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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Not the primary thrust of this article, but good lord these ZiPS projections for PCA. ZiPS has Ohtani and Witt at around 32 WAR over the next five years, PCA and McGonigle at 30, and then a sizable gap before you hit Wood/Caminero/etc. around 25.
  2. Bertz
    I understand that it's the time if year to maintain a high price in case someone blinks. But if the Twins honestly think they're going to get a package of Shaw and either Rojas or Hartshorn, much less something noticeably better than that, they're hilariously delusional. Even with the price premium for the deadline they're simply not going to out kick the Gore/Cabrera/Baz deals to that degree. Detmers has been my guy for a while though, so I'm loving all this smoke around the Angels the last few days. And if they like Rojas all the better. Love Rojas as a prospect, but his path to a full time job with the Cubs is fraught. Combining two largely expendable pieces to address our SP hole would be a slam dunk. Of the rentals/guys to settle on I like Peralta. It seems like his issue is part plain bad luck and part that he's dropped his arm angle and traded some whiffs for some grounders. The cure to the former is to simply get him away from the Mets. The arm angle thing I wonder if that's actually fixable on the fly in-season. Even if it's not though I trust Hottovy and this staff to shepherd him through working a little more east/west than he's used to. Been a Michael King fan the last few years and I know the FO is too, but that contract is Mariana Trench levels of underwater. Nooooooo thank you unless he's doubling as a way to make the prospect cost on Mason Miller more palatable.
  3. Bertz
    Among guys who have given up at least 10 dongs this year, this is the average those homeruns were hit. Taillon sits 33rd between Cristopher Sanchez (!!) and Tarik Skubal (!!!). Taillon has gotten very unlucky this year. The problem is that he's also pitched poorly, and then gotten unlucky on top of that. It's the same reasons that despite his 3.68 ERA last year Taillon was viewed as a #5 starter that ideally we'd find a way to replace. You can't just choose whether you look at the ERA or the peripherals depending on which tells a worse story.
  4. Bertz
    A pitcher is, broadly speaking, not doing anything different to determine whether a ball in the air is hit 300 or 400 or 500 feet
  5. Bertz
    There was an Athletic article in the last week or so that said the Cubs are a little more willing to deal some pitching at the deadline than they have been recently given the way the draft fell and some of the breakouts. I don't necessarily want to deal any pitching, but selling high on McGwire would not be the worst idea.
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    For sure. I mean he averaged 97.7 in his cup of coffee at Iowa last year so there's a lot of velo missing. The question is just how much of this can be blamed on the fact that from his arm's perspective it's essentially early April vs. anything permanent.
  8. Bertz
    Wiggins' fastball got as high as 97.4 and as low as 92.8. Feels like he was pretty clearly battling his mechanics and that probably impacted both the command and the velo. The run environment at Iowa is brutal on your best days, much less when you're trying to work your way back through rust like this. I'd send him to Knoxville for 3-4 starts.
  9. Bertz
    I thought he looked great that inning up through the "triple", but then whether due frustration/mechanics/being terrified of Acuna he completely lost the zone
  10. Bertz
    He is all over the place so mechanics are just as likely an explanation as any I guess
  11. Bertz
    Not loving Wiggins's velo
  12. Bertz
    I am super curious how he's valued. If he was 23 instead of 25 he's a top 10 prospect in the sport. With his age he is and should be discounted, but how far we talking? Fringe top 100 guy? 10th in an average farm system? Less? More? I feel like I have a pretty decent read on what a Mo-led deal for Detmers or Soriano looks like: Mo, a nice second piece like Alcantara or Kepley, and a 3rd piece that's boom/bust and further away from the majors (think like Mule or Lovich). But Ayers? I'm not even positive if he'd be the first or second guy in the deal.
  13. Bertz
    They really need help against LHP (87 wRC+ as a team). Raley and Young have good overall numbers but huge platoon splits, and yeah Emerson's just generally not ready. And for whatever questions there are still about Shaw's bat I think he's looking like at minimum a lefty masher. I'd think the M's would want to go as far as getting Shaw AND another trade for a guy like Lane Thomas.
  14. Bertz
    Not Cubs related but further evidence the Angels are willing to play ball
  15. Bertz
    I really like Longenhagen but it's striking to read his stuff because he's very critical on the specifics and then you look at the overall grade and it's like the 8th best prospect in baseball. Huge departure from every other outlet. Reminds me of this PFT as Werner Herzog
  16. Bertz
    LFG! With Rosenthal mentioning names that specific it's not an accident. Hancock has not been on my radar but him for Shaw feels like it'd be pretty close to an even split. And it's pretty out there that the M's are looking to trade an arm for a bat with all six guys healthy and Anderson coming up fast The Angels looking at catching is great too. Moving one of Mo or Ayers is one of the more logical ways to get where we wanna go.
  17. Bertz
    Triantos' star has dimmed but he's still a legit prospect. Probably tracking towards more of a bench role than a starters role, but at the same time he's just 23 so don't say that with too much certainty. The big question is why now? Is this about swapping him and Alcantara? Is there an injury? A trade?
  18. Bertz
    There was an article last year where they talked about the team wanting to call guys up and just let them hang out and get comfortable even if they mostly ride the pine. The dogshit performance of last year's bench kind of scuttled that but I think we're seeing some this year. Triantos could be up for a reason but it could just be vibes.
  19. Bertz
    Why are they for sure going to be worse next year?
  20. Bertz
    Good for him! Given the way Alcantara's been used James is probably a bit better of a roster fit in Shaw's absence. Choosing to assume this is not because of a secret injury.
  21. Bertz
    Is this a "if you're not first you're last sort of thing" where winning 90-something games a year somehow sucks actually?
  22. Bertz
    They literally developed the 24 year old MVP candidate you're proposing trading?
  23. Bertz
    Robbie Ray is the clear "one of these things is not like the others" on this list. Though I do sort of wonder if you could get him at least back to 2025 form by dropping the sinker and just focusing on the 4 seamer. I like seeing Soriano and Detmers on there too. I know Sharma's as much an analyst as he is a journalist but I think if the Angels weren't playing ball in conversations with those guys Sahadev would have gotten that feedback and they'd have been ommitted from the article in the same way Logan Webb was.
  24. Bertz
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7459011/2026/07/23/mlb-prospects-ranking-top-70-kade-anderson-jesus-made/ KLaw's mid-season update. Hartshorn #38 and Rojas #62
  25. Bertz
    Also I'll plant my flag that I'm not especially worried about Cabrera. His problem has mostly been dongs and he would not be the first guy to come here and struggle his first half season due to a dong problem. And the velo drop from early in the season, the thing that had me most legitimately nervous, got resolved during his first IL trip with the blister (whether or not that was the cause who knows).
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