Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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This has been hell week for the Brewers. Yikes.
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I'd guess best case is the All Star Break at this point. They're definitely gonna go grab Kimbrel now.
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I'm positive that we're all going to hate Goldschmidt and he's going to absolutely wreck our lefty heavy rotation, but...this seems like a pretty player friendly deal? Like, would he even have gotten $130m this winter? I doubt it, and now the Cards are committing to that a year out. Also, if they were willing to do this, why not just sign Machado and slide Carpenter over to first?
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That's ominous as hell. If it's serious that turns their bullpen from great to merely good. Hell even a Kimbrel signing probably only brings them back to even (Kimbrel is better but given the calendar you're not getting a full season of peak Kimbrel anymore). I sort of expected Hader or Jeffress to have issues because they threw so many innings last year, not Knebel.
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Yep. Contreras is going to hit FA as a 30 year old catcher with 800 games under his belt. He won't be done, but he's not getting a long term deal. Meanwhile, if he comes out and repeats the second half of 2018, he might be out of baseball with what...$1.5m made in his career? You don't think he'd consider something like $50m or $60m for 6 years (using Bregman's deal as a starting point)? For all we know, Contreras could be Geovany Soto part deaux. God I hope not. Catchers are a crap shoot. They're not as bad as pitchers, but they're like 70% of the way there.
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The incredulity he had for each individual record was really cracking me up. Yeah, a couple items in he goes "What are we even talking about?" and I literally laughed out loud.
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Nothing will ever top Skunk in the Outfield as the quintessential Sam Miller article, but this is up there. Baseball's 20 Most Unbreakable Records that have a Chance to be Broken in 2019: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25776160/which-baseball-most-unbreakable-records-actually-get-broken-2019
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This close to the season Kimbrel seems ripe to have a rough season like what happened with Greg Holland last year. That being said he's coming from a much higher perch and the Brewers are good at relievers, so I'd obviously still be worried.
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In the Yu thread there's a video of him talking about having one in the same exact spot once before. That sucks, but the fact that it was all the way back in 2013 is encouraging. He's probably more likely than average to get one, but isn't some Josh Beckett/Rich Hill type that's gonna get them 3-4 times a year.
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Has Darvish had blister problems before? I feel like for some guys like Rich Hill it's a constant recurring thing, but usually it is a one-off. Regardless it shouldn't be a big issue. Maybe push him back to the Braves series? From a "who cares about Yu's feelings" perspective it's way better to have Quintana pitch against the Rangers and Darvish pitch against the Braves anyway.
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Sounds like none. Good deal for Trout. He probably could have hit $500m if he stayed MIKE TROUT for two more years, but the fact is that's a really long time and when you're as good as he is there's really only downside risk.
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2019 Opening Day Minor League Rosters
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Holy horsefeathers that Iowa lineup is bad, and I'm a big Zack Short fan -
For those that dont subscribe can you describe why? Guessing maybe they undervalue the impact of defensive lineman and maybe peg a certain amount of production to the draft picks the Raiders will use and that will be more value than Mack? Even if thats true 1) You still have to make the picks 2) The Bears 1st round pick the next 2 years wouldnt have helped them win the division for the Bears. So even if you believe the Raiders "won" the trade, at the very least the Bears did too. They don't go into much detail in the article. It was mostly just "draft picks are good." That being said. without having read the actual study I would be very skeptical of: A) The authors' ability to evaluate Mack's value on the field (because it's still super hard to evaluate non QBs in an objective way) B) Whether the authors considered the Bears place on the win curve C) To Brian's point the relative range of the Bears and Raiders picks. I.e. In next year's draft it's likely that the the difference the between the 1st rounder we sent out and the second rounder we're getting back is less than 15 spots Also, I believe like you alluded to the current NFL SABR community seems to be moving more towards "you can scheme a pass rush so actually the secondary is way more important."
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The Broken Business of Baseball (AKA never side with management)
Bertz replied to Sammy Sofa's topic in General Baseball Talk
If I remember correctly, aren't MiL players also docked part of their room and board? Or perhaps they are responsible for it out of their meager salary. One of my coworkers had a son who was drafted by the Mariners out of college. If I remember correctly, they got one meal covered during the day, and the rest they had to pay for. I know these guys are playing a game, and vying for an opportunity to be famous and fabulously wealthy, but the minor leagues really are a scam. I'm not sure about the room and board thing, wouldn't surprise me, but I do know they have to pay clubhouse dues, which go to support the clubhouse folks who also don't make a living wage. -
The Broken Business of Baseball (AKA never side with management)
Bertz replied to Sammy Sofa's topic in General Baseball Talk
Blue Jays are raising minor league salaries by 50%. Still not enough, but at this point at least guys at AA and AAA are approaching adequate money. For reference, here's what players make right now (this doesn't include short season): AAA: $2,150/month in their first year, $2,400/month in second year, $2,700/month in third, for a 5.5-month season. (Total: ~$11,825-$14,850 per year.) AA: $1,700/month, goes up by $100/month in additional years. (Total: ~$9,350+ per year) High-A, Low-A: $1,100-1,500/month, goes up by $50 per year in additional years. (Total: ~$6,050-8,400 per year) Dominican Summer League: $300 per month, $900 per year for the three-month season. -
https://twitter.com/GregJohnsMLB/status/1107111095154573312?s=19 The fact that an entire stadium of Japanese people still lose their horsefeathering minds over Ichiro is why baseball is the best. The fact that MLB Network is showing a replay of today's Astros-Phillies game instead of this right now is why MLB is kind of the worst.
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NL Central: Reds, Pirates and others
Bertz replied to Hairyducked Idiot's topic in General Baseball Talk
Fangraphs initial playoff/division odds are out: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds Cubs - 49% Cards - 27% Brewers - 13% Reds - 8% Pirates - 4% Honestly I think those are a tad light on the Reds and Pirates. -
I'm okay with the three batter minimum. There'd ideally be a more eloquent way of solving the problem (max of 11 pitchers on the roster?) but I think most such solutions are ripe for unintended consequences. Also, Joe hates it so that probably means it is good
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If he becomes that good then an 8 year deal saves them a fair bit more than 10%, right? I don't have a good sense for what's 'right' in these cases since this type of deal is so rare, but if you think of it as 60 million for his team control years and 40 million for 2 FA years(which would be age 28-29 if it starts this year), that *feels* reasonable to me on both ends. Looking at the Betts trajectory, or where KB was on his way to before 2018, I think the realistic current ceiling on pre FA is something like 7/90. Those two obviously came into the league several years ago, so let's say with inflation more like 7/100 for a guy like Eloy coming in now? If he's a star this deal essentially gives you that first FA year free, which is great, but if he's anything less than that you're likely overpaying by a fair amount. It just seems like pretty high risk for one extra year at a modestly below market rate in 2026. Although if it's a real offer there's surely a few additional details that completely change the calculus. Most likely a club option or two. I'd guess that would bridge the gap.
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I'll go ahead and say 93 wins. I don't love the outfield and I don't love the bullpen, but I think both groups have enough options that they'll be quality units by Memorial Day. The infield and the rotation will be huge strengths. In particular, the dueling KB and Yu revenge tours are gonna be full on baseball porn.
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I cant imagine that's true. Mookie Betts is at the tippy top of the pre-FA salary scale and he's going to end up with ~90 million during his first 7 years (assuming he stays awesome). No team is dumb enough to guarantee all that money for a ~10% savings in the incredibly unlikely event he becomes one of the 3-5 best players in the league. I'd love to be wrong though...Arenado's probably the only obviously player friendly 9-figure contract signed the past two years. We could use another couple per offseason.
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Lester had such a weird year it's hard to say anything with much certainty about him going forward.. His 2018 was a tale of four seasons: pitching poorly with great results, pitching well with great results, pitching poorly with awful results, and then pitching well with great results again. If you're one for narratives you could very easily be encouraged; the last quarter of the season he pitched legitimately very well. You could buy that he finally learned to pitch with his diminished velocity. Conversely even the most generous interpretation of his season has his ERA ~half a run lower than deserved. My guess is the real Lester is an average-ish starter by FIP and a tick better than that by ERA. Certainly no longer worth his salary, but also very clearly worth giving a rotation spot.
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Obviously in the context of everything else it's a valid concern, but 98% of the time these are nothing but dead arm. Hell Zack Greinke has had four or five years in a row where people write eulogies for him because he's topping out at like 47 mph.
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This is pretty fortunate timing for where we are on the calendar. Even if this injury keeps him out a month from when it occurred, that's only 10 games. And with all the off days the first few weeks of the season we can lean on Cishek et al without actually working them all that hard. Although Pedro showed last September that he's wolverine so this is all moot
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Wtf? That's insane for a returner. it is, but he’ll be used a lot more than just as a returner Yeah he did a little bit of everything with the Pats last year. Patterson will help with both RB and WR depth, and obviously as a returner. I really like this move.