Bertz

If McCann is getting 4 years Willson is worth a stupid high amount in trade

On a pure on-field standpoint I think this is more of a headscratcher than Schwarber. Like I know he slumped in the latter part of the year but come on. Relatedly, I thought this was a pretty compelling defense of holding onto Winkler:

I wish the market lent itself to this more. This was already a good defensive team last year. Bring in a real CFer and shift Happ to left and it could be elite.

Alberto makes a ton of contact, and absolutely murders lefties. He'd be a real solid bench option, though maybe doesn't make sense on a roster that already has Bote and Hoerner.

Robert stock is a fun guy to have in the mix for the 7th/8th spots in the pen. Really high octane stuff, though he's got problems throwing strikes.

Thus far, Jose Martinez has been NT'd, and the Cubs picked up Robert Stock from Boston

The only meaningful difference between Caratini each season is HR/FB rate, which is incredibly noisy. And given he is a part time player, that's going to be particularly noticeable. The safe assumption is that he's basically the guy from his three year averages. That's fairly unexciting, but is an above average hitter for a catcher. Combine that with modestly above average framing, and he'd be a decent starting caliber C IMO.

Good is probably a strong word for the SP market, but certainly much less bad than expected. At least so far.

While I like the idea in a vacuum, unfortunately Urena probably only makes sense if we trade a starter. None of him, Mills or Alzolay have options next year (I think, I know there was some iffiness on whether Alzolay would get a 4th). Given that all three would have pretty big questions on their expected performance, I would hate to be locked into keeping all three on the roster. My #1 choice would be to go get Gray from Colorado. Given that he shows up on all of the potential non-tender lists, it seems pretty clear that he's in the Schwarber zone where even if he's not cut his trade cost will be minimal. I would gladly give up someone from the back half of the Top 30 to bring him in. He seems to be by far the most likely guy to pull a Gausman next season. Gray makes sense no matter what level of tearing it down is occurrs this winter.

Well then

Minor was my preferred safe but unexciting rotation option. Curious what he netted salary-wise

This is going to continue to be a very slow offseason, but we might get a burst of activity this week. I think if Schwarber goes anywhere this offseason it'll be pre-deadline. And this week is probably the most likely time for KB to go too, though it if he's still here on Thursday I don't think it changes the odds of a trade all that drastically.

Hoffman's always been a guy people think will pop after leaving the Rockies, but this still seems most likely to be a fairly nothing trade

I think too, now that the cat is out of the bag with tanking and it's less of an...this is probably not the best choice of words...innovative strategy, I'm not sure that it nets you out that much better than a soft rebuild or a re-tool or whatever. The Phillies have clearly botched their rebuild. The White Sox are set up well, but don't look primed to reach super team status at any point. The Braves are awesome because of Acuna and Albies, who were non-premium IFAs they could have gotten regardless of whether they bottomed out. Yankees didn't tear it down. Dodgers didn't. Etc. The difference between a regular good team and a super team is basically one additional star. You have a better chance of netting that guy by selling more pieces sure, but we're blessed with being in a payroll tier where more reliably you can just go buy that guy when the time is right.

Kiley suggests the Rays for Bryant, though TBF it's in more of a dot-connecty than rumor-y way: Also seems notable that they need catching and we're almost certain to deal a catcher this winter

I don't have a problem tearing it down to the studs, but I think because of the lack of quality in our division you don't necessarily *have* to. You certainly need to make a trade or two that hurts, trading like Kimbrel and Schwarber does nothing. I think Darvish and Hendricks would each bring in Quintana-esque returns, but moving them wouldn't be my Plan A. Maybe I'm naive but I'm hoping to do more of a retool than a rebuild. I've said it a couple times, but I think if you do still want to compete Bryant and Contreras is the path to go. We have high quality backups for each, while Bryant opens up funds to use in FA and Contreras brings in legitimate star power on the prospect front. I hate getting too bogged down on specific names, but something like Contreras to the Marlins for Bleday, Rogers, and another top 20 guy? A Contreras trade likely ends up really moving the needle on the farm system. Bryant's much harder to value, maybe to the Giants for Mauricio Dubon? That might require a few more names to balance it out. Also, on just a pure cold numbers front, trading Javy makes some sense. If you backfilled him with Andrelton Simmons, you're not losing much if anything on defense and you're probably knocking out 100 strikeouts. That's something that will be felt at the team level. That said, I have a more visceral reaction to moving Javy than any of the other position players except for Rizzo.

Yeah it really sounds like this is gonna happen. Interestingly though, it sounds like they're open to moving pitching, but not necessarily pushing for it. If you combine these last few national reports with what we've heard from the local guys, my sense is that they aren't under directive to cut additional payroll, but that they're already near their (PTR imposed) cap. So in order to do anything beyond a couple of split contracts, they need to move salary.

Yeah, Sharma's article from yesterday indicated that Kantrovitz and/or Craig Breslow are due to get promoted, and they're looking at Porter or Amiel Sawdaye from Arizona as outside hires. Sawdaye, for people who don't know, was under Theo and Jed back in Boston. Porter seems the most likely. I wish they could poach Josh Byrnes from the Dodgers but I'm not sure the Cubs GM position is even a lateral move for him (he's a VP of Baseball Operations and the Dodgers haven't had a formal GM since Farhan Zaidi left for San Francisco). Byrnes did work closely with Theo and Jed in Boston. Yeah, if I had my pick I'd choose someone fresh, and not from the Theo management tree. I know Byrnes is, but he's been away from the nest much longer between the time he was on his own with the Dbacks the last several years with the Dodgers.

Yeah, Sharma's article from yesterday indicated that Kantrovitz and/or Craig Breslow are due to get promoted, and they're looking at Porter or Amiel Sawdaye from Arizona as outside hires. Sawdaye, for people who don't know, was under Theo and Jed back in Boston.

Nothing all that interesting on the Cubs front, but I thought this was a good team-by-team level setting exercise.

I've been thinking a lot about something like this. Obviously with Javy already in hand importing a full middle infield isn't necessary, but what about one of these guys plus Jackie Bradley Jr? Bryant probably has to go to make the money work, but think about something like: Happ (LF) Schwarber (DH) Contreras Rizzo Baez (2B) Heyward Bote Simmons (SS) Bradley (CF) That's an absurd defensive team, and honestly not necessarily a bad offensive one. Like it's probably not the offseason I would draw up, but I don't hate it.