Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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This also means these numbers are super small sample. Okamoto's numbers were awful in 24 and then great in 25. I'm not big on Murakami but the velo stuff isn't really what would worry me. Especially since with that power hes presumably got special bat speed.
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BBTV had its issues but the idea that the Baz trade is going to flip the market on its head doesn't hold up to a lot of scrutiny IMO
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MLB Trade Rumors said 8/180. And that's not to clown on them they're great and I don't think I saw any projection under $100M.
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Holy horsefeathers lol
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If he signs with the Sox that's a really bad sign for how the league view him.
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I'm not aware of any of the O's guys making a Top 100. Given the non-linear way prospects are valued that entire package probably isn't worth much more than a single one of Alcantara/Caissie/Mo. It's very much quantity over quality.
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Gore is 23rd in pitching fWAR the last two years so while I agree that there's an amount of paying for future production rather than past we don't need to pretend like he's currently chopped liver.
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I'm not especially high on Assad. The FIP beater stuff doesn't have a lot of the associated contact management numbers you typically look for to assure yourself it's real. We're well past small sample size but I still don't trust it, and based on their leaving him off the playoff roster entirely clearly the team doesn't either. I will say Assad did pitch well in a less ambiguous way in '23. He was more of an actual swingman and also had more velo (~93 as a starter and approaching 95 in short relief). I don't know what it takes to get that velo back, was his issue this year simply the oblique killed his conditioning? But if he gets back to that higher velocity I'd be more comfortable handing him the ball in a game of consequence. Ultimately I think his fate is tied to Brown and Wicks. They each have minor league options so you dont *have* to do anything, but broadly my thought is with the three of them it's a choice of "bullpen one, trade one, stash the other at Iowa." Setting aside what they'd each return in trade IMO the clear preference is Brown in the pen, Wicks at Iowa, Assad traded. And a trade should actually bring back something nice? The market for back of the rotation SPs is popping off. Adrian Houser just got $11M (!?!). Assad, especially with his minor league options, should have some actual honest to god value.
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Not the dollars the options. An opt out this winter should be a non starter with any free agent of substance. The Cubs already have half their lineup and half their rotation heading into FA next winter.
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Yeah I think this is probably right. And if you want to doom boner Imai's age would be a pretty solid reason for Stearns to make him an exception to his blanket "be a hardass about years" policy.
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Cross the Astros off the list too, as they're $24M under the tax. Might be a threat if we shift focus to trades
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From The Athletic on the Phillies
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One thing I'll say on Gallen is I'm okay with it IF it's paired with something else on the position player side. Trueblood's article today made it sound like they want to do one signing and one trade and improve each side of the ball. I'm a bit circumspect about who that position player trade could even be, but I'm open minded.
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It really sounds like the Yankees are simply not in. Not that they are losing just that they're not in. If the Cubs don't get Imai I think it's going to be because the Giants' crying poor is a BS feint like the Padres' turned out to be, or that someone a little random and unexpected like the Tigers stepped up big to add him.
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****! I don't think MoccBomb has ever been right.
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FWIW Sharma and Mooney on their podcast indicated that the Cubs had started moving on from King around the winter meetings. Whether that's because they've gotten farther down the road with others, they didn't like the price (that post '26 opt out should realistically be a non starter for us), or King didn't wanna come here is TBD.
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Yeah this is good news. *Probably* takes the O's out on the caliber of pitcher we're trying to add. Also Caissie/Mo/Alcantara are all better (I'd argue significantly so) than anyone the O's gave up so there shouldn't be any worry that we don't have the prospect firepower if we go the trade route.
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I kind of wonder if they had to do this to afford Realmuto. They're at $300M after this and were at $315M last year.
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Ah boo Moon sounded fun Also does this mean the Padres have a Cronenworth deal lined up? Doesn't have to necessarily but feels like a weird luxury to spend on when you've got a full infield and you're running horsefeathering Gavin Sheets at 1B.
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I keep coming back to this. If the team signs a player for $25M+, then using our typical assumptions around payroll (i.e. they really don't want to pass the LT, and they're going to give themselves $10Mish heading into the season for breathing room) then they're basically tapped out. Roster resource has them $41M under the cap, Lop off 25 for a big signing, 10 for that rainy day fund, and you're left with basically just enough for a few tiny signings to round out the back of the roster. A reserve infielder and a couple relievers on split contracts? But I feel like there are have been a number of subtle indications that they've got a little more money to play with than normal. Not a ton, probably just an extra $15M or so. But you combine the various things we're hearing, plus the normal way the team operates (e.g. Jed wanting to bargain shop in January which is basically a meme at this point) and the math just doesn't math.
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I think we're a good ways away from *that*
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WTF I thought the Padres were broke? This might be problematic because it pulls an arm off the market without removing a (known) team.
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IF this makes it across the finish line and IF we hold our assumptions about payroll, the team would be mostly tapped out after this. There'd be enough for several $1-2M moves, presumably a backup infielder and several relievers, but that's about it. Would be curious to see if they'd indeed pack it in or if there'd be any substantial move(s) from there.
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Yeah I took it as the Yankees are out on Imai but will be doing something else of substance (Bellinger, I assume?) instead. Cashman is pretty good at that, last year I think he pivoted from Soto to Fried and Devin Williams within a few days.
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I know Dombrowski loves good starting pitching, and he's got the rings to get the benefit of the doubt, but man putting all your money towards another SP when your outfield is that bad would be a really questionable choice. If the Yankees are truly out I feel really good about the Cubs chances, though the Mets and Giants lurk. Mets claim they won't go a bunch of years and Giants are crying poor, but either could easily be a smokescreen.
