Bertz

Not really sure this tracks when you only have to go as far back as 2018 to see him outperform his FIP thanks to a low BABIP

He got BABIP'd pretty hard plus the juiced ball made it so that the league average ERA was 4.51 this year

On the rotation, something to consider is that we will have a lot more decent options at Iowa than in years past. We're probably looking at an Iowa rotation of: Alzolay Abbott Miller Graveman Rea None of those look like immediately incredible options, but all except Rea (who probably sucks, but did put up a sub 4 ERA in this year's insane PCL) are legitimately interesting, in addition to Mills who will be in the pen. I'd specifically like to call out Graveman, who was a solid league average starter who many people liked as a breakout pick prior to surgery. With his mid 90's sinker and high spin breaking ball looks a lot like Pirates era Charlie Morton. In previous years, we'd have our 5 starters, Montgomery in the pen, and a guy like Rea at Iowa and that was it. So it was imperative that our worst starter was someone who was still pretty reliably okay like Hammel. Now though, if we're not bringing in someone actually good, I want the 5th starter spot to have flexibility. I'd rather be able to cycle through these guys than lock into someone who's going to guarantee us 1 WAR.

Steamer Projected ERA, right now: Teheran - 5.19 Mills - 4.66 Alzolay - 4.22 (as a reliever to be fair) Over 108, 37, and 5 IP? No clue how this works tbh The playing time is probably based on the FG depth charts, which given where we are on the calendar are probably pretty nonsensical. But the rate stats are our best public estimates of guys' current true talent.

Tehran horsefeathering sucks Don't get me wrong, he's no Adbert Alzolay or Alec Mills, but a healthy 29 YO on a one year deal who can fairly reliably deliver a couple WAR and ~180 innings is pretty practical if unspectacular Steamer Projected ERA, right now: Teheran - 5.19 Mills - 4.66 Alzolay - 4.22 (as a reliever to be fair)

If they didn't think he'd provide continuing value they wouldn't have offered him a job and wouldn't have committed to creating the role in the first place. The Cubs clearly wanted this guy and lost out on him to a division rival that also stole the one good pitching mind they had in the organization. It's a loss. I didn't say he'd provide no value, I said I question how much immediate impact he'd provide given that the team isn't starting from scratch. I think the team is far enough along that he couldn't just come in and be like "Do this one weird trick and suddenly you're the Astros." I think if there is a guy out there who could do that, it's probably Brendan Sagara's counterpart from either the Astros or Yankees. That might be why they created the new Director of Pitching position, to have a promotion to offer one of those guys. Also, Derek Johnson was overseeing the minors when they were at their most butt at developing pitchers, so I'm not sure he makes your point very well.

This. So very much this. How many legit new wave pitching gurus are there to pick from? This can't be much different than free agent baseball players. There are only a select few who will actually be very good at the job. Probably not very many. That being said I'm not sure what kind of continuing value he provides beyond being another very intelligent voice in the room. He deserves all the plaudits for innovating in this area, but beyond the very public ways he's moved the industry forward does he provide any other immediate insight? If you have a sub to The Athletic I highly recommend the article from this summer on Brailyn Marquez or the one from a few weeks ago on Ryan, Wieck, and Wick. We're doing a lot of this stuff already, just clearly not as well as the top tier of the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees. If anything I would look to poach guys from those Orgs to move our program forward into that tier, while Boddy's value might lie more in helping team building out this system from scratch.

I think it's about how much of our lineup has the same weakness, the high fastball/low curveballs style that's come in vogue with teams like the Astros. And so if you draw a pitcher who is built in a certain mold (e.g. Go Gonzalez to CW11's point), he can run roughshod through the lineup even if he's not particularly good. This is basically what Happ spent his time in Iowa fixing, and IMO dovetails with Theo's repeated statements about development needing to continue at the MLB level. This is also why we should probably expect Castellanos back, because he gives the lineup a different look. It might also be part of why Almora got such a long leash, because back when he could actually hit he was similarly complimentary in this way to the core part of the lineup.

This. So very much this.

Here's mine. For the most part, I lay the problems of the 2019 team more on "too many bad players" than on "not enough good players." So to that end I'm focusing on depth and contingencies. - Sign Castellanos for 4/56 - Sign Will Smith or Ryan Pressly to the Zach Britton Deal (3/39 with an option) - Sign Billy Hamilton for 1/3 - Trade for a team control CF (Haniger, Dahl, Nimmo, etc.) - Sign a reliever in February for 3-4 million Position Players: C - Willson, Vic 1B - Rizzo 2B - Nico, Bote SS - Javy 3B - KB LF - Schwarber, Happ CF - Haniger (or whoever), Hamilton RF - Castellanos, Heyward This really brings us back to that enviable level of depth we had a few years ago. Every position has a strong backup, and every guy has at least one strong skill that can be leveraged situationally off the bench. Billy Hamilton may give people the heebie jeebies, but if you get a manager you trust to play him a lot while only giving him only a nominal number of ABs, that infusion of speed and defense can be very valuable with the extra bench spot next year. Bullpen: CL - Kimbrel SU - Will Smith, Wick MR - February Vet, Ryan, Wieck, Underwood/Maples/Etc. LR - Mills (Graveman by midseason?) The pen was obviously a wet fart this year, but I feel solid about it next year. I would like to add one really high end guy who can anchor things in case Kimbrel is permanently broken, but otherwise I'm fine with tweaking. Last winter they added Ryan, Wick, and Barnette as guys they could stash in Iowa, and Brach as a vet on the eve of ST. They hit on those guys at 50%, which is a big problem when the top of your pen sucks, but for filling out the 6-7-8 spots it totally does the trick. Rotation: Darvish, Kyle, Q, Lester, Chatwood Going status quo here gives me a little hit of heartburn, but most of the available resources have been used to fix the pen and the position players. Chatwood's in an interesting spot. My guess is that he did enough that we could get out of his contract this winter. At the same time, he has done enough that he's again an interesting rotation option. It's a bit of a gamble, but given that Iowa finally has some solid options (plus what Mills did in September), and that other areas of the roster are going to require plenty of resources allocated to them, it's a gamble I am willing to make. This team ends up being around $240M, which given the tv deal starting plus the money saved at the manager position *shouldn't* be an issue. But if money does prove to be a problem, replace Chatwood with a young cost controlled starter.

We're thinking this new Director of Pitching position is what Kyle Boddy interviewed for, right? Have we heard about anyone tied to the Hitting Director role?

I just don't see the rationale behind taking info out when already dealing with not enough. All of these can be accounted for oracknowledged without dismissing. Nothing will excite an org more than the highly drafted or well liked amateur that comes in and performs with the deck basically fully stacked against them and only the worst will be written off after a pro debut. You're gonna probably get a couple hundred+ PAs out of a high pick like Vaughn pretty easily, which sure is a SSS but hardly a dismissible number. From there you can acknowledge that a college guy will probably be a little older than his comp in pro ball, but he's also going to be handicapped like you mention because he's also probably coming off the most stressful year of his life both on and off the field AND many of their opponents have had pro instructs and offseasons. I've been on this site calling future relevant DSL and AZL Cubs off of some pretty basic stats, usually less than 300 PAs too, literally for years now with lots of hits. Yeah, I can't tell you what they'll be like as MLers or even if they'll make it, but I can definitely tell you which debuts or players are worth following with confidence. This is just me doing it for fun after reading other people's stuff for years, the predictive value isn't zero at the level is what I'm getting at. Many times (like DSL ) the line isn't outright anything anyone would notice, but put into context with the info we do have and what is known about what stats are telling at these levels of ball...Anyway, even if you buy nothing about what I'm saying there's still no rational explanation for dismissing information in a situation where the outcome is easiest to predict using all the info - qualitative and quantitative To me this idea of dismissing stats in that context is as crazy as dismissing scouting reports, bio info, and anything else you can get. Just quick glancing at 21 YO Andrew Vaughn's pro debut as a highly ranked player taken in the top 3 of the draft: he took 16 PAs in Rk ball, demolished it for the record. He then took the final 229 PAs in full season ball, most of those alllllll the way in High A (one of the two that isn't the CAL where I'd probably expect a pretty slash) when even that whole bit about the SEC kinda runs its course, and put up above league average lines in both with no issues making contact or hitting for both average amd power relative to the league. To me, that's a strong pro debut even borderline badass for getting those reps in High A. White Sox fans should be pretty damn happy with that debut even considering he's a short RH 1B because clearly that profile was not scary enough to override what he was doing in college - hitting for power, hitting for average, not striking out, and taking walks Let's take Strumpf as an example of a bad debut this year. I think we'd all agree his K rate is less than ideal given that he's a college bat. How many PA's next year do you need before you completely disregard everything from this summer? Like if Strumpf is sitting at a 15% K rate on May 1st next year, will you still be couching everything with "I'm still worried. Dude had a ton of swing and miss at Eugene last summer." Because I'll be honest I'll probably be willing to throw his Eugene numbers out by tax day. Conversely, if Ademan kicks ass to open next year, he's probably gonna need to keep it up into at least June before I start buying again It's less about throwing information out and more about weighting. I think I ranked Strumpf 9th in our system the day after the draft. If I did the same ranks today I probably wouldn't drop him more than one spot (ignoring obviously anyone else's movement). But to use Ademan as a comparison again, I think I had him 3rd or 4th at draft time (holy crap he had a 140 wrc+ at that point?!). Now? Mayyybeee 10th as a nod to his age relative to league. If 2019 production is informing 30% of my Ademan opinion, it's informing less than 10% of my Strumpf opinion. DSL production is a great comparison. Let me first say in no uncertain terms that I really appreciate the effort you put into digging into those guys. Please keep doing what you're doing on that front. But, essentially my entire opinion on anyone that low is going to be based on their scouting report. Like pretty much nothing a bonus baby such as Ronny Quientero does prior to South Bend is gonna move the needle for me. And if there's some $100k guy killing it in the DSL, unless it's paired with an glowing scouting report it won't really register for me.

Because this isn't the only factor that makes these guys' numbers unreliable - It's SSS, as at absolute best you're looking at 2.5 months, more like 1.5 if a guy makes a deep CWS run - The fatigue thing - Guys from SEC are playing levels of competition well below what they're used to (which is why you shouldn't get too excited about guys who are doing awesome) - Guys haven't gone through their first offseason/instructs yet, so there could be things wrong with them that are very fixable - General issues with the predictive power of leagues so far from the majors You still want guys to be good obviously, but I'm not sure there's any evidence that we actually learn much during this period.

Not a Cubs Q obviously, but something to keep in mind for college guys their first summer. Like I'm very disappointed in what Strumpf has done since signing, but it's hard to take numbers the summer after the draft too seriously, good or bad.

His BABIP's 40 points lower than last year and well below his career average so that's a quick start. Walk rate is the lowest of his career, career year in EV, he barrels the ball consistently, hard, and far, makes more contact...There's not alot of stuff saying that .840 OPS is the best he's capable of at 25% and that 112 can climb pretty quickly with just his normal BABIP and BB rates instead. If the K rate really is still improving - say if this second half 18% leads to a league average or better K rate during his age 27 season we might really really get something Iunno anything about permanent improvements but an age 27 Schwarber in 2020? Yeah sure, and obviously for the handful million he might make that is well worth finding out His BABIP is only 15 points under his career line. With someone that puts the ball in play as little as him that's ~5 hits. It's 40 points lower than last year because last year he got Chili'd and hit the ball on the ground a lot more, so you're not getting back to that point unless you want to sacrifice a half dozen dongs for like 15 singles. I'm not trying to run the guy out of town, in fact I'm pretty sure I defended him in April in this very thread, I'm just pointing out that basic math shows that he's pretty much capped at his current numbers unless there is a further drop in his K rate. Squally pointed out that he's at 18% since the ASB. That's great! But either an improvement in K's or my whole juiced ball thing *has* to be the case for him to be anything more than he's been thus far.

I was actually referring to his season lines - Ks are down for the second year in a row, power is up significantly over last year with a .280 IsoSLG up from .230, headed into his age 27 season next year. I don't buy the italicized necessarily but mostly because I don't get why. He's a limited player but if he's making more contact, hitting it far in the air, doing more against LHs, and still taking walks its hard to buy that he's not capable of topping 120 pretty handily His season line right now with a 25% K rate is only a 112. wrc+. So how do you see him "handily" topping 120 while staying at 25%? I personally only see one way: a de-juiced ball leading his .840 OPS to be more impressive on a league adjusted basis. If you think his K rate is going to continue to improve, then I don't understand what you're disagreeing with. I already said that I think this a hot streak, but that if these improvements are permanent it obviously changes the calculus.

If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular. Maybe I'm not thinking about this right, but I don't see how the juiced ball really impacts his value relative to other players. Everyone is playing with it. He was 37th in baseball in home runs last year, this year he's getting more ABs and he's 20th. Everyone else is hitting more home runs, but so is he, so I don't get how his value drops. To use non-specific numbers, hitting 125% of the league average is equally valuable is the league average is 15 or 20. Schwarber's HR/FB rates the last three years: 2017 - 24.0 2018 - 24.5 2019 - 24.1 Edit: For context, league wide HR/FB the last three years is 13.7, 12.7, 15.4 He's NOT getting the big boost from the ball. His well struck balls were always dongs, but now they are just going another 10-15 feet. Schwarber's .844 OPS this year isn't that notable because the league average is .760. But if the ball reverts, and the league average OPS goes back to last year's. 728 or (god forbid) 2014's .700, suddenly he's back to being a feared slugger. Honestly I think this is the primary reason the shine is off the apple for most of our offensive core, but that's a whole other thing.

This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.

I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.

They also didn't have Chris Morel in their recent top 30, which is ludicrous. They obviously fell off a lot when Jim Callis left, since he's basically the Mike Trout of minor league stuff. But I feel like they've fallen off even more the last year or three. I tend to think it's because they try to put out way more content than they used to to in order to compete with as MLB.com or Fangraphs, but since they still have a pretty small team it has led to a lot more sloppiness. They've also lost Jim Manuel and Aaron Fitt (college baseball) in recent years, who are really good. Good call. Manuel especially touched a lot of the rankings and the handbook.

I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ... They also didn't have Chris Morel in their recent top 30, which is ludicrous. They obviously fell off a lot when Jim Callis left, since he's basically the Mike Trout of minor league stuff. But I feel like they've fallen off even more the last year or three. I tend to think it's because they try to put out way more content than they used to to in order to compete with as MLB.com or Fangraphs, but since they still have a pretty small team it has led to a lot more sloppiness.

No Amaya?? Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part. I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years

Figured this was coming as they moved around some cap hits the other week. Yeah this was expected, but good to see pen to paper. I thought I read they had $20+ million free, so I'm curious where the rest of that money is going (or maybe this deal is just crazy front-loaded?)

Nelson Velazquez has quietly been awesome since coming off the IL. .291/.355/.504, with a 9.2% BB rate and a 24.8% K rate. K's are obviously still a little high, but overall really good stuff from a toolsy 20 year old in the Midwest league. Myrtle Beach is going to be horsefeathering fun next year