Matthew Trueblood

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images After an uneven rookie season, Matt Shaw has only a tenuous hold on the third-base job for the 2026 Chicago Cubs. Shaw comes with six more seasons of team control and will make a league-minimum salary for at least the next two years, and his defense improved by leaps and bounds over the course of 2025, but his bat is a shakier proposition. Thus, as the team tries to upgrade its roster for next season, one free agent in whom they've taken a noteworthy interest is a player with whom they flirted last offseason, as his free agency stretched into late January and early February: Alex Bregman. Sources with knowledge of the team's thinking confirmed to North Side Baseball what Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney reported at The Athletic. The Cubs are considering a version of their offseason where Bregman is the headline signee, which might mean trading Shaw (or other young hitters) to address their remaining need for a top-tier starting pitcher. However, they haven't yet made more than cursory contact with agent Scott Boras about signing Bregman. It should stay that way. Here, in a nutshell, is why. Last winter, the opportunity to sign Bregman as a free agent was rightfully tantalizing. He cost the Red Sox a draft pick and some international spending capacity, because he'd rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, but he signed a short-term deal and was always likely to opt out of it after 2025. Now, however, he's shopping for a truer long-term home. That doesn't make sense for the Cubs at the price Bregman is likely to command, because his power is probably fading in an irreversible way. Bregman consistently swung the bat around 71.5 miles per hour in 2024, even in a season when his power production sagged. In 2025, he started at roughly the same level, but it was considerably slower after he missed considerable time with a strained quad. It's possible that his true-talent swing speed didn't diminish much within the season, but it's highly likely that it's about to. Bregman will turn 32 years old just after Opening Day. As that chart from Tom Tango showed, at 32, hitters start losing bat speed at an accelerating rate. We're unlikely to see the former All-Star get back the bat speed he lost, even if he only lost it because of an injury from which he's now fully recovered. If Bregman swung the bat as fast as Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso, that wouldn't be so bad. Those sluggers are over-30 free agents this winter, but are in line for big deals because they have power that should remain well above average for the next few years. That just isn't true of Bregman. Based on the aging curve for bat speed, only two right-handed batters showed the ability to generate big power while swinging as slowly as Bregman is likely to swing in 2026: the Dodgers' Will Smith and new Orioles outfielder Taylor Ward. Baltimore traded a high-upside starter for Ward earlier this offseason, in Grayson Rodriguez, but that's because Rodriguez is a major, perennial injury risk—and because they only need to worry about Ward for one year, before he'll hit free agency. Expect Ward's market to be surprisingly cold next winter, because he'll be a power-oriented righty hitter with a slow swing, heading toward his mid-30s. That's what Bregman is right now. He made a world of sense on a short-term deal, but a source close to the longtime Astro said he's looking for a five-year contract this time around. He might have to settle for a four-year pact, but even that would likely pan out badly. He's not a power-only player, in that he makes contact at a very high rate and draws walks well, but Bregman is too small to project to hold onto his bat speed unusually well; too slow to hold onto much value on the bases, or to augment the upside of a balls-in-play, high-average profile for the medium-term future; and too weak-armed to stay at third base all the way through even a four-year engagement. If his market doesn't go where Bregman hopes, and he's available for under $100 million on a four-year deal, he fits the Cubs' needs. That would leave money free to bolster the rotation and the bullpen, while rounding out the lineup nicely. Certainly, if he ends up being open to another one-year deal, the Cubs should be willing to throw big money at him. If, however, he commands an annual average value over $30 million on a deal of three years or longer, the Cubs should stay away. He didn't go over a cliff in 2025 with the Red Sox, thanks to adjustments focused on pulling the ball in the air and banging balls off the Green Monster at Fenway Park. He might very well start a steep decline in 2026, though, and Wrigley Field doesn't offer the cushion against that kind of trouble that Fenway or Houston's Daikin Park do. The Cubs are unlikely to be as good in 2026 as they were in 2025. Bregman is the kind of player who could change that, but the type of deal he appears to want wouldn't allow them to do the other things they need to do to justify it. If Chicago wants a big bat in this free-agent market, they would be better off shelling out bigger bucks for Alonso or Bo Bichette. They would be even wiser to roll the dice and sign Kazuma Okamoto, out of NPB, instead—and to spend the attendant savings on a more robust upgrade of their pitching staff. Bregman was a perfect fit last year, and Jed Hoyer should have done more to bring him in. That golden opportunity has passed, and the Cubs should move on, rather than making a big-money mistake on a player heading into his twilight. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images The Cubs face a daunting challenge of pitching management for 2026. They should get Justin Steele back about halfway through the season, but they'll need to monitor and limit his workload. Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Cade Horton are all a full go for next season, but each missed time in 2025 with injuries, which increases the chances that they'll do so again next year. That's why they extended a qualifying offer to Imanaga, even after extending Colin Rea. It's why they're still looking for upgrades to a rotation that nominally boasts six or seven viable starters. Matthew Boyd will be another source of uncertainty in that group. He pitched 180 innings in the regular season and made three more starts in the playoffs, a year after making just eight regular-season appearances in a return from Tommy John surgery. Boyd wore down in the second half and hit the wall completely in October, and now, his 2026 season is scheduled for an early start. On Wednesday afternoon, Boyd made an appearance on Foul Territory, a popular web show and podcast, to announce his plans to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic next March. The last time the WBC was contested, Japan beat the United States in the final game, thanks largely to better pitching depth. With rare exceptions, Team USA has struggled to find high-end hurlers willing to risk the nudge to their odometer that comes from ramping up to high-intensity competition earlier. Boyd might only pitch twice during the tournament, but it will mean preparing more and earlier during the offseason and ramping up faster early in spring training. That will exacerbate the risk of fatigue from Boyd late in the season, and reduce the chances that he's still going strong come October. Thus, the Cubs have yet another reason to be ready; to be wary; and to load up on pitching. Steele will be more of a second-half factor. Jaxon Wiggins could be, too, if he stays healthy. Boyd might not be the only Cubs hurler to pitch in the WBC, though. It's very possible that Imanaga, Javier Assad and/or Daniel Palencia will also get the call. Every pitcher whom the team sends to the global tournament is one who's more likely to find trouble down the stretch. Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins have to be assiduous in continuing to add, so they can absorb whatever losses occur as the season wears on. In the meantime, this is further expansion for the Cubs' global brand, and more importantly, it's fun. The WBC is a delightful event, and although it might not be good for the MLB teams who allow their pitchers to participate, it's good that it exists (and continues to grow). Boyd's presence will make an exciting tournament even more so, and increases the chances of the United States reclaiming the title they last won in 2017. That, in itself, is reason to celebrate the news. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images As part of the most recent collective bargaining agreement between the players union and MLB, an annual bonus pool was created to pay players who accumulated significant on-field value and/or finished highly in balloting for the league's major awards, in seasons in which they did not yet qualify for arbitration. It was one small (and ultimately inadequate) way to shift money from highly paid veterans (often on the decline) and underpaid young stars of the game, and it's made a significant difference in the earning power of players over their first two or three years in the league. The bonuses paid to several dozen players were announced Tuesday, and three Cubs saw their 2025 earnings substantially boosted. Pete Crow-Armstrong, who was on the All-MLB second team and put up impressive totals in wins above replacement, earned an extra $1,206,207, which is just shy of double his salary for the season. Between that extra infusion of cash; winning a Gold Glove Award; a playoff share; and his massive marketability (which has already yielded some lucrative endorsement opportunities), Crow-Armstrong got much richer this year. Whatever leverage the Cubs hoped to wield in negotiations over a contract extension when they began them in the spring has evaporated. Crow-Armstrong is still in position to hit free agency relatively young, and he'll qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player in 2027. He's holding all the cards. Cade Horton got $500,000 for his runner-up finish in the Rookie of the Year voting, and made a total of $852,806 in bonuses after adding the amount he earned via WAR calculations. That's more than he made in salary, too, and he gets the non-monetary (but extremely lucrative) added benefit of getting a full year of service time for 2025, thanks to getting those Rookie of the Year votes. He's now set to become a free agent after 2030, just as Crow-Armstrong is. He, too, leaped forward in terms of his career earning potential this season, thanks to the new rules that came into effect in the last CBA. Nothing, however, can save the earning power of a late-blooming first baseman. Michael Busch, who arguably had the best season of any Cub, got just $483,108 for his efforts. This was Busch's age-27 season, and while he made the most of it, he's not eligible for arbitration until 2027, and can't become a free agent until the end of 2029. By then, he's likely to be moving out of his prime. The Cubs have little incentive to extend him, and he has little chance to make All-MLB teams or rack up WAR, because of his position and the way the statistics are calculated. He'll be grateful for the extra money, which will be over $500,000 once his playoff share is heaped on top of it, but Busch didn't hit the same kind of jackpot as his younger, more celebrated teammates—even though he had a tremendous breakout campaign. These initiatives—the bonus payments and the service-time rewards—are a great step forward for the game, giving young stars more leverage and more power. It only makes the Cubs' job harder, because extending Crow-Armstrong looks like a very expensive endeavor at this point. So be it. The team will have to either swallow its worries and make a splash, or accept the risks that come with going year to year with franchise cornerstones. In the meantime, for Crow-Armstrong, Horton and Busch, these are just desserts for a job extremely well done. View full article

Image courtesy of © Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs and right-handed reliever Phil Maton agreed to a two-year deal Friday night, according to a source familiar with the negotiation. The news was first reported by Michael Cerami, of Bleacher Nation, on Twitter. Maton, who will turn 33 next March, gets two guaranteed years on the pact, and the Cubs will hold an option for 2028. Having pitched for four different teams over the last two seasons, Maton is the classic peripatetic middle reliever. He comes to the Cubs off a career year with the Cardinals and Rangers, wherein he posted a 2.79 ERA and struck out 32.3% of opposing batters in 61 1/3 innings. He boasts one of the league's highest-spin curveballs, with two-plane break and a huge velocity differential from his fastball. He's pushed his usage rate on the curve as high as 40% in one season, and in 2025, the hook was actually his primary pitch. Maton does not throw hard. His preferred flavor of fastball is a hard cutter that sits 90-91, which he began to feature in 2023. He works vertically with the cutter and curve from a low arm slot, and uses his sinker and sweeper to go east and west to keep hitters honest. He last walked fewer than 9% of batters in a season before the pandemic hit, but his strikeout rate generally sits north of 25% and he keeps the ball in the park well. For no playoff-caliber team can Maton be the relief ace, but he was dazzling in 2025. He's a good bet to continue striking out hitters at an above-average rate, even with tepid velocity, and the Cubs badly needed some swing-and-miss stability in their relief corps. His fastball shape suits what the Cubs like, and his non-traditional style brought him down into the team's price range. He won't be the last move Jed Hoyer makes to reinforce the bullpen, though. Once he's added to the 40-man roster, the Cubs will still have nine open places on it. They have to re-sign or replace the likes of Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge, Drew Pomeranz, and Caleb Thielbar—in effect, all but one of their trusted relievers from the second half of 2025. Maton is a good head start on that, but only a start. Maton did not make the DiamondCentric Top 50 free agents list, published earlier this week, but did appear at the tail end of two of the lists assembled by writers collaborating on that project. The most similar pitcher to him on the top 50 was Emilio Pagán, whom we projected to earn $15 million over two years. Look for Maton's deal to fall in that price range. View full article

That's a great call, and the Cubs have had interest in Duran in the past. Could actually happen. Otherwise, though, I'm not sure the right player is out there to make it happen, as strong an idea as it is.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Under no circumstances will the Cubs non-tender Justin Steele or Javier Assad Friday. Though Steele is unlikely to make it back from Tommy John surgery until midsummer, he's a vital part of their medium-term pitching plans. Both he and Assad, who is arbitration-eligible for the first time and projects to make less than $2 million, have trade value even if the Cubs ultimately build a pitching staff into which they no longer fit. That doesn't mean there won't be news about one or both of them before the end of the day. Chicago could try to strike a two-year deal with Steele, who is set to hit free agency after 2027, anyway. That would give them cost certainty for the balance of the term of Steele's team control, and let Steele dispense with worrying about his earning power as he rehabs throughout the winter and spring from his operation this April. Often, with players who are sure things to receive a contract, the deadline that spurs action on deals like that is the one for exchanging arbitration figures (which will be on Jan. 8, 2026), but getting Steele's salary figured out early would give the team more clarity as they plot an active pursuit of further pitching upgrades. Assad is less likely to settle on a salary Friday, but in his first year in the system, he has relatively little earning power. The Cubs might elect to lean on him and agree to terms early, if only so there's a fixed salary associated with him when (inevitably) his name comes up in trade discussions over the next six weeks. Since Assad still has minor-league options, the Cubs can afford to stash him in Triple A and keep him stretched out as starting pitching depth in 2026. That doesn't seem like the highest use of him at this stage of his career, but flexibility always has value—to the team that currently owns the rights to a player, and to trade partners. The other two Cubs eligible for arbitration this winter are on shakier ground, and will almost certainly be involved in a transaction Friday. In Eli Morgan's case, the question is whether the Cubs will jettison him by non-tendering him, or sign him to a low-dollar deal in the neighborhood of the $1.1 million he's projected to earn in his second trip through arbitration. If the two sides can't agree on a deal before the deadline, Jed Hoyer and company will probably just cut the righty reliever loose, but there's little roster pressure to do so. Chicago's 40-man roster still only has 32 players on it, so Morgan could easily survive. It's just unlikely that the Cubs let the question of how much he'll make linger past Friday, This deadline will be enough to spur action on such a fringy case. It's a different dilemma where Reese McGuire is concerned. After being an adequate stopgap amid Miguel Amaya's injuries in 2025, McGuire is under team control for one more season, if the Cubs are willing to pay him $1.9 million or so. However, he's ineligible to be sent to the minor leagues without being exposed to the other 29 teams. With Amaya and Carson Kelly set to remain the team's catching tandem of choice and Moisés Ballesteros available as at least an emergency option at the position, McGuire doesn't really fit the 2026 Cubs. They could non-tender him, but he should have (very limited) trade value, if they choose to extract it. Because McGuire is little more than a solid backup catcher, he won't bring back a player of any substantial value in a deal. Rather, the Cubs could swap him for a player with about the same ceiling but who isn't ready for the majors. It would have to be someone another team views as a potential strain on their own 40-man roster in the year ahead, but in a different way. Rather than being out of options or near free agency, like McGuire, the target would need to be a pitcher who projects to spend much of 2026 on the injured list or a prospect already on the 40-man roster who isn't ready for the big leagues but still has an option year remaining. Even that's relatively unlikely. The best bet is that McGuire would get them only cash. Usually, in trades like the one McGuire would be involved in, a team receives something like $100,000. The Cubs would thus save about $2 million by trading him. That's nothing to sneeze at, but most of those savings can also be realized by non-tendering him. Unless they get an offer too good to pass up, the team might release McGuire just for the greater goodwill doing so would engender. One way the Cubs position themselves to scoop up players like McGuire (or, for instance, Brad Keller, whom they signed on a minor-league deal last winter) is by cultivating a reputation for fair dealing with players in situations like these. Allowing McGuire to become a free agent and choose his next employer might be worth more to the team than they could acquire by trading him, payable in doors opened and calls taken by future free agents. Amaya and Ethan Roberts each fell about a week shy of qualifying for Super Two status, so the team only has Steele, Assad, Morgan and McGuire to worry about Friday. However, they might also make news in a different way. With other teams forced into tougher decisions due to crowded 40-man rosters and/or budget constraints, there will be multiple trades Friday involving not only players like McGuire, but slightly better ones who just don't fit their current clubs. With the extra space on their roster, the Cubs could be a destination for such a player. The Orioles are considering non-tendering right-hitting first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who's set to earn over $7 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Coming off a poor season, Mountcastle isn't worth that much unless you believe he's due for a rebound, but he's a career .282/.334/.479 hitter against left-handed pitchers, and could be a nice bench bat for the Cubs, rotating in at first base and designated hitter to spell Michael Busch, Ballesteros and/or Owen Caissie in various configurations. Andy Ibáñez (of the Tigers) and Jonathan India (of the Royals) are also righty batters with good track records against lefties, coming off rough seasons and on the bubble as Friday dawns. There are also, inevitably, a dozen or so intriguing arms who might shake loose easily. It's a day for small moves, but for a team with few arbitration cases to worry about and lots of room on the 40-man roster, it's a day full of opportunities. The Cubs will make some news Friday, and it could begin to indicate the direction of the offseason to come. View full article

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images According to multiple reports, the Cubs are among the teams with significant interest in Michael King. That's just preliminary speculation, but it's interesting, because (according to a source familiar with their thinking) the Cubs still view signing King as an option even after Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer on Tuesday, King, who enters his age-31 season next spring, ranked 13th on DiamondCentric's top 50 free agents list, and we project him to find a four-year deal worth $75 million. Right now, however, the Cubs project to spend about $70 million on their existing rotation for 2026. Adding King to the mix would push that number to roughly $90 million, and it would force at least one pitcher whom both the team and the player themselves see as a starter into relief work. Even if Chicago uses a six-man rotation to open next season, it would go something like: Cade Horton King Imanaga Matthew Boyd Jameson Taillon Colin Rea That would leave Javier Assad out of the mix to begin the campaign, and it would mean pushing Rea (or someone else, perhaps) to the bullpen once Steele returns from Tommy John surgery. That's not a deal-breaker in and of itself, because both Assad and Rea have experience in the bullpen, but it's probably incorrect to assume they'll use a six-man rotation, too. There are too many days off in the new version of the MLB schedule to make that the best use of a limited pool of pitchers. Thus, even without Steele, signing another high-end free agent would push both Rea and Assad to the pen, unless and until someone gets hurt. The team should plan for injuries, especially with this group. Thus, the logistical hurdles to signing a player like King are relatively trivial. However, the issue of the salary King is likely to command is harder to work around. Chicago owes Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner and Carson Kelly a combined $83.75 million, and they have holes to fill in both the positional corps and the bullpen. Pushing their collective spending on the rotation as high as signing King would might interfere with their plans. Much hinges on what the Ricketts family is willing to spend in 2026. They should have another $60 million to commit to players this winter, even after Imanaga returned—but it could turn out to be more like $40 million, and the difference there being similar to what King would earn on an annual basis is a telling coincidence. Since King turned down a qualifying offer, it would also cost the Cubs a draft pick to sign him. That's not a deal-breaker, either, because the team is likely to receive a pick when Kyle Tucker signs elsewhere, but the small problems with signing a top-flight starter keep adding up. For a pitcher who profiles more like an ace, it'd be easier to look past all the drawbacks to acquiring him. Alas, he's battled frequent injury trouble, and even when on the mound, his stuff didn't stand out in 2025. King does have a very heavy sinker, and that pitch and his sweeper play gorgeously off one another to righties. To lefties, his four-seamer and changeup play well. He offers a lot to dream on; the 2024 version of him was a solid No. 2 starter. Unfortunately, it's not clear that his injury issues are entirely behind him. Signing him would give the rotation much-needed upside, but not the swing-and-miss element that has been missing for years. It would also constrain their efforts to round out the lineup and replace most of their bullpen. The workaround, of course, is to trade someone from the existing group as they sign King, thereby keeping some money free to spend elsewhere while making the upgrade from whomever they replace to King. The best candidate for that is Taillon, whom they're set to pay $18 million in the final season of a four-year deal. Taillon, 34, had a 121 DRA- last year, marking him as far worse than an average starter, and his strikeout rate has been under 19% in each of the last two seasons. For those very reasons, though, Taillon has virtually no trade value. We could be heading toward a situation similar to the one the Cubs ended up in with Cody Bellinger last year. After planning for life without Bellinger and expecting him to opt out of his deal, the Cubs had to pivot when the slugger elected to opt in. They needed someone better than him, so they traded for Kyle Tucker, but that left them needing to get rid of a player with little trade value. They dumped him for Cody Poteet, whom they wouldn't even hold onto through spring training. It would be wasteful to trade Taillon that way this winter, but it might be necessary, in the wake of another failure to figure out what a key player would do upon studying their options in the marketplace. If the Cubs want to sign King, they probably need to move Taillon, to save themselves the flexibility they need to get better. Starved for leverage, they won't get much back. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images Shota Imanaga might have miscalculated a bit. He didn't think the Cubs would extend him the qualifying offer, so he turned down $15 million for 2026 with the right to earn either $15 million more in 2027 or $42 million more from 2027-28. Then again, the Cubs might have miscalculated, themselves. When they gave the offer to Imanaga, it was (in part) because they believed he would reject it, said one source familiar with their thinking. On Tuesday, each side took their medicine, as Imanaga accepted the offer. That entitles the left-handed starter to $22.025 million for 2026, a nice immediate raise, and it means the Cubs can't trade him without his permission until May 15. In essence, it ensures that the relationship between the two will last one more season, after which the Cubs will not be allowed to make the same offer even if they want to do so. Chicago chose this possibility over a team option that would have amounted to the same annual salary for three years, so they did gain some medium-term flexibility, but they now have a minor logjam forming in their starting rotation. Imanaga, 32, pitched 144 2/3 innings this year with a 3.73 ERA. His strikeout rate plunged, though, and his velocity was down after he returned from a long stint on the injured list due to a hamstring strain. He slots in, tentatively, as the team's second or third starter for 2026, but they now face the challenge of upgrading that department of their roster despite already being heavily invested in it. In addition to Imanaga's $22 million, the team owes Matthew Boyd $14.5 million; Jameson Taillon $18 million; and Colin Rea $5.5 million, not counting buyouts on the 2027 options for Boyd and Rea. Justin Steele is likely to make over $7 million via arbitration, too. That's a heavy investment in the rotation, for a team also locked into four eight-figure salaries on the positional side and needing to fill several more holes. This won't take them entirely out of the market for upgrades in the rotation, but they might feel compelled to trade either Boyd or Taillon to make room for that change, both financially and logistically. View full article

Image courtesy of © Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images It's Decision Day for Shota Imanaga, to whom the Cubs extended the qualifying offer two weeks ago. He doesn't currently count as a member of the organization, but if he accepts the offer, he'll go right back onto the 40-man roster. Right now, there's lots of room for him, but while he makes a decision about his own future, the Cubs have decisions to make about those of several of their prospects who would otherwise become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Tuesday is the deadline for teams to add players set to be eligible (based on the age at which they entered pro ball and the number of seasons they've played since signing) for the Rule 5 to the 40-man roster, thus protecting them from being selected. The Cubs need to protect several players, including infielder Pedro Ramírez and pitchers Brody McCullough and Brandon Birdsell. James Triantos, who was briefly in league with the team's top hitting prospects (Owen Caissie, Moisés Ballesteros and Kevin Alcántara) as they climbed the ladder, has stalled out in the high minors and enters Tuesday as an edge case. The Cubs have the open spaces to spare, for the moment, but if they have as active an offseason as Jed Hoyer envisions, they'll need to keep a few slots on their 40-man open for external additions. The main question with any Rule 5 protection decision is whether the player is likely to be taken if left unprotected. Any team who selects a player in the draft (which takes place at next month's Winter Meetings) would have to keep them on the big-league roster all year, or offer them back to their original team, so the Cubs just need to decide whether they believe anyone will be able to carry Triantos in the majors all year. If not, they can leave him off the list. If, alternatively, they just no longer believe in Triantos, the conclusion is the same. Triantos, 22, was a second-round pick in 2021, and has flashed a plus hit tool at some points during his professional career. However, injuries and a lack of power have stunted his development. In 538 plate appearances with Triple-A Iowa over the last two seasons, he's batted just .266/.322/.371, with 7 home runs. He does offer speed and versatility, but he's not a plus at any important defensive position, and while those numbers might be respectable for a slick-fielding middle infielder in the majors, they're underwhelming (to say the least) coming from a bat-first player still waiting to get the call. Ramírez, 21, is in position to simply take over whatever role the Cubs once hoped Triantos would fill. In 2025, he spent the whole season at Double-A Knoxville, where he batted .280/.346/.386. Those were virtually identical numbers to the ones he put up at High-A South Bend in 2024. He's no future star, but he looks like a solid, well-rounded backup at multiple infield positions, with upside from there. It's likely that the team protects him and lets Triantos dangle. Some of the day's other interesting calls will be on arms. Iowa starter Connor Noland doesn't have a plus pitch, but he was healthy and effective in Triple A in 2025 and offers high-floor, low-ceiling depth. Brandon Birdsell, who had climbed prospect lists and was my sleeper pick to contribute to the parent club when the team reported to spring training, almost immediately went down with a shoulder ailment that cost him the whole season. If he's healthy now, he's worth protecting from selection. The number of vacancies on their 40-man also opens the door to some trades today. The Cubs are in position to swoop in, should another team find themselves in a roster crunch and either not be able to add a player with upside or want to ship out someone taking up a precious 40-man place. By no means do Jed Hoyer and company want to end the day with their roster full, but even if they only add three or four of their current prospects to the slate, they might fill another two spots Tuesday, as well. Imanaga's decision will grab the most headlines, but there will be lots of other activity throughout the league. View full article

Image courtesy of © Mady Mertens-Imagn Images If you'd gone looking for a distinctly Cubs-coded starting pitcher in the free-agent class two winters ago, you might well have come up with Shota Imanaga as tops on the list. He was a veteran starter with an elite walk rate and sneaky athleticism. Though not a strikeout artist, he showed the ability to limit not only walks, but hard contact. He didn't throw hard, and he bordered on undersized, but Imanaga was well-rounded and smart—and left-handed. Jed Hoyer, above all, loves a southpaw. With Imanaga and Justin Steele already in the rotation, one might have reasonably expected that the team would want to diversify last offseason. Instead, though, they locked in on Matthew Boyd—another lefty, without high-end velocity, whose specialties were avoiding walks and working his way to weak contact. Under Hoyer, the Cubs adore a lefty starter who lacks velocity but not command; who needs to work in front of a good defense; and who can therefore be had for middle-tier prices despite having a high-end track record. Every time they acquire another such pitcher, though, it gets a bit harder to justify. As well as the strategy has been working (as far as it goes), the approach has effects that ripple out to the entire roster. Because the Cubs are unwilling to pay what it costs to land pitchers who miss bats at the best rates in the league (and, perhaps, reluctant to accept the extra walks and/or home runs that come when you shop for that skill, instead of command and pitchability), they have to remain extremely stout defensively. That comes with tradeoffs when building a winning offense. It also tends to mean lifting starters earlier, which forces the team to amass more relief depth. Hardest of all to work around, perhaps, is the fact that pitchers who can do what the Cubs want pitchers to do tend to have acquired those skills gradually, rather than being born with them. Hurlers with low walk rates and low opponent hard-hit rates tend to be experienced, and therefore expensive. There are few pitchers who meet Hoyer's standards and are still in their team-controlled seasons—let alone still having minor-league options. Building pitching staffs in the Hoyer style pulls money away from run production in the name of run prevention, even if not all of that money is spent on pitching itself—and it erodes roster flexibility, too. On the other hand: Hoyer's genuinely good at finding guys who will thrive in the system he's built. The Cubs have a good coaching and development infrastructure on the pitching side, even if the things they do don't work as well with draftees and young prospects as with free agents or waiver claims. There's something to be said for knowing what they're good at and staying committed to it. In that light, it's time to talk about Ranger Suárez. This week, the Phillies southpaw will decline his former team's qualifying offer. If Imanaga turns down the Cubs', too, there will be an opening near the top of the Chicago rotation, and no pitcher in the free-agent pool fits the Hoyer prototype quite like Suárez does. He struck out 23.2% of opposing batters in 2025, which is about as high as his punchout penchant rises. He fanned just over 25% of hitters in 2021, but that was as a swingman, and it came back when he threw 93-94. Now, he's more like 90-91. Suárez does have exceptional control, though. He walked just 5.8% of opponents last year, the lowest rate of his career. He fills up the zone with a deep mix, the best offering within which is a changeup that can induce both whiffs and grounders. Because hitters can never lock in on one pitch (and because his sinker has such good arm-side run), Suárez excels at inducing weak contact. He keeps the ball in the park well, and batters had just an 85.7-MPH average exit velocity against him in 2025, considerably lower than the league average. Suárez turned 30 in August, and he's in line for a four- or five-year deal. He'll make upwards of $20 million per year, and signing him would come with the added cost of a lost draft pick and forfeited spending power in international free agency next year. Then again, all the alternatives to Suárez also come with extra costs. In addition to fellow qualifying offer recipients Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Framber Valdez, there's Imanaga, but if he turns down the QO, the Cubs would lose their chance to reclaim a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. There's also Tatsuya Imai, who would only cost cash, but it looks like he'll cost much more cash than Suárez—not only because he's younger, but because whatever he signs for will come with a 15% posting fee paid to the Seibu Lions. Can the Cubs stomach one more pitcher just like the best ones they already have? You can make a fairly strong case against it, but Hoyer spent the GM Meetings in Las Vegas making the case for it, instead. "I think we'll see where the right value is. See who are the guys that that we've, you know, ultimately, the guys you usually sign are the guys you value more than the industry. And think that's kind of the nature of the game, right?" Hoyer said. "Like, Matt Boyd last year, was very clear, like, that was a guy we wanted to sign. We may have valued him higher than the industry, but that's okay. And you know, I think those are the guys you end up signing in free agency, those are the guys that I'm trading for, is the guy you probably value a bit higher than other people." That doesn't automatically mean the Cubs will be in on Suárez, or that they'll sign him, but sources familiar with the team's thinking predicted they will at least show interest. Unless his price tag runs much higher than expected, Suárez will be one of the Cubs' top targets this winter. Is that a good thing? The answer depends on how wise you think their approach to run prevention has been over the last few years. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images Fueled by his friendship with Seiya Suzuki and his eye-catching fashion choices, Pete Crow-Armstrong became an international star when the Cubs went to Japan to open the 2025 regular season. Next March, he won't have to endure as long a flight to experience the same global spotlight. He has accepted an offer to play for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, starting with pool play in Houston in March, he announced Thursday night. Any list of center fielders on the wish list for American manager Mark DeRosa was going to include Crow-Armstrong, and since Byron Buxton (arguably the only other center fielder from the U.S. better than Crow-Armstrong in 2025) will probably elect to avoid the injury risk of playing high-stakes games three weeks before Opening Day, the Cubs' young star has a clear path to playing time for his country. He won't be the Cubs' only representative in the tournament, but Crow-Armstrong is the one who could enjoy a further star turn by playing well there. That doesn't come with direct benefits for the Cubs. In fact, in addition to the slight risk of injury and the significant disruption of the preparation process that is spring training, this is likely to put extra time pressure on any attempts to sign him to a long-term deal. The two sides can't talk as easily with Crow-Armstrong in Houston. As Crow-Armstrong's profile continues to grow, he's also in an increasingly comfortable negotiating position. If the Cubs want to lock him up beyond 2030, they might already need to shift their focus from trying to capture value on a team-friendly extension toward paying the market rate for his services. Contracts signed by similarly famous and talented players (Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Fernando Tatis Jr.) have worked that way, even when the player didn't appear to have the short-term earning power or proximity to free agency to extract that kind of payday. Those players are all better than Crow-Armstrong, whose second-half struggles at the plate exposed very real weaknesses. However, his freakish athleticism and the upside he flashed with a calendar year (from August 2024 through July 2025) during which he batted .271/.312/.524 in 687 plate appearances make him just as dynamic as they are—and he's becoming that caliber of celebrity, too. The Tokyo Series to open 2025, his showcase at the All-Star Game and the Cubs making a two-round push into the postseason put Crow-Armstrong very much on the global map this year. Next year, he'll get to continue carving out a niche. He might even prove himself to be the best defender in baseball, anywhere in the world. The World Baseball Classic is wonderful because of players just like Crow-Armstrong; the endlessly charismatic Randy Arozarena was one of the biggest stars of the last one. Next spring's event continues to fill up with big names, and that's what Crow-Armstrong has already become. View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images The Cubs enjoyed a major free-agent success in each department of their roster in 2025. They signed Matthew Boyd to a two-year deal in late November 2024, and watched him emerge as their co-ace for much of the season. They picked up Carson Kelly in mid-December, and enjoyed his best season as a big-leaguer. Crucially, though, they also hit on multiple minor pickups in the bullpen. Most important among those was righty Brad Keller, whom they signed to a minor-league deal as a starter and who ended the year as their de facto closer. Keller, 30, is a free agent again after earning $1.5 million in 2025. He'll get a much bigger payday this time, and as he enters the market, the big question is whether he'll land a two- or a three-year deal. FanGraphs, ESPN and MLB Trade Rumors agree that Keller is in line for an annual average value in the $11 million range, but whether that stretches for two years or three could make a big difference in the chances of a reunion between the Cubs and their unexpected relief ace. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is a hardliner when it comes to reliever contracts. He's willing to embrace a bit of risk, but that has to come in the form of a free-agent deal he feels is rational. Otherwise, he's equally happy to let that risk take the form of building a relief corps with some lower-cost bets and some upside plays. "We've offered some [long deals to free-agent relievers]." Hoyer said at the GM Meetings Wednesday in Las Vegas. "I haven't given one out. So, I mean, it's not my favorite thing to do. I think that I prefer, you know, shorter commitments in the bullpen. But I'd never say never, like I said, we offered some last year. We just didn't win the bidding. So it's not, it's not a hard and fast rule. But I think you can, you can guess that we're probably going to be more focused on shorter commitments." The big deals he alluded to offering last year were to Tanner Scott, on whom the Cubs were willing to go to four years and roughly $70 million; and Kirby Yates, on whom the Cubs were ready to offer a second year but who preferred the Dodgers even on a one-year pact. While even a two-year deal at an eight-figure salary for Keller would come with a bit of sticker shock, it would be a very palatable alternative to a Scott-level deal for someone like Robert Suarez, of the Padres. One source familiar with the Cubs' thinking said the team considers Keller a priority winter target, but that they're very unlikely to stretch beyond two guaranteed years. A mutual or vesting option could be a way to satisfy both sides, if Keller is open to coming back. By every indication, he enjoyed his season with the team and would be happy to return, but this is the best chance he's likely to get at a major payday, so money will be a major factor. It's possible the Cubs would go further on AAV to keep it to a two-year deal. They might guarantee $25 million over that term, but balk at $34-35 million over three years. Creative structures (like the aforementioned mutual option, which would come with a buyout) could keep the annual real cost of Keller down for them, and the team is unlikely to exceed the competitive-balance tax threshold in 2026, so his AAV doesn't matter as much as the real dollars. Spreading money across a longer term doesn't hold much appeal for the Cubs, when it comes to Keller. They would want to get a shorter-term deal done. If a team steps up with an offer that bakes in some hope for Keller returning to a starting role, the Cubs will surely be outbid. He does have five pitches, which worked in concert beautifully in 2025. He's started so much during his career that some faith in his ability to return to that role is rational. A brief survey of sources in other front offices, however, found no team currently considering Keller as a candidate for a conversion back to the rotation. He's likely to make about $12 million, over either two years or three. If it be the former, there's a good chance the Cubs will be the team who signs him. If not, the odds tilt toward the righty finding a new home—and Chicago being left to chase still more bullpen help. View full article

With Kyle Tucker officially a free agent and little early indication that the Cubs intend to chase after him with $300 million in hand, the unrest has already begun to percolate. At the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Jed Hoyer seemed to hint that his focus this winter would be on adding pitching—presumably, at the expense of signing a top-flight hitter like Tucker, Pete Alonso, or Bo Bichette. Understandably, some will view that as a needlessly cheap way to build upon a successful 2025 season. At some point, though, the Cubs need to put up or shut up, and not in financial terms. The story of their last half-decade has been a constant insistence that they are one of the top teams in the league at scouting and developing talent, in defiance of the balance of the evidence. They use that refrain, in part, as cover for a lack of appropriate investment from ownership, but they also seem to realize that they aren't as strong as they purport to be. Time after time, they put players in the way of ascending top prospects, and it's never a superstar who supersedes the youngster. Rather, Hoyer has repeatedly hedged. When the team was still building toward something (but not yet actually competitive), he signed Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer to stand in the way of Matt Mervis at first base. Last winter, he traded for Ryan Pressly, rather than entrust the closer's role to Porter Hodge. Hoyer was right not to think Mervis or Hodge were up to the task, but because he still believes that his administration excels at player development, he brought in players who could be easily pushed aside if they did turn out well. Rather than acquire higher-caliber talents who would be locked into their positions for multiple seasons, Hoyer has sought out short-term solutions, hoping that by the end of a one- or two-year deal, the farm system of which he so often boasts will yield the star he really needs. It hasn't happened, save in a few cases, because the Cubs aren't actually excellent at scouting and development. They're in the middle of the pack in that regard, and they're below-average when it comes to developing pitching, specifically. Because league rules give extra draft picks to rivals and penalize big-market teams like the Cubs more heavily for signing elite free agents (and because the Cubs didn't ruthlessly bottom out during their recent rebuild, amassing high-end first-round picks for multiple seasons), the team never has an above-average capacity for acquiring young talent, either. The result is a farm system that isn't good enough to build a World Series contender without greater investment, either in finding and retaining top staffers, improved technology and player resources, or a much higher big-league payroll. Now, though, the team does have three young stars under long-term, low-cost team control. Cade Horton rebounded from an injury-ruined 2024 with a breakout campaign and runner-up Rookie of the Year finish in 2025. Michael Busch, whom the Cubs wisely snatched up after the Dodgers had done the lion's share of the developmental work, is the best hitter on the team. Pete Crow-Armstrong remains an enigma at the plate, but his first full season in the majors provided a tantalizing glimpse of his upside. At the very least, he's one of the game's most valuable defensive players. The team also did well in free agency last year, when they landed Matthew Boyd and Carson Kelly on two-year deals that now look like bargains. Those two players join Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea as an expensive but extremely competent supporting cast for the youngsters who have become the loci of value on the roster. The question, at the outset of the winter, is how best to supplement that group. Hoyer sounds much more dedicated to upgrading his pitching staff than to finding a replacement for the departing Tucker, even though the team was hardly an offensive juggernaut in the second half of 2025. The temptation is to read that as a failure by the Ricketts family (and by Hoyer, whose job is just as much to manage up and make the case for more robust spending as it is to manage down) to make enough money available for the team to be great. Suspicion of the Rickettses and their motives is well-founded, to be sure. Still, this is the right time for an approach Hoyer eschewed for too long. Perhaps his (not-quite-earned, but that's a separate issue) contract extension in July has emboldened him, or perhaps he's finally tucking into the hard and vital work of turning this team into what he's been begging fans to believe they already are. Either way, he's taking the right tack. The Cubs should stick with Seiya Suzuki (in right field and at DH, with a fair number of days off against right-handed pitchers), Moisés Ballesteros (as a DH who hardly ever starts against lefties and grabs perhaps 10 starts at catcher), Owen Caissie (right field, swinging over to left sometimes but rarely playing against left-handed starters), and Kevin Alcántara (a platoon partner for Crow-Armstrong in center field, picking up the occasional start in left or right, as well) to supplement their existing group for 2026. Ian Happ can remain the regular left fielder, but have his playing time reduced by roughly 10%. Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki can yield time against same-handed hurlers. Ballesteros, Caissie and Alcántara all appear ready to play in the majors. Caissie, who will turn 24 next July, has 982 plate appearances with the Iowa Cubs already. He's put up elite exit velocities in the minors, and his plate discipline is strong: he swings and strikes and doesn't expand the zone. He will strike out a lot in the big leagues, but the team needs to be willing to accept that tradeoff and embrace the power he can add to the lineup. The biggest missing ingredient for him, in that regard, is a high pulled fly ball rate, but pulled fly balls aren't the way lefties get to their power best at Wrigley Field, anyway. Caissie's bat speed, swing path and resulting batted-ball profile tell us he can slug plenty well by hitting vicious line drives and lofting the occasional 7-iron into the bleachers in left-center field, where the ball carries much better and the dimensions are friendlier. Though the team might wish him to get more playing time at catcher in Triple A, Ballesteros is similarly ripe, having taken nearly 800 plate appearances for the I-Cubs over the last two seasons. He also proved that his swing plays in the majors when called upon late in 2025. It's hit-over-power with him, but again, that's a fine approach for a lefty who calls Wrigley Field home. Alcántara is the most interesting of the set, though the lowest-probability future regular. He's the same age as Caissie, and a better athlete and defensive player. He has to learn to lift the ball to become a star, and that might never happen—but even without doing it, he might be able to carve out a very good career as a slightly matchup-protected outfield piece. He's played a bit less at Triple A than the other two, but he's still at nearly 600 plate appearances there. It's time to let him test his skills against the best pitchers in the world. It's unlikely that all three of them succeed, of course. That would be the case even if they all played for the Dodgers, and we could therefore be more confident that they were well-scouted from the jump and better-instructed on their way up the chain in the minor leagues. However, these are three legitimate, high-end offensive prospects, and the sustainable excellence that has eluded the Cubs since World War II—the decade-plus of being a winning team every year, as they should be in this division if competently run—can't come without giving them real chances to prove their mettle. Hedging time is over. As much as their 2025 playoff push might have led some fans to feel that the Cubs are ascendant in the NL Central, they're unlikely to beat the Brewers and win the division in 2026—let alone to overcome the mighty Dodgers. This team has much hard work left to do, to close the gap between what it is and what it should be. Spending big on pitching this winter makes a world of sense for them, and Hoyer should be applauded for sounding fairly intent on doing so. When it comes to the offense, it's time to let the kids play. If they don't, they're going to end up back in purgatory far too soon. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images Cubs right-handed pitcher Cade Horton placed runner-up the 2025 BBWAA Jackie Robinson National League Rookie of the Year Award, the league announced Monday night. Horton pitched 118 innings of sparkling ball for the Cubs, with a 2.67 ERA, and he blossomed into their ace in the second half. By finishing in the top two of the voting for this award, he earns a full year of service time for 2025, despite the fact that he debuted on May 10 and accumulated just 142 of the 172 days usually required to qualify for that. This means that Horton (who debuted six months ago) will be a free agent after the 2030 season, the same juncture at which Pete Crow-Armstrong (who debuted 26 months ago) will do so. The league's rules about service time and club control have never seemed more farcical, and perhaps they really are so, but either way, the incentive is a major factor for Horton in shaping his long-term earning power. Any extension with which the Cubs approach him this winter will have to take into account that he will be a free agent five winters hence. For Chicago, it's a small price to pay for the dominance Horton gave them, especially in the second half. The team was 15-8 in his starts, including 8-3 over his last 11. Opponents had a .447 OPS against him after the All-Star break. The season ended in frustrating fashion for the young ace, as he broke a rib and was unable to take the mound in the playoffs, but Horton showed the ability to overpower and overwhelm hitters. He projects as their ace heading into 2026. Matt Shaw also received two down-ballot votes from participating BBWAA writers, good for a 10th-place finish. On balance, the Cubs might have hoped they would see more development from Shaw this season, but their sophomores (Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch and Daniel Palencia, especially) were very good, and Horton was great. Jed Hoyer's goal of a winning team built more around homegrown talent and less around free-agent splurges is coming into view on the horizon. Horton is the emblem of that progress, and received a rich reward for that Monday. It should incrementally increase the Cubs' urgency, as they try to make the most of their young core by supplementing it this winter. View full article