Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Don't think I'd hate a trade for Carr. Floyd and a 4th for Carr? That would leave us with approximately $20m in cap space and 5 draft picks to fill the following: Four defensive starters (S, CB, ILB, OLB), 3-4 immediate back-up/rotational depth pieces on defense, TE1, TE2, whatever you want to do with the OL, a WR2/3 and an RB2. It's the perfect "I sure hope a decent QB can save my job" move from Pace, so I expect it to happen. Yup, I'm expecting Carr and a big-ish name at Tight End (Hooper?). And then inevitably everyone is going to be besides themselves next year when the defense unsurprisingly takes another step back.
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I don't see it either. I believe the network doesn't go live until noon though, so it'll likely show up then. Showing up for me now, looks like it launches at 1 pm though, not noon.
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I don't see it either. I believe the network doesn't go live until noon though, so it'll likely show up then.
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There's been talk that Marwin's softer than expected FA market was because teams were worried about how much of his production came from Astros devil magic. I could see Springer having problems too if he doesn't have a big platform season.
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Spring Training 2020 (aka Mark Gonzales blurry photo szn)
Bertz replied to Brian's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/statuses/1229484899415052295 Gary Sanchez is basically remaking his Catching stance in order to improve his framing. I'm curious to see if we see anything similar or similarly drastic to this with Willson. Especially since the team brought in a new coach from the Phillies who was credited with fixing JT Realmuto. -
Funny what kind of extra credit Amaya gets when park factors get more explicitly into account. Also glad to see continued helium for Abbott. We kinda need him, Alzolay, or Miller to be a guy worth handing a rotation spot to a year from now. Also thought it was funny that he mentions Arismendy Alcantara as the biggest bust in his history doing these lists.
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I feel like because there's so much more rigor around PD now, we actually get more transparency into guys' progress. For instance this article on Brailyn from over the summer: https://theathletic.com/1156624/2019/08/23/how-the-cubs-molded-brailyn-marquez-into-their-best-pitching-prospect-of-the-theo-epstein-era There was also a lot of good info on Tyson Miller when he was wrecking hitters at Tennessee. It might change as this stuff becomes less of a novelty, but I think for the moment we're in a much better place. That being said, there's now going to be an even stronger impulse to think that every hot streak is a breakout. So take the good with the bad.
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https://twitter.com/TGlasnow/statuses/1228819765306720256
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It's weird, my understanding is that Cards fans are generally worried about the offense, but for me I look at that rotation behind Flaherty and that's where I see cause for concern. It's sort of like the Cubs' bullpen where the sheer number of options probably means that it will turn out fine, but looking at the individual names I don't see anyone besides Mikolas who I would say is more likely to be good than bad.
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2020 Draft Thread
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
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If players were paid year round, these would come out to: Short Season - $21,000 per year A Ball - $26,000 AA - $31,000 AAA- $36,000 Those are still low, but not egregiously so. HARD, hard disagree. That's understandable. What do you think would be a fair scale? My thought is an extra $10K per level, but I'm open to being convinced otherwise. Most of these guys get at least ~$100K upon signing, so my thought is to set a livable wage as a floor and then let everything else be figured out via those bonuses.
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If players were paid year round, these would come out to: Short Season - $21,000 per year A Ball - $26,000 AA - $31,000 AAA- $36,000 Those are still low, but not egregiously so. But of course the players aren't paid year-round, they're only paid for ~5 months, so it's obviously still not enough.
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Pretty substantial bump. I'd say the salaries themselves are approaching adequate, although they're only paid for the regular season so the owners managed to stay sufficiently dickish.
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International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Yeah I really like this idea of stockpiling young offensively gifted catchers. Attrition is really bad behind the plate, but between Hearn, Quintero, and Ballasteros the odds of netting an impact guy are actually pretty solid. I also think some of the the systemic changes coming to MLB in the next few years positively affect these guys: - The 26th roster spot makes stashing a 3rd offensive minded backup catcher on the roster much more palatable, so if a guy develops into a Robinson Chirinos type that will be much less of a bummer than it used to be - We're likely to see an automated zone in two years, which should lower the bar defensively, and possibly also allow catchers to progress through the system faster - The NL DH is probably also coming in two years, so if we get lucky and hit on more than one of those guys (or if Amaya is a star) there's less worry about guys being blocked because there are more reasonable paths to playing time In terms of things that I'm excited about on the farm this year the confluence of talent at Myrtle Beach is the clear #1 but the catching pipeline is probably #2. -
Literally laughed out loud at this
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I'm not sure I agree with you on not having an actual directive to be under the LT. If there wasn't a directive, Theo wasted this whole offseason by not signing players or trading for players that would have made this team much better. Why would he spend all of this time hinting at trading KB and infuriating fans if he didn't need to? The idea is that PTR is giving Theo $X per year, and not kicking in any extra for penalties/taxes/whatever. So because of the escalating nature of the penalties, Theo's choice is something along the lines of: $208M in 2020 and $250M in 2021 vs. $220M in 2020 and $210M in 2021 The plan has clearly been the former, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're still locked into it if the right opportunity arises.
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I'd buy that. I also really wonder at what point the team closes up shop on a Bryant deal and makes their backup move. I can't imagine they go into the season slightly over the tax, so they've got to at some point. Theo said something during the presser about being close to turning the page, so this weekend when position players report?
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On the Cubs end I think it really depends on the finances. The team already as it stands needs to cut ~$5M to safely get under the luxury tax. Arenado makes $14M more than Kris, so let's call it an even $20M? That is really hard to do at this juncture, for instance dumping Chatwood and Descalso is only $15M, so the Rockies would need to throw in money on top of that. If the mandate from ownership is more flexible, where this season or next are options, it's a lot easier to see. The FO would need to be fairly creative in patching the back of the rotation, but it wouldn't have to be as ridiculously austere as this offseason has been.
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Three Cubs on the FG top 100 prospects list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/ Hoerner at 46 Davis at 50 Amaya at 65 Marquez was also a 50 Future Value guys (meaning top 100 caliber) and slotted in at 114. I'd say this probably tracks closest to my own internal view, probably bumping Nico down a bit and Marquez up a bit.
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Extensions almost always happen after the team has their roster for the year set, so they don’t cost themselves flexibility they would need if plans had to change. That makes sense, but we know they've been working on this a while. Extensions don't generally just get knocked out in a couple weeks or in a relatively quick manner (Bote one being an exception). Cubs have been trying to do some of these extensions for years now... Just seems like there is more expediency around this time in MLB for some weird reason. I wonder how much of it is finally getting face-to-face time. Like teams and agents work through the broad strokes of a deal throughout the offseason, but it doesn't get finished until the player and team are in a room together. Another thing is that most players cut off negotiations at the start of the season. Baseball execs love nothing more than doing jack horsefeathers until the moment before they absolutely have to.
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