Bertz

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Happ is weird. More than any of our players except maybe Javy, it’s a case of “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Pro’s - He played nearly a full year in the majors at 22, and did quite well for himself - He was actually well above average in sprint speed, which probably means that in the medium to long term he should be fine (or maybe even good) in CF. - With the rise in shifts, the bar is getting lower for defensive acumen at 2b. With his aforementioned speed and good positioning, his odds of being acceptable at 2b are higher than they were 10 years ago Con’s - He probably didn’t hit as well as his line indicated - The strikeouts, my god the strikeouts - He’s an awkward and clumsy defender If you think the contact ability will improve with age (maybe not go full KB, but he gets them down to 23-25%), he looks like Jason Kipnis with more power. If you think the strikeouts and defensive awkwardness are here to stay and his line this year was juiced by a few wall-scraping homeruns, then he’s probably more of a second division starter. But even on the latter end of the spectrum, doing what he did at 22 and with six more years of team control should make him fairly valuable. I would guess that, even if the Orioles specifically wouldn’t do such a deal, Happ’s value is in the Gausman + Britton range.

I love Jake and wish him the best but I'd avoid him like the plague in FA. His peripherals were pretty mediocre even in his strong second half. He's done enough for long enough that we can comfortably say he's a FIP beater, but Matt Cain and many others have shown that's a skill with an expiration date. Maybe that date is not til like 2020 but there's just as good of a chance it's next year. Honestly i don't want Wade back either, as he's a very similar case except worse since you don't have durability to fall back on.

He didn't make the list, and he shouldn't have, but I'm really bullish on DJ Wilson. The athleticism is obviously there, and the performance was fantastic after he came back from injury. .255/.339/.516 with a 10.0% walk rate and 19.1% k-rate, and he'll still only be 21 next season.

I love all of this, pending who the one or two guys are. McGee's my favorite reliever target and assuming Morrow's medicals look good he's even better. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Cobb signs this weekend. It seems so inevitable on both his side and ours that I wonder if they're just waiting for the qualifying offer period to end before making it official.

Let's assume the Cub's payroll limit is the luxury tax. and that MLBTR's arb estimates are pretty on point. The Cubs have ~65 million in free space this year (before cutting Rondon or Grimm) ~55 million in space next year ~45-50 million in space in 2020 That's a ton of money to spend. I assume the goal is to get one of Harper/Machado next year, which means 2020 will be tight. For that reason I doubt we shop at the tippy top of the pitching market (Darvish, Jake, Wade), but I don't think fitting an Alex Cobb and a Jake McGee into the picture is that hard. There's a lot of ways I imagine we could use our space this year that don't hurt us down the road. A big one would be to fill at least one of our major holes by acquiring an expensive one year commitment. A trade for someone like Brandon McCarthy or JA Happ for the rotation, or Brad Zeigler to fill one of our bullpen spots. We might also see some moves in the name of creative accounting (the luxury tax is based on AAV and not actual salary). The big one would be deals that buy out KB's arb years or Q or Rizzo's option years. Another, unlikely option would be a Heyward deal where we pay his 2018 salary and also most of his 21-23 salary, but not so much in 19-20. And all this is if we have to stay under the tax. In reality, we probably want to stay under for 2018 and then won't care anymore because of the tv money.

This is probably the best way to make a Heyward deal this winter. Shark and Melancon's combined contracts are likely in the red by about as much as Heywards over the next three years. So I imagine moneywise, we wouldn't need to throw anything in until years 4-6, by which time we'll be in our tv deal and better able to absorb that dead money. Even with how bad their outfield is, the Giants are definitely losing out on the talent portion of the deal. So this probably only makes sense if they need to clear money for Stanton or JD Martinez, right? Maybe we take on Span's $ too, to fill our Jon Jay role?

I'm really intrigued by Graveman. I saw a few of his starts early in the year and absolutely loved what I saw, but his numbers are unequivocally 'meh.' I'd like to acquire him with the thought that maybe Hickey and Borzello can help him to miss more bats, knowing that even if they can't he's a pretty good 5th starter as is. Also, given Billy Beane's affinity for safe, low upside guys, I wonder if we can just cash in a couple of Zagunis/Burkes/Bote/Vosler to make a deal happen.

I like Addison Reed a lot, but no way I give him four years, hell maybe not even three. I don't think I'd give four years to any reliever unless they're some sort of Jansen/Chapman caliber super-reliever. I'd be in on McGee at that price. Otherwise I agree eith above that I'd be more interested in the Neshek/Cishek tier of guys. Also, if we end up getting a third guy I'd love Luke Gregerson on a one year deal.. He was a little worse this year, but like 90%of his issue looks like it was just a flukey HR/FB rate.

Any interest in Matt Harvey as our second SP acquisition? He was legit terrible this year, not just a victim of BABIP nonsense, but the velocity is still quite good and he'd be another year further out from his surgeries. Strikes me as a good change of scenery guy, especially entering his walk year. The Mets have needs basically everywhere but 1B, SS, and whichever outfield corner they stick Yoenis, so it should be easy to match up with them.

Oakland makes a lot of sense as a trade partner, even if it's not for something as big as Manaea. They have a lot of pitching at varying levels of pedigree and proximity to the majors, and not much on the positiom player side outside of 1B and 3B. I could see something big like Happ for Manaea, but just as possible is that Beane likes some of our low-ceiling guys in the high minors and we can turn a few of them into a Kendall Graveman.

The media types make it sound like the Yankees are planning to get under the tax this winter so they can go full on Evil Empire next winter. If true, they won't do much except for maybe fight us on Alex Cobb. The Phillies are interesting. They could legitimately do Darvish and Stanton this winter and still leave room for Harper next winter.

I expect this winter to be weird. Last year's class was pretty awful, and yet pretty much everyone except the high-end relievers (And Ian Desmond for some reason) got less than expected. A lot of people think that with the 2018 bonanza on the horizon, teams weren't willing to spend just to spend, and that kind of screwed the middle class of free agents. I could see more of the same this year, perhaps to an even more extreme degree.

I'd love to get one guy near the top of the market (Brandon Morrow?) and then for the other spot(s) I'd wait until after the new year. There are enough set-up type guys who are going to need jobs that I'd bet we can get an impact guy on a good deal, kind of like how the Mets got Addison Reed this past winter.