Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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They have two fun young major league starters: Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver. They've also got a fantastic farm, but nothing super close to the majors, so one of those two would have to be the headliner I'd think. I love Zac Gallen and was surprised how quickly Miami dealt him away. That said, not sure he screams "headliner" in a trade for our superstar third baseman. Yeah I tend to agree. I think the Dbacks are similar to the Braves, where they certainly have the ability to provide fair value for Bryant, but they don't have a "THE GUY" who I would be happy with headlining a deal.
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They have two fun young major league starters: Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver. They've also got a fantastic farm, but nothing super close to the majors, so one of those two would have to be the headliner I'd think. They have like 6 SS’s or CF’ers in their fangraphs org top 10. There’s gotta be a guy or two to like in there I’d imagine. Gallen, 2 of those guys and a little something else maybe? I’m not familiar with any of their prospect names other than Seth Beer. I believe the way FGs future values work is that a 50 or better is a top 100 caliber prospect, a 45 is someone you should be happy having in your org top 10, and a 40 is someone you should be happy having in your org top 30. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-arizona-diamondbacks/ So using this list, I would think a KB deal would look like: Weaver or Gallen One of those 50 FV SS/CFs One of those 45+ pitchers, probably Martin or Bukauskus as they're closer to the majors It's more quantity than quality for my taste, but I'd guess that'd be the fair expectation.
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They have two fun young major league starters: Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver. They've also got a fantastic farm, but nothing super close to the majors, so one of those two would have to be the headliner I'd think.
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I think the fear over such a deal really depends on how much you believe in Cardinal Devil Magic. Given what Morosi said, I'd imagine a deal would look something like: Carpenter or Fowler Bader or Edman Hudson One of those top 4 prospects That would be a severe hit to their depth both in the rotation and on the position player side, and honestly on paper wouldn't be worth it in my opinion, unless they were going to spend additional money to bolster their depth. BUT, that ignores the Cards' ability to will any gritty white guy into being a league average player wherever they need one. Given that I absolutely do believe in the Devil Magic, yeah I'm gonna start scoping out forehead veins.
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My guess is the team is still looking at a Joe Panik type, and Kemp would have been redundant with that. Good to get a teeny bit of value for him, I assumed he was going to be the last guy on the bench and be unceremoniously cut once it was time to make a roster spot for Nico.
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So between the natural brain drain that occurred over the last two offseasons and now this, Houston is now down 4 or 5 if the half dozen people most responsible for their success the last few years. Yikes.
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The Rays also got back a very underrated Randy Arozarena, who has ML ready CF potential to go with a well rounded high OBP bat in the minors. He came up and made some loud contact at the ML level to close the season. Liberatore's a quality SP prospect but years away after a non-dominant A ball season that included a back injury. If anything I'd count more on whoever the Cubs trade getting elevated while alot of the Lindor headlines will rehash/reignite the two year window talk For some reason I still believe in the Phillies' fit for both Quintana and Almora, would love Pivetta or Ranger Suarez or both or one plus LHP David Parkinson...Something like that He's a 25 year old who didn't hit until juiced ball 2019. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/randy-arozarena/19290/stats?position=OF He's hit at every stop of his career except his first crack at AAA
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The Rays also got back a very underrated Randy Arozarena, who has ML ready CF potential to go with a well rounded high OBP bat in the minors. He came up and made some loud contact at the ML level to close the season. Liberatore's a quality SP prospect but years away after a non-dominant A ball season that included a back injury. If anything I'd count more on whoever the Cubs trade getting elevated while alot of the Lindor headlines will rehash/reignite the two year window talk You're clearly much higher on him than I am. For me he's a likely 4th OFer with an upside of David DeJesus. Eric Longanhagen just said yesterday that he's likely to be a top 100 guy on their list.
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NL Central: Reds, Pirates and others
Bertz replied to Hairyducked Idiot's topic in General Baseball Talk
If he wins that I think the Over/Under on number of seasons Hader has left in Milwaukee is 1.5 -
After all of this, payroll for 2020 looks to be just under 210. Maybe climbing another million or two depending on how those split contracts work out and if the team is generous to pre-arb guys like Happ. The LT line is $208M for this year. For 2021, I'm showing just under $200M if they keep Lester ($185M if they don't). That's a fuzzier number though as arb estimates a year out are obviously going to be inexact.
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KB was a Super 2, so he's going through his 3rd arb with a 4th on deck for next year. If his time weren't manipulated, he'd be going for a 3rd and final time. So he didn't lose a year of arb, but I do think the player comps used to determine his salary would have changed, likely for the more expensive. So in the event he were to win I imagine that there would be some sort of $ component in addition to the earlier FA.
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Here are the MLBTR arb projections for the Cubs: Kris Bryant (4.171) – $18.5MM Javier Baez (4.089) – $9.3MM Kyle Schwarber (4.086) – $8.0MM Willson Contreras (3.108) – $4.5MM Albert Almora (3.073) – $1.8MM Kyle Ryan (2.139) – $1.1MM Total - $43.2M I'm seeing the team as $2-3M over the tax line at these figures, so I think today is going to determine whether or not the FO will look to cut salary another way in the event that they do end up holding on to KB.
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Doesn't move the needle much either way. Like TT said Liberatore is a nice prospect, but nothing crazy, and then Martinez and Arozarena are nice complimentary guys who fit a little better in Tampa.
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It's weird that we don't know anything else about this trade yet, over an hour later. Derrick Goold chimed in that the Rays like Tyler O'Neil, but that's all I've seen. I'm worried that it's some giant 3 team trade.
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Not to speak for Tim but I'd say plurality. Fangraphs has the Cubs at 40 projected WAR (an ~88 win team), the Brewers at 36, Cards at 35, Reds at 32 (without Akiyama yet, so let's say 34), and Pirates at 30. I'd guess in division champ odds that equates to something along the lines of 30/22/20/18/10.
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Sharma/Mooney with an article on the Athletic this morning. Not a ton of info, mostly just reprinting quotes from Theo and Jed (the Mooney special), but a few things stood out: - Sounds like the chances of a Schwarber deal are higher than we think - Contreras is probably starting the season on the team, but could very well be moved at the deadline if the team disappoints; the FO really likes Caratini - 2B is the area the team is most explicitly listed as needing an upgrade. They sound cautiously optimistic about Ian Happ as the opening day CF
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So in the event of a Willy trade that leaves Russell Martin as the only remotely decent FA catcher left? Or am I forgetting someone? Yup. It's Martin, and then a very large gap, and then Matt Wieters. And then from what I can see not a single other option that projects to even a .300+ OBP. Brutal. I'm guessing the Willy ship has sailed.
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Yeah I think given the past few CBAs the players will do something that superficially sounds good but ultimately makes things worse. My guess is that they bump up the number quite a bit, but the penalties, even for first time offenders, become far more severe and it function like a hard cap.
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Passan bringing up the Bryant/Arenado switcheroo https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28430628/mlb-superstar-trades-sign-stealing-punishment-more-passan-answers-20-questions-2020 So I read that as essentially KB for Prospects, and then Willson and Heyward for Arenado. Sounds unlikely obviously, but if Passan is saying it then it's not completely out of nowhere.
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I'd guess half the league is doing some variation of what Ken describes the Red Sox doing. The Sox will get hammered for being repeat offenders though.
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In a sane world, this us simply a guy to push on Kemp and Descalso, with the idea being that there is one bench spot available that the three of them are competing for (maybe two while Nico opens the year in the minors?). But who horsefeathering knows at this point.