Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Really curious where the Astros go from here. They're losing a lot of talent this winter, and on top of that have $90M tied up in just Verlander, Greinke, and Altuve next year. But at the same time Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and Valdez is a really good young cheap core to build off of.
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What's crazy is that the only real difference between Kershaw's career numbers and postseason numbers is his HR rate, which is double. I remember reading a few years back that for a pitcher of his caliber Kershaw throws a shocking number of pitches right down the middle. Yet for whatever reason hitters don't do much damage. I wonder if with the more extensive prep and gameplanning for playoff games hitters are more properly cranking those pitches.
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A bench guy I'm really interested in is Robbie Grossman. He'd bring that "professional hitter" profile to the bench that we've been sorely lacking since Sealboy left. Over the last three years he's got a 12% walk rate and only an 18% K rate. He's a switch hitter who's better against lefties than righties, but his split isn't huge as he's an above average hitter against both. He's played primarily LF the last few years, but Statcast says he's fast enough for CF and gets good jumps, so I imagine that's just in deference to Ramon Laureano.
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Holy crap
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I think this is pretty much exactly where I am. On the rotation, I'm wondering about more of a volume approach. Like if Stroman costs $20M, for that same money could you get James Paxton or Jake Odorizzi on a $15M pillow contract as well as someone in the Alex Wood tier for $5M? It might be too risky given that Alzolay is also unlikely to give you more than 120 innings, but I think it's interesting to consider.
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Do we really think that if they clear up that payroll that they're going to actually spend the money that they saved? That'd be about $30M less than last year. We'll see how it plays out but the indications we've gotten are that most teams are cutting spending by something in the 10-20% range. Cubs were at 210 last year so 180 would be a 15% cut. It's a very rough guess. I'd personally do something like Ha-Seong Kim (15ish), a decent #3 starter (10ish), and then use the rest to build out the bench as much as you can (like you said a CF, 2B, and C). But if they don't get Kim I would imagine it looks like what you said, maybe going a little higher in CF (JBJ?) and a little lower on the SP front.
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This is a very interesting article from Sharma and Mooney. Pretty light on concrete info, although a few interesting things stood out: - Non-tendering Schwarber is unlikely - They're not going to tear it down to the studs, so don't worry about Yu and Kyle going anywhere - From my reading, Kimbrel is the only guy whom they indicate is more likely than not to go - Contreras clearly makes the most sense to trade on paper, but the team really values his off the field makeup so they're reticent - Bryant's clearly on the block, but they expect he's in that awkward "more valuable to us than in trade" zone because of his salary Taking all that together, I imagine they're going to trade Dirty Craig and one of Bryant/Contreras. I imagine they try early to trade KB, and if they don't like any offers pivot to Willson right after Realmuto signs. Everyone else gets a chance going into 2021 to rebound. So if we use Brett's ~$180M payroll estimate, that'd give the team ~$35M to spend in FA if Contreras goes, and ~$50M if Bryant does.
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I'm also glad that it looks like they're going to go down in the LCS. If they had lost in the wildcard round they could have rightfully blamed the new rules. But at this point it's a pretty clear choke job.
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Thanks Raisin! I wonder if they've also been doing work at Driveline-esque facilities, similar to what we've been seeing Ethan Roberts post periodically. Get into one of those places once every month or two in addition to your normal work, share the data and video with your coaches, and suddenly that's probably not too dissimilar from what's happening at Instructs.
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Have we gotten any further indication why Jensen, McAvene, and Clarke aren't there? Are they all injured? I follow the minors pretty closely and I've never heard of a good half-dozen pitchers down there right now (like who the hell is Ben Leeper?), so those three being missing is super weird.
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25-year old Korean SS Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Those are extremely strong projections, though obviously riskier than a domestic player. I wonder if he gets something akin to what young stars like Eloy have been getting prior to being called up like ~7/100. Though obviously he has more leverage so less of that cash would be locked behind team options. -
In case like me you hadn't checked in on Kaplan in a while and we're wondering if he's still the worst
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Fallout from the Yankees losing again will be interesting. Immediate reaction is that you have to imagine they move on from Gary Sanchez this winter. I doubt they're a player for Willson, but I could see them on Realmuto, which would open up Contreras' market even more. And backfilling Willson's spot by taking a flyer on a nontendered Sanchez is something I wouldn't hate. Also, I shudder to even speak this possibility into existence, but the Yankees probably want a #2 behind Cole, and Yu is basically the platonic ideal of what they look for in a pitcher.
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25-year old Korean SS Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's basically a team top 10 prospect. In general, their scale equates to something like: 60 or more - Star Prospect 55 - Top 50 Overall Prospect 50 - Top 100 Overall Prospect 45 - Team Top 10 Caliber 40 - Team Top 30 Caliber 35 - A prospect, but either really far away or very low ceiling -
Would not be surprised if the Marlins are surprise buyers this winter, and they make a ton of sense as a destination for Willson. Also Schwarber to a lesser extent.
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Agreed with this, I really like the no offdays Division Series. I'd keep this moving forward, maybe have 3 home games followed by two away games for the higher seed instead of 2-2-1? I think both changes probably shift the odds a little bit in favor of the higher seed.
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Brett's write-up is pretty spot on too. There are a few additional things I'd point out though if you want to be less pessimistic about the payroll: 1. The last two years payroll has averaged ~225. That may be a more accurate baseline than just 2020, as clearly the idea was to splurge, then get just under the tax, and repeat. So if you lop 25%/15% off of that baseline, you're talking more like 170/190 2. Marquee is now fully up, and they got their carriage deals with all of the providers you would have reasonably expected. For ~5 years this was supposed to be the payroll silver bullet, and now it's here That said, Brett is generally captain optimism, and he is vaguely connected, so if he's saying to pump the brakes, you probably should pump the brakes. Also, the next time PTR exceeds expectations will be the first since he poached Theo.
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If everybody is selling who's going to be buying? In terms of teams who are going to net add payroll, I'd guess we could count them on one hand. Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays all look likely. White Sox and Nats wouldn't be shocking. And maybe one or two of the rebuilding teams might try to take advantage and start shopping early? But mostly it's going to be teams moving payroll around, e.g. let's say the Cubs traded Baez and signed Marcus Semien. In that scenario they're not adding money, but they are still buying. It sounds like we're going to see a record number of non-tenders this winter, so I expect to see a lot of "team X cuts $40M in arb players and adds back $25-30M in FA." It's going to be ugly.
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To me, this is the nightmare scenario. If the core guys don't have value in trade, then let them go. Everyone is on non-guaranteed deals, there's no gun to the FO's head forcing them to keep the band together. And we've seen that for whatever reason (the velocity thing sounds pretty compelling to me), the whole has consistently been less than the sum of its parts with this group. I understand not going scorched earth, as I imagine for each individual the smart money is on a bounceback. But there's no reason we should be betting on four concurrent bouncebacks. And certainly not spending ~$70M for the privilege. Do something to start working towards the next great Cubs team. I personally think the pitching is good enough and the division is bad enough that you can do a "retool not rebuild" kind of thing. But even if you don't, start the teardown process now. You don't have to make nine trades this winter to tear it down to the studs in one go, but make like three. The FA market is also going to be absolutely flooded with mid level players this year. For a front office that prides themselves so much on their talent evaluation, this is what they're so highly compensated for. If Theo wants to continue being the highest paid non-player in baseball, he probably can't just sit on his hands for a third straight offseason.
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We know most teams are going to cut spending this winter. Here, we finally get some numbers for a team. The Rangers are cutting payroll by about 1/3rd, from ~150 to ~100, though it sounds like they were already planning to do some cutting pre-COVID. I wouldn't be surprised if we see most teams cut something like 10-20%. This FA market is going to be a bloodbath.
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A good article on the different schools that various front offices fall into, if you want to look at the different directions we could go post-Theo.
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It's really hard to say where payroll is going to be this offseason, and that obviously informs what's possible. I'm hoping that with Marquee going full force they still run something like $200M, but safe bet is always going to be that the Ricketts will disappoint. I mentioned this in the game thread, aside from Heyward the FO can potentially clean the slate this winter. There are currently only five guaranteed deals on the team: Yu, Kyle, Bote, Kimbrel, and Heyward. The first three are clearly positive value, and Heyward's clearly immovable. Kimbrel's harder to say, but he's looked like 2018 Kimbrel for the last 6 weeks. I'd bet that's enough for teams to consider him fixed and take on his money. I 100% trade Willson this winter. With him actually being valuable and Caratini and Amaya behind him he's gotta go. Bryant as well. I'd rather have Bote starting and ~$22M to spend than Bryant for next year. He'll probably bring back a couple of fun arms but honestly I trade him regardless of the return. Anything beyond that depends on how high payroll can go, though Schwarber probably goes for me as well.