this is telling us that Kelly has moved dramatically toward getting around the ball more. This isn't the same as his pull rate, which we looked at above, but they're closely related, of course. He's getting to the ball with his bat both going up more steeply and around the ball a bit more. As you'd guess, that means he's catching the ball farther out in front of his body. As you might not guess, but will learn to, this also means his swing is a bit flatter, in one sense. Wait. We just said he's steeper. You can't be flatter and steeper at the same time, can you? Well, plainly, yes. Kelly's steeper barrel trajectory at contact is partially a result of his barrel tilting less as he brings it around and into the hitting zone. His swing tilt is 32° this month, the flattest it's been in any month of the season. That means that he's bringing the bat flatter through the hitting zone, rather than having the barrel a bit farther below his hands. He's intentionally going out to create that extra pull and maintain the lift, even though that might open him up to more manipulations of timing The dynamics of the swing are directly responsible for the increased power output. What's interesting about this trend, though, is that his actual approach hasn't changed in the way that one might expect. This is where we get to the idea of "selling out" for power as an oversimplification—at least in the sense that we can't blindly call it that. Kelly's swing rate is actually at its lowest rate in an individual month this season (40.2%). His chase rate did jump a fair bit in August, but has since come back down (21.1%). You'd expect a player who was legitimately selling out to end up being a little bit more aggressive than we've seen Kelly in this most recent stretch. That side of the approach would leave us hesitant to make any kind of declaration about selling out, except for one extremely important factor that we've neglected to mention. Kelly's whiff rate has skyrocketed. At 29.7%, it's at its highest point of the year, easily eclipsing the 24.5% mark from June. It is, of course, manifesting on the chase side (half his swings on balls out of the zone are coming up empty), but where it's especially prominent is inside the strike zone. Within the zone, Kelly is swinging and missing at a 24.1% rate. That's a stark figure, and his highest in an individual stretch since September 2019. Cruciall, all of this is still happening over a very small sample. We're talking about 38 plate appearances or, in the case of September on its own, 26 of them. The primary concern is what it's doing to his walk rate, where he's now doing under 8 percent of the time, despite the low swing rate we just touched on. When you whiff as much as he's whiffing right now, you can't always fight off the pivotal pitch and earn an eventual free pass. Nor is swinging as steeply and hitting the ball as high as he is right now conducive to getting hits on balls in play. That's, in turn, feeding into his .263 OBP over this stretch (which is also partially pinned down by a .143 BABIP). If there is a certainty in all of this, it's that we need more data to not only see this as a surefire trend, but also consider the impact of such a trend within the current iteration of the Cubs' offensive production. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Pete Crow-Armstrong's 2025 season was etched into Chicago Cubs lore several months ago. It's easy to forget that, given how things have gone since. But after being the fourth-fastest player -- regardless of organization -- to reach a 25-25 season back in July (and the fastest Cub to do so), it was clear that Crow-Armstrong was doing something that has rarely been seen from an organizational standpoint. The Cubs have had powerful hitters and the occasional demon on the basepaths, but not in a particularly high volume on one side or the other. And certainly not at once. To put Crow-Armstrong's 2025 season in its own context, there are 22 players this season that have hit more than the 28 homers he has on the books as of this writing. None of those hitters, however, has eclipsed 30 steals. That is, of course, except Crow-Armstrong and his 32 swipes. Only Juan Soto's 29 comes close, followed by Jazz Chisholm Jr. at 27, and then a host of players residing farther down the leaderboard. In short, the power-speed combination is Pete Crow-Armstrong first, everyone else later. Against his big league counterparts, Crow-Armstrong's output in 2025 reads as similar to where he stands in the broader context of the organization's history. At present, he sits 75th on the Cubs' all-time leaderboard on the home run front for a single season. Only once, however, has someone ahead of him on that list stolen more than the 32 he's swiped this far. What is worth exploring regardless, though, is whether we've seen a hitter top the Cubs in each category in a given season, in the same way Crow-Armstrong is doing now. Interestingly, the most recent example in the team's history is a player forever connected to Crow-Armstrong: Javier Báez. Drawing comparisons to Báez that extend beyond the trade for one another back in 2021, Crow-Armstrong is now primed to be the first person since El Mago to lead the team in each category. Báez led the way with 34 homers and 21 steals in 2018, when he finished second in NL MVP voting. Anthony Rizzo nearly did so as well in 2015, leading all Cubs with 31 home runs but falling three steals short of Dexter Fowler's 20. Before Baéz, Alfonso Soriano was also almost able to accomplish the feat in 2008 but came up three steals short of Ryan Theriot's team lead in steals. Instead, we have to look to a lower steal volume to find the only other time it's been done since the turn of the century. Derrek Lee was able to do it in 2005 when he hit 46 homers and stole just 15 bases. Speaking of recent Cubs Hall of Fame inductees, there's a healthy Sammy Sosa component to all of this. That legendary 1998 season in which Sosa hit 66 home runs? He also stole 18 bases, which stood alone atop the leaderboard for the team that year. He also did it during the 1993 season (33 homers, 36 steals) and in 1995 when he went for 36 home runs and 34 steals. There was a near-miss for Sosa in each of 1996 and 1997, too, but he fell short of Shawon Dunston and Brian McRae in the steals game each year, respectively. It's easy to forget how good Sosa was on the basepaths in the earlier portion of his career, but he possessed exactly that power-speed combo we're talking about. A list such as this would be incomplete without Ryne Sandberg, as well. Similar to Sosa, Sandberg had a smattering of years where he was in the mix for the team lead in both. His ability to serve as a two-way threat was most present in 1990, when he topped out at 40 homers and 25 steals, the latter of which was tied with Dunston for the team lead. He'd also done it in 1992 (26 homers, 17 steals) and in kind of an inverse way a few years earlier in 1985, when he hit 26 home runs and swiped 54 bags. The wild thing is that running back 40 years brings us to what is effectively the end of the list. The mid-20th century doesn't feature much in the way of power-speed blends, despite some standouts on either side. Realistically, you'd have to go back to the 1880s to see it done again. Which puts into perspective just how rare Pete Crow-Armstrong's potential feat actually is (of course, he has to complete it first). The steal side of things is essentially wrapped up for Crow-Armstrong. Kyle Tucker's 25 is the runner-up to his total, with Nico Hoerner sitting one more back at 24. Tucker's lingering calf iinjury is likely to pin down that number throughout September as the Cubs ease him back in, and Hoerner's only stolen five bases since the beginning of August, leaving his pace in doubt. The team's steal title is all but sewn up for the center fielder. Things aren't quite as sure on the power side, however. Seiya Suzuki trails Crow-Armstrong by just one and Michael Busch is behind by two. None have been particularly impressive in the second half, but Crow-Armstrong's absence of power in the second half is notable given how narrow the gap is. So, it stands to reason that he may join the ranks of near-misses before the month comes to a close. Or he could enter a group of names that includes the likes of Sandberg, Sosa, Lee, and Báez. Not too bad, if it comes to fruition. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images From the outset, the outfield seemed like the most settled unit for the 2025 Chicago Cubs. The trio of Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Kyle Tucker was going to be a tough one to move (barring injury), with Seiya Suzuki ready to step in for work as a fourth outfielder. This, naturally, led to some questions as to the future of two of the team's top prospects, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara. Between the two, Caissie began to make an urgent case for himself as the temperature climbed. Turning in a 142 wRC+ and some massive power figures (.277 ISO) with Iowa, the banging on the big-league door became rather loud as the summer progressed. Despite some trade chatter in connection with controllable pitching, the team held on to Caissie and called him up earlier this month. To date, Caissie has gotten work across eight games at the major-league level. Three of those have been as a pinch-hitter, one (his debut) was as a designated hitter, and three came in relief of Kyle Tucker during his "reset." As the early results across his first 20 plate appearances have been solid (115 wRC+, .211 ISO), the fans' clamor for regular duty has become more pointed. However, that same question persists: when and where do you play him? It's actually not a particularly difficult question to answer. All three starting outfielders are healthy, with the weekend series in Anaheim showcasing a return to form for Tucker and (to an extent) Crow-Armstrong. That leaves two options. Either you're playing him in left in relief oHapp, or you're rolling him out as a DH, to get Suzuki a reset of his own. In the latter's case, however, the process is still manifesting—as it always has. It's something of a flawed process, in that Suzuki is likely far too patient at the plate, but it's a process, nonetheless. The hope is that luck starts falling his way with a little more regularity, and you take the occasional strikeout looking in favor of the on-base and power output he was demonstrating earlier in the year. That leaves just one option. Anecdotally, there's been a bit of a weird thing transpiring on the Marquee Network broadcasts and social media at large: they keep declaring that Ian Happ is starting to round into form. The issue with that line of thinking is that, at this point, it remains unequivocally false. Happ's full-season numbers are the worst he's turned in since 2021. He's at a wRC+ of just 103, with a slash that reads .226/.330/.380. He's been almost entirely propped up by his walk rate (13.4%) since the start of the year, with the slug dissolving in a way that we haven't seen at any point during his career; a .154 ISO represents a career low, by 15 points. Couple that with baserunning concerns wrought by an apparent speed decline, and one starts to wonder how the veteran continues to draw regular work over Caissie. His glove is an asset in left field, but that's not a defense-first position. The very notion of a resurgent Happ is an exercise in drawing your preferred endpoints. After an atrocious (.179/.304/.333) July, he's been markedly better in August (.217/.353/.333), but notice that the righthand column hasn't moved. No one was especially happy with the way he'd hit through the end of June (.241/.331/.403), but he was better then than he's been in either month since. Happ's own confidence in a return to form sounds as rooted in his manager having assured him he'll play as in any key adjustments. That state of affairs can't last, though. Not when you've got such massive upside in Caissie, and so little left in Happ. Everything with Caissie is in the smallest of samples, so far. But the offensive output has been solid, with plenty of room for growth. The strikeout rate is high (25.0%), but he's compensated well with the power output (that .211 ISO) courtesy of a 14.3% barrel rate and a 74.7 MPH average swing speed. Even better is the fact that he runs well—his 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed checks in just slightly behind Suzuki and Willi Castro—while providing steady defense in his own right. Happ and Suzuki pose similar dilemmas, when evaluating them as candidates to lose time to Caissie. Both are overly patient hitters in the midst of pretty intense struggles. However, Happ's power output remains fairly limited, on top of his other shortcomings being demonstrated. If Suzuki gets right, the upside is higher—and his recent track record gives us more reason to believe that’s possible. He's also a righty batter, whereas Happ (a switch-hitter who's better as a lefty) overlaps with Caissie more in a profile sketch. As we know what the upside is and we know what the swing data says Caissie can provide, there is only thin justification to run Happ out in left field over the youngster. Caissie's defensive chops have closed the gap on his veteran teammate, too. It's time to take a chance on the rookie. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images What a long and strange year it's been for the Chicago Cubs. Perhaps for Seiya Suzuki more than anyone. Just about everywhere you look on the stat sheet, you're bound to find a new career benchmark for the Cubs' designated hitter, at least in the underlying metrics. His barrel rate (18.1 percent), average exit velocity (92.0), and hard-hit rate (50.0) each represent the top mark of his career to date, and some by a fairly wide margin. He's been able to jump his isolated power by more than 40 points off his previous career-high (.241), parlaying that contact quality into strong results to the pull side (24.6 Pull AIR%). And yet, something feels entirely off with Suzuki at this point in the year. His batting average sits at just .245. His on-base percentage is at .318. Those are both career-lows, and not by a small margin. His wOBA, despite the heavy increase on the power side, has dropped more than 20 points off what he turned in in 2024 (.343). Things have only gotten worse since the All-Star break, too. Thus far in the second half, Suzuki is hitting only .181, reaching base at a mere .315 clip, and has a wRC+ of 75 to his name. His ISO has fallen by nearly 200 points off his first half output, checking in at just .086 as of this writing. His wOBA is only .274, representing an even 90-point drop from the first half figure. There are a few factors in the shape of batted ball trends that are likely contributing to such an intense decline from what looked like a career-season type of trajectory in the first half. But, as much of this doesn't really jive with what we should be seeing given the under-the-hood components, there are also some that are not quite as tangible in their ability to explain. Outcomes come first, as there's certainly a luck component here for Suzuki; his BABIP alone is indicative of a player running into some brutal fortune. After a .300 average on balls in play prior to the break, Suzuki's second half BABIP sits just .227. It's not Kyle Tucker bad (.203 BABIP), but it's still one of the 22 worst figures thus far in half No. 2. Keeping with the batted ball concept, much of that can likely be attributed to a higher volume of groundballs. His 40.3 GB% isn't drastic, but it's a roughly 13 percent increase from his first half figure. His line drive rate, specifically, has worn the brunt of that shift, as it's fallen by about 10 percent on its own. In a somewhat simplified sense, line drive contact drives BABIP, while it's hard to combat the groundball side in that regard. So, determining why the luck seems to have evaporated for Suzuki isn't a particularly difficult task. Navigating why it's happening, though, isn't quite as simple; there isn't necessarily a specific thing within the approach that represents a defining issue. At least, not with any certainty. Off-speed pitches have been the source of a chunk of Suzuki's groundball contact in the last two months. He made groundball contact against that pitch type 50 percent of the time in July and is at over 71 percent in August. The problem with that analysis is that, in July, it was the pitch type at which he swung at with the lowest frequency, and in the two years prior to '25, it represented his lowest output of groundball contact. So, while he's swinging at a great deal of off-speed in August and turning in a high volume of groundballs as a result, we can't state with any level of confidence that his offensive downturn is purely because of those offerings. The zone itself could offer some insight. The following is Suzuki's zone profile in terms of Swing% from the season's first half: And here's the second half: It's obviously a lower volume of pitches overall, but the rates in the lower areas of the zone are higher in certain respects. Conventional wisdom tells us it's harder to elevate pitches down in the zone, so it's only natural that a higher rate of swings in those lower areas are going to sap Suzuki of some of his ability to lean into that Pull AIR% jump that was such a primary factor in his first half success. But, it's not as if those rate increases are across the board. They only exist in certain areas within that lower portion of the zone. Again, we're not really gaining any level of certainty here. Instead, our surest answer might just lie in his overall approach to each plate appearance. Earlier this month, we examined Suzuki's potential role in the Cubs' collective decline on the offensive side of the ball. There wasn't anything that allowed us to discern he was doing anything differently that contributed to the struggle of the group. But, being himself was also a problem in a broad sense. That remains the case here. If anything, it's actually gotten worse. Suzuki's first half swing rate checked in at 42.3 percent, while his chase rate came in at 27.7 percent. Each of those are some of the lowest percentages in all of baseball, leaving Suzuki as one of the more patient hitters in the game. In the second half, you're looking at a Swing% of 37.0 and a swing rate outside the zone of 19.7 percent. So, he's gotten more patient and in a pretty serious regard. The result has been more contact, particularly inside of the zone. His Z-Contact% is actually up about seven percent (92.4) in the second half. However, that's in conjunction with a contact rate outside of the zone that has fallen almost 13 percent (63.6 percent down to 50.8 percent between the two halves). What's happening speaks to what we discussed in looking at Suzuki as part of the bigger picture of the team's lineup: he's pinning himself down by limiting his own opportunities. In that previous piece, we discussed run value. Specifically, run value in leverage spots. Taking leverage out of the equation this time, this is where Suzuki falls from a visual standpoint: The only area in which Suzuki demonstrates any sort of aggression is over the heart of the plate. Even a slight expansion of the zone leans much heavier on the take side. That leaves him devoid of opportunities to create additional offensive value to a rather serious extent. A -16 run value on the edges of the plate is indicative of a player far too patient. Not only is he not serving as a beneficiary of borderline calls, his continued to refusal to expand the zone even slightly is impossible to ignore as a factor in these second half struggles. There's just no margin for error when you're living exclusively over the heart of the plate and nowhere else. So, while there are some factors we can consider in matters of pitch type and the zone, the overall approach remains the only one which we can deploy with any certainty in explaining this particular period of struggle for Seiya Suzuki. Unfortunately, it being a factor so embedded in his game at this point means it's unlikely to change. And you never want a player's approach to get markedly worse. But, there's also such a thing as being too patient. We've seen it often with Suzuki, but we've never seen it occur with his power potential quite this high. As he's gotten more patient, he's demonstrated the power less frequently. It's a problem, and as pitchers have adjusted to his new life as a pull-side power wizard in 2025, he's thus far failed to adjust in turn. View full article

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images It wouldn't be an overreaction to declare that the Chicago Cubs have been one of the worst offensive teams in Major League Baseball since the start of July. In fact, it'd be a rather objective observation, at least from a pure run production standpoint. Since July 1, the Cubs rank 21st in the league runs scored, with 146. They're at 4.4 runs per game over that stretch. Their power has waned, with a .169 isolated power number that ranks only 15th (despite sitting fourth for all of 2025, at .184). Their contact quality has cratered, with a Hard-Hit% (38.1) that sits 27th over that stretch. They're still reaching base at a reasonable clip (.316 on-base percentage), but the other issues have prevented them from doing anything of value with such a consistent presence on the basepaths. Woes with runners in scoring position run at the center of what has driven the team's run production into the ground; a .230 average in such situations ranks 23rd since the start of last month. It's not so much that they're striking out, but more so that they're failing to create meaningful contact in those moments. They have a fly ball rate of about 38 percent and a groundball rate of roughly 44 percent with runners in scoring position, both of which sit inside of the league's 13-highest rates. Compound those contact trends with one of the league's lowest hard contact rates, and you sort of have your answer as to why that has represented such an issue in the last six or so weeks. There hasn't been a shortage of culprits in sapping the life out of a team that had been so good at the plate for the first three months of the year, either. It certainly doesn't help that the majority of the lineup has lost a grip on their approach. But when you look at a player like Seiya Suzuki, you get a sense of just how bad things have gotten for this Cubs lineup on a game-to-game basis. Or do you? As the premise above states, there's a sharp difference between what the eye test has to offer and what reality actually exists on the field. Suzuki's case is intensely reflective of that contrast, especially if you're ready to put some of the issues since the start of July on his shoulders. In certain respects (read: power), Suzuki is having his best season as a member of the Cubs. While a 129 wRC+ checks in as only his second-best campaign after a 137 mark in 2024, he's been able to tap into the pull side to really unleash his power. As of this writing, Suzuki has .258 ISO brought to fruition largely by a Pull AIR% that sits 10 points higher than any figure he'd turned in previously (25.6). And while we should be basking in the emergence of the kind of power bat that the Cubs were lacking in previous years, there simply has not been enough production in between the displays of power to offer something consistent from a middle-of-the-order bat. At the same time, there are myriad factors beneath the surface. Many of them are not even identifiable at this rate and those same factors still contest what the eye test might tell us. That doesn't mean we can't try. The first failure of the eye test exists within the approach. Suzuki is, obviously, one of the more patient hitters in the league, with a swing rate that ranks within the 21 lowest in the league (41.4 percent). A natural byproduct of that is more called strikes and deep counts with little margin for error. Suzuki ranks 17th in the league in called strike rate (20.1 percent), and, anecdotally, we've seen Suzuki take a called strike three more times than any of us could possibly hope to count. It's a trend that feels more present as the team has struggled to score runs. There's certainly a tradeoff there if you're able to parlay that patience into walks and impact contact. Since the start of July, Suzuki has done the former; his 10.0 percent walk rate actually exceeds his mark for the season (9.6 percent). Not much has changed in terms of the overall discipline, though. He's expanded the zone with slightly more regularity, but the plate discipline numbers remain fairly similar to what he turned in prior to July 1. He's still somehow he's lost some juice on the impact side, however. The explanation for this is not quite clear. Suzuki turned in a .283 ISO across the first three months of the season. Since the top of July, it's just 179. That's a massive dip without a clear-cut explanation. The pitch types at which Suzuki is swinging have fluctuated all year in a way that isn't new. And his zone profile looks quite similar between the stretch through June 30 and the one since. All of this is to say that the approach has remained fairly steady with only minor blips. You could make an argument that Suzuki's patience is a flaw inherent in his game when it runs too far, but it's not a contributing factor within this recent stretch. We'll circle back to this concept, though. Eye test failure No. 2 lives around the perception that Suzuki is part of the team's issues with runners in scoring position. Since July 1, the Cubs have the second-lowest hard-hit rate in the sport (25.8 percent). Their wRC+ as a team with RISP is a mere 81, which ranks 25th. But this isn't a problem to which Suzuki is contributing. Since that same point in time, Suzuki has hit .269 and reached base at a .394 clip in RISP situations. Both figures trail only Nico Hoerner among the team's regulars. Further, he's been identical in terms of his strikeout and walk rates (18.2 percent). There are issues with his contact, including a line drive rate under 10 percent, but the outcomes have actually been completely fine. In fact, in Statcast's Run Value, Suzuki trails only Kyle Tucker in value tied to leverage spots. And here's where we return to the approach: This is where we might find one possible criticism of Suzuki in that he has gathered the majority of his value in pitches over the heart of the plate. He's been able to capitalize on that sweet spot, but less so when confronted with the edges of the plate (or, in this case, the shadow). Given that, it stands to reason that Suzuki could benefit from a more consistent expansion of the zone. Worst case scenario, you strike out whiffing instead of looking, which is the same outcome that we often see from Suzuki in a random plate appearance anyway. But this is a broader concept than anything that might be revealed since the start of July. As such, what this does is support the idea that any flaw within his game does tend to exist within his patience. Discipline can serve as a bridge too far in creating offensive production, and we've seen Suzuki run into poor outcomes wrought by that patience. At the same time, this doesn't lend itself to the idea that Suzuki is a fixture within the problem of the Cubs offense at large since the start of July. If anything, he's stayed the course. Which means that we're not looking at a version of Seiya Suzuki that is hurting the Cubs during this recent stretch. He's liable to be a, well, liability at any point during the year. More often than not, you take the overwhelming patience because of the outcomes he's shown capable of providing. But, the completely regular version of Suzuki isn't a player that is going to help the Cubs to a quick turnaround. The meticulousness won't allow it. View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images As we come upon the completion of Dansby Swanson's third full season as a member of the Chicago Cubs, we know enough about certain areas of his offensive game to draw firm conclusions. The most sweeping observation about Swanson as a hitter is that there is a month-to-month variance in his performance. He's prone to incredibly torrid stretches of play that are quickly wiped out by the time he spends on the opposite end of the spectrum. Much of his inherent streakiness is borne out of a need to dial in on fastballs as a foundational component in his success. When he manages the zone and has a keen eye in matters of pitch type, he finds success. When he doesn't, he's generally expanding the zone in favor of only that pitch or just loses his grip on it altogether. We're currently seeing a version of Dansby Swanson that is entirely of the latter variety. Swanson's 2025 has been a disappointment on that side of the ball, even by his modest standards. His slash includes an average of .250, an on-base percentage of .297, and a slugging percentage of .415. His strikeout rate, at 28.0 percent, is the highest of his career, while a 6.6 percent walk rate represents his lowest. He's managed just enough power (.165 ISO) to stay relevant in a stat like wOBA (.308), but he's very obviously being pinned down by a bit of a mess in the approach department. It's something that's very easily reflected in his strikeout and walk numbers alone, on a month-to-month basis: March/April: 29.1 K%, 6.7 BB% May: 23.4 K%, 9.9 BB% June: 25.0 K%, 5.8 BB% July: 32.7 K%, 5.1 BB% August: 36.0 K%, 0.0 BB% Since May, the strikeout rate has been steadily increasing while the walk rate has decreased. Say whatever you want about a smaller sample through ten days in August (as of this writing), the fact that Swanson has yet to draw a walk in the month speaks to the absence of control he's been able to demonstrate over the strike zone the longer the year has worn on. It's not a complicated puzzle to solve, either. Swanson has been aggressive to a fault. Here is his swing rate between the months in 2025: Swanson is at a 58 percent swing rate this month. That's the highest of any Cub and three points higher than even Pete Crow-Armstrong. Worse yet, Swanson's chase habits have spun out of control: Like the swing rate, the chase rate has risen steadily over the course of the season. His current August rate, at 36.8, trails only Willi Castro among regulars and is 10 points higher than Crow-Armstrong. When you're sitting that far ahead of Crow-Armstrong, the actual poster child for aggression at the plate, in swings and chase, there's a rather serious problem developing. Earlier in the year, we noted that Swanson was dialing in on fastballs to the point where he was expanding the zone in pursuit of them. He recognized fastball out of the hand, and it didn't matter where it was landing in the zone. He was swinging either way. That's not entirely what's happening this time around, as Swanson is swinging at nearly 80 percent of off-speed pitches. It's one thing to be dedicated to a specific pitch type to a fault, but another entirely to ramp up the aggression on a pitch whose flavor doesn't historically lend itself to positive outcomes for the individual hitter. Where this is really biting Swanson is in the RISP game. The Cubs, as a collective, have been rather bad with runners in scoring position lately. It's one of the primary factors in driving their offense into the ground and leading to this gap with Milwaukee in the National League Central standings. But Swanson has been an affront to the lineup in such situations. Among regulars, only Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have more plate appearances with runners in scoring position than Swanson's 129. His slash in those moments is .174/.227/.261. His wRC+ is a mere 33. The only names below him on the overall leaderboard in the latter department are ones like Gage Workman, Jon Berti, Nicky Lopez, and... Colin Rea. It certainly doesn't help—and is very much indicative of the problem at large—that his strikeout rate balloons to 33.3 in those 129 opportunities (five points higher than Crow-Armstrong, for what it's worth). Last week, we discussed the problems permeating the Cubs' lineup in matters of the approach. A handful of key hitters have been losing their grip on their own respective approaches, leading to a sharp decline in quality contact. The difference is that Dansby Swanson has never really had a grasp of it this year. We wrote about strikeout numbers piling up in April. The issues there have only compounded and created a spiral from which Swanson has never given himself an opportunity to emerge. That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that it can be fixed before the regular season's end. With the other regulars, there's at least a baseline to which they can return. Swanson's baseline now exists as a distant memory which not only leaves him as a sustained weak link in the lineup barring a significant change, but a possibly untenable presence in it beyond the remainder of this season. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images There's something fairly... agonizing about watching a team endure a stretch like the one in which the Chicago Cubs find themselves currently mired in. They've spent the 2025 campaign as one of the league's best offensive teams, yes. But. the days since the All-Star break have shown another, more intolerable side of what it looks like when offensive ineptitude strikes. The full-season leaderboard has the Cubs living among the elite. They're second in runs scored (581), third in wOBA (.330), and third in isolated power (.186). Their strikeout rate (20.3 percent), walk rate (8.8 percent), and baserunning acumen (7.6 BsR) all sit in the league's top 10. At 23.9 fWAR, no team has gotten more total value out of their position player group than the Cubs have this year. July 20 represented something of a shift for many of the team's regulars, however. That date, in itself, does not bear any special significance. But, it was as close as we could come to an inflection point for when this team started to struggle to score runs. Consider where the team stands over that two-ish week stretch. They're 21st in the league in runs scored (59 or 2.8 per game), 19th in on-base percentage (.311), and 24th in wOBA (.303). They've slipped to middle-of-the-road in each of their strikeout rate (23.0 percent) and walk rate (8.4 percent) while sitting 24th in ISO (.135). Where the team has made their hay for the whole season — at least when the offense is humming — is largely in the approach. They have one of the league's lowest chase rates (30.3 percent) against the fourth-highest in-zone swing rate (69.9 percent). Only five teams make contact at a higher rate than the Cubs (78.6 percent). They haven't made particularly hard contact, but they haven't had to. Instead, they traded bat speed for competitive swings and efficiency in squaring up contact. It was an idea we explored back at the beginning of June. At that point, you weren't going to find a Cub near the top of the bat speed leaderboard. But, the team was generating more squared-up contact than 26 of the teams in Major League Baseball. This is what that leaderboard looks like for the whole year to date, with the x-axis representing bat speed and the y-axis showcasing squared-up contact: This is just a visual of the same idea; slow (and short) swings that create quality contact courtesy of their ability to be selective at the plate. Since July 20, though, that ability to generate such contact with any regularity has disappeared: The Cubs' bats remain slow, but they've lost their way in squaring up the baseball. The source of why, however, is something of a mystery. The team has actually cut their chase rate (29.7) and bumped their zone swing rate ever-so-slightly (70.1). They're making slightly less contact (77.0), but it's a negligible difference. Where there's a stark contrast is in the quality of contact. Even the Cubs' modest 39.7 Hard-Hit% from the full year is down to 35.9; only Houston has a lower rate over this stretch than the Cubs. That's not nothing. All of that information does lend itself to a fairly simple explanation as to why these struggles are occurring. Roughly 80 percent of the team's contact has been a groundball or a fly ball. When you compound that with pretty soft contact overall, you're not going to find a lot of batted ball luck. The Cubs are at a .293 BABIP over this stretch. That part is clear-cut. How this is happening, however, represents a different question entirely. The approach hasn't really changed, but they've been stripped of any sort of efficiency in the type of contact they're making. This is the part where we break from the collective and start to look at the biggest culprits of the team's recent offensive woes. Here is where the Cubs sit as individuals in matters of bat speed and squared-up contact: The important thing isn't so much the individual numbers but the fact that almost everyone is at or above the average threshold in matters of squared-up contact. Dansby Swanson toeing the line and Ian Happ residing below it are not surprising considering the stretches we've seen each work through this year. Nor is Pete-Crow Armstrong given lack of contact against a high volume of swings. You kind of just have to take that for what it is at this point. For the most part, though, that's a number of Cubs faring well in creating efficient contact. It's also a stark contrast the the past couple of weeks: Note how much that horizontal red line shifted between the two visuals. Nico Hoerner continues to thrive in the efficient contact game. Kyle Tucker continues to generate something in the midst of struggles (though his inability to elevate is worthy of a separate discussion). Willi Castro has been in Chicago for five minutes. So, basically with the exception of Happ working his way to something respectable in efficiency, the party is really transpiring below that line, with mediocre outcomes for a number of different Cubs: Michael Busch, Carson Kelly, Seiya Suzuki, Crow-Armstrong, and Swanson. That this is the particular group is hardly a surprise for anyone watching the Cubs over these last two weeks. Busch is at a 28 wRC+ since July 20. Suzuki is at 42. Kelly and Swanson check in at 82 and 64, respectively. Crow-Armstrong is generating positive outcomes when he does make contact (sort of an issue lately), though, so he won't factor too much in the discussion here. Let's talk about the rest of that group: Busch's full-season swing rate (46.9 percent) is up 50.3 percent in this more recent stretch. His contact has shrunk from 75.9 percent to 68.8 while the whiff rate has jumped from 11.3 percent to 15.7. Suzuki has taken sort of the opposite approach. His swing rate over the last two weeks is down to just 36.1 (down from 41.6), and his contact rate is down about three percent, at 74.0. Kelly looks mostly similar, but he's been swinging at off-speed pitches at a higher rate the last two weeks. That's the pitch type against which he generates the least amount of quality contact. Swanson is a whole mess. His 35.4 chase rate is up nearly eight percent from his full-season rate, while his whiff rate has ballooned about five percent in its own right to 19.2 percent. There isn't a whole lot redeemable happening there. That all tells us that, above all, these approaches are a mess. Busch has expanded his zone at a higher rate and lost that sense of maturity as a hitter that we watched him develop since the start of last year. Suzuki has represented the inverse in becoming too patient. Kelly has a pitch type issue and Swanson has a *gestures broadly at everything* issue. The bad news is that juxtaposing this with the other problems manifesting within the Cubs lineup (Tucker's struggles with elevation, Crow-Armstrong swinging at just about everything even more than usual, etc.) is going to lead to the current stretch in which we see. The good news is that these problems appear to be entirely fixable. It's a reevaluation of the approach that's needed. Of course, the other bad news is that multiple hitters need to revamp their approaches effectively at the same time in order for the Cubs to rebound from this two-week period. Offenses ebb and flow over the course of a major league season. It's a natural part of the game. In this case, though, it's going to require the majority of the Cubs lineup to enhance their own individual situations in order to get back to the flow part of the adage. View full article