Bertz

This article from Dan Szymborski (ZiPS creator) a few days ago has before/after projections for KB, Rizzo, and Baez (unfortunately no Schwarber) tl;dr is this year has been enough for the projection system to drop them each from very good to above average, not bury them completely. I'd imagine for Schwarber, who was merely above average before, he projects around average at this point. With each guy being on the eve of FA, and given the payroll cutbacks we're going to see around the league this offseason, I think they're all movable. KB and Javy probably have a bit of value, with Rizzo and Schwarber being breakeven-ish. I'd ammend my plan from a month ago slightly, given that I'm starting to think Hottovy is a miracle worker and it doesn't take as many resources as I thought to keep the pitching staff afloat. There were some rumblings that Happ is down for an extension. So I throw some money his way, trade Contreras for a pretty good haul, and I trade KB for whatever pitching I can get. I'd imagine he's worth something like another team's Alzolay at this point. Payroll at this point is somewhere in the $150Ms. I don't know what PTR is going to find in the couch cushions, but I'd think that leaves at least $40M to spend, probably closer to $60M. You need 2 starters and 2-3 bats, but for the bats you can be pretty position agnostic since Bote, Vic, and Nico mean every position is at least nominally filled. I'd do something like Jon Gray and Mike Minor on the pitching side, paired with Brantley, Semien, and Kiké Hernandez on the hitting end, but there's a million reasonable combinations.

I feel like we're discussing how unlucky the Cubs' offense is every year in some form or fashion. I'm not saying you're wrong, the numbers suggest you aren't, but I feel like there's got to be a different explanation for this. The Cubs' problems with this group have generally been related to sequencing: how does an offense with X OBP and Y SLG only score Z runs. It's happened enough that there's probably something there. My pet theory is a homegeniety in what kind of pitchers they feast/famine against, but it could be a million things (including dumb luck). This BABIP issue is more of a run of the mill bit of unluckiness. And it's happened to this group before, such as in the first half of 2017. The problem is that BABIP is the sort of thing that does usually mostly even out over a season, but doesn't normalize quite so fast enough that it smooths out by Memorial Day.

So, I don't want this to come off as a Leslie Nielsen everythingisfine.gif sort of thing, but there's a real BABIP component to that performance since 8/1. Since 8/1 the team wide BABIP is .271, 25th in the league. This comes despite being 10th in hard hit rate, 18th in barrel rate, 15th in exit velo. They hit the ball on the ground too much, but that's a dong killer not a BABIP killer. They should probably have a modestly-above-average BABIP. Give them even an average .295 BABIP, and the team suddenly has an ~average offense (their slash would look in line with the Cardinals). Being merely average for this long still sucks given the resources invested, but we'd be less in the existential crisis state of fandom.

This is sobering to say the least

Second tiebreaker is division record. - Cubs are at 22-16, with 2 left against the Pirates - Cards are at 19-16, with 5 left against the Brewers - Brewers are at 17-17, with 5 against the Cards and 1 against the Reds - Reds (though it doesn't matter for us) are at 20-19, with one against the Brewers So in the Cubs 0-5 scenario, if the Brewers tie it would go to the third tiebreaker, which is record in last 20 division games. I'm not going to calculate that, but I bet the Brewers have it, considering this scenario has them winning 5 of their last 6. In the Cubs 1-4 scenario, if that win is against the Pirates, then again it would go to the third tiebreaker again, but if that win is against the White Sox, I think the Brewers would pass us.

Based on what? He's been one of the better setup guys in the league the last few years. that's a bit generous. but it's not the last 2 years. he's been butt for both teams he's played for in 2020. i don't see what bringing him into a tie game is going to show you, even if he pitched a perfect inning. It's not, he's 40th in reliever WAR from 2017-2019. He's pitched 8.1 innings this year. And only one (scoreless) appearance for us. You're gonna weight that more than his 150 very good innings the last three years?

Unless you think we are going to lose out, and even then the Cardinals still need to win 5-6 of their final 9 games (Idk what the exact math is but that has to be close) it effectively is wrapped up. And with this playoff set up, now that we’re in to some degree, I’d rather they be trying some guys and different things out to maximize the playoff roster and decisions vs doing the right leverage moves to win games now. with the way they've finished the last 2 seasons, i'd rather they just try and close out the division before "trying stuff" and dicking around. i know there's no real advantage of winning the division in terms of the postseason, but it still means something. the odds are heavily in their favor, but 3.5 is not wrapped up, especially with all the games the cardinals have left. plus we don't need to see chafin in a tie game to know he sucks Based on what? He's been one of the better setup guys in the league the last few years.

Passan mentioned that in today's article. Sounds they will only be played if those games impact who is in or out, or who has home field in the first round (which would only matter if the Padres lose out). They won't be played purely for seeding. Edit: Did not see that this got mentioned already!

HUGE swing game for the playoff odds

Brett had a good point in his post this AM On paper the Phillies are one of the scariest potential opponents in the first round, but Nola either has to pitch on short rest one of his next two starts or be held back for a game 3. Add the injuries to their hitters and their laughably bad pen and maybe they're the opponent we should he rooting for.

If it's a table labeled "Really Stupid Ideas," sure, it's on it. Seriously. If you can get even a 3 win season from Bryant he’s underpaid at $22m. Sure he could continue to flame out and/or get hurt but it’s much more likely he’s a 3+ win player. Not to mention if he’s doing ok but not great you can get something for him at the deadline if you want. If you non-tender him he probably goes to the Cardinals and gives them an 8 win season KB is *probably* fine, but are you willing to bet ~1/8th of the payroll on it? In an offseason where we already have to fill 3 open rotation spots? It's likely all academic. I imagine, even with revenue down across the league, there'll be at least 2-3 teams happy to take that gamble. But personally if I'm going all out to win next year I think that money goes a lot further elsewhere.

Also do we really want to extend our 32 year old 1B who is showing plenty of his own decline? I certainly wouldn't extend him, but for Rizzo at least I can squint at his FG page and tell myself it's mostly BABIP. Of the four core guys he's the one I'm least worried about if we focus on just 2021.

Sobering question for next year: given that payroll is likely coming down, can you really justify tendering KB at his ~$22M?

Yeah I would love to see if a Q-Alzolay piggyback could work. SSS but Alzolay has been murder on righties. So teams would have to choose if they want to load their lineup with righties even though Q's only going 3-4 innings.

Bears >50/50 to make the playoffs now. They're not a good team (currently 19th in DVOA, and that's not schedule adjusted), but two banked wins are two banked wins.

Yeah, the issue is more of opportunity cost than what we gave up IMO. Eloy is looking like a DH who doesn't walk and Cease is looking like he needs to move to the pen. Nice players, maybe even good, but far from being stars. If Q had stayed good in 2018 I'd have 0 issue with the trade.

The division is wrapped up within all reason, it's time to put preparing for the playoffs ahead of winning games. Part one of that is seeing if Kimbrel still has it when the pressure is on. Part two will be getting Chafin and Q as many innings as possible. Ah. I didn't consider the "this game doesn't matter, we need to see...how Kimbrel does in high leverage situations" slant. That's completely counter intuitive, to be generous, but I get what you are saying. I mean also in September Jeffress had a FIP over 5 coming into this appesrance and Kimbrel has struck out so many guys that his is literally negative, so I think he gave us the best chance of winning last night as well.

Really? You seem way way more confident about that than I think anyone can reasonably pretend to be. The division is wrapped up within all reason, it's time to put preparing for the playoffs ahead of winning games. Part one of that is seeing if Kimbrel still has it when the pressure is on. Part two will be getting Chafin and Q as many innings as possible.

I'm sure it's a tough convo to take the closer's job away from a guy with a sub-2 ERA, but man I don't know how you can justify Jeffress holding onto the closer's role. Kimbrel really should have gotten a chance out there tonight.

Between a ton of non tenders in addition to normal churn, this winter will have a lot of upside arms available. Depending on your thoughts on Mills we have either two or three open rotation spots. Love what Lester has done for this franchise, but I have no interest in having him back unless he miraculously finds 2-3 MPH under his pillow like Kershaw did this winter. He's neither safe nor an upside play. I think way to go is probably something like: - Trade for a pretty good #3 (Jon Gray?) - Sign a vet who had a bad 2020 to a pillow contract (Kluber, Quintana, Minor, Ray, etc.) - Battle Royale between Mills, Alzolay, et al Although who the hell know how much money is going to be available to the FO. Is even something as modest as the above going to be an option? Yeah, unfortunately, I don’t see it making a lot of sense to bring Lester back. I think they’re definitely staying under the LT. Which would give them about ~$25 mil to spend and stay under iirc. I think they almost certainly do the vet signing you mentioned (Q, Ray, Minor, etc). I think using resources to trade for a SP is unlikely and if we trade for a SP it will come via the return in a KB, Willy, etc trade. Q, Desclafani, Ray and Garrett Richards are some of the main/realistic FA options for me. Wouldn’t mind signing 2 of those and then having Mills/Adbert battle for the 5th spot with Abbott, Thompson, Brailyn, etc potentiality being mid-late season rotation options. I think the non tender deadline is going to be enough of a bloodbath that even a guy like Gray will be borderline. Agreed they're definitely not trading any of the upper crust of prospects.

Between a ton of non tenders in addition to normal churn, this winter will have a lot of upside arms available. Depending on your thoughts on Mills we have either two or three open rotation spots. Love what Lester has done for this franchise, but I have no interest in having him back unless he miraculously finds 2-3 MPH under his pillow like Kershaw did this winter. He's neither safe nor an upside play. I think way to go is probably something like: - Trade for a pretty good #3 (Jon Gray?) - Sign a vet who had a bad 2020 to a pillow contract (Kluber, Quintana, Minor, Ray, etc.) - Battle Royale between Mills, Alzolay, et al Although who the hell know how much money is going to be available to the FO. Is even something as modest as the above going to be an option?

It's deep too, which is important with the no offdays playoffs this year. In that context I'd rather have 6-7 good relievers than 2-3 awesome relievers. And for Game 3 of the Wildcard round I'd lean on the pen. Give Lester (or hopefully Q by then?) three innings and then go with the parade of relievers.