Bertz

https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/statuses/1225159492515614722

I think the Phillies are the team that makes the most sense currently. They have the biggest hole at 3B by far for a contending team, they're in that extremely tight NL East, and they have enough money coming off of next year's books that they can make going over the LT a one year deal even if they extend Realmuto. If they finish 4th this year I can't imagine the GM keeps his job, and job insecurity is how deals get done. That being said at this point I expect KB to stay and Quintana to go. I am curious about how the Arenado situation evolves. If he makes it through the season as a Rockie, next winter a Bryant/Arenado switcheroo seems a lot more plausible, when KB will be making ~$25M and the financials are less complicated. Yeah I agree, I think the Phillies need him the most. Bohm, Howard, 1 of Velasquez or Pivetta and another prospect or two would be roughly what I’d expect with maybe Segura being involved too. An Arenado trade could make more sense next offseason but I don’t think Bryant would be involved at that point for the Rockies with 1 year left. We’d also have to be assured Arenado isn’t opting out too. A 3 team trade right now where KB goes to Philly, Arenado comes to us + a little extra stuff and Bohm and stuff goes to the Rockies makes some sense. Yeah I don't think KB would necessarily go back to COL in a deal next winter. Even this winter it sounds like the idea was that the Rockies would flip him by the deadline. I think it would be two related but separate deals, like the Joc Pederson stuff last night.

Yeah, the Dodgers offense is outrageous, but it's not hard to see that pitching staff imploding, as at this point Buehler is the only guy I'd really trust to be a high end pitcher. The rest of the NL is far more flawed, but I think I'd put the Yankees a half step above and the Astros on the same level.

Braves, Phillies, Nats, Padres and probably a “mystery” team (Yankees, Rays, Angels?) still all make some sense for Bryant. I’m at the point where I’m fine running it back and hoping for some better luck. If they have to get under the LT attach a prospect to Chatwood and be done with it. The only KB trade I’m really in favor of up at this point is one that ends up with us getting Arenado (whether that’s a direct trade, 3 team trade or two separate trades). I think the Phillies are the team that makes the most sense currently. They have the biggest hole at 3B by far for a contending team, they're in that extremely tight NL East, and they have enough money coming off of next year's books that they can make going over the LT a one year deal even if they extend Realmuto. If they finish 4th this year I can't imagine the GM keeps his job, and job insecurity is how deals get done. That being said at this point I expect KB to stay and Quintana to go. I am curious about how the Arenado situation evolves. If he makes it through the season as a Rockie, next winter a Bryant/Arenado switcheroo seems a lot more plausible, when KB will be making ~$25M and the financials are less complicated.

Sounds like no Padres either

Probably someone like Gonsolin as the starter? This does have some Cubs implications too. With the Angels and Twins adding starters tonight, that's two fewer places to send Quintana, and that is not great given that that's the assumed backup move if Theo doesn't get what he wants in a KB trade.

Move Joc to 1B once Adell is ready and dayum

Looks like you were right

Brusdar Graterol cannot possibly be a real name.

???

I’ll say Mariners because Dipoto got bored. Probably took Kelly’s horsefeathers contract from the Dodgers. I wonder if Price might be on his way to the Angels? Mookie to LAD Price to LAA Verdugo and LAA prospects to Boston

Yessssss

Here's Speier, who's a Boston source and less thirsty for rumor cred

I don't like Kipnis for the role because he doesn't do anything particularly well. Even if we're resigning ourselves to scraping the bottom of the barrel for a LH caddy for Nico, I'd aim for Scooter Gennett or Brad Miller. Gennett's splits make me think he's likely to at least be a useful platoon partner. And Brad Miller's only nominally a 2B, but maybe we can shift our way into him not being a defensive disaster in order to get a capable bat into the lineup. Kipnis is just blah and without a skill that can be leveraged to make him useful.

That's a much rosier projection compared to Steamer, which is what's currently powering Fangraphs' projections. It looks like Steamer likes Kyle Schwarber a good bit more, while ZiPS likes Contreras, Baez, and Hendricks by about a full win each. Steamer is much less likely to believe guys are FIP beaters and is all in on catcher framing, so Kyle and Willson make sense. I'm curious why they're so different on Javy though.

I am expecting over, even if we assume a KB trade. The chances of the bottom falling out of this team are much higher than they have been in a while, but my median expectation is still high 80's without KB and low 90's with.

Ben Lindbergh is great and I enjoy reading his stuff, but if you're stealing someone from The Ringer it's gotta be Rany Jazayerli. He's one of my favorite writers period. Problem is The Ringer allows Ben and Rany to write about other stuff like videogames, KC Chiefs and politics and pop culture stuff that isn't possible over at ESPN. Yeah that's a great point, I can't imagine Ben would give up writing about video games and Star Wars. But I think that's the style of writer ESPN is still missing, a baseball counterpart to Bill Barnwell essentially.

I guess I'll renew that insider subscription that was going to lapse in April. I wonder if ESPN is going to poach anyone else. With Kiley, Passan, and Sam Miller, they have the best or very nearly the best writers of their type. They basically just need to steal Ben Lindbergh from the Ringer to get someone in that lane and complete the set.